Weekend Winners Club

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May 6 2021.  If there’s one lesson you should really heed, it’s this one.  In this edition of the Kentucky Derby Lessons, we shall cover the major prep races leading up to the Derby, and their inherent relativism.  We will focus on the Bob Baffert Era which began in 1997 when he won the Kentucky Derby in two consecutive years.  

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Earlier today: Kentucky Oaks Precap

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Obviously, the final prep race for these contestants is important to tune up for the Derby, but it is also a very important factor in determining if they can actually win the big one. It may not surprise you that last year’s Derby winner was 2^nd in his final race, and the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners ALL won their final prep.

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Let’s just some up the results with some numbers and percentages.

In the 25 race span from 1997-2021, the Kentucky Derby winner has won their final prep 64% of the time, and another 28% were runners up in their final prep, making it an astounding 92% that were top 2 in their final prep.  Only 2 winners weren’t top 2; they finished 4^th in their final prep.  

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NO Derby winner was worse than 4^th in their final prep, and in fact only one Derby runner up, last year’s Mandaloun, was worse than 4^th in their last race before running for the roses.

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In only 4 of the 25 races (16%), was the final prep for the winner NOT a Big 6 Prep.  To define that, it’s one of the 6 Grade 1 or 2 races leading up to the Derby.  In modern terms since the point system was invented, it’s a Derby race worth 100 points (or more) leading up to the Run for the Roses.  Take a look:

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(Note: for 2020, we substituted the races to applicable preps leading up to the Derby, including the the Belmont, Travers, and Haskell.  The usual Big 6 races were either cancelled or run several months beforehand rather than within the last 2 months.  Things returned to normal in 2021.)

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This grid also shows that the Ky Derby runner up also finished 1 or 2 in their final prep the vast majority of the time.  78% of the horses running 1 and 2 in the Kentucky Derby also ran 1 or 2 in their final prep, and in 84% of the races, their final prep was a Big 6 race.

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Thus, a major predictor of a winner or runner up finish in the Kentucky Derby, is that they finished 1^st or 2^nd in their final Prep, and the value increases if it was a Big 6 prep, which is why it is a critical criteria in the Derby Grid and also in any serious attempting to predict a Derby champ.

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Note that 11 of the 12 this year are participants in the run for the roses, so we already narrowed the field down by about half just in this exercise.  In a previous Derby Lesson about performance figures, and with another about trainers and jockeys, we narrowed it down further. 

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Grades for each of these categories will be aggregated and displayed in tomorrow Derby for Dummies guide which includes a chart with total scores.  Previous Derby for Dummies have done very well.   There will be one more lesson before that is issued so stay tuned.

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To get the full Kentucky Derby Grid with over 80 historical, pedigree, and critical criteria, or the full Derby day Grid, click here.

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Friday May 6 2022.  Churchill Downs kicks off Derby weekend with 7 graded stakes today, highlighted by the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks wherein 14 brilliant 3yo fillies will run for a measly $1.25 million purse.  Most of the 13 race card is for fillies and mares on Ladies Day.

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Racing began at 10:30am, that’s right in the morning, with a 3yo filly claiming race. Stakes racing begins with race 5 at 12:43pm, with 6 graded stakes races leading up the Oaks, scheduled for 5:51pm. 

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Weather is pleasant and cloudy for now but with an increasing strong chance of rain and storms in the late afternoon and evening.  We’ll hope for the best but keep your mudders in mind, and especially if their mudder was a mudder.

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So far today the EP rating in the Grid has been working well on dirt, even though some of the winners are coming from off the pace.  Here’s the current results and outlook including long shot specials (LSS).

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Race 1: top 3 in EP finished 1 2 and 4.

Race 2: top 3 in EP finished 2 1 and 3, with the winner being a nice 10-1 long shot.

Race 3 and 4 were won by obvious favorites that were top in power, LP , etc in the Grid.

Race 5 on turf was ruled by the top LP’s, at 1-1, 5-2. 7-1, and 33-1 in 4^th.   

Race 6:  3 is 2^nd LP is 12-1 on the ML.  Top LP by far is 6-1 Battle Bling who is also 4 rules and best PF.

Race 7: Another top EP special for you is 2 at 5-1.

Race 8: Lone frontrunner #2 at 10-1 ML.  Best PF last out #1 at 20-1 switching to turf from poly. LSS!

Race 9:  Best PF at this distance is tie with the favorite and 9 at 15-1 cutting back to one turn.

Race 10:  Long shots I like are 6 and 11 at 10-1 each and 12 at 12-1 ML.

Race 11:  The Oaks.  On paper, with 3 E8’s and an EP7, the upfront pace should be somewhat torrid. Can the speed hold up?  If it does you have the E8’s at 30-1, 4-1, and 20-1.  If not, the two late running favorites will be happy to scoop up the prize.  But there are other long shots to consider.

2 Nostalgic 15-1 was the Gazelle G3 winner with 2^nd best PF at 15-1 ML.

9 Desert Dawn 20-1 won the SA Oaks G2 giving her the best PF last race out and 4 rules alert.

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Here’s a look at the Oaks Grid the way I look at it with some interesting things highlighted.  Open in a new tab to enlarge.

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There are two more races after the oaks.

Race 12:  I like 4 and 5 to make some noise at 6-1 and 8-1.

Race 13:  The speedster 10 is at 8-1 despite having the top power rating and LP in the Grid.

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You can get the full Grids for Oaks day and Derby day right here for one low price.  That’s every race complete with EP , Power, LP, etc just as you see above, with comments in all those boxes you see with red markers in the corner.

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Also, stay tuned for more Derby lessons because there are more coming out today, and then Derby for Dummies guide that will be issued on Saturday.

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Good luck!

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May 5, 2022.  You’ve heard it over and again, that pace makes the race.  It is true to some varying extent in every race.  It’s obviously not the only factor of course, and the Kentucky Derby is a much different type of race than most run in North America. It’s 10f on dirt with 20 horses in the gate.

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The pace scenario can be estimated using the Running Styles and Quirin Speed points, but it can vary sometimes wildly from what is predicted.  Therefore we must make an educated guess as to how the race will unfold. 

