Sep 30 2020
Preakness Precap: A Peek at Pace Predictions, Picks, and Possibilities
.
Wednesday, September 30. It’s never too early to start picking the Preakness, and we began a week ago analyzing a possible field of 15. Now that we have the final field of 11, barring any scratches, we can make some more accurate predictions. In our previous edition, we analyzed Kentucky Derby runners historically in the Preakness.
.
First, meet the Preakness field including morning line odds after the post draw. We lost 5 horses from last week’s edition, but also added the #5 Kentucky Derby runner. You can open or download the actual grid spreadsheet here. Vote for the winner at page bottom.
.
The first thing that you should notice is that even though we lost 5 from last week, we didn’t lose any front running speed. There are still 3 E8’s, an EP8, and some EP6’s. That means the pace will likely get hot up front, and Authentic won’t have it easy.
.
The Derby champ handled it brilliantly last out, but it’s just a month after his best and longest career race, and there’s lots of speed. Baffert has never lost the Preakness with a Derby champ, but this year is different in many ways. For one, it’s October, and most importantly, there’s no Triple Crown up for grabs this year.
.
.
Competition on the front end includes the brilliant filly Swiss Skydiver, fresh off a Kentucky Oaks runner up finish but vanquished any distance questions with a 10f Alabama romp. NY Traffic had a disappointing Derby fading to 8th, and also couldn’t keep with Authentic in the Haskell although did scare the champ with a late surge there.
.
Art Collector finally enters the Triple Crown fray, and is rated as en EP8 because he has shown the ability to run from off the pace and still win. His brilliant 5 race winning streak includes one such victory, chasing Swiss Skydiver in the Blue Grass and putting her away for trainer Thomas Drury.
.
The 3 EP6’s will certainly pressure the pace, but I only give one of them a serious shot. Pneumatic, who was slated to run in the Derby up until the week of, and finally showed the class that he belonged in his final prep winning the Pegasus. There is a distance question here, as he’ll have to hold up for another furlong.
.
Thousand Words is probably the most interesting newcomer. Also withdrawn the week of the Derby, the former million dollar baby also won his final prep, in front running style. But he has shown the ability to win from off the pace, as he did in his first 3 starts, including 2 graded stakes wins for Baffert.
.
But all this speed up front should shape up well for late runners, right? Yes it should. Enter Max Player, a last minute entry, who closed for a strong 5th in the Derby, which believe it or not was actually the WORST of his past 4 races. He could be up for another big one here as Asmussen gets a handle on him.
.
Mr. Big News is also a good late runner and proved it in the Derby, closing for a strong 3rd. But that was also his best career race, and after two best career races, he fell flat in the next race. It seems he can’t string together two in a row, and keeps oscillating, so it could be another disappointing race.
.
Although the Preakness is commonly thought of as a frontrunner’s race, there’s always an S type late runner that finishes on the board. And, top 5 Derby finishers usually finish ITM, so one of those two will definitely get purse money and I’m leaning Max Player. Excession is also an S0 but he will have to show marked improvement in his 7 months off since the Rebel stakes.
.
We mentioned just about every horse, if not by name, and how they will play into the pace scenario. Here’s the predicted finishing order of the Preakness based on this analysis.
.
3 Art Collector 5-2
1 Authentic 9-5
8 Max Player 15-1
4 Swiss Skydiver 6-1
5 Thousand Words 6-1
10 Pneumatic 20-1
7 Mr. Big News 12-1
.
We gave you 7 here because, are you really going to bet the Super High 5 with just 5 horses? OK. However you bet it, good luck!
.
For all past and future Preakness analysis, just click the Preakness link on the top or side menu.
.
Click here for Pimlico Grids all Friday, Saturday, or for any other major track and race. A new 2020 only special Preakness thru Breeders’ Cup option.
.
Who will win the Preakness?
- Art Collector (35%)
- Authentic (29%)
- Mr. Big News (12%)
- Pneumatic (12%)
- NY Traffic (6%)
- Thousand Words (6%)
- Excession (0%)
- Jesus' Team (0%)
- Liveyourbeastlife (0%)
- Max Player (0%)
- Swiss Skydiver (0%)
Loading ...Sep 26 2020
Sunny Santa Anita Saturday Selections: 5 Breeders’ Cup Races, 5 Graded Stakes, Big Time racing
.
