Weekend Winners Club

Gulfstream Park Saturday Feb.27:  Gulfstream Mile, FOY, Davona Dale, Oh My.  Stakes Precap

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Saturday, February 27.  Gulfstream Park in sunny Miami hosts the best North American stakes card of the month today, with 9 stakes races, 8 of which are graded.  The highlight of course is the Fountain of Youth G2, but also we have the Davona Dale G2, GP Mile G2, Mac Diamarda and other stakes.

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We’ll break down the stakes races for you, using the Grid for analysis.  First, grab the free Gulfstream Grid today to follow along and make some notes of your own.  Racing starts early at 1130AM ET but the stakes racing doesn’t start until 1230 so you have some time.

The Fountain of Youth G2 is the last of 14 races on the day, taking the card past 6PM ET.  This contest is for 3yo’s aiming for the Kentucky Derby and is worth 50 Derby points to the winner. 10 talented youngsters are slated for today’s contest.

The Chalk:   Greatest Honour 9-5 ML is legit and has top LP and Power in the Grid. (Note that Sososubtle appears to have top LP but since the calculation drops the lowest race, it’s only based on 1 race).  Greatest Honour has won 2 in a row at GP including the Holy Bull G3 last out for Shug (pronounced as in sugar, not as in rug) and is heavily expected to win here.

Fire at Will is listed as 2^nd choice at 7-2 and has been slated for turf in all 4 races, 3 of which were wins.  Ironically he broke his maiden on a sloppy dirt track at Saratoga in a stakes race taken off turf.  Then he followed it up with 2 graded stakes wins on turf.  He’s an excellent colt for sure, but there’s a reason Maker has had him on turf, and I don’t trust him on dry dirt at this point.

The morning line has 2 co-3^rd choices listed at 5-1 each.  One of them is Pletcher’s Prime Factor, who finished a distant 3^rd in the Holy Bull, failing to make a closing move.  The other is Drain the Clock, who has won 2 stakes in a row by 6 and 7 lengths here for Saffie Joseph.  He has top EP and 2^nd in Power in the Grid, and should be very dangerous here.

Tarantino at 8-1 ML faded to 2^nd in the Holy Bull after chasing an honest but not torrid pace up front.  Papetu 15-1 was 4^th in that one, losing ground in the stretch, but before that was impressive finishing 2^nd by a length in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes.

The last realistic contender is Sososubtle who we already mentioned, who opened up last out to break maiden in his second race for Armando De La Cerda, with Paco Lopez up as he is today.  The race was on dirt at a mile here at Gulf and the PF puts him on the board. Long shot special alert.

It bears mentioning that Tiz Tact Toe 30-1, who I seriously doubt will win but could hit the board at long odds.  It’s his first start on dirt, first for trainer Rob Hess, and first since being gelded.  LSS alert.

Greatest Honour is indeed an S0 late runner but has proven that he doesn’t need a heated pace up front to win.  In fact, he almost won at Aqueduct 3 back with a 50.8 half mile up front but understandably came up a head short.  There’s enough speed for him here.

Prediction:  8 1 3 2 4 9     LSS 3 9

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Race 13 the Very One G3 is very intriguing.  10 older fillies and mares take to turf at 9.5f and this one is literally wide open.  The 4 top late runners are very close in LP and normally that’s what we look for at this distance. 

However, there’s almost no speed in the race, and we add a stakes runner from the UK who is a lukewarm ML favorite. I recommend doing some wheeling and dealing in this one.  The only one I can’t make a case for is the longest ML shot in the field.  So much for narrowing it down.

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The Davona Dale G2 in race 12 is the female equivalent of the FOY, with 10 talented fillies competing at a mile and aiming toward the Kentucky Oaks the first Saturday in May.

Vequist 7-5 is making her first start since winning the BC Juvenile Fillies G1 in November and unless the time off did her wrong, she will win this one.  However, there is a significant amount of speed in this one so she may have to be rated against her will.

The only other one with the competitive speed to track the favorite is Competitive Speed at 15-1, who put up a nice PF 2 back winning a sprint stakes here.  It will be her first time at 2 turns for Javier Gonzales but looks good going in.

Millefeuille and Crazy Beautiful also have good LP and competitive PF’s and someone else has to hit the board so those are my next choices.

Prediction:  3 7 5 6 LSS 7

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Honey Fox G3 Race 11 for older fillies and mares at 8f on turf. 

Got Stormy has been running at one turn but has a lot of speed and is a proven graded stakes competitor at a mile, and thus is the deserving favorite.  I also like the other single digit entries plus Jakarta at 15-1 for the long shot special. Jakarta always runs in sprints but her last race at a mile was a dirt stakes win here at GP.

Prediction:  2 6 8 7 4        LSS 8

The other stakes races look somewhat chalky with no really good plays identified yet so I’ll wait for post time to make decisions on those, but you’re free to use the Grid to make your own picks.

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Remember, you can get the Grid for all the major tracks and races right here.

Good luck!

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Friday, February 12, 2021.  A new edition of the 2021 Kentucky Derby Futures Pool, number 3 to be exact, is underway this weekend.  Remember to place your bets by Sunday at 6PM ET, regardless of whatever this 2:59AM time that it keeps stating on the TVG site.

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But also remember, you get locked in for the odds of each betting day.  First open today’s Derby Pool Grid so you can follow along with what we’re talking about.

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As we speak here on Friday afternoon, the Bob Baffert trained Life Is Good is the narrow single entry favorite, after winning at first request and then also winning the Sham Stakes to begin the year.  Fair enough, but you’ll probably get a better price than 5-1 on him on Derby Day.

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Baffert’s Concert Tour also looks good in winning his first two, including the San Vicente Stakes last out, but has yet to race at over a mile.  Sneaking under the radar is Bob’s 3^rd trainee in the pool, Medina Spirit, who ran a close 2^nd in the Sham and won the Bob Lewis G2 Stakes last out.

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Running way incognito right now for Baffert is Freedom Fighter currently at 35-1, who begrudgingly gave up the 7f San Vicente title after setting the pace and faithfully battling down the stretch, only to lose by half a length.  Now his odds are more than twice that of Concert Tour who was supposed to win anyway.

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Now that we’ve covered Bobby’s barn, let’s move on that of Brad Cox, whose barn has been on fire for the past year.  Top steed Essential Quality currently is at 6-1 due to his BC Juvenile win at Keeneland last year and has yet to run this year.  A good selection but again, you’ll likely get better odds in May.

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Brad has one more currently in the mix and somewhat under the radar.  Caddo River has won 2 in a row at a mile including the Smarty Jones where he obtained his first Kentucky Derby points.