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For this exercise we will use the subsections of the Kentucky Derby Grid concerning the running styles and speed points, and as a bonus the composites of early and late pace.  Take a look. Open pic in new tab to enlarge.

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What you always do first is look at who exhibits early speed the most using the ST column.  8 is the earliest runner and 0 being the latest possible runner, normally a plodder.   You can see right away that we have a good deal of early speed scheduled.  

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There are three E/EP8’s, 3 E/EP7’s, and 4 EP6’s.  In fact, I can make a case for Charge It being a EP7 or E8 as well, because he hit the gate last out which is likely the only reason he didn’t have the lead at 1C. 

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The E style means that horse wants to go to the lead and if he doesn’t get the lead, he won’t win, and normally doesn’t win at longer distances anyway.  Classic Causeway and Summer is Tomorrow are such horses. 

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Others in this group of 10 early runners have show the ability to not actually set the pace, then make a move or attempt to later.  The only 8 that I would say can actually win the roses is Messier, because he could rate just off the pace a bit and still win.  The other 8’s usually fade.

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However, on paper this has to be considered a hotly contested pace, meaning that most of these early/front runners could burn it up on the front end and flame out.  This could open up good opportunities for those who run in mid pack or towards the rear.

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Mo Donegal is one that has shown repeated ability to run from behind with a good closing move, as evidenced by his sweeping Wood G1 win and top LP rating.   Zandon has 2^nd best LP and has a similar running style, enabling him to take the Blue Grass G1 last out. That’s why he’s the ML favorite.

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A fast pace could also benefit the other P and S type runners if they can sustain a good late pace over this distance.  Barber Road, for example with unimpressive PF’s, found himself in the top 2 or 3 at the wire in 5 consecutive stakes races.  Smile Happy wasn’t far behind in 2^nd in his preps this year.

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At least one of the plodders will finish in the top 4 and probably two of them.  When looking for a good true long shot to fill in the superfecta, which almost always happens, you can use a strong late runner to fill that bill, because that’s usually the horse that does it.

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Those who had a strong final ¼ mile in their final prep race, or in another previous race for that matter, are usually good suspects to make a late run.  As luck would have it, you’ve been provided final ¼ times in the last prep race for each horse.  Anything less than 25 seconds is considered strong in that column.

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The full Kentucky Derby Grid has all this and dozens of other performance and historical items to factor in.  You should definitely check it out if you haven’t before, but stay tuned for more Derby Lessons on Friday and Saturday, because those are all free and if you pay attention you might learn something.

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May 5 2022.  The Derby Lesson Series continues with issue 22-02 regarding the jockey and trainer connections and what kind of impact they have on a Kentucky Derby performance.  First let’s take a look at an extraction from our Triple Crown Master Database.

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You may not be surprised to find many repeat offenders in the jockey and trainer columns.  For example, the names John Velazquez, Victor Espinoza, Bob Baffert, and Todd Pletcher appear a lot.  

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In fact, by far a majority of Kentucky Derby editions in the past 25 years have been jockey or trainer repeats. You might also be surprised to see that Wayne Lukas trained his first of many Derby champions 34 years ago, and in fact has a horse in the 2022 edition.

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What does it all mean?  Is it because these jockeys and trainers are better than everyone, or do they just get the best horses to enter?  It’s the age old chicken and egg question.  The truth is that it’s a combination of the above.  They get the best horses to train and ride because they’re at the top of the profession.

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The great thing about the Derby Grid is that it has all this information, and much more, in it.  For example you’ll see in this extraction of data from the spreadsheet version of the Grid, little markers in the corners of the cells.  When you click or hover on the cell, you see additional embedded information.

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For example, the horse name cell contains the horses’ owner, silks colors, date of birth, lifetime record and earnings.  The Sire column comments include the grandsire, dam, and damsire, and who and where the horse was bred. 

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The trainer and jockey cells in the Derby Grid contain the Triple Crown race record of each.  Let’s see what this looks like when expanded.

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For the purposes of this exercise, we are treating the Yakteen trainees as Baffert trainees, for very legitimate reasons.  They were issued to Baffert for training to begin with because they are high class horses.  But Baffert had to transfer them to his former assistant trainer (or somebody else he trusts) in order to even earn Kentucky Derby points, because the Derby organization has him suspended.

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Interestingly enough, the rules of the suspension do not preclude the two trainers from talking to each other, over the phone or in person, or even going out to Jeff Ruby Steaks and enjoying some great food and drink.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see them there this week, but I guarantee they’re talking daily.

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To emphasize the best thoroughbred trainer in history getting the best horses, consider that Taiba was a whopping $1.7 million dollar yearling at auction, almost 4 times the next nearest auction price, which was stablemate Messier.  Taiba has lived up to it so far, taking the Santa Anita Derby in his second career race, leaving Messier and others in the dust.

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There’s a lot of info to digest here, and I will be giving grades to these in the final lesson Derby for Dummies. But I can guarantee you two things:  The 2 trainers and 2 jockeys that have never Run for the Roses, won’t touch any purse money.  And the winner will be a repeat trainer and/or jockey.

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The Kentucky Derby Grid has all of this information and more than 80 historical and performance factors, and final rankings on such if you desire. Or you can just stay tuned to Derby Lessons, get most of the information, and await the Derby for Dummies on Saturday if I can even get to it.  3-4 more lessons need to be crammed in before that.

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May 3, 2022.  Performance figures can be used to handicap any race, including the Kentucky Derby, so why not use them this weekend?  No good reason I can think of. Of course, there are many other methods, criteria and qualifications to win The Derby.  Which is why you should get the Derby Grid.

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Get the Full Kentucky Derby Grid here with over 80 historical and critical performance criteria.

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But PF’s are by far the most popular way to cap any race. What if you were to get the average of 4 of the leading speed figures (including the PF’s from the Grid) for each of the past 4 races for each contender?  That would be nice.  Then maybe you could also average those after dropping the lowest of the past 4.