Saturday, September 26, 2020. Sunny Santa Anita has 7 stakes races today, including 5 graded races and 5 contests offering an automatic slot to one of the Breeders’ Cup races in November. Thus, the action is hot, and the weather is warm but not quite hot, as usual for sunny southern cal.
.
Racing begins at 12:30 Pacific time, kicking off with the Unzip Me Stakes. Bulletproof One is the deserving favorite, dominating her last turf race and finished a close 2nd in the Speakeasy Stakes here a year ago. Not much front running speed in this race bodes well for her in this one as the lone frontrunner. Get the Grid here to follow along.
.
The top power filly is Mind Out, and may improve cutting back from 4 races at a mile after winning her debut at 5f last year. Also at 6-1 is top power horse Mermeith, who should also benefit cutting back from a mile. She dominated last time at 6f on a sloppy dirt track, giving her the 2nd best PF in the field.
.
Blue Sky Baby is tied for 2 LP and 2nd best turf PF, achieved last out at Del Mar. She also won her debut here at 5f a year ago. Biddy Duke at 8-1 is a good long shot special, with 2nd best EP and 2nd best dirt PF. If she takes a liking to the turf she will hit the board.
.
Race 3 is the Chandelier G2 which offers the winner a slot in the BC Juvenile Fillies G1 in November. Only 5 young fillies will compete, 3 of them coached by Bob Baffert. His top filly Princess Noor is the odds on favorite at 2-5 ML after winning her debut and last out in the Del Mar Debutante G1.
.
Baffert’s Varda also won her debut at Del Mar and has a good ML price of 8-1 which will likely decrease. His 3rd filly is Illumnation who was 3rd in the Debutante and won’t do better than 3rd here. Mark Casse will try to cause some trouble with Make Mischief at 5-1, who will likely hit the board.
.
Race 5 is the Speakeasy Stakes, not graded but worth $100k in purse money and a BC Juvenile Turf Sprint berth to the winner. The 3 virtual favorites are solid and all won last out, but it’s hard to get excited about odds of 3-1.
.
Just as good as them according to the Grid, is Fury Kap at 6-1 who won on dirt in his debut. Better yet, Windy City Red at 15-1, who won his debut on polytrack, registered the 2nd best PF of the 5 that have raced in North America.
.
Then we have Feathers who won his debut on turf overseas for Peter Miller and appears at 12-1. A triplet of unraced juvies coached by Doug O’neill fill the first 3 posts, two at 6-1 and one at 20-1. So this one is wide open, but Windy City Red and Feathers offer the best value.
.
Race 7 gives away a BC Filly and Mare Turf slot to the winner of the Rodeo Drive G1. It’s 10f but the only early runner is Tonahutu, whose speed will be difficult to keep up with for most of the field. Maxim Rate and Bodhicitta will be up close if she tries to put them to sleep.
.
Favored Lady Prancealot will also have to track the pace more closely than usual to have a chance. It’s hard not to like Bodhicitta with top LP but 5-2 isn’t great. I like it 3 1 2 6 4.
.
Next up is the American Pharoah G1 in Race 8 which will provide a slot to the BC Juvenile G1 in November. The field of 8 youngsters will also compete for $300k in purse money.
.
It’s a graded juvenile race in Socal so we’re automatically thinking Baffert again, but he only has one in this race. Speilberg does look like the one to beat, finishing 2nd in both races, last out in the Del Mar Futurity, losing to Dr. Schivel who will not race again this year.
.
The top PF in the field belongs to Touchdown Brown at 5-1, coming off a strong 2nd in a Del Mar stakes. Notable Exception at 7-2 ML won his debut on poly and could improve on dirt. The only horse to have run a mile yet is Waspirant at 6-1 who won at a DM mile last out.
.
Race 9 features the John Henry Turf Championship G2 which does not offer a BC berth, but has 8 talented turf horses, some of which you will be seeing in the BC turf for sure. It’s hard to see much past the deserving favorite United and 2nd choice Originaire.
.
