Weekend Winners Club

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Wednesday, November 25, 2020.  The first futures pool for the Kentucky Derby 2021 edition opens this Thursday, Thanksgiving Day and will run thru Sunday.  The Juveniles have already been running for Derby points, starting on this year’s Derby day in September, and 22 have their own entry in the futures pool.

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Meet the contenders.

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We have the Pool 1 Grid all ready for you this week and the first 2021 Derby Double Dozen rankings will be release later in the week.  Download the full Futures Grid here and start making your own picks, then get ready for the Dozen and find out who the best bets are.

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The Field is of course the heavy favorite in Pool 1 as it is every year, with Essential Quality listed at 10-1 ML as the deserving individual entry favorite, as the BCJ winner usually is.  Not far behind is Baffert’s Life Is Good who arrived on the scene with a debut 9 length win last weekend. 

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Speaking of which, its wasn’t the field, also 6-5 ML last year and closing at a ridiculous 1-1, that won this year’s Kentucky Derby.  It was Baffert’s Authentic, opening at 20-1 in Pool 1 and closing at 50-1.  So he was an example of a rare Pool 1 bet that not only ran but won on Derby day.

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You probably wish you boxed him with Tiz the Law in an exacta last November, which ended up paying $4 grand, much more than on Derby day.  I’ve never bet the Derby exacta that early before, so in this analysis we’re going to figure out if you should do it this year.  Every year is different so let’s check it out.

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In 2019 you recall the Derby was all screwed up with the DQ, but neither Maximum Security or Country House were in Pool 1.  The only way you would have won money was to have the Field on top of Code of Honor in an exacta, and even so, that only would have worked because of the DQ.  It paid a respectable $171 with Code of Honor at 18-1 in Pool 1.  But that exacta paid $3 grand on Derby day.

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Here’s what happened from pool 1 in prior years this decade: 

2018:  Justify hadn’t debuted yet.  Field over Good Magic paid $52, less than on Derby day.

2017:  Always Dreaming was field.  Field over Lookin at Lee paid $161, less than half the Derby payday.

2016:  Nyquist individual fav at 9-1, Derby Day 2-1. Future exacta with Exaggerator paid $194, but only $30 Derby day.

2015:  American Pharoah 12-1 (5-2 Derby day).  Field exacta paid $58, Derby day $72. 

2014:  California Chrome and Commanding Curve were both field 4-5.  5-2 and 37-1 Derby day.

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Prior to 2014, Pool 1 did not begin until February, so it’s a bit of apples and oranges to compare.  In only two of the 7 cases above were both the winner and runner up found in Pool 1, in which case it was profitable to bet that exacta, especially for 2020. 

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In all the other years but 2014, a field with the eventual winner or runner up in the exacta box was the winner, usually with the field on top.  So this looks like the best winning bet, but is it? Let’s analyze.  You noticed that the exacta paid less than the Derby payout for every field/entry box.  But you also get a lot of unnamed horses in the field in one bet rather than boxing however many.

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The second thing to keep in mind is that if you don’t box the right individual entry with the field, then you win nothing.  The best bet is probably to take your favorite 3, 4, or 5, or however many in your budget, individual entries and box them with the field.  Include some good long shots and Baffert trainees. 

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Bet to win on any of those at 20-1 or better that you think have a good chance, or even at 10-1 or better if you think they have a really good shot at it.  Remember it’s Pool 1, and most of these entries won’t even run for the roses next May.  In 2019, only 5 Pool 1 horses made the field, in 2020 only6 made it.

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It’s really early, and only 25% of the horses listed will even run for the roses on average, so you have to get really good odds to bet it.  That’s why betting the field to win is horrible bet at even money or anything less than 5-1 to be honest.  It is however, good to include with your exacta box as shown above.

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Stay tuned for the first Derby Double Dozen this week and remember there is a key juvenile race at Churchill this weekend, so pay attention to whether your favs are running in that or not before deciding when you will bet. 

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Good luck!

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Sunday, November 22.  Weekend graded stakes racing continues at Woodbine today as juveniles take center stage late in the afternoon with a pair of G3’s.  The Grey Stakes for boys and Mazarine for fillies will determine who the top 2yo’s are in Canada right now. 

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History has taught us to not scoff at the Canadian 2yo champs, lest you overlook a horse like Mine That Bird at 50-1 in the Kentucky Derby.  Given, he put on about 100 pounds between that and his Canadian victories, but that can happen.  It can also happen that a horse freaks on dirt after running poly. 