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Well in fact, that’s just what’s done for you here below.  You’re welcome.

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See any major overlays there? I see one glaring one whose name starts with a T and won the Santa Anita Derby. I see another one whose name starts with an M who has very similar criteria coming out of Santa Anita.  Could those two sweep the Derby exacta also?

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The prevailing PF’s all seem to agree that those two have the best pair of PF’s in the last 2 races. They also seem to agree that the Wood performance by Mo Donegal was very solid.  Others with triple digit average PF’s like Epicenter and Zozos appear to be legit.

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Wait, what are all these colors and what does bold mean?  There’s a free Grid learning page here just for those type of questions. http://www.horseracebetwin.com/picks/learning/  Remember, there’s no such thing as a stupid question, just stupid people who ask questions.

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In short for this exercise, Bold means within ½ furlong of the Derby distance, which is 10f, or 1 ¼ mile for those of you who don’t speak horse racing. Blue means artificial / polytrack surface.  For example, I have a hard time making a case for Tiz the Bomb until I see him post that triple digit on dirt.

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And by the way, what’s wrong with a Asmussen/Baffert/Pletcher exacta and trifecta box anyway?  Sounds good to me. Oh, you say Baffert doesn’t have any trainees in the race.  You just proved how ignorant you are.  Don’t tell anyone you said that.

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Stay tuned for all of the free Derby Lesson series this week right here, they even have their own menu entry.

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Get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races every week right here.

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Saturday April 30.  Churchill Downs begins its legendary summer meet this weekend, just one week out from the Kentucky Derby.  The meet will last until July 4 and feature over 50 stakes races.  The track will be charted out this weekend in preparation for the big Derby weekend.

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Get the full 2022 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria! 

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So it’s Saturday night and you’re still hanging around, tired of living in your one horse town? Take a virtual trip to Louisville, a town with hundreds of horses racing every week.  Racing today begins at 6PM ET with the final race scheduled for 10:42PM so you’ll have great entertainment all night.

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Weather in Louisville is warm and cloudy, with a chance of thunderstorms increasing towards the end of the race schedule, so don’t be surprised if they start moving races up.  The first thing you’ll want to do is get today’s free Churchill Grid so you can make your picks. 

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The next thing you’ll want to do is to reference some of our long shot specials listed below to incorporate into your picks.

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R2 6:28ET 6f D Clm 8000 4 UP 

1 Deano 5-1

6 Benjamins 10-1

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R7 9:05ET 8.5f D Md 30000 3 UP 

9 Levee 8-1

11 Hold the Line 15-1

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R8 9:39ET 5.5f T OClm 62500n2x 3 UP FM

9 Spicy 8-1

12 Richies 12-1

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R9 10:11ET 6f D RoxelanaB160k 4 UP FM

3 horse race literally. Ugh

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R10 10:42ET 7f D Md 10000 3 UP 

8 Toddy 10-1

14 Me we 15-1

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Time to go work out your wagers. I wouldn’t bet any exotics on the 6 horse races but taking a good contender at 5-1 or more is always a good play.  The longer fields at the end of the card make it interesting.  Get your horseshoes on!

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You can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races, as well as the Kentucky Derby Grid, right here. So check out the options and good luck!

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The May 2022 Thoroughbred stakes racing schedule for the USA, Canada, and Japan is updated and ready. The epicenter of racing in the United Stakes of America will be Churchill Downs to begin the first full weekend of racing in May with the Kentucky Oaks and Derby.

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Get the full 2022 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria! 

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May 2022 Thoroughbred Stakes Racing Schedule for North America and JRA