But tied for top LP are Oscar Dominguez at 8-1, yes that’s the horse’s name not the rider, and he finished a close 2nd to United last time at this distance. Proud Pedro at 8-1 also is top LP and won last time at this distance.
.
The last stakes race is the Awesome Again G1 in race 10, issuing at least one berth to this year’s BC Classic G1. A short but talented of field of 5will compete for the $300k purse. The top 2 ML choices and post time choices are, you guessed it… trained by Baffert. Â
.
.
Favored Maximum Security, last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, is riding a 6 race win streak following his only career loss, last out winning the G1 Pacific Classic. Improbable is back in top form and won 2 in a row including the Whitney G1. Interestingly, neither has won a BCC race yet this year.
.
There are only 5, so at least one of the others will the board. Sleepy Eyes Todd was our top long shot special in the Charles Town Classic G2, where he wound up the post time favorite and won going away. This is a tougher field but he’s got a shot. Midcourt lost to the two favorites in his last 3 races.
.
That’s it for the stakes racing. There are 11 total races on the card which will conclude around 6pm, so that’s over 5 hours of exciting racing to spark up your Saturday. Good luck!
.
Get the Grid for all the major tracks and races including the Preakness and Breeders Cup here.
Sep 24 2020
Pre Preakness 2020 Precap of Probables, , Preview of Possibles, Picks and Past Performances
.
September 24, 2010. It’s Pre-Preakness week, but we have a list of probables for the Preakness, so it’s a good time for an early precap of the possible contenders and their past performances. It’s time to start narrowing down the field of 15 before we actually know the final field.
.
There are only 3 Kentucky Derby contenders in this first ever October Preakness which will be held next week on the 3rd. The Derby winner Authentic, who sets up perfectly for this race, 3rd place finisher Mr. Big News, and NY Traffic who finished 8th with no real excuses.
.
We’re about to do some handicapping using the best handicapping tool known to man, the Grid, so we can look at PF’s and aggregates. Grab the secret free early Preakness Grid here to follow along. People pay money for this, so don’t tell anyone you got it free.
.
It’s really too early to do pace handicapping, because that depends on the final field. For example, the Kentucky Derby field initially had a lot of speed in it, until one by one most of the speed mysteriously withdrew, leaving it open for another front running victory by a Baffert trainee. By the end of Derby week, Authentic was the only E8 left in the field.
.
Similarly, the current Preakness field is packed with front running speed, but that is contingent of course, on Authentic, NY Traffic, and Swiss Skydiver all participating, and at least one will probably not make the final field. Art Collector will likely rate behind the front runners unless they’re putting him to sleep, and Happy Saver has not run on the lead in any of his 3 races.
.
Speaking of which, the obvious key horses in the Preakness are the 3 Kentucky Derby contenders. Statistics show that in every year starting in 1997, if the Preakness winner had run in the Kentucky Derby, they finished in the top 8, which confirms all 3 of our Derby contenders.
.
But the stats also show that 1 of every 4 or 5 Preakness winners did not run in the Derby, and in the recent six year span, the majority of 2nd and 3rd place finishers did not run in the Derby. In fact, 9 of 12 such ITM finishers did not run in the Derby, whereas 5 of the 6 champs DID run in the Derby.
.
.
Which brings us back to Happy Saver. Fresh, good PF’s, good LP, the right running style, coached by Todd Pletcher, and coming off a win in the official Preakness Prep, the Federico Tesio at Laurel in September. Only 3 career races but all wins from just off the pace.
.
And of course we need to mention Swiss Skydiver, who proved she has no problem with the distance with the 10f Alabama win at Saratoga. It’s true that she did not win the Kentucky Oaks, but chasing the leader around for 9f, she was still trying and lost by a length.
.
Art Collector chased Swiss Skydiver in the Blue Grass and not only caught her, but left her in the dust by 3.5 lengths. He is without a doubt the most serious non-Derby runner in the field, as evidenced by his 5 race win streak including the two 100-point Derby preps. He also has top LP and Stamina in the Grid.
.