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Today we’ll just handicap the two graded races and you can do the rest.  After all, this shit is free, so we’re not doing everything for you.  Grab today’s free Woodbine Grid and follow along.

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R10 5:58ET 8.5f A Grey-G3 2 YO:  8 7 1 3 4 9 5     LSS 4 9 5

Casse’s Posse of two will both finish ITM, and when he’s got a pair in the race, always go with the longer price.  Easy Time had an easy time in his only outing and his PF is on the same level as Helium’s two.  The pair of them has the top 3 PF’s on the board.  20-1 Lucky Score had comparable speed last out but 8.5f is a bit farther than 5.5f.  Gospel Way can’t beat Helium but can beat most others.  Barrister Tom could throw a wrench into everything if he likes the AW.  The winner of this race could appear as an individual entry in the Derby Futures Pool starting Thursday so watch out.

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R11 6:28ET 8.5f A Mazarine-G3 2 YO F:  7 2 1 6 4                LSS 2

It’s a short field of 7 so don’t bank too much on it, but rather increase your base amount.  Once again we have a Casse pair, including the heavy favorite Souper Sensational.  But remember what I said above.  Sleek Lynx at 8-1 only lost by 4.5 in a G1 on turf, and if she likes the poly could give Casse two exactas in a row.  Bottom line, bet the two Casse exactas in the two G3’s.

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Other assorted LSS’s that you should heed attention to.  Note this list only includes 8-1 or higher on the morning line, not all contenders.  The point is to break the bank.

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R1 1:25ET 6f A OClm 40000 3 UP FM:  LSS 7 6 5

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R2 1:55ET 5f A Clm 15000 3 UP:  LSS 7 5 2

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R3 2:25ET 6.5f A MSW 2 YO F 126800:  LSS 1 6

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R4 2:55ET 7f A Md 5000 3 UP:  7 11

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R5 3:28ET 6.5f A MSW 2 YO  126800:  9

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R6 3:58ET 5.5f A Moc 40000 2 YO: 3 4

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R7 4:28ET 12f A Alw 101200n1x 3 UP:  5 6

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R8 4:58ET 6f A Clm 15000n2l 3 UP:  4 8

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R9 5:28ET 8.5f A Clm 5000 3 UP:  8 13

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R12 6:58ET 6f A OClm 40000 3 UP: 4 7 10

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R13 7:28ET 8.5f A Clm 5000n2l 3 UP:  5 7 12

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That’s it for today my friends. There are plenty of long shot specials to go around so get your 2 bucks ready.   You can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks here.  Stay tuned to this site right here to get the first 2021 Derby Double Dozen since the Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 1 begins this week.

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Good luck!

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Saturday, November 21.  Woodbine has a great weekend of racing lined up with 5 graded stakes races along with other assorted contest in every possible category.  Today will have the Ontario Derby G3, Kennedy Road G2, Bessarabian G2, and Ontario Damsel Stakes.

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Racing is already underway so we’re just going to handicap the graded stakes races which start at about 5pm.  The Damsel looks chalky and has a short field anyway and Avie’s Samurai is the only long shot I like.  In some of the other undercard races here are some good long shot specials (LSS).  

R4:  8,5

R5: 6

R6:  9,13,11

R7:  4, 7

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Alas, we get to the stakes races.  Grab today’s free Woodbine Grid to follow along and make your picks.

R8 4:58ET 9f A OntroDby-G3 3 YO:  6 8 1 4 2        LSS 8 4 3

Mighty Heart is the strongest on paper and excels on the AW.  There’s not much speed so I give Malibu Mambo a great chance, he has top LP and keeps improving.  Mnemba Island keeps improving also but the late runner will have to close earlier.

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R9 5:28ET 6f A KenndyRd-G2 3 UP:  CHALK         LSS 1 5

Pink Lloyd is the class of the field for sure and deserving favorite.  Silent Poet may not like the AW which will open things up for Dixie’s Gamble and Souper Stonehenge, who do like the poly, at great prices.

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R10 5:58ET 7f A Bessarbn-G2 3 UP FM:  6 4 2 1 3               LSS 6 4 2 7

You gotta like it when the top 3 picks in a race are all long shot specials.  Well 6 Jakarta is 6-1 ML it may go down below 5 or it may go up, who knows.  If she likes the AW, I doubt any can catch her. The other 2 will be above 5-1 most likely.  Great LSS possibilities here.