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Chad Brown also has a couple in the futures mix right now, including an incredible bargain on Highly Motivated, who registered the highest PF in the Grid of 97 last out.  That was achieved in the Breeders’ Cup undercard Nyquist Stakes wherein he also set a new track record at 6.5f.  30-1?  OK.  
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Chad’s other entry, Risk Taking currently at 35-1, hasn’t done much except win a pair of 9 furlong races in a row, including the Withers G3 last out.  That too looks like a good bargain at that price.  

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You may be thinking I forgot about the ever Derby-dangerous Doug O’neill. Nope.  Hot Rod Charlie is currently at 40-1 after a horrible trip bumping and grinding in the RB Lewis. Before that he was 2^nd in the BC Juve.  The Great One, also at 40-1, broke maiden last out after a narrow loss in the Los Al Futurity last year to what was Baffert’s top 2yo at the time.  It would be dumb to count out Doug’O and great prices.

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A very intriguing prospect is Shug (pronounced as in the word SUGAR, which some “professional” announcers embarrassingly don’t know and pronounce it as a rhyme with RUG, which doesn’t even make sense, but most broadcasters just read a fucking teleprompter) McGaughey’s Greatest Honour, a Tapit colt currently at 11-1.  He has the top aggregate LP in the Grid and drew off in the Holy Bull G3 as if he were the wind.

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Rob Diodoro trainee Keepmeinmind has Uncle Mo as the grandsire and hasn’t done much wrong, coming in at a close 3^rd in the BC Juvenile then following up with a win in the KYJC G2.  45-1 is a hefty price for the 4^th best late runner in the Grid.

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Prevalence deserves to be mentioned after an impressive debut in which he won by 8.5 lengths in a 7f MSW in late January.  It’s unclear where he will appear next, but his competent trainer is Brendan Walsh and he’s a direct son of the great Medaglia D’oro. 

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Those are my top contestants out of order.  The exact rankings assigned for the Derby Dozen appear in the table below, but remember, any of these with double digit odds are good value.  The table can be sorted by any of the column field headers.  So start sorting and shredding.

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2021 Kentucky Derby Double Dozen Top 25 February 12.

Name	Pool3	Style	Rank	HI	Sire	Trainer
Essential Quality	5	EP3	1	96	Tapit	Cox Brad H
Life Is Good	5	E6	2	96	Into Mischief	Baffert Bob
Concert Tour	17	EP6	3	93	Street Sense	Baffert Bob
Medina Spirit	25	E7	4	93	Protonico	Baffert Bob
Highly Motivated	50	P6	5	97	Into Mischief	Brown Chad C
Freedom Fighter	50	E6	6	92	Violence	Baffert Bob
Greatest Honour	6	S0	7	97	Tapit	Mcgaughey Claude Iii
The Great One	60	EP8	8	96	Nyquist	O'neill Doug
Swiftsure	99	EP6	9	94	Uncle Mo	Asmussen Steven M
Hot Rod Charlie	50	P3	10	95	Oxbow	O'neill Doug
Keepmeinmind	50	S2	11	93	Laoban	Diodoro Robertino
Prevalence	12	E6	12	91	Medaglia D'Oro	Walsh Brendan P
Senor Buscador	16	S0	13	90	Mineshaft	Fincher Todd W
Caddo River	15	E8	14	92	Hard Spun	Cox Brad H
Candy Man Rocket	40	EP8	15	93	Candy Ride	Mott William I
Dream Shake	25	S4	16	88	Twirling Candy	Eurton Peter
Fire At Will	30	EP5	17	92	Declaration Of War	Maker Michael J
Jackie's Warrior	24	E7	18	96	Maclean's Music	Asmussen Steven M
Mandaloun	60	P6	19	90	Into Mischief	Cox Brad H
Midnight Bourbon	40	EP7	20	91	Tiznow	Asmussen Steven M
Nova Rags	99	P7	21	88	Union Rags	Mott William I
Risk Taking	30	P3	22	92	Medaglia D'Oro	Brown Chad C
Roman Centurian	50	S0	23	89	Empire Maker	Callaghan Simon

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Some final notes.  If you do like Keepmeinmind, bet on him Friday because he’s racing tomorrow in the Risen Star G2.  If he wins that you can kiss 45-1 odds goodbye.  Mandaloun, Midnight Bourbon, and Senor Buscador are also in that race.  Buscador is 8-1 so you can wait on that on, but he does have good LP and if he wins the odds might suck come Sunday.

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Also, Essential Quality and Jackie’s Warrior may run in the Southwest Stakes at some point next week.  It’s unclear when the race will actually be held and if EQ wins, his odds may go down, but 6-1 is nothing to write home about in a futures pool. 
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At least half of those listed in the futures pool won’t even make the final Derby field.  But as recent history has it, 4 of our top 10 will likely complete the Derby superfecta.  Those are good odds.

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You can of course get the Grid for every major track and race right here.  Good luck!

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Sunday, February 7, 2021.  Never before has a Superbowl had a more appropriate nomenclature than LIV this year.  In a year where people are fighting for their lives and their ways of life, in many ways, LIV pretty much sums it up.

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The key in daily fantasy sports is to get the best possible lineup. This has always proven to be a difficult task, but I’ve been getting better at it, especially in the playoffs.  In Fanduel, you only get 5 players, and 1 you choose as your MVP which gets you 1.5X points for that player.

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There are 2 realistic MVP candidates:  Tom Brady and Pat Mahomes.  Both of them average over 20 points per game as the highest scoring players coming into the game.  The only other I’m considering, and I put him as MVP into at least 1 of my 8 lineups, is L.Fournette.

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The problem with others as MVP is as follows:  T.Hill and T.Kelce are both coming off a monster game in which they went nuts.  They simply won’t repeat that the 3^rd game in a row.  Meaning someone like Sammy Watkins could have a big game instead.

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On the other side of the ball, Evans and Godwin both had a good game last out but nothing ridiculous, and they could repeat, but those are hardly MVP numbers.  Plus adding Antonio Brown to the mix, a great sleeper pick who will take points away from the other 2 WR’s.

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Brady and Mahomes are consistent, and either is your MVP.  I’m splitting my 8 lineups down the middle alternating those as the MVP.  I feel that TB will win but that doesn’t mean Brady is the points MVP.  I also feel a huge game from Fournette, who has always proven to shine in the playoffs.

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The rest of your picks are full of possibilities. But keep in mind that Brady and Gronkowski have a long Superbowl and playoff history together, and Cameron Brate is questionable for the game.  Although the signs are both will play, Gronk is way overdue for a big playoff game.

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Antonio Brown is a value pick in this game.  He hasn’t done much this season, but coming out of an injury, he’s healthy for the first time in a while and gives Brady another passing option since Evans and Godwin will be the focal point of the Chieves defense.