Some other Preakness contenders we haven’t mentioned are Dr Post and Thousand Words. Again, neither ran in the Kentucky Derby, but both have the PF’s to prove they could be up for the job. Dr Post fits the bill of the late runner that finds its way into the money, as does Mr. Big News.
.
Two more that require mentioning are the top LP horses. We mentioned Art Collector as top LP, but he also runs on the front end. Mystic Guide is 2nd in LP and believes he has the right to win this after a Jim Dandy win. Tied for 3rd in LP are Jesus’ Team, 3rd in the Dandy, and Pneumatic, who qualified for the Derby but they took his name out of the hat before the post draw.
.
The main reason that last year’s Preakness results were so out of the norm, is that NONE of the top 4 Kentucky Derby runners ran in the Preakness, the first known time in history that has happened. So far in this field we have 2 of them running including the champ, so things already look more normal.
.
.
Assuming the field as it is now, which is somewhat normal, it’s tough not to like Authentic and Art Collector as the top winning, followed by some combination of the others mentioned above as contenders. We will have to wait for the final field to make some more accurate picks.
.
Get the Grid for the Preakness and all the great Pimlico racing on October 3 here.
.
Who will win the Preakness?
- Art Collector (35%)
- Authentic (29%)
- Mr. Big News (12%)
- Pneumatic (12%)
- NY Traffic (6%)
- Thousand Words (6%)
- Excession (0%)
- Jesus' Team (0%)
- Liveyourbeastlife (0%)
- Max Player (0%)
- Swiss Skydiver (0%)
Loading ...Sep 16 2020
Kentucky Downs Closing Day Precap; Churchill reopens Thursday
.
Wednesday, September 16, 2020. Kentucky Downs will close tonight after a brief but exciting meet which as usual featured the largest average daily purse size of any racing meet in North America. If it seems like their meet just began, it did open just 10 days ago, and just like that it’s over.
.
.
In addition they also canceled at least one full racing day due to weather, and several stakes races slated for today were also canned. Churchill Downs is ready to pick up some of the slack on Thursday but won’t put up another stakes race for 10 more days.
.
Today’s card looks good with almost 100 horses competing in 10 races after morning scratches. The featured race is the Grade 3 Franklin Simpson Stakes where 12 3yo’s are competing at 6.5f on turf of course for half a million in purse money. See the Grid here to follow along.
.
On first glance the field looks competitive and wide open, but there’s not much in the way of frontrunners so focus on speed. Turned Aside is a legit ML favorite and the 2nd fastest early runner, coming off a G3 win.
.
Maven is the fastest on average with high EP and his ML of 5-1 is likely to go down and he could end up the favorite. A close 3rd in speed and EP belongs to Johnny Unleashed at 12-1 ML, who has the best last race PF which was also a win. If Competitive Saint draws in he could be dangerous at 8-1.
.
If the pace does heat up early on the front end, the best late runners could pick up the pieces. Embolden at 10-1 is cutting back from 3 races at a mile and was 2nd in a stakes last time at this distance. Another Miracle at 15-1 could also make noise, and Guildsman at 20-1 is 2nd in LP.
.
There are several nice allowance races with names you can recognize, and also a couple MSW’s for 2yo’s with names you may be hearing more of in the future. Good luck today.
.
As always, you can get the Grid for all the major tracks and race days here. See which option looks best for you.
Sep 07 2020
Kentucky Downs Opening Day Precap: Big Purses, Big Fields, Big Turf Racing
.
Monday, September 7, 2020. Kentucky Downs reopens today for their typical big time turf racing with big purses and big fields. On Labor Day, 120 horses will be laboring to reel in a piece of about $2.5 million in purse money, including $1million total for the 2 futurities.
.
.
The featured Tourist Mile race 11 has 9 horses running for a purse of $750k. The odds are spread out a bit but it does look like the single digit entries will hit the board for the most part. I like it 10 9 2 5 4 with 2 being the only true long shot special since the others will likely be at 5-1 or less by post.  Grab the free Grid here to follow along.
.
Race 10 is the Juvenile worth $500 and attracts 9 very talented 2yo’s. I like the top power horse Gypsy King going a mile for the first time at 8-1ML which will likely decrease by post time. Picks here are 6 4 7 2 9 with 6 the LSS a mentioned.