Race 11, I like the 4 single digit steeds, some of which the odds look good now but they’ll likely all be at 5-1 or less at post time.

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That’s it for today.  Make some good picks and win some good bucks.  Remember tomorrow the Grey and Mazarine Stakes at Woodbine will provide some good insight into the top Canadian juvenile scene.

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You can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks right here.

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November 19, 2020.  The 2021 Kentucky Derby Central subsite has been deployed and updated. The pages that are updated weekly after each qualifying race include the following popular pages:

2021 Derby Points Leaders

2021 Derby Prep and Championship Series Races and Results

2020 American Free Handicap 2yo rankings

The links for these pages will remain static on the top menu if looking at it on a pc/desktop interface or side menu when looking thru a phone or small tablet browser.

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Coming next week will be the first 2021 Kentucky Derby Double Dozen top 25 rankings which will automatically appear at that link once they are uploaded. The main reason for that timing is that Derby 2021 Futures Pool 1 will begin on Thursday, November 26, so keep an eye out for that.  Last year I got Authentic in Pool 1 at 50-1 which paid me $500 on Derby day, so it’s nice to get in on it early.

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Stay tuned for regular weekly updates right here.  Bookmark this site and visit regularly if you don’t already.

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Saturday, November 14.  Gulfstream Park West, otherwise known as Calder Race Course, holds the Sunshine Millions Preview today, a misleading name all around, since neither today nor the actual Sunshine Millions day in January, will offer $1 million or more in purses.

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Nonetheless, they will run 5 stakes races worth about $300k total with some of Florida’s best horses that didn’t make the Breeders’ Cup for whatever reason.  We’re going to break down these stakes races and make some picks here, including long shot specials (LSS).

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Notes:  The weather in Miami is nice and pleasantly warm today, however, South Florida has been barraged with rain the past few days due to the storm Eta, and thus the two turf races will be run on dirt.  The track is rated fast and all the stakes races were already on dirt.  Short fields on most races.

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Enough dallying around, let’s get to the picks already, so you can stop hitting the scroll down button. First post at 1235PM, stakes racing and Rainbow 6 start at 2PM.  Get today’s free Grid here to follow along and make your own picks.

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R1 12:35ET 6f D Md 25000 2 YO:  1 3 5 6 8 9         LSS 3

R2 1:04ET 6f D OClm 50000 2 YO:  3 7 1 4 6          LSS 1

R3 1:33ET 8.5f T Off Clm 12500n2l 3 UP:  13 8 4 9              LSS 8 9

R4 2:03ET 8f D MilClsPreB60k 3 UP:  2 5 4 1

R5 2:33ET 6.5f D JuvFSprntB60k 2 YO F:  3 2 5 6

R6 3:05ET 6f D MlSprtPrvB60k 3 UP:  1 7 5 2        LSS 5 2

R7 3:38ET 6.5f D JuvSprintB60k 2 YO:  4 7 1 2 8 6              LSS 1

R8 4:08ET 7f D MilDistfB60k 3 UP FM:  4 1 2 7     LSS 2 7

R9 4:42ET 8f T Off MSW 2 YO  4600:  15 16 14 13 11 9     LSS 16 9

That’s all 9 races including the 6 short fields. Remember you can get the Grid for all the big tracks and race days right here.  

Good luck!

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Wednesday, November 11.  Zia Park has a rare nice midweek card today with the New Mexico Classic Cup, a series of 8 stakes races with $400k in purse money available.  It’s like their own little Breeders’ Cup with shorter fields, talent, and purses.  But it’s still good racing.  

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Speaking of Breeders’ Cup, take a look at our Breeders’ Cup Recap and Report Card, and see how we took advantage of some great long shot specials on Saturday to win big.

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Let’s take a look at the fields, make some picks, identify some value plays, and get some long shot specials (LSS) going. First get today’s free Grid for Zia to follow along.

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R1 2:00ET 5f D Clm 7500n3l 3 UP FM:  8 1 7 9 4 2               LSS 8 4 2

Nothing wrong with taking the top LP and 2^nd Power at 8-1. 7 and 4 will likely bounce, 1 should bounce back.

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R2 2:27ET 6f D Clm 5000b 3 UP: 11 2 12 5 4 6      LSS 12 6 8 9

Good value here if the field stays at 12.  Top LP at 15-1.  Not much speed so 8 and 9 added to mix.