Race	Track	Date	Pur$e	Age/Sex	Dist	Surf	Fee/Close
License Fee S	Bel	May01	$100K	4&up f/m	6f	Turf	Clsd Apr16
Campanile S	GG	May01	$75K	3yo f S	8f	Turf	Clsd Apr22
Silky Sullivan	GG	May01	$75K	3yo S	8f	Turf	Clsd Apr22
Tenno Sho Spring (G1T)	JRA	May01	$4,115K	4&up	16f	Turf	Clsd Mar8
Wilshire S (G3T)	SA	May01	$100K	3&up f/m	8f	Turf	Clsd Apr21
Woodstock S	WO	May01	$125K	3yo	6f	AW	Clsd Apr13
Wilma Mankiller S	WRD	May02	$50K	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Clsd Apr20
Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnight S	CD	May03	$160K	4&up	12f	Dirt	Clsd Apr16
Highland Ice S	WRD	May03	$50K	3&up	6f	Dirt	Clsd Apr21
William Walker	CD	May04	$200K	3yo	5.5f	Turf	Clsd Apr16
St. Matthews	CD	May04	$160K	4&up R	6f	Dirt	Clsd Apr16
Kentucky Juvenile S	CD	May05	$200K	2yo	5f	Dirt	Clsd Apr16
Unbridled Sydney S	CD	May05	$200K	3&up f/m	5.5f	Turf	Clsd Apr16
Opening Verse Overnight S	CD	May05	$160K	4&up	8f	Turf	Clsd Apr16
Flat Out	Bel	May06	$100K	4&up	11f	Dirt	Clsd Apr23
Daryl E. Parker Memorial/Tall Stack S	BTP	May06	$75K	3yo S	6.5f	Dirt	Clsd Apr26
Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1)	CD	May06	$1,250K	3yo f	9f	Dirt	Clsd Apr16
La Troienne S (G1)	CD	May06	$750K	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Clsd Apr16
Alysheba S Presented by Sentient Jet (G2)	CD	May06	$500K	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	Clsd Apr16
Edgewood S Presented by Forcht Bank (G2T)	CD	May06	$500K	3yo f	8.5f	Turf	Clsd Apr16
Eight Belles S (G2)	CD	May06	$500K	3yo f	7f	Dirt	Clsd Apr16
Twin Spires Turf Sprint Presented by Sysco (G2T)	CD	May06	$500K	3&up	5.5f	Turf	Clsd Apr16
Modesty S (G3T)	CD	May06	$250K	4&up f/m	9f	Turf	Clsd Apr16
Evangeline Downs Distaff	EvD	May06	$60K	4&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Clsd Apr22
Natural State Breeders' S	OP	May06	$150K	3&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Clsd Apr22
Fort Marcy S (G2T)	Bel	May07	$200K	4&up	9f	Turf	Clsd Apr23
Sheepshead Bay S (G2T)	Bel	May07	$200K	4&up f/m	11f	Turf	Clsd Apr23
Westchester S (G3)	Bel	May07	$200K	4&up	8f	Dirt	Clsd Apr23
Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1)	CD	May07	$3,000K	3yo	10f	Dirt	$200,000/May4
Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1T)	CD	May07	$1,000K	4&up	9f	Turf	Clsd Apr16
Churchill Downs Presented by Ford (G1)	CD	May07	$750K	4&up	7f	Dirt	Clsd Apr16
Derby City Distaff Presented by Kendall-Jackson Winery (G1)	CD	May07	$750K	4&up f/m	7f	Dirt	Clsd Apr16
American Turf (G2T)	CD	May07	$500K	3yo	8.5f	Turf	Clsd Apr16
Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2T)	CD	May07	$500K	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Clsd Apr16
Pat Day Mile Presented by LG&E and KU (G2)	CD	May07	$500K	3yo	8f	Dirt	Clsd Apr16
Knicks Go Overnight S	CD	May07	$160K	4&up R	8f	Dirt	Clsd Apr16
Evangeline Downs Classic	EvD	May07	$60K	4&up S	8f	Dirt	Clsd Apr22
Al Swihart Memorial S	Fon	May07	$20K	3&up f/m	6.5f	Dirt	$0/Apr30
Coors Starter	Fon	May07	$10K	4&up R	9f	Dirt	$0/Apr30
English Channel S	GP	May07	$75K	3yo	8f	Turf	Clsd Apr24
Honey Ryder S	GP	May07	$75K	3yo f	8f	Turf	Clsd Apr24
Virginia Gold Cup Timber	GrM	May07	$100K	5&up	32f	Turf	Clsd Apr25
David Semmes Memorial Hurdle (G2T)	GrM	May07	$75K	4&up	17f	Turf	Clsd Apr25
Four-Old Hurdle S	GrM	May07	$50K	4&up	17f	Turf	Clsd Apr25
Steeplethon S	GrM	May07	$30K	5&up	24f	Turf	Clsd Apr25
Third Chance S	Haw	May07	$75K	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	Clsd Apr23
Kyoto Shimbun Hai (G2T)	JRA	May07	$1,120K	3yo	11f	Turf	Clsd Mar22
Long Branch S	Mth	May07	$100K	3yo	8.32f	Dirt	Clsd Apr22
Arkansas Breeders' Championship	OP	May07	$200K	3&up S	8.5f	Dirt	Clsd Apr22
Senorita S (G3T)	SA	May07	$100K	3yo f	8f	Turf	$100/Apr28
Secretariat S	SON	May07	$20K	3&up	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Jack Cole S	SRP	May07	$100K	3&up S	6.5f	Dirt	$200/Apr29
Michael F. Rowland Memorial H	Tdn	May07	$75K	3&up S	6f	Dirt	Clsd Apr27
Hasta La Vista S	TuP	May07	$60K	3&up	15f	Turf	Not Available
Turf Paradise Open Spring Futurity	TuP	May07	$60K	2yo	5f	Dirt	Not Available
Ruffian (G2)	Bel	May08	$200K	4&up f/m	8f	Dirt	Clsd Apr23
Monroe S	GP	May08	$75K	3&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Clsd Apr24
NHK Mile Cup (G1T)	JRA	May08	$2,684K	3yo	8f	Turf	Clsd Mar22
Niigata Daishoten (G3T)	JRA	May08	$886K	4&up	10f	Turf	Clsd Mar22
Serena's Song S	Mth	May08	$100K	3&up f/m	8.32f	Dirt	Clsd Apr22
Lazaro Barrera S	SA	May08	$100K	3yo	6.5f	Dirt	$100/Apr28
Angels Flight S	SA	May08	$75K	3yo f	7f	Dirt	$0/Apr28
Merry-Go-Round Special S	SON	May08	$10K	3&up	7f	Dirt	Not Available
C.O. "Ken" Kendrick Memorial S	SRP	May08	$100K	2yo S	4.5f	Dirt	$200/Apr29
Whimsical S (G3)	WO	May08	$150K	4&up f/m	6f	AW	Clsd Apr20
J. William Petro Memorial H	Tdn	May12	$75K	3&up f/m S	8.5f	Dirt	$50/May2
Goldfinch S	PrM	May13	$50K	3yo f	6f	Dirt	$0/May3
Man o' War (G1T)	Bel	May14	$700K	4&up	11f	Turf	$700/Apr30
Peter Pan S (G3)	Bel	May14	$200K	3yo	9f	Dirt	$200/Apr30
Beaugay S (G3T)	Bel	May14	$150K	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	$150/Apr30
Runhappy S (G3)	Bel	May14	$150K	4&up	6f	Dirt	$150/Apr30
Vagrancy (G3)	Bel	May14	$150K	4&up f/m	6.5f	Dirt	$150/Apr30
Mamzelle Overnight S	CD	May14	$160K	3yo f	5f	Turf	$0/Apr30
Coin Collector S	CT	May14	$75K	3yo S	4.5f	Dirt	$50/May4
Roar S	GP	May14	$75K	3yo	5f	Turf	$0/May1
Robert S. Molaro S	Haw	May14	$75K	3&up S	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr30
Keio Hai Spring Cup (G2T)	JRA	May14	$1,221K	4&up	7f	Turf	Clsd Mar22
Spruce Fir H	Mth	May14	$85K	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr29
Calvin Houghland Iroquois (G1T)	PW	May14	$150K	4&up	24f	Turf	$500/May2
Green Pastures Hurdle	PW	May14	$75K	4&up R	18f	Turf	$250/May2
Margaret Currey Henley Hurdle S	PW	May14	$50K	4&up f/m	18f	Turf	$100/May2
Santa Barbara S (G3T)	SA	May14	$125K	3&up f/m	12f	Turf	$100/May5
SunRay Park S	SRP	May14	$75K	3&up	4.5f	Dirt	$200/May6
Gold Fever S	Bel	May15	$100K	3yo	6f	Dirt	$100/Apr30
Victoria Mile (G1T)	JRA	May15	$2,684K	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Clsd Mar22
John J. Reilly H	Mth	May15	$85K	3&up S	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr29