.
The One Dreamer worth $300k has a field of 13 fillies and mares at 8.3f. This one is also very competitive and looks somewhat wide open, but I already have 4 LSS identified. 11 8 9 1 all have ML odds of 12-1 or more and all could hit the board. Monster exacta and tri if they combine.
.
The fillies juvenile race 8 gets 11 also running for half a mil and is also quite competitive. While the 4 single digit ML horses are solid, there are also at least 3 great long shots. The top Power filly is 15-1, the top LP is 20-1, and the top PF was achieved by a 20-1 contender. Picks 4 13 6 10 11 5 with LSS 4 13 11.
.
There are also 2 MSW’s for 2yo’s running at a mile each for male and female, to compare and contrast to the juvenile stakes races. 11 races total on the card with 120 horses competing makes for good racing and betting on the turf. Stakes racing starts in Race 8 at about 4:55 PM.
.
As always, you can get the Grid for all major tracks and races right here. Today for example, subscribers are using the Grid also for Saratoga, Del Mar, Gulfstream, Laurel, and Parx. It’s still a great time to join, with the Preakness coming up in less than 4 weeks and the Breeders Cup a month later.
.
Sep 06 2020
Sunday September Stakes Status: Del Mar Derby and Debutante Precap
.
Sunday, September 6, 2020. Just when you thought all the Derby talk was done, it’s not. Another September Derby will run today at Del Mar as a dozen horses will compete in the G3 Derby on turf. There’s also a $750k Derby at Kentucky Downs this week, and don’t forget the Olahoma and Canadian Derby later this month. Get the free Grid here to follow along.
.
The Del Mar Derby is filled with mostly turf specialists but adds dirt runner Kiss Today Goodbye, who was considered in the Kentucky Derby field until about a week ago. He finished 3rd in the Shared Belief here at Del Mar on dirt last out, registering the best PF in the field, and he’s the top long shot special at 8-1, complete with top LP. His first 2 races were on turf and I don’t think he’ll have a problem with it.
.
.
The ML favorite Pixelate is solid and has 2nd in LP and Power. 1st in Power and 2nd in Stamina is California Kook at 5-1. 3rd in Power is Guitty at 8-1 and 4th is K P at 6-1. Because of a lack of much early speed in the race, I think Margot’s Boy the E8 at 12-1 will hit the board and maybe Heywood’s Beach too. But the predicted pace also solidifies the Kiss Today Goodbye pick. Good betting race either way.
.
The Debutante G1 is a field of only 6 so it’s chalky with a Baffert filly the favorite. She’ll have her hands full with the Desormeaux filly. There are 4 other 2yo races on the card so it’s a big day for both fillies and colts at Del Mar today. Good luck!
.
To get the Grid for all the major tracks and races in North America, check out the options here. It’s a great time to join with the Preakness and Breeders’ Cup both coming up!
.
Sep 06 2020
Derby Day Recap: You Should Have Used the Grid. $2800 Pick 4.
.
Sunday, September 6, 2020. Hindsight is 2020 this year, especially when you cheated yourself out of the best PP’s in horse racing and missed out on $thousands in winnings, because you didn’t want to make a $9 investment in racing information and instead forked over hundreds to the track instead of winning.
.
Yesterday I just watched in amazement as race after race, the Grid provided winning exotic wagers. After the first 3 races that had short fields and relatively short priced winners, nothing over 4-1, which there’s nothing anyone can do anything about, there were 2 more races with favorite winning. Regardless, the early pick 4 still paid an easy $178 and got the ball rolling.
.
Download the Churchill Saturday Grid with results filled in, to follow along.
.
Then the fireworks began. Check out the results below.
R6 1:45ET 7f D Alw 100000n1x 3 UP
Winner #2 8-1, 1st in EP and Speed, also 2nd in Power and Stamina, and my personal 2nd choice.
.
R7 2:20ET 8.5f D OClm 62500n2x 3 UP
Winner #8 4-1, Top LP, 3rd in Stamina and Power
Runnerup #9 also 4-1, 1st in Power and Speed
.
R8 2:55ET 8.5f T AmerTurf-G2 3 YO
Winner #8 9-2, 2nd in LP, Stam and Power
Runnerup #1 11-1, Top 3 4 or 5 across the board
.