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R3 2:54ET 6f D NM SprtDstB50k 3 UP FM:  6 5 1 2 4

Short field of 6, better off not betting except straight exotics. Verticals use 1 and 2 for sure.

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R4 3:21ET 8f D NMClCpFM50k 3 UP FM: 4 2 7 5 3              LSS 3

Decent value for a field of 7. 

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R5 3:48ET 6f D NMCpLssieB50k 2 YO F:  3 4 7 6 5             LSS 7 6

Decent value for field of 7 if you can get odds on 7.

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R6 4:15ET 8f D NMClasicCp50k 3 UP:  4 7 5 1 3   LSS 7

Decent value for field of 7 if you can get odds on 7.

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R7 4:42ET 6f D NMSprint50k 3 UP:  3 5 4 6 1 8      LSS 5 8

Hard to envision 3 not winning but kind of wide open after that.

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R8 5:09ET 6f D NM C CpJvChB50k 2 YO C&G: 7 8 9 5 6 2 4            LSS 7 8 4 2

Ah, this is more like it. I got a 12-1 and 20-1 for my top 2.  Great value here.  I love 2yo racing.

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R9 5:36ET 6f D NM CpDbyCB50k 3 YO C&G:  7 3 8 11 9 5               LSS 7 3

Again, 2 LSS for my top 2.  That would make for some great exotics.  Do it 2 races in a row.

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R10 6:03ET 6f D NMCpOaksB50k 3 YO F :  6 9 4 8 2 7      LSS 9 4 8 7

Lots of value here. Hard to see 6 not winning but kinda wide open after that.

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One caveat to all the picks.  They’re assuming the track is playing somewhat fairly and a lot of LP picks were made.  If it’s favoring speed early, put more emphasis on EP and the E/EP6 and up.  It’s been a year since I bet Zia so I can’t remember how it normally plays.

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You can get the daily Grid for all the big tracks and race days here.

Good luck.

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November 10, 2020.   They say hindsight is 2020, which is true in many cases, but not always when it comes to horses, and definitely not when it comes to the Breeders’ Cup 2020 at Keeneland.  There weekend was full of track records, long shots launching bombs in every other race, and some big wins for our team here using the Grid.  Over all , it was largely a tale of two days.

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Let’s just recap it race by race, starting with Friday.  The BC Juvenile day had 6 juvenile stakes races, and you know who’s good at capping the juvies right?  True, but also, they can vary widely in form from race to race, which is what happened several times on this day, leaving most of us bewildered.

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FRIDAY NOVEMBER 6:  DAY 1 DEBACLE:

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R1 11:30ET 6.5f D NyquistB125k 2 YO 

The day started off quite normally, with a co-favorite and top Power horse in the Grid winning followed by the top EP and Speed colt at 5-1.  The first track record of the weekend was set.  Not much to like about the 3^rd or 4^th placers.

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R2 12:05ET 6.5f D SongbirdB125k 2YOF

Things already started going downhill.  The 8-1 winner was 3^rd in EP, 4^th in Speed and Power in the Grid, out of 14 fillies, and had the 2^nd best PF overall, albeit set on turf.  Obviously we should have paid better attention to those figures, and hindsight close to 2020 here. Runner up made sense.  Again, nothing to like about the 3^rd place at 70-1 or the 4^th at 24-1.  But you learn and highlight the trainer and jock where they appear in the later races.

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R3 12:40ET 9f T BryStatnB150k 3 YO 

This is where the real fireworks started.  The alternate entry got in, had nothing to like on paper, and won at 74-1, the 2^nd longest in a field of 15.  He literally had the lowest high PF and the lowest power ranking in the Grid, and obviously in most other materials. 2^nd and 4^th made sense but it didn’t matter.

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R4 1:15ET 6f McCnl SprB150k 3 UP FM

Things finally made sense again here, with the 3-1 favorite / top EP/Speed on top of the top LP on top of a random top 5 on top of the top power horse.  What didn’t make sense was the jockey trainer combo from race 2, didn’t fire at all and they were never in it, even with the ML fav.  Getting the order right was the only hard part.