Jacques Cartier S (G3)	WO	May15	$150K	4&up	6f	AW	Clsd Apr27
10,000 Lakes S	Cby	May18	$50K	3&up S	6f	Dirt	$0/May4
Lady Slipper S	Cby	May18	$50K	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	$0/May4
Caesars S	Ind	May18	$150K	3yo	8f	Turf	$0/May4
Horseshoe Indianapolis S	Ind	May18	$150K	3yo f	8f	Turf	$0/May4
Sagamore Sired S	Ind	May18	$100K	3yo S	5.5f	Dirt	$0/May4
Swifty Sired Fillies S	Ind	May18	$100K	3yo f S	5.5f	Dirt	$0/May4
Pimlico Special (G3)	Pim	May20	$300K	3&up	9.5f	Dirt	$0/May10
George E. Mitchell Black-Eyed Susan S (G2)	Pim	May20	$250K	3yo f	9f	Dirt	$0/May10
Allaire duPont Distaff S (G3)	Pim	May20	$150K	3&up f/m	9f	Dirt	$0/May10
Miss Preakness S (G3)	Pim	May20	$150K	3yo f	6f	Dirt	$0/May10
Hilltop S	Pim	May20	$100K	3yo f	8f	Turf	$0/May10
The Very One S	Pim	May20	$100K	3&up f/m	5f	Turf	$0/May10
Seek Again S	Bel	May21	$100K	4&up	8f	Turf	$100/May7
Louisville (G3T)	CD	May21	$200K	4&up	12f	Turf	$100/May11
It's Binn Too Long S	CT	May21	$75K	3yo f S	4.5f	Dirt	$50/May11
PS Services Sprint	ED	May21	$10K	3&up	5f	Dirt	Not Available
Mr. Steele S	GP	May21	$75K	3&up	8.5f	Turf	$0/May8
Musical Romance S	GP	May21	$65K	3&up f/m S	6.5f	Dirt	$0/May8
Heian S (G3)	JRA	May21	$780K	4&up	9.5f	Dirt	Clsd Apr5
Politely S	Mth	May21	$100K	3&up f/m	5f	Turf	$100/May6
Preakness S (G1)	Pim	May21	$1,500K	3yo	9.5f	Dirt	$150,000/May18
Dinner Party S (G2T)	Pim	May21	$250K	3&up	8.5f	Turf	$0/May10
Chick Lang S (G3)	Pim	May21	$200K	3yo	6f	Dirt	$0/May10
Gallorette S (G3T)	Pim	May21	$150K	3&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	$0/May10
Maryland Sprint S (G3)	Pim	May21	$150K	3&up	6f	Dirt	$0/May10
James W. Murphy S	Pim	May21	$100K	3yo	8f	Turf	$0/May10
Jim McKay Turf Sprint	Pim	May21	$100K	3&up	5f	Turf	$0/May10
Sir Barton S Sponsored by Brandon and Diannah Perry to Benefit TAA	Pim	May21	$100K	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	$0/May10
Skipat S	Pim	May21	$100K	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$0/May10
Golden Circle S	PrM	May21	$50K	3yo	6f	Dirt	$0/May9
National Hunt Cup Hurdle	Rad	May21	$30K	4&up	19f	Turf	Not Available
Radnor Hunt Cup Timber	Rad	May21	$25K	5&up	26f	Turf	$100/May9
Mizdirection S	SA	May21	$75K	4&up f/m	abt 6.5f	Turf	$0/May12
Ruling Angel S	WO	May21	$100K	3yo f	7f	AW	$0/May11
Jack Diamond Maturity	HsT	May22	$50K	3yo c/g S	6.5f	Dirt	$100/May14
Sadie Diamond Maturity	HsT	May22	$50K	3yo f S	6.5f	Dirt	$100/May14
Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (G1T)	JRA	May22	$2,880K	3yo f	12f	Turf	Clsd Apr5
Get Serious S	Mth	May22	$100K	3&up	5f	Turf	$100/May6
King Corrie S	WO	May22	$100K	3yo	7f	AW	$0/May11
Tom Ridge S	PID	May23	$100K	3yo	6f	AW	$0/May10
Cinema S	WRD	May23	$55K	3yo f S	8f	Dirt	$0/May11
Electric Fever S	AsD	May24	$20K	3yo f	5f	Dirt	$0/May12
Will Rogers S	WRD	May24	$55K	3yo S	8f	Dirt	$0/May12
Brooks Fields S	Cby	May25	$50K	3&up	8f	Turf	$0/May11
HBPA Turf Distaff	Cby	May25	$50K	3&up f/m	8f	Turf	$0/May11
Honor the Hero S	Cby	May25	$50K	3&up	5f	Turf	$0/May11
Cherokee Nation Classic Cup	WRD	May25	$55K	3&up S	8.5f	Dirt	$0/May13
More Than Even S	WRD	May25	$55K	3&up f/m S	8.5f	Dirt	$0/May13
Alberta Sire Stakes Debutante	CTM	May27	$50K	3yo f R	6.5f	Dirt	$100/May19
Soaring Softly S (G3T)	Bel	May28	$100K	3yo f	7f	Turf	$100/May14
Keertana Overnight S	CD	May28	$160K	4&up f/m	12f	Turf	$0/May14
Albertas Sire Stakes Derby	CTM	May28	$50K	3yo R	6.5f	Dirt	$100/May19
Big Drama S	GP	May28	$65K	3&up S	7f	Dirt	$0/May15
Oakbrook S	Haw	May28	$75K	3&up f/m S	8f	Turf	$0/May14
Aoi S	JRA	May28	$823K	3yo	6f	Turf	Clsd Apr5
Cliff Hanger S	Mth	May28	$100K	3&up	8.5f	Turf	$100/May13
Melair S	SA	May28	$150K	3yo f S	8.5f	Dirt	$100/May19
Snow Chief S	SA	May28	$150K	3yo S	9f	Turf	$100/May19
Crystal Water S	SA	May28	$100K	3&up S	8f	Turf	$100/May19
Fran's Valentine S	SA	May28	$100K	3&up f/m S	8f	Turf	$100/May19
Thor's Echo S	SA	May28	$100K	3&up S	6f	Dirt	$100/May19
Paradise Creek S	Bel	May29	$100K	3yo	7f	Turf	$100/May14
Alcatraz S	GG	May29	$75K	3yo	8f	Turf	$50/May19
Black Tie Affair S	Haw	May29	$75K	3&up S	8f	Turf	$0/May15
Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (G1T)	JRA	May29	$4,115K	3yo	12f	Turf	Clsd Apr5
Meguro Kinen (G2T)	JRA	May29	$1,173K	4&up	12.5f	Turf	Clsd Apr5
Jersey Derby S	Mth	May29	$100K	3yo	8f	Turf	$100/May13
Triple Bend S (G2)	SA	May29	$200K	4&up	7f	Dirt	$100/May19
Daytona S (G3T)	SA	May29	$100K	4&up	abt 6.5f	Turf	$100/May19
Honeymoon S (G3T)	SA	May29	$100K	3yo f	9f	Turf	$100/May19
Dine S	SRP	May29	$100K	3yo S	6.5f	Dirt	$200/May20
San Juan County Commissioners S	SRP	May29	$75K	3&up	9f	Dirt	$200/May20
Stella Artois Eclipse S (G2)	WO	May29	$175K	4&up	8.5f	AW	$175/May11
Lord Balcony S	AsD	May30	$20K	3yo	5f	Dirt	$0/May19
Commentator H	Bel	May30	$200K	3&up S	8f	Dirt	$200/May14
Critical Eye H	Bel	May30	$200K	3&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	$200/May14
Bouwerie S	Bel	May30	$125K	3yo f S	7f	Dirt	$125/May14
Kingston S	Bel	May30	$125K	4&up S	8.5f	Turf	$125/May14
Mike Lee S	Bel	May30	$125K	3yo S	7f	Dirt	$125/May14
Mount Vernon S	Bel	May30	$125K	4&up f/m S	8f	Turf	$125/May14
Winning Colors S (G3)	CD	May30	$200K	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$100/May14
Memorial S	ED	May30	$10K	3&up	7f	Dirt	Not Available
George W. Barker S	FL	May30	$50K	3&up S	6f	Dirt	$0/May18
All American S	GG	May30	$100K	3&up	8f	AW	$50/May20
Steve Sexton Mile S (G3)	LS	May30	$400K	3&up	8f	Dirt	$0/May19
Texas Derby	LS	May30	$300K	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	$0/May19
Ouija Board Distaff	LS	May30	$200K	3&up f/m	8f	Turf	$0/May19
Chamberlain Bridge S	LS	May30	$100K	3&up	5f	Turf	$0/May19
Memorial Day Sprint S	LS	May30	$100K	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$0/May19
Speightstown Sprint	LS	May30	$100K	3&up	6f	Dirt	$0/May19
Miss Liberty S	Mth	May30	$100K	3&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	$100/May13
Shoemaker Mile (G1T)	SA	May30	$500K	3&up	8f	Turf	$100/May19
Gamely S (G1T)	SA	May30	$400K	3&up f/m	9f	Turf	$100/May19
Hollywood Gold Cup (G1)	SA	May30	$400K	3&up	10f	Dirt	$100/May19
Nifty S	AsD	May31	$20K	3&up	5f	Dirt	$0/May19