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As aforementioned in part, I really don’t like anyone coming off their biggest game of the season, so Hill and Kelce aren’t even an option for me, plus their fantasy salaries are ridiculous. I’d much rather spend the money on Brady and Mahomes.

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My ideal lineup is thus as follows, and it fits under the Fanduel cap: 

Brady, Mahomes, Fournette, Gronkowski, and Brown.

I have variations of this lineup rotating out the last 2 but the 1^st 3 are mandatory in my analysis.  If this is indeed the best lineup, I’ll be writing you from Cabo San Lucas next week while drinking Sammy’s Beach Bar Rum and Cabo Wabo tequila, completely mauled and enjoying my 6 digit win.

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If not, maybe one of my alternate lineups will win.  For value plays, I like Gronk and Brown as mentioned, but Brate, Miller, Pringle, Hardman, Watkins, and the kickers can also foot the bill.  Either kicker will likely guarantee you 10 points so they’re not really bad picks.  I just like the upside of the WR’s, as they could explode for big points as Brown and Watkins have in the past.

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For the game, I like Tampa Bay in this one. Put it this way:  Tommy is 6 of 9 in Superbowls, all this century.  Kansas City is 1 for 1 this century, due to last year’s win, and they could well win again this year.  But it’s a tall order, considering the formidable QB they are up against.

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The MVP position is up to you, flip a coin.  Mahomes can run and throw, and there’s a 99% chance he will break a run for at least 20 yards, whereas there’s a 1% chance that Brady will.  However, as aforementioned, there’s statistically a proven 67% chance that Brady will win the game.

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It’s not all about Brady of course, but his defense is playing well and the addition of deep threat Antonio Brown only gives him more options.  His release is quick and he moves around well in the pocket for someone his age, taking very few sacks.  He will be up for the challenge as he always has been.

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You can make an equal case for Mahomes, due to his ridiculous running ability that makes him a threat on any play, any down, at any point in the game.  He will do all he can to win the game and he’s dangerous, thus a very good MVP candidate as well, win or lose.

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Good luck today, and may the Horse be with you.

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Saturday, February 6.  Tampa Bay Downs is getting its stakes racing underway with 3 graded stakes races including the Tampa Bay, Sam Davis, and Endeavor.  The listed Suncoast Stakes for 3yo fillies and Sam Davis G3 top off a big 3yo day with several maiden races on the undercard.

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The featured Sam Davis G3 for open 3yo’s is scheduled for 5pm and features 12 talented youngsters trying to blaze their Triple Crown trail going 8.5f on the dirt.  This race looks very competitive and could be wide open.  Get today’s free Tampa grid here to follow along.

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Candy Man Rocket at 10-1 ML which will certainly go down, is my top pick after a blistering 9 length win breaking his maiden last out at Gulfstream for Bill Mott, who also brings Nova Rags who is the second ML choice at 4-1. 

Known Agenda at 6-1 is my second pick, making his first 3yo start after a 3^rd place in the sloppy Remsen G2 a couple months ago. His price will likely come down. Todd also has a pair, with Millean coming off a win in his first dirt race.

Smiley Sobotka 3-1 is hard to argue against as the favorite after a 2^nd in the Kentucky Jockey Club G2 in November.  He’s also making his first 3yo start.

My next choice is Hidden Stash 10-1 ML, who has rattled off 2 straight wins at this distance for Victor Oliver.  Runway Magic at 8-1 looks good going into his first route race.

Prediction:  9 3 1 5 8 6 7 LSS 9 1 6

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Working backwards, the Endeavour G3 on turf will be run on turf at 8.5f for older fillies and mares.  This race is also somewhat wide open, but will only have 7 entries so odds will likely suffer.

Prediction:  2 5 8 7 6        LSS 8

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Race 9 is the filly equivalent of the Sam Davis, the Suncoast Stakes at 8.18 for 3yof.  This one also has a lot of possibilities. Indeed the favorite is my top choice, Gulf Coast at 5-2.

My second choice Feeling Mischief at 9-2looking good going into her first route after a stakes win, and 3^rd choice is the 2^nd ML choice Honorifique at 7-2 coming off a close 2^nd place stakes finish.  Long shots Be Sneaky 12-1 and Special Princess 8-1 could make some noise.

Prediction:  7 2 5, 4 8 10                 LSS 8 10

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Race 8 is the Tampa Bay Stakes for older horses going 8.5f on the turf.  Once again, a lot of possibilities here and a good betting race.  Favorites Fancy Liquor and Greyes Creek have good merit but so do many others.  12 to choose from here and half of them simply can’t be ruled out.

Prediction:  12 2 10 5 6 4 8             LSS 4 5 6 8

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That’s it for the stakes racing. Several MSW’s on the undercard feature possible rising stars coached by the likes of Pletcher, Mott, McPeek, Clement, and Proctor.  They will certainly provide some good entertainment and insight into the 3yo picture being formulated this year.

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Good luck to all!

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Remember, you can get the Grid for every major track and race right here.

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The February 2021 thoroughbred stakes schedule for North America, Japan, and Saudi Arabia has been revised due to weather postponements and additions. Updated Feb.23 to reflect new dates for Oaklawn stakes racing.

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As usual for this time of year, the bulk of stakes racing is occurring in South Florida and South California, the sunny and warm spots of the winter. But Saudi Arabia has also released their very high priced stakes schedule.

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February 2021 Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan

Race	Track	Date	Purse	Age/Sex	Dist.	Surface	Fee, Due Date
Baffle S	SA	5-Feb	$75k a	3yo	6.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 21.
A.T.B.A. Sales S	TuP	5-Feb	$35k a	3yo c/g R	6f	Dirt	Not Available
A.T.B.A. Sales S	TuP	5-Feb	$35k a	3yo f R	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Withers S (G3)	Aqu	6-Feb	$250k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 23.
Ladies' Turf Sprint S	GP	6-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m	5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 24.
Suwannee River S (G3T)	GP	6-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 24.
King Cotton S	OP	6-Feb	$150k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
Las Virgenes S (G3)	SA	6-Feb	$200k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 28.
San Marcos S (G2T)	SA	6-Feb	$200k g	4&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Jan 21.
Thunder Road S (G3T)	SA	6-Feb	$100k g	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Jan 28.
Lambholm South Endeavour S (G3T)	Tam	6-Feb	#$175k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 23.
Sam F. Davis S (G3)	Tam	6-Feb	#$250k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 23.
Suncoast S	Tam	6-Feb	#$150k g	3yo f	8.32f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 23.
Tampa Bay S (G3T)	Tam	6-Feb	#$175k g	4&up	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 23.
Ruthless S	Aqu	7-Feb	$100k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 23.
Kisaragi Sho (G3T)	JRA	7-Feb	$780k a	3yo	10f	Turf	Closed on Dec 22.
Tokyo Shimbun Hai (G3T)	JRA	7-Feb	$808k a	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Dec 22.
San Vicente S (G2)	SA	7-Feb	$200k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 28.
Sweet Life S (G3T)	SA	7-Feb	$100k g	3yo f	6f	Turf	Closed on Jan 28.
Louisiana Premier Bon Temps Starter	DeD	10-Feb	$40k g	4&up f/m S	5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Championship	DeD	10-Feb	$125k g	4&up S	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Distaff	DeD	10-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Gentlemen Starter	DeD	10-Feb	$50k g	4&up S	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Ladies Starter	DeD	10-Feb	$50k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Matron	DeD	10-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m S	5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Prince	DeD	10-Feb	$100k g	3yo S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Ragin Cajun Starter	DeD	10-Feb	$40k g	4&up S	5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Sprint	DeD	10-Feb	$100k g	4&up S	5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Starlet	DeD	10-Feb	$100k g	3yo f S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
A.T.B.A. Sales S	TuP	12-Feb	$35k a	4&up f/m R	6.5f	Dirt	Not Available
A.T.B.A. Sales S	TuP	12-Feb	$35k a	4&up c/g R	6.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Broadway S	Aqu	13-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Albert M. Stall Memorial S	FG	13-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 30.
Colonel Power S	FG	13-Feb	$100k g	4&up	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 30.
Fair Grounds S (G3T)	FG	13-Feb	$150k g	4&up	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 30.
Mineshaft S (G3)	FG	13-Feb	$200k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Rachel Alexandra S Presented by Fasig-Tipton (G2)	FG	13-Feb	$300k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Risen Star S Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2)	FG	13-Feb	$400k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
El Camino Real Derby	GG	13-Feb	$100k g	3yo	9f	AW	Closed on Feb 4.
Gulfstream Park Sprint (G3)	GP	13-Feb	$100k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 31.
Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint (G3T)	GP	13-Feb	$100k g	4&up	5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 31.
Queen Cup (G3T)	JRA	13-Feb	$721k a	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Jan 5.
Santa Monica S (G2)	SA	13-Feb	$200k g	4&up f/m	7f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 4.
Minaret S	Tam	13-Feb	$50k g	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Pelican S	Tam	13-Feb	#$100k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Gander S	Aqu	14-Feb	$100k g	3yo S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Kyodo News Service Hai (G3T)	JRA	14-Feb	$780k a	3yo	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 5.
Kyoto Kinen (G2T)	JRA	14-Feb	$1,283k a	4&up	11f	Turf	Closed on Jan 5.
Hollie Hughes	Aqu	15-Feb	$100k g	4&up S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Wishing Well S	SA	15-Feb	$75k a	4&up f/m	6.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 4.
Mardi Gras S	FG	16-Feb	$75k g	4&up f/m	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 6.
Al Rahji Bank Saudi International H	Sau	19-Feb	$500k g	3&up	10.5f	Turf	Not Available
Queen of the Green S	TuP	19-Feb	$30k g	3&up f/m	8f	Turf	Not Available
Walter R. Cluer Memorial S	TuP	19-Feb	$28k a	3&up	8f	Turf	Not Available
Maddie May S	Aqu	20-Feb	$100k g	3yo f S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 6.
Grasmick S	Fon	20-Feb	$15k a	3&up	4f	Dirt	$0/Feb 16
Royal Delta S (G3)	GP	20-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 7.
Houston Turf S	Hou	20-Feb	$75k g	4&up S	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 10.
H-Town S	Hou	20-Feb	$75k g	4&up S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 10.
Jim's Orbit S	Hou	20-Feb	$75k g	3yo c/g S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Miss Bluebonnet Turf S	Hou	20-Feb	$75k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 10.
Two Altazano S	Hou	20-Feb	$75k g	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Diamond S (G3T)	JRA	20-Feb	$838k a	4&up	17f	Turf	Closed on Jan 5.
Kyoto Himba S (G3T)	JRA	20-Feb	$737k a	4&up f/m	7f	Turf	Closed on Jan 5.
General George S (G3)	Lrl	20-Feb	$250k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
John B. Campbell S	Lrl	20-Feb	$100k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Miracle Wood S	Lrl	20-Feb	$100k g	3yo	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Nellie Morse S	Lrl	20-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Runhappy Barbara Fritchie S (G3)	Lrl	20-Feb	$250k g	4&up f/m	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Wide Country S	Lrl	20-Feb	$100k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Buena Vista S (G2T)	SA	20-Feb	$200k g	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 11.
Al Rahji Bank Saudi Derby	Sau	20-Feb	$1,500k g	3yo	8f	Dirt	Not Available
Jockey Club Local H	Sau	20-Feb	$1,000k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	Not Available
Neom Turf Cup	Sau	20-Feb	$1,000k g	3&up	abt 10.5f	Turf	Not Available
Red Sea Turf H	Sau	20-Feb	$2,500k g	3&up	15f	Turf	Not Available
Saudi Cup	Sau	20-Feb	$20,000k g	3&up	9f	Dirt	Not Available
SAUDIA Riyadh Dirt Sprint	Sau	20-Feb	$1,500k g	3&up	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Turf Sprint	Sau	20-Feb	$1,000k g	3&up	abt 6.5f	Turf	Not Available
February S (G1) BC	JRA	21-Feb	$2,058k a	4&up	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 5.
Kokura Daishoten (G3T)	JRA	21-Feb	$838k a	4&up	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 5.
Lightning City S	Tam	24-Feb	#$100k g	4&up f/m	5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 6.
Turf Dash S	Tam	24-Feb	#$100k g	4&up	5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 6.
Cincinnati Trophy S	TP	26-Feb	#$65k g	3yo f	6.5f	AW	Closed on Feb 17.
John Battaglia Memorial S	TP	26-Feb	#$100k g	3yo	8.5f	AW	Closed on Feb 17.
Stymie S	Aqu	27-Feb	$125k g	4&up	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 13.
Black Gold S	FG	27-Feb	$75k g	3yo	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 13.
Dixie Poker Ace S	FG	27-Feb	$60k g	4&up S	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 13.
Bold Accent S	Fon	27-Feb	$15k a	3&up f/m	4f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 20.
Canadian Turf S (G3T)	GP	27-Feb	$125k g	4&up	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 14.
Davona Dale S (G2)	GP	27-Feb	$200k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 14.
Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S (G2)	GP	27-Feb	$300k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 14.
Herecomesthebride S (G3T)	GP	27-Feb	$100k g	3yo f	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 14.
Honey Fox S (G3T)	GP	27-Feb	$125k g	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 14.
Mac Diarmida S (G2T)	GP	27-Feb	$200k g	4&up	11f	Turf	Closed on Feb 14.
Palm Beach S	GP	27-Feb	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 14.
The Very One S (G3T)	GP	27-Feb	$125k g	4&up f/m	9.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 14.
WinStar Gulfstream Park Mile (G2)	GP	27-Feb	$200k g	4&up	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 14.
Houston Turf S	Hou	27-Feb	$75k g	4&up S	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 10.
H-Town S	Hou	27-Feb	$75k g	4&up S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 10.
Jim's Orbit S	Hou	27-Feb	$75k g	3yo c/g S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Miss Bluebonnet Turf S	Hou	27-Feb	$75k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 10.
Two Altazano S	Hou	27-Feb	$75k g	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Razorback H (G3)	OP	27-Feb	$600k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Southwest S (G3)	OP	27-Feb	$750k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Spring Fever S	OP	27-Feb	$200k g	4&up f/m	5.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Pasadena S	SA	27-Feb	$100k g	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 18.
Hankyu Hai (G3T)	JRA	28-Feb	$838k a	4&up	7f	Turf	Closed on Jan 12.
Nakayama Kinen (G2T)	JRA	28-Feb	$1,383k a	4&up	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 12.
Bayakoa S (G3)	OP	44255	$250k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Dixie Belle S	OP	44255	$150k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Downthedustyroad S	OP	44255	$150k g	4&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Tiznow S	SA	44255	$100k g	4&up S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 18.