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R5 1:50ET 13f D TbAftAlc-G2 3 UP 

You’d figure there would be some weird things happening at the obscure 13 furlong distance that none of them had ever raced at before.  But that’s why you have the Grid, so you can at least bet on top Power, Stamina, and LP picks.  No such luck.  To sum it up, let’s just show the odds of the top 5 finishers in this 14 horse field:  11, 33, 53, 9, 41.   They’re like lottery numbers.  The top two public betting choices finished last and 3^rd to last.  At least the 4^th place horse was my top pick, but making sense of the rest of it is somewhat of a futile waste of time, and irrelevant in the grand scheme.

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R6 2:30ET 5.5f T BCJvTfSp-G2 2 YO 

This was easier to make sense of, with the obvious 4-5 winner.  The 11-1 runner up had a case also, with the 2^nd best PF overall, achieved last out. After that the two Euro invaders rounded out the super, but all of which was still tough to get with 15 entries to choose from.

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R7 3:10ET 8f T BC JuvTrf-G1 2 YO C&G

This is where you would expect the Euros to dominate the field of 14, but no, they only got 2^nd and 4^th.  On top was the 30-1 American horse that everyone overlooked.  Sure, he was 2^nd in LP and 3^rd in Stamina, but we too overlooked him for the win. The top US horse on paper, finished in the bottom half of the field at 5-1.  Oh well.

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R8 3:50ET 8.5f D BCJuvFil-G1 2 YO F

Now that our last Pick 4 was already dust, it was time to get a good win of some sort.  Easy enough with a field of 7 US fillies. We got a mild upset on top, and the favorite finished off the board, for decent tri and super payouts using boxes.  See our Precap of this race here.

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R9 4:30ET 8f T BCJvFlTf-G1 2 YO F

No surprise here with the favorite winning, followed by my 2^nd, 4^th, and 5^th choices, all Euros filling out the super at odds of 22, 11, and 5.  We got a nice dime super to pay over $500!  50 cent tri paid over $400.  The race basically saved an otherwise miserable day, but you had to know how to read Europeans.

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R10 5:15ET 8.5f D BC Juvnle-G1 2 YO C&G

Finally, the Juvenile, with a field of 14 and this is where we’ll make a bunch of money right?  Not exactly.  The winner, 2^nd choice at 7-2, and the prohibitive favorite finished 4^th at 4-5.  In 2^nd was the longest shot in the field at 94-1 and in 3^rd a 30-1 at 3^rd that there wasn’t much to like about either.  A late Pick 3 of $90 was the only real achievement here, as all other verticals were broken earlier.

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Grid Grade for Saturday:  C

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SATURDAY NOVEMBER 7:  DAY 2 RECOVERY

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R1 10:15ET 6f D PerryvlleB125k 3 YO 

Saturday started out much like Friday, with a favorite setting a track record in a sprint, this time at 1-5.  The next 3 were drawn out of a hat and the payouts sucked anyway.

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R2 10:45ET 7f D LafayetteB150k 3 UP 

Another easy winner, this time at 4-1 with the top Power horse, but no exotic win here as the runner up at 11-1 had only looked good enough on a sloppy track.  It’s a shame because 3^rd and 4^th were gettable.

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R3 11:20ET 6f D QtrFSprgsB125k 3 YO F

Another easy winner as the ML favorite won for Baffert at 5-1.  Runner up top Power at 3-1, then 3^rd broke the exotics at 40-1.  Again too bad because 4^th was easy top LP at 6-1.

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R4 12:02ET 7f D BC FMSprt-G1 3 UP FM

Baffert’s super filly Gamine set a new track record at even money. Runner up top Speed and EP at 3-1, 3^rd was our 4^th pick at 6-1, and 4^th was top LP at 28-1 that we desperately wanted to get into 3^rd.  So it was an easy exacta, tri and super all around, but the super was the only good payout.

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R5 12:39ET 5.5f T BCTrfSpt-G1 3 UP 

It’s turf so look at Euros right? There was only one, and she beat all the boys at 10-1, giving us a nice $22.40 payout on that.  Unfortunately, we couldn’t put it together with the runner up at 26-1 even tho he was 2^nd in LP, but in a sprint field of 14 we were looking for more.  Again, too bad because 3^rd and 4^th were gettable.  The best thing about this race is that we finally got on the verticals board with a Pick 4 payout of over $600.

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R6 1:18ET 8f D BCDirtMi-G1 3 UP 

Another non-surprise winner, favored Knicks Go set another track record, as he did here a month ago, this time at 9-1 odds.  The front running wins gave him both track records at 8 and 8.5f.  Unfortunately once again, the runner up at 62-1 was one of the least qualified in the field.  And again, too bad because 3^rd and 4^th made sense.