Sort the above table by any column or search with box at top

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Get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races including the Kentucky Derby!

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Kentucky Derby Central

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Friday, April 15, 2022.  On Saturday, Keeneland will host the Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes, the last Derby Prep race and last chance at a Kentucky Derby ticket for 5 of the runners that already have Derby Points and are vying for their chance to run for the roses. Weather will reach the low 60s with not much chance of rain at all.

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The Lexington not only offers a $400k purse, but also 20-8-4-2 points to the top 4 finishers.  If you look at the points chart, Tawny Port is currently dangling precariously at the final #20 position with 40 points and the least earnings of any in the 40 club. All he would have to do is finish top 4 and his slot is assured.

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But that scenario is far from guaranteed, even if he is the Lexington points leader going in and the ML favorite.  His 2 wins and 40-point 2^nd in the Ruby were all on poly track.  His only dirt race was a mediocre 5^th in the Risen Star.  Here, get the Keeneland Grid here free to follow along. Morning scratches already removed.

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Meanwhile, there are 5 others in the race vying to run for the roses, none of which have a better PF than Tawny’s Ruby Steaks run, but all of which have better dirt PF’s.  So that’s where it gets really interesting.  If Tawny Port doesn’t get into the top 4, it could be over for his Derby aspirations.

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Ethereal Road and In Due Time both have 20 points, and a Lexington win combined with their earnings, both thanks to prior 2^nd place G2 finishes, would easily overtake Tawny if he doesn’t hit the board, since they would be tied at 40 points.  Of course, if Tawny sucks on dirt again, their connections should just forget the Derby.

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Major General, Dash Attack, and Call Me Midnight only have 10 points.  Any of those could get 20 for the Lexington win, putting them at 30 total, which with their earnings would easily eclipse Happy Jack who is at #21 with 30 points.

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Since the Derby point system began, horses that are in the top 20, three weeks before the big race, never all make the Derby field.  Not seldom, but NEVER.  There are always withdrawals for injuries, unfitness, or whatever reason.  So it’s possible that 2 or 3 from this race will get into the Derby field, and 30 points may be enough.

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So who might those be? On paper, there is virtually no early speed in the race at all, with only one horse with Speed Points over 5. However, 6 of them have been on the lead at first call, once and only one race, of their respective careers.  So the jockeys and trainers are aware of this, and expect at least one of them to try to steal it on the front end.