Table includes all scheduled thoroughbred stakes races for North America.

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January 30-31 will have some great stakes racing back on the board in the thoroughbred industry, for those of you missing football or any of your other favorite weekend sports.

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Talented 3yos will take the field in the Holy Bull G3 and Bob Lewis G3 as they take aim at the Kentucky Derby from opposite sides of the continent. Don’t miss the action and stay tuned here for great picks.

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Check out this lineup:

January 30, 2021
Toboggan S (G3)	Aqu	Jan 30	$150k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 16.
Forward Gal S (G3)	GP	Jan 30	$100k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 17.
Holy Bull S (G3)	GP	Jan 30	$200k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 17.
Kitten’s Joy S (G3T)	GP	Jan 30	$100k g	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Jan 17.
Swale S (G3)	GP	Jan 30	$100k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 17.
Sweetest Chant S (G3T)	GP	Jan 30	$100k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Jan 17.
Darby’s Daughter S	Hou	Jan 30	$75k g	3yo f R	5.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jun 1.
My Dandy S	Hou	Jan 30	$75k g	3yo c/g R	5.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jul 1.
American Beauty S	OP	Jan 30	$150k g	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 14.
Martha Washington S	OP	Jan 30	$200k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 14.
Robert B. Lewis S (G3)	SA	Jan 30	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
San Pasqual S (G2)	SA	Jan 30	$200k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
January 31, 2021
Jimmy Winkfield S	Aqu	Jan 31	$100k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 16.
Frontier Utilities Turf Sprint	Hou	Jan 31	$100k g	4&up	5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 20.
Houston Ladies Classic (G3)	Hou	Jan 31	$300k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 20.
Jersey Lilly Turf S	Hou	Jan 31	$75k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 20.
John B. Connally Turf Cup (G3T)	Hou	Jan 31	$200k g	4&up	12f	Turf	Closed on Jan 20.
Stonerside Sprint	Hou	Jan 31	$75k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 20.
Texas Turf Mile	Hou	Jan 31	$200k g	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Jan 20.
Negishi S (G3)	JRA	Jan 31	$780k a	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 22.
Silk Road S (G3T)	JRA	Jan 31	$808k a	4&up	6f	Turf	Closed on Dec 22.

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Monday, January 11, 2021.  Wildcard weekend is over and the action was wild as usual, so there’s a good bit of Monday morning quarterbacking to conduct today.  Among the surprises were the Steelers spotting the Browns a 28 point first quarter lead, setting up for Big Ben to set new playoff records for pass attempts and completions in a game.

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The Steelers defense completely falling apart was as surprising as the high flying Seahawks offense not being able to move the ball against the Rams.  So the two wild card surprise winners provided some great fantasy points for the contrarians, and punished people who made conventional picks.

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In the NFL Playoff challenge, the list of week 1 leaders is full of surprises for most of us, except at quarterback where the only big surprise was Heineken, who hasn’t played much this year.  Without going over all of them, here’s the leaderboard.

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If you’re in the NFL Playoff Challenge, chances are you did not have anywhere close to the Best Lineup pictured above. But rue not.  Note that 3 of them lost in week 1, and 4 of them will probably lose next weekend in the divisional round.  That leaves 1 that should move on, but that’s not guaranteed. 

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We’re in this for the long haul, so I’m happy to have Josh Allen at QB, Kamara at RB, Diggs and Thomas at WR, Tyler Bass as pillow fighter, and the Saints Defense. All are playing week 2 for 2x whatever points they earn.  As advertised last week, we stacked up on Bills and Saints and got some decent points.

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Unfortunately for the Bills and Saints, they have the toughest games next weekend, as the Bills will have their hands full with double threat Lamar Jackson and the Saints have to stop playoff perennial Tom Brady.  There is no guarantee either will advance, and if they both don’t, this team is over. 

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The reason being, if you insert new players in week 3 for the conference championships, you get no multiplier bonus whereas the winning fantasy teams are earning 2x and 3x points for all their players.  You will have basically no chance to win unless it’s maybe just 1 player.  

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So if either the Bills or Saints were going to lose, they should have done it in week 1 so I could load up on Packers and Chieves this next weekend.  As it is, I must stick with the crew and hope the 2 seeds both win and play at least a 3^rd game for 3x points.  I only have 2 slots open, 1 RB and 1 TE, of players not advancing.  

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The TE slot poorly filled by Marc Andrews in week 1 was a placeholder for Kelce next weekend and hopefully 2 games after that.  The RB slot was slated for Aaron Jones but will require some consideration since they drew the best defense in the playoffs for next week.  Not to mention KC faces the worst defense of any remaining playoff team.

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In the NFL playoff challenge, you can reload with whatever player you want at any position.  But keep in mind any active player you remove, you will miss out on 2x their points this weekend and possibly 3x their points the next week and 4x if they reach the superbowl.  So it takes some strategizing.

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If you have Allen or Brees, you have to keep them.  By design, I don’t have the conundrum of having to replace Lamar Jackson, but if I did I would reluctantly replace him with Mahomes and sacrifice the 2x.  If you lost players in week 1, here’s the recommended restocking list.

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Quarterback:

P Mahomes

A Rodgers

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Running back:

A Jones or Edwards-Helaire? See below.