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R7 1:57ET 9.5f T BC FMTrf-G1 3 UP FM

It’s a turf route race, so what do we do here? That’s right, we convert our dollars to Euros.  That gave us an awesome win on Audarya, our 3^rd pick who gave us $37.60 on the win bet.  Our 2^nd pick the 5-2 favorite was the runner up, and our top pick lost the rider at the start at 14-1.  Ah, what could have been.  Because we overlooked the actual 3^rd and 4^th long shots as there wasn’t much to like.  The $1 Exacta still paid $100 so that wasn’t bad at all. 

Most importantly, even with 2 prohibitive favorites winning this Pick 4 sequence, thanks to putting the top Euros in there, we converted our Euros back to $917 for the Pick 4 payout while watching another track record set, this time on turf.

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R8 2:36ET 6f D BCSprint-G1 3 UP 

It’s a good thing the Pick 4 ended the race before this, because we didn’t like the 18-1 winner in a very competitive field of 14.  The only win here was an across the board wager on the runner up at 5-1, our 2^nd choice because of top LP.

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R9 3:15ET 8f T BCMile-G1 3 UP 

It’s turf, so time to convert dollars to Euros, which we did.  We took the top two Euros and both missed the board.  Instead, the absolute worst horse in the field won at 73-1 for Aidan O’brien, whose other two long shots finished 2^nd and 3^rd.  I think this one was fixed because the results still make no sense, and the commentators were praising O’brien for his support of the Breeders’ Cup every year, and saying how this race had eluded him.  It must have been some kind of gift.

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R10 3:54ET 9f D BC Distaf-G1 3 UP FM

Now that our late Pick 4 was destroyed, it was time to get back on track with an even money win by super mare Monomoy Girl at even money.  It was looking awesome in the stretch as our 3^rd pick and top long shot special Valiance pulled into 2^nd at 14-1.  However, our 2^nd LSS pick faded to 4^th at the same time, being replaced Dunbar Road at 25-1, who sabotaged what would be some good trifecta and super payouts.  Precap here shows our position.

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R11 4:33ET 12f T BCTurf-G1 3 UP 

It was time to convert to Euros again so we did, but they were over half the field so it’s a good thing we chose wisely.  Our top 4 picks included the top US horse, and they all finished in the top 4.  Imagine our pleasant surprise at a $1790 superfecta and $131 for the 50 cent trifecta.

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R12 5:18ET 10f D BCClasic-G1 3 UP 

Authentic was up to the challenge, setting another track record at 4-1, even though by that point the timekeeper was drunk and we still don’t have any fractional times.  The frontrunning win that some are saying others “let him get away with” is thus legit no matter what the fractions were. The fact is they couldn’t keep up with him.  Global Campaign at 25-1 refused to fade to 4^th, again wrecking our hopes for a good tri and super.  The Pick 3 didn’t pay a lot but better than nothing.   

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All told, using the Grid and some other unnamed sources to evaluate the foreign contingent, we reeled in over $3000 in payouts on Saturday, more than making up for a dismal Friday.  The big profit margins were on the $1500 in Pick 4 payouts, bets which cost about 10% of that.  The long shot wins and exactas made the day along with the BC Turf superfecta.  It was definitely a tale of two days.

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Grid Grade for Saturday:  A

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Hindsight 2020 would say we just shouldn’t have bet on Friday, and normally I don’t, but it’s the Breeders’ Cup for crying out loud!  As it turned out, we more than made up for it on Saturday.

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So that’s what’s possible using the Grid as your primary handicapping source.  You can get the Grid for all the major tracks and race days here.

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Good luck!

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Saturday, November 7, 2020.  The Breeders’ Cup continues to amaze on Saturday, with 4 new track records set today, a repeat BC Distaff winner, and the Classic yet to come.  The last race of the day, it will be held at about 5:18PM and includes 10 awesome horses running 10 furlongs for $6 million.

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Previously in this week’s spotlight series, we covered the BC Juvenile Fillies, the BC Juvenile, and the BC Distaff, all with much success.  The Distaff was won by everyone’s top pick Monomoy Girl, followed by our 3^rd pick and top long shot special Valiance at 14-1.