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In Due Time EP6 3-1. If someone else doesn’t make an early move, he’ll have his way up front, and with the possibility of getting to 40 points and a guaranteed run for the roses on the line, Paco won’t be messing around.  1^st in Speed, 2^nd Power

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Call Me Midnight S0 6-1 has been running from the back of the pack his last 5 races. He had a brilliant last to first run in the Lecomte G3 to open the year, but flattened out in the La Derby 3 weeks back. 3^rd Power, 1^st  LP and Stamina.

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Ethereal Road S3 10-1 is running one week back from a disappointing Blue Grass G1, but Lukas is desperate for a Derby horse and confident in his late running ability, with a solid 2^nd in the Rebel G2.  2^nd in LP and Stam, 4^th Power.  Guaranteed slot if he wins.

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Skate to Heaven P3 30-1 looked marginally mediocre in his first 3 races before breaking thru with his maiden win last out going 4w and posting the 2^nd best dirt PF in this field, also making him the 4 rules horse.  If he runs like that again he could win, but 20 points won’t be getting him into the Derby. Super long shot special though.

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Dash Attack P1 10-1 was looking strong winning both his first two races including the 10 point Smarty Jones, then ran into graded stakes company and looked quite marginal. He could get a piece but won’t likely win.

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So those are my top five in this race:  2 11 3 6 10. 

Now you’re asking what I did with 4-1 Major General and 5-2 Tawny Port? 

Well, I think there’s a reason why Tawny Port has raced 3 of 4 on poly and sucked in his only dirt race.

As for Major General, last year he was solid and won the first Derby prep of the season, but stumble or not in his only race this year, there’s some reason his first race wasn’t until March.  Either Todd was confident he’d win or a negative reason for the 6-month layoff.

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There you have it. Now you’re armed with the Grid and you can make picks your own picks for the rest of the Keeneland Saturday card, on which there are 10 more interesting races including a couple stakes.

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R10 5:48ET 8.5f T JenyWily-G1 4 UP FM

The other big G1 only has 6 contestants and the favorites are strong, but if you want to box a tri maybe included 4yo filly Scarabea who continues to improve at 20-1.

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R8 4:44ET 5.5f T Gnts CswayL200k 3 UP FM

You have to love 5.5f turf sprint stakes with 13 entries. Unfortunately they’re usually won by the favorite which in this case is the fastest horse Elle Z who has won 3 such stakes races in a row this year.  If you think a speed duel may tire out some favs, check out the top 4 late runners, one is 12-1 and the other three are all 30-1 on the ML.  You can see this info in the Grid.

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Other assorted long shot specials (not predicted order of finish):

R7:  1,3, 9

R6:  5

R5:  11, 12

R4:  1, 4

R3:  4

R2:  2, 3

R1:  no action

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Over at Laurel in the Tesio at 5PM, you can see why Shake Em Loose will be favored after beating ML fav Joe in the Private Terms. Smarten Up looks strong too but again low odds. My top long shot is Secret Alliance at 10-1 first time at 2 turns but only E8 in field.  Vine Jet 6-1 and South Street 8-1 are the top LP runners.

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To get the Grid for Keeneland, Churchill, Aqueduct, Santa Anita, and all your favorite tracks, check out the options right here.  It’s a great time to join the WWC.  The Triple Crown Special includes two months and gets you through the Belmont Stakes in June, or you can just go monthly.

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Remember to vote in the Kentucky Derby winner poll on the left if you’re looking through a normal browser. It doesn’t show up in mobile browsers.

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Saturday, April 9, 2022.  Keeneland continues it’s huge opening spring weekend with 5 graded stakes:  Commonwealth G3, Appalachian G2, Madison G1, Shakertown G2, and finally the Toyota Blue Grass G1 in which at least the top two finishers will stamp their Kentucky Derby ticket.

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Also today, the Santa Anita Derby G1 and Wood Memorial G2 and Aqueduct will be issuing at least two tickets each to the Kentucky Derby.  Forbidden Kingdom at SA is already in, but Messier and Taiba are looking to earn their first Derby Points in the SA Derby.  In the Wood, Morello is already in. These are the last 3 big Derby Prep races.

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Racing at Keeneland begins at 12:30PM ET with two MSW 100K’s and an OCM80k, all for 3yo’s, so we can see how they measure up to the big boys in the Blue Grass.  There are 11 races on the exciting card with over 115 horses slated to run, after morning scratches processed.  Stakes racing begins 2:45PM.

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Weather in Lexington is rather cold in the low 40’s and some light rain and light snow in the area.  We’ll break down the Blue Grass Stakes and a couple of other interesting races here. Get today’s Grid here (scratches removed) so you can follow along and make your own picks.  

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R9 5:10ET 9f D BlueGras-G1 3 YO 

A talented field of 11 compete for a $1M purse and 100-40-20-10 Kentucky Derby Points.  5 of them are in Derby Futures Pool 5 which closes today at 4:30PM so get your bets in BEFORE the Derby Prep races today. 6 of them

Smile Happy 9-5:  There’s not much to dislike about this favorite coached by Kenny McPeek. He only has 3 races but won the first two including a G2, then finished a strong closing 2^nd to Epicenter, who is the Derby Points leader.  He’s in Futures Pool at 6-1 ML.  It will be interesting to see what the good closer does with a fast pace up front.

Zandon 5-2 has two ITM finishes in G2’s but with only 14 points needs another ITM finish here for Chad Brown.  I think starting in last in the Risen Star didn’t enable him for the win. 20-1 ML in Pool 5.

Rattle N Roll 8-1 is McPeek’s other entry, and hasn’t been great this year so desperately needs some points.  But he returns to the track of his best career race, a win in the Breeders Futurity G1.

Ethereal Road 20-1 comes in after a ½ length loss in the Rebel G2, 1 race after finally breaking maiden on his 4^th try.  Can old Wayne Lukas pull some magic again?  50-1 in Pool 5 if you think so.