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Wide Receiver:

T Hill

D Adams

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Tight End:

Kelce

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Defense:

Packers

Chieves

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Pillow Fighter:

H Butker

M Crosby

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Most of this is straightforward, and don’t consider another TE besides Kelce in this league, but the RB situation is difficult.  Obviously in a DFS situation you would try to squeeze in both Jones and Helaire if possible, and should be possible in a Sat-Sun contest for both days.  However, the initial outlook for Jones isn’t great.

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Next up for Green Bay is the Rams, who allowed less than 90 yards total to RB’s and only 2 TD’s total for the high flying Seahawks.  Next up would likely be the Saints, who allowed less than 50 yards total rushing last week including the QB runs, and gave up the 2^nd least amount of rushing TD’s in the NFL (behind Tampa).  If GB survives those contests, Jones would finally get a good matchup.

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Edwards-Helaire on the other hand, has a patsy matchup next weekend with Cleveland, who may have only allowed 52 yards on the ground last week, but they also had a 28 point first quarter lead.  They allowed the second most TD’s in the NFL during the regular season.  Next up would preferably be the Bills, who allowed a playoff-team high 21 rushing TD’s, but the Ravens can be run on also.

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So you can see my mind is not made up on the issue, given the evidence.  Jones gets more yards and a twice as many TD’s on average, but has bad matchups.  Helaire has cake walks and a higher probability of actually playing multiple games whereas Jones will need a lot of Rodgers just to get past the Rams.

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In fact, at this point, it’s tempting to dump all the other Bills and replace them with Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Kelce, and Helaire.  Because the Chieves road back to the Superbowl is looking the most solid of any team remaining, and 3 games are the most probably.

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But then if the Bills win again, you will feel foolish for not getting 2x points and then 3x the next week whether they win or lose in the Conference final.  Then if they make the Superbowl and you dumped all your Bills, you’ll have to find a high bridge.

You might think, what’s the big deal, it’s just a trip to the Superbowl on the line?  But you can’t even get into that game for less than 2 grand nowadays, and very few people can get in.  Hotel and airfare, that’s another 2 grand.  It has some good monetary value, even if you don’t want the once in a lifetime experience yourself.

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Next weekend’s matchups: 

LA Rams at Green Bay:  Good for Rams, bad news for Packers

Baltimore at Buffalo:  Good for Baltimore RB’s including the QB, neutral for all others

Cleveland at Kansas City:  Good for both teams

Tampa Bay at New Orleans:  bad for running backs, good for others

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We’ll see what these teams are made of, but statistically the Ravens look really good on paper despite their inferior record.  They have the highest point differential in the NFL, meaning they blew some teams out, and allowed the second least amount of points, behind only the Rams. 

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2^nd in point differential are the mighty Saints, who did it without Brees for 4.5 games.  Behind them in PD are the Packers, Bucs, Bills, then Chieves, in that order.  Not surprisingly, all 6 of these top PD teams are in the second round of the playoffs, which is why PD is a good indicator.

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Joining them are the offensively challenged Rams with the best point defense in the league.  And the Browns, who actually have a negative PD and don’t have any business being in the playoffs in the first place.  They should get annihilated by the Chieves but will put up a few points in doing so.

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The only lock of the week is the Chieves -10.  The other 3 favorites should also win but on historical average, 1 of them always loses in the Divisional Round.  The most vulnerable, for reasons above, appears to be the Bills.  But they’ve won 7 in a row and had the #1 strength of schedule among playoff teams in their 13 win season.

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Stay tuned for more NFL updates on this channel, and good luck!

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Saturday, January 09, 2021.  The NFL playoff challenge starts today.  If you’re unfamiliar with the contest, it’s a free entry on NFL and currently unknown what the grand prize is, but it’s usually quite nice. 

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In this contest you pick 8 players and you get a multiplier for their points for each game that they play, so in their 2^nd game you get 2x points, 3^rd game 3x points, etc.  So naturally you want to pick players from the teams that will go the farthest.  But you also get to select new players each round.

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The new playoff system is confusing for many, so take a look at it here, this is the best graphical representation.

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Obviously picking players from the top two teams is a good idea, in this contest, but not until round 2.  What you want to do is get the players from round 1 that you think will go the farthest, especially the star players.  Then you get 4x their points they get if they reach the superbowl.

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This is our current best model for the playoff results in this picture.  For the team picks it looks like all favs ATS except Steelers who can’t cover a spread this year.

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You can see that we like the Bills and Saints to play the most amount of games from round 1, and either could reach the Superbowl to be practical about it.  So my strategy was to stack up on Bills and Saints players and hope for the best. 

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Of course, filling the roster with all Saints and Bills is impractical.  The Bills running back committee scores 14 points per game total so you would only get decent points out of one of them in their 3^rd or 4^th game if they make it that far.  Use stud players in week 1 instead, and replace them with Packers and Chieves in the second round.

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Here’s my list of best players for this contest.

Alvin Kamara MVP

Josh Allen

Drew Brees

Aaron Rodgers

Patrick Mahomes

Aaron Jones

Devonte Adams

Travis Kelce

Stephon Diggs

Tyreek Hill

Edwards Helaire

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There are a host of good first round players that will probably win but not play more than one game.  I’m not distinguishing between them and first round players that I think will lose, because I’ll be sacrificing the bonus points to replace them with Packers and Chieves in the second round.

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We developed division rankings based on strength of schedule for this analysis, as well offensive and defensive stats.  The final division rankings:

1. AFC East 134
2. AFC West 132
3. NFC South 131
4. NFC West 127
5. AFC North 126
6. AFC South 125
7. NFC North 125
8. NFC East 120

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January 2021. The schedule of stakes races for North America and Japan Racing Association is quite strong again with over 100 stakes races on tap. Gulfstream will be the epicenter as usual for January, with Santa Anita in close second if they can keep the fascist governor from closing it again.