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On Friday, the Juvenile Filly winner was our top LSS Vequist, followed by obvious choices for 2^nd thru 4^th.  The very competitive 14 horse field in the BC Juvenile produced some fireworks.  Our 4^th and 1^st picks finished 1^st and 4^th, but in between was a 94-1 runner up, the 2^nd longest shot of the entire day.  .

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Today:  R12 5:18ET 10f D BCClasic-G1 3 UP 

2 Tiz The Law 3-1 is the top pick.  The top 3yo this year is equipped with 5 G1 victories coming in, including a Belmont and Travers win.  And, a Kentucky Derby runner up finish where he was very wide throughout which cost him the 1 length win.  Fortunately, they didn’t feel obligated to run him in the Preakness and he comes in fresh.  He will repeat his Travers 2 back and win handily.

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4 Tom’s D’etat 6-1.  It’s a 10f race, so why not go with top LP for the 2^nd pick?  His oscillatory pattern looks good, and if he runs like he did two back in the Foster, he’ll close like a champ and be a major factor here.  Check out the Grid snapshot to see what we’re talking about.

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8 Improbable 5-2 has won 3 Grade 1 races in a row, even if there were only 16 total horses in those 3, they were still wins.  The Baffert trainee looks strong going in.

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9 Authentic 6-1.  Another Baffert trainee is also looking strong, following up his Kentucky Derby win with a narrow loss in the Preakness.  There’s not a terrible amount of speed in this race, so he could hold up for purse money again.  

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10 Maximum Security 7-2.  The third Baffert horse has to also be considered a factor.  You know him best as last year’s Kentucky Derby champion who was DQ’d because a jockey behind him caused trouble.  He’s as good as ever but lost to Improbable last out.

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1 Tacitus 20-1.  Best known as last year’s 2^nd best 3yo, he continues to hit the board every time in Grade 1 after Grade 2 race.  He could definitely hit again here with his good tactical speed.

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The call is 2 4 8 9 10 1 as Tacitus is the only true LSS but Tom’s D’etat could go off at double digits so would be the primary LSS play.  It would be wise to wheel all at the bottom of the super here.

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That’s it for today, and for this year’s Breeders’ Cup!

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You can get the Grid for all the major tracks and races here as usual.

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Friday, November 6, 2020.  Lexington, KY.  Today’s spotlight race is the Friday feature Breeders’ Cup race, the Grade 1 BC Juvenile.  14 strong young 2yo colts will begin paving their way to a 2021 Triple Crown campaign, racing 8.5f in Keeneland’s last race tody.

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Listed below are the primary contenders in order of predicted finish, for you wagering convenience.  Remember that the Juvenile-Classic BC Double begins with this race and ends with the BC Classic on Saturday, which is the race we will analyze tomorrow.

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7 Jackie’s Warrior 7-5.   On paper it looks like a 1 horse race even with 14 entries.  Steve Asmussen has trained this undefeated colt to 4 wins, including 2 G1’s and a G2 in NY. Oh and he broke maiden first out, right down the way at Churchill.  Current Kentucky Derby favorite as well.

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3 Reinvestment Risk 9-2.  Finished 2^nd to JW in the last 2 races for Chad Brown, so he might just be the 2^nd best 2yo.  Chad and Irad have both won races today already.  See the Grid snapshot to follow along.

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8 Classier 12-1.  It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that you always bet a 2yo Baffert trainee, especially at double digit odds. He looked excellent pulling away from the field in his only race.  LSS alert!

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5 Essential Quality 4-1.  Brad Cox has this Tapit colt primed after winning both outings, last out being the G1 Breeders’ Futurity right here at Keeneland.

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5 Likeable 15-1.  Todd Pletcher knows a thing or two about training young colts. He lost by a neck first out, but removed all doubt with an 8 length maiden win last out.

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11 Next 15-1.  He really found his stride in his first dirt race last out, winning an allowance by 11+ lengths. Wesley Ward has a win today already.

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9 Sittin on Go 12-1 is undefeated in 2 for Dale Romans and finished with a strong late run for a win last out in the Iroquois G3 over at Churchill.

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1 Camp Hope 30-1, 2 King Fury 15-1, and Dreamer’s Disease 30-1 also have shown the ability that they could find their way into this superfecta.  There are 14 great colts in this field so after the top spot it’s quite open.

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7-3-5-8-4-11 is the way I see it.  Early speed has been holding up very well on the Keeneland dirt today so that bodes well for the favorite and my other picks.

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To get the Grid for all the Breeders’ Cup Races and every other big race this weekend, check here.