Commandperformance 12-1 ran in two G1 races last year, finishing well including a 2^nd in the Champagne, but is still a maiden after 4 races.  Last out Pletcher tried again in a 40k maiden and lost to Fenweick 20-1 who went gate to wire in his best career effort. 

Volcanic 20-1 is another good long shot special who could hit the board for Mark Casse.  He does nothing particularly great, but can run on or off the lead and continues to improve.

Emmanuel 9-2 is the other Pletcher entry, and I don’t really think he can win this race, but if they let him loose on the lead he could hold on for a piece.  Surprisingly he’s only 20-1 in Pool 5 ML.

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The above is how I see the order of finishing in this race.  You’ll want to consult the latest Double Derby Dozen before making your futures bets today.  Here’s how the Blue Grass contenders stand:

7 Smile Happy

14 Rattle N Roll

15 Zandon

21 Ethereal Road

22 Emmanuel

25 Command Performance

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In the Wood Memorial today, here’s how I like it:

5 Morello 8-5 (Pletcher)

1 Mo Donegal 5-2 (Pletcher)

3 Early Voting 5-2 (Chad Brown)

8 Barese 8-1 (Maker)

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Santa Anita Derby picks are as follows:

4 Messier 1-1 (Yakteen/Baffert)

6 Taiba 4-1 (Yakteen/Baffert)

3 Forbidden Kingdom 6-5 (Mandella)

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You can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races, including the Kentucky Derby. Check it out.

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Good luck!

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Friday April 8, 2022.  Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 5 opened yesterday and will run through Saturday, rather than Fri-Sun as usual.  This constitutes a good time for the next Doug’s Double Derby Dozen +1 Top 25 to help you make your futures bets.  If you like any of tomorrow’s runners you may want to bet them today.  We are providing the Pool 5 Grid and the Top 25 on this page.

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Keeneland opened today with the Ashland and Transylvania stakes, and on Saturday  will host the Toyota Blue Grass G1, in which 4 from Pool 5 and 6 from today’s Top 25 list, with one in the top 10

Aqueduct on Saturday will run the Wood Memorial G2 with 3 of the racers both in Pool 5 and one in the top 10.

Santa Anita’s Saturday card includes the Santa Anita Derby which is still a Grade 1 despite only 6 runners.  But they include the top two in our DDD list and another in the top 10.

These are the last 3 big races in the Kentucky Derby Championship series, each of which is worth 100 points to the winner. The only remaining race will be the Lexington Stakes next weekend, but it’s only worth 20.

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For today’s list we’ll give you a snapshot so you can see some color codes.  Note than in bold are trainers that have won Triple Crown races.  We include Tim Yakteen because he’s running Baffert trainees.

Green:  Santa Anita Derby runners

Blue:  Blue Grass racers

Red:  Wood Memorial competitors

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The figures to the right are the best Brisnet, Beyer, and Equibase speed figures (all public information posted on their sites) and the average of such.

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I would love to go into explanation into all of the thought processes that went into this ranking but that would take two hours to write and at least half an hour to read. So you get the concise chart.

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Here is the sortable table of the Double Dozen and one:

Down and Dirty Derby Double Dozen and 1 as of April 8 2022

DD	Horse	FP5	ST	Sire	Trainer
1	Messier	8	EP7	Empire Maker	Yakteen(Baffert)
2	Forbidden Kingdom	8	E8	American Pharoah	Mandella Richard E
3	White Abarrio	8	EP6	Race Day	Joseph Saffie A Jr
4	Epicenter	5	EP8	Not This Time	Asmussen Steven M
5	Charge It	12	EP6	Tapit	Pletcher Todd A
6	Morello	20	EP7	Classic Empire	Asmussen Steven M
7	Smile Happy	6	P3	Runhappy	Mcpeek Kenneth G
8	Cyberknife	12	EP4	Gun Runner	Cox Brad H
9	Tiz The Bomb	12	P2	Hit It A Bomb	Mcpeek Kenneth G
10	Taiba	50	EP8	Gun Runner	Yakteen(Baffert)
11	Barber Road	30	S1	Race Day	Ortiz John Alexander
12	Simplification	15	EP4	Not This Time	Sano Antonio
13	Slow Down Andy	50	EP5	Nyquist	O'neill Doug
14	Rattle N Roll	30	P3	Connect	Mcpeek Kenneth G
15	Zandon	20	P5	Upstart	Brown Chad C
16	Classic Causeway	12	EP6	Giant's Causeway	Lynch Brian A
17	Call Me Midnight	30	S0	Midnight Lute	Desormeaux Keith
18	Un Ojo	12	P4	Laoban	Courville Ricky
19	Mo Donegal	20	P3	Uncle Mo	Pletcher Todd A
20	In Due Time	50	EP6	Not This Time	Breen Kelly J
21	Ethereal Road	50	S2	Quality Road	Lukas D Wayne
22	Emmanuel	20	E6	More Than Ready	Pletcher Todd A
23	Early Voting	20	EP6	Gun Runner	Brown Chad C
24	Zozos	30	EP7	Munnings	Cox Brad H
25	Commandperformance	12	EP5	Union Rags	Pletcher Todd A

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Note that in this top 25 list we omitted two of the top 3yo’s:  Corniche and Newgrange, both of which have accrued any Kentucky Derby points because they were trained by Bob Baffert.  It will simply be just about impossible for either to qualify for the Kentucky Derby because they’re not running in one of the big 3 races listed above, this weekend.   

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Now for one of today’s free Grids (we also provided one for Keeneland).  The Futures Pool 5 Grid will give you some insight as to how the horses stack up numerically against each other.

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After this weekend’s big 3 races, things could change to some degree.  It’s possible that a horse like Barese for example, could take another step up in class and take the Wood.  Rattle N Roll returns to the track where he had his best career race, a win in the Breeders Futurity G1.  

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It shall be interesting, and we’ll see what happens along the way on this exciting Saturday of racing.  The next Derby Double Dozen will be issued the week after the Lexington Stakes to include all of the Championship Series races.  

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Good luck in your futures betting and stay tuned for tomorrow’s free Grid!

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You can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races here, so check it out.