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January 2021 Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan

Race	Track	Date	Purse	Age Sex	Dist.	Surface	Fee and Date
Jerome S	Aqu	01-Jan	$150k g	3yo	8f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 19.
Abundantia S	GP	01-Jan	$75k g	4&up f/m	5f	Turf	Closed on Dec 19.
Cash Run S	GP	01-Jan	$75k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 19.
Janus S	GP	01-Jan	$75k g	4&up	5f	Turf	Closed on Dec 19.
Joe Hernandez S (G2T)	SA	01-Jan	$200k g	4&up	6.5f	Turf	Closed on Dec 17.
Gravesend	Aqu	02-Jan	$100k g	3&up	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 19.
Dania Beach S	GP	02-Jan	$75k g	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Dec 20.
Ginger Brew S	GP	02-Jan	$75k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Dec 20.
Glitter Woman	GP	02-Jan	$75k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 20.
Limehouse	GP	02-Jan	$75k g	3yo	6f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 20.
Mucho Macho Man S	GP	02-Jan	$100k g	3yo	8f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 20.
San Gabriel S (G2T)	SA	02-Jan	$200k g	4&up	9f	Turf	Closed on Dec 17.
Sham S (G3)	SA	02-Jan	$100k g	3yo	8f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 17.
La Verdad S	Aqu	03-Jan	$100k g	4&up f/m S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 19.
Santa Ynez S (G2)	SA	03-Jan	$200k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 17.
Sam's Town	DeD	04-Jan	$60k g	4&up	5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 21.
Hank Mills Sr. S	TuP	04-Jan	$28k a	4&up	6.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Orleans	DeD	05-Jan	$60k g	4&up f/m	5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 21.
Kyoto Kimpai (G3T)	JRA	05-Jan	$838k a	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Nov 24.
Nakayama Kimpai (G3T)	JRA	05-Jan	$838k a	4&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Nov 24.
Jeff and Jack Coady Sr. S	TuP	05-Jan	$28k a	4&up f/m	6f	Turf	Not Available
Say Florida Sandy S	Aqu	09-Jan	$100k g	4&up S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 29.
Nelson J. Menard Memorial S	FG	09-Jan	$75k g	4&up f/m	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Dec 26.
Tropical Turf (G3T)	GP	09-Jan	$100k g	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Dec 27.
La Canada S (G3)	SA	09-Jan	$200k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 31.
Las Cienegas S (G3T)	SA	09-Jan	$100k g	4&up f/m	6f	Turf	Closed on Dec 31.
Rego Park S	Aqu	10-Jan	$100k g	3yo S	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 29.
Shinzan Kinen (G3T)	JRA	10-Jan	$780k a	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Nov 24.
Kalookan Queen S	SA	10-Jan	$75k a	4&up f/m	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 31.
Gold Cup	DeD	11-Jan	$75k g	4&up S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 29.
Louisiana Legacy	DeD	11-Jan	$75k g	3yo S	7.5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 29.
Fairy S (G3T)	JRA	11-Jan	$721k a	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Nov 24.
Louisiana Jewel	DeD	12-Jan	$75k g	3yo f S	7.5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 29.
Magnolia S	DeD	12-Jan	$75k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 29.
Forego S	TP	15-Jan	#$65k g	4&up	6.5f	AW	$0/Jan 6
Franklin Square S	Aqu	16-Jan	$100k g	3yo f S	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Colonel E.R. Bradley S	FG	16-Jan	$125k g	4&up	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 2.
Duncan F. Kenner S	FG	16-Jan	$100k g	4&up	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 2.
Lecomte S (G3)	FG	16-Jan	$200k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Louisiana S (G3)	FG	16-Jan	$125k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Marie G. Krantz Memorial S	FG	16-Jan	$100k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 2.
Silverbulletday S	FG	16-Jan	$150k g	3yo f	8.32f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Sunshine Millions Classic	GP	16-Jan	$75k g	4&up S	9f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 3.
Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf	GP	16-Jan	$75k g	4&up f/m S	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 3.
Sunshine Millions Sprint	GP	16-Jan	$75k g	4&up S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 3.
Sunshine Millions Turf	GP	16-Jan	$75k g	4&up S	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 3.
Aichi Hai (G3T)	JRA	16-Jan	$737k a	4&up f/m	10f	Turf	Closed on Dec 8.
Fire Plug S	Lrl	16-Jan	$100k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Geisha S	Lrl	16-Jan	$75k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Jennings S	Lrl	16-Jan	$75k g	4&up S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Spectacular Bid S	Lrl	16-Jan	$100k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
What a Summer S	Lrl	16-Jan	$100k g	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Xtra Heat S	Lrl	16-Jan	$100k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
California Cup Derby	SA	16-Jan	$200k g	3yo S	8.5f	Dirt	$100/Jan 7
California Cup Oaks	SA	16-Jan	$200k g	3yo f S	8f	Turf	$100/Jan 7
California Cup Sprint	SA	16-Jan	$150k g	4&up S	6f	Dirt	$100/Jan 7
Sunshine Millions Filly/Mare Turf Sprint	SA	16-Jan	$150k g	4&up f/m S	6f	Turf	$100/Jan 7
Unusual Heat Turf Classic	SA	16-Jan	$200k g	4&up S	9f	Turf	$100/Jan 7
Gasparilla S	Tam	16-Jan	#$125k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Pasco S	Tam	16-Jan	#$125k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Wayward Lass S	Tam	16-Jan	$50k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Ladies H	Aqu	17-Jan	$100k g	4&up f/m	9f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Keisei Hai (G3T)	JRA	17-Jan	$780k a	3yo	10f	Turf	Closed on Dec 8.
Nikkei Shinshun Hai (G2T)	JRA	17-Jan	$1,173k a	4&up	11f	Turf	Closed on Dec 8.
Astra S (G3T)	SA	17-Jan	$100k g	4&up f/m	12f	Turf	$100/Jan 7
Interborough S	Aqu	18-Jan	$100k g	4&up f/m	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Megahertz S (G3T)	SA	18-Jan	$100k g	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	$100/Jan 7
Smarty Jones S	OP	22-Jan	$150k g	3yo	8f	Dirt	$100/Jan 7
Jazil S	Aqu	23-Jan	$100k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	$100/Jan 9
Fred W. Hooper (G3)	GP	23-Jan	$125k g	4&up	8f	Dirt	$0/Jan 10
Inside Information S (G2)	GP	23-Jan	$200k g	4&up f/m	7f	Dirt	$0/Jan 10
La Prevoyante (G3T)	GP	23-Jan	$125k g	4&up f/m	12f	Turf	$0/Jan 10
Marshua's River S (G3T)	GP	23-Jan	$125k g	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	$0/Jan 10
Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1)	GP	23-Jan	$3,000k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	Not Available
Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1T)	GP	23-Jan	$1,000k g	4&up	9.5f	Turf	Not Available
William L. McKnight (G3T)	GP	23-Jan	$150k g	4&up	12f	Turf	$0/Jan 10
Fifth Season S	OP	23-Jan	$150k g	4&up	8f	Dirt	$0/Jan 7
Pippin S	OP	23-Jan	$150k g	4&up f/m	8f	Dirt	$0/Jan 7
Palos Verdes S (G3)	SA	23-Jan	$200k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	$100/Jan 14
Busanda S	Aqu	24-Jan	$100k g	3yo f	9f	Dirt	$100/Jan 9
American Jockey Club Cup (G2T)	JRA	24-Jan	$1,283k a	4&up	11f	Turf	Closed on Dec 8.
Tokai S (G2)	JRA	24-Jan	$1,135k a	4&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 8.
Clockers' Corner S	SA	24-Jan	$70k a	4&up R	6f	Turf	$0/Jan 14
Luke Kruytbosch S	TuP	28-Jan	$28k a	4&up	8f	Dirt	Not Available
City of Phoenix S	TuP	29-Jan	$28k a	4&up f/m	8f	Dirt	Not Available
Toboggan S (G3)	Aqu	30-Jan	$150k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	$150/Jan 16
Forward Gal S (G3)	GP	30-Jan	$100k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	$0/Jan 17
Holy Bull S (G3)	GP	30-Jan	$200k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Jan 17
Kitten's Joy S (G3T)	GP	30-Jan	$100k g	3yo	8f	Turf	$0/Jan 17
Swale S (G3)	GP	30-Jan	$100k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	$0/Jan 17
Sweetest Chant S (G3T)	GP	30-Jan	$100k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	$0/Jan 17
Darby's Daughter S	Hou	30-Jan	$75k g	3yo f R	5.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jun 1.
My Dandy S	Hou	30-Jan	$75k g	3yo c/g R	5.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jul 1.
American Beauty S	OP	30-Jan	$150k g	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$0/Jan 14
Martha Washington S	OP	30-Jan	$200k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	$0/Jan 14
Robert B. Lewis S (G3)	SA	30-Jan	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	$100/Jan 21
San Marcos S (G2T)	SA	30-Jan	$200k g	4&up	10f	Turf	$100/Jan 21
San Pasqual S (G2)	SA	30-Jan	$200k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	$100/Jan 21
Jimmy Winkfield S	Aqu	31-Jan	$100k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	$100/Jan 16
Frontier Utilities Turf Sprint	Hou	31-Jan	$100k g	4&up	5f	Turf	$0/Jan 20
Houston Ladies Classic (G3)	Hou	31-Jan	$300k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Jan 20
Jersey Lilly Turf S	Hou	31-Jan	$75k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	$0/Jan 20
John B. Connally Turf Cup (G3T)	Hou	31-Jan	$200k g	4&up	12f	Turf	$0/Jan 20
Stonerside Sprint	Hou	31-Jan	$75k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	$0/Jan 20
Texas Turf Mile	Hou	31-Jan	$200k g	3yo	8f	Turf	$0/Jan 20
Negishi S (G3)	JRA	31-Jan	$780k a	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 22.
Silk Road S (G3T)	JRA	31-Jan	$808k a	4&up	6f	Turf	Closed on Dec 22.
Baffle S	SA	31-Jan	$75k a	3yo	6.5f	Turf	$0/Jan 21