Good luck!

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Wednesday, November 4, 2020.  Lexington, Kentucky. Today’s Breeders’ Cup spotlight race is the Longines BC Distaff G1, to be held on a sunny Saturday afternoon at approximately 3:54PM ET at the beautiful Keeneland dirt race course. 

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Saturday Nov.7 R10 3:54ET 9f D BCDistaf-G1 3 UP FM

The Distaff is shaping up to be an awesome and exciting race this year.  To most people, at first glance, it does look like a two horse race, and it just might come down to that. But there are 10 outstanding fillies and mares competing for the crown, and besides that, you need 4 in a superfecta.

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The talented fillies are listed below in the predicted order of finish, with post numbers and morning lines attached, for your wagering convenience.  We give you 6 to cram into your superfecta. You’re welcome.  

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10 Monomoy Girl 8-5.  An incredibly deserving favorite and unbeatable when the 5yo mare is at her best.  Her worst career race were two runner-up finishes, and in her past 10 all she’s done is win all 10, which includes 7 Grade 1 races and a couple G2’s andwiched around a year off with colic.  She’s top in Power and speed, and I like her oscillatory pattern coming in.  They were all wins of course, but her best runs were two and four back. 

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5 Swiss Skydiver 2-1.  This brave young filly is the primary reason I’m afraid to just single Monomoy Girl.  Last out was her second race taking on the boys, and beating all 10 of them in the Preakness G1, making up for her runner up in the Oaks G1 before that. 2^nd in Power, top in LP and Stamina.  The only problem I have is her oscillatory pattern, with the best races coming 1 and 3 back. See the Distaff Grid to see what I’m talking about.

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8 Valiance 12-1.  Long Shot Special alert!  She may not win, but double digit odds are nice for exotic wagers.  The lightly raced 4yo came out of relative turf obscurity two races back to win the Eatontown which was taken off turf and run on the slop, then followed that up with a Spinster G1 win over Ollie’s Candy and Lady Kate of this field.  That was enough to convince Todd to enter her in this one, and let’s face it: Pletcher at 12-1 is an automatic bet.

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9 Ollie’s Candy 10-1.  This 5yo mare has more experience than Valiance, but was passed and beaten fair in the Spinster.  In her past 8 races, including 7 G1’s, she’s finished on the board every time, with only one finish worse than 3^rd.  2^nd in Speed, 3^rd in Power ranking, just doesn’t seem to have enough to outfinish the top 2 if they’re on their game, but could definitely take 3^rd.  Another LSS alert.

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2 Harvest Moon 12-1.  The lightest raced filly in the field, we haven’t seen big numbers from her yet, unless you look at the win column, where she’s won all 4 since moving to dirt, and that includes a G3 and G2.   What you also see is the PF’s improving each time, and that applies to 3 sets of speed figures I’m looking at.  She’ll need to do a bit more to win here, but may have the ability to do just that.  Another great LSS that could hit the board.

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6 Point of Honor 30-1.   Finding fault in this 4yo filly is difficult.  In her past 10, only one finish worse than 3^rd, and that includes 5 G1’s and 2 G2’s.  Besides that, 2^nd best LP and 3^rd in Stamina.  She consistently runs well late, which is why she hits the board every time, which she may well do here.  There’s not an enormous amount of speed in this race but there’s enough quality speed to set up for a solid closer. At 30-1 this is a great super LSS to use at the bottom of the tri and super. 

Of the others, I just don’t see them hitting the board.  Horologist is capable but I don’t like her current oscillatory pattern, or the fact that she’s bombed in every G1.  Ce Ce also has the ability to get purse money, but I think this is bit out of her wheelhouse distance for this high class field.

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So I’m seeing it as 10-2-8-9-2-7 and hoping Horologist and Ce Ce take a lot of action.  This analysis gives you plenty of ammo for the exotic wagers on this one.

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Yesterday’s spotlight was the BC Juvenile Fillies, so use that to help complete your Juvenile Fillies-Distaff Double which begins on Friday.  Stay tuned to the Breeders’ Cup link on the top or side of your window for the remaining great free analysis to come this week!

You can get the Grid for all the Breeders’ Cup races this weekend, along with all the other great racing around the country, right here.

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Remember that no on-site spectators are allowed, so don’t get in your car and drive to Lexington, but you can watch and bet on all the races with TVG, among other gaming apparati. 

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