This table contains all scheduled stakes races for North America and graded stakes races for the Japan Racing Association.

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Saturday, December 12.  The Fair Grounds in New Orleans holds their annual Louisiana Champions Day, which means 7 stakes races for thoroughbreds and 3 more for quarterhorses to start the day, meaning 10 stakes in all.  Fortunately, we got you covered for all of them with the Grid and some analysis.  Grab today’s free grid to follow along.

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We shall skip past the quarters since I know little to nothing about analyzing them, and the Grid knows more than I do.  Starting in race 5 we will have our first thoroughbred stakes race at about 3PM ET.  First post is at 1PM ET with a quarterhorse stakes.  The track is muddy and the turf is yielding so beware.

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R5 2:58ET 6f D LaLassieB100k 2 YO F

It’s hard to find much value in this one.  All the single digit fillies are winners, most of them first out.  The only value contenders are then 8-1 Tecate Time who was 3^rd in the La Cup Juve Fillies behind 4-1 Rue Lala.  Spirited Beauty 6-1 should contend in her return to dirt. The 3 double digit long shots, no shot.

Prediction:  5 1 6 8 3 2

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R7 3:56ET 6f D La LdiesSpB100k 3 UP FM

Not a lot more value here on the morning line, with no double digits listed for one, so you’ll have to wait for closer to post time.  Snowball 9-2 runs late but ends up in 1^st as in her last 3, including the La Cup FM, where she beat Our Lost Love 6-1 who could turn the tables as the only frontrunner in the race.  Mr. Al’s Gal 3-1 will be hard to beat pressing the pace.  Southern Beauty is the next best value at 8-1.

Prediction:  3 2 4 7 8 1

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R8 4:25ET 8.5f T La LadiesTB100k 3 UP FM

Short field of 7 and there may be scratches.  It’s all about Room to Finish in this one.

Prediction:  5 6 2 3 1

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R9 4:54ET 6f D LaSprintB100k 3 UP 

This field has 9 entries but the prime contenders seem fairly obvious again and are less than 5-1 on the morning line.  I like those 4 plus Win Ya Win and Silver Galaxy both at 12-1 to hopefully add spice and price.

Prediction:  4 2 1 9 8

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R10 5:23ET 6f D LaJuvenilB100k 2 YO 

Alas a double digit field of 12 so lots of choices and some value scattered around. Chu Chu’s Legacy will be hard to catch and I doubt his odds of 9-2 will hold up, and he’ll probably be the post time favorite, rather than Sir Wellington who’s very solid so far. Cohere at 8-1 is my 2^nd choice, and I always like winners first time out.  Ready for Love will run in race 13 KT’s Jilted Groom would have been about 8-1 coming off his debut, and now comes off a bad outing, but 30-1 is ridiculous.  Super long shot special alert.  Make sure you check out this year’s American Free Handicap for the top rated juveniles.

Prediction:  4 9 7 6 8 10  

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R11 5:52ET 8.5f T LaTurfB100k 3 UP 

It’s hard to go against top LP and power in a turf route, and those honors belong to Budro Talking 4-1 and the favorite Ninety One Assault.  Technically top LP belongs to Jax Man, but he’s also lowest in Power and he’s an alternate. There’s not a whole lot of speed so Sydster or Carlea’s Dream could hit as well as nice double digit dogs Afleet Ascent and Unrestricted. LSS alert.

Prediction:  2 9 8 5 6 1

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R12 6:21ET 9f D LaClassicB150k 3 UP 

My top 3 are the same as the ML and in basically the same order so that doesn’t bode well for prices. Sydster was cross entered but they wisely chose this race in which he’ll be the sole frontrunner.  Grand Luwegee and Jus Lively look good because of the lack of speed, and people apparently already forgot Mageez won his last 2 dirt races. 

Prediction:  8 7 4 3 6 5

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That’s it for the stakes racing.  In race 13, Fifty Protection had a strong 2^nd in his debut.  Brad Cox’s first timer will factor in for sure, but look for the other trainers with good Win/ITM numbers shown in the Grid.  There’s a reason we have those.  Thus endeth today’s lesson. Good luck!

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The Grid can be obtained for all your favorite tracks and races here.