R9 3:35ET 8f D PDayMile-G2 3 YO
Favoritism won at 3-1
.
R10 4:07ET 8f D Iroquois-G3 2 YO
Winner #2 24-1, nobody saw it coming. Fortunately Pick 4 started in race 11.
.
R11 4:39ET 8f T DstfTfMl-G2 4 UP FM
Winner #6 at 8-1. Top LP and Stamina, 3rd in Power. Gotta love the Pick4 starting with that.
.
R12 5:17ET 7f D DctyDst-G1 4 UP FM
Winner #4 at 4-1, 2nd in LP and Stamina, 2nd best PF overall.
.
R13 5:50ET 9f T TurfClsc-G1 4 UP
Top LP and favorite faltered to 4th, but that’s why we have 2 and 3 LP, which finished 1st and 3rd.
Winner #4 8-1. 3rd LP 4th Stamina, highest priced Chad Brown Trainee, others finished 3rd and 4th
Runner up #1 5-1. 1st in Power, Speed, 3rd Stamina
3rd #3 5-1. 2nd in LP and Stamina, 3rd in Power
.
R14 7:01ET 10f D KyDerby-G1 3 YO
Winner #18 8-1. Top EP, 2nd in Speed and Power, 4th Stamina
Runnerup #17 3-5. 1st Speed Power Stamina, 2nd LP
4th place 7-1. 3rd in every category across the board.
.
If you examine 3rd place Mr. Big News by looking at the full Derby Grid, you can easily see that he has the best classic pedigree. His classic and total dosage points destroy the rest of the field, and he did win a 9f stakes race this year. So good enough reason to wheel him down there, but better yet just wheel all at the bottom of the Trifecta, because you knew the 3 main key horses, the same ones we were talking all week, the same that finished 1st, 2nd, and 4th.
.
Getting the Derby trifecta or super would have to take some crafty wagering, based on experience. I can tell you that the 50 cent trifecta payout of $656 was one of the easiest ever. The cost was reasonable too. Every year there’s a horse breaking into the trifecta or super, or even exacta at long odds, and sometimes it’s hard to make a case for, like this year.
.
Last year Country House surprised everyone but us. He was 2nd in LP and was our long shot special, ranked in the Derby Dozen. The main problem was the taking down of top LP Maximum Security, leaving us without a well deserved and well paying trifecta there, and instead only a WPS. The year before that, an 85-1 Instilled Regard completed the super and while not highly regarded,he was 4th in LP, but the top 3 were very obvious. The list goes on, there’s a super bomb every year.
Back to this year, we just pointed out that there was only one surprise winner on the day, in the Iroquois G3 with the 24-1 winner. But that was race 10, and the late pick 4 didn’t start until race 11. It paid $70 GRAND for the 50 cent bet. You can’t look at the Derby day Grid provided and honestly say there’s no way you could have got that. The early pick 4 was very easy and paid $178. The middle pick 4 was not much harder and paid $600. So you should have had a good trifecta bankroll going into the Derby.
.
The best recommendation I have going forward, is if you don’t know how, first learn how to use the Grid, so you can start raking in some of these rolling wagers and other exotics. You can actually learn for free, since there’s a learning page and at least one free Grid issued for a track every week. This week’s free Grid is for Del Mar today, who will be running their own Derby as a Grade 3 race on turf.
.
The learning page on the top menu, or left menu on your phone’s browser will help you learn what color codes and abbreviations mean. It’s real easy once you get the hang of it. It’s still a great time to join the club, with the Preakness coming up in less than month and then the Breeders’ Cup a month after that. Check out all the options here.
Sep 05 2020
2020 Kentucky Derby for Dummies Part Deux!
.
September 5, 2020. It’s Saturday afternoon and you’re hearing all this talk about the Kentucky Derby as usual, the first Saturday in September. It doesn’t matter, day month or year, it’s Derby Day! And the Derby for Dummies is back by popular demand.
.
We put together a Dummy grid for you, basically summarizing the full Derby Grid, which is awesome but takes 30 minutes to read all the content. If you have a short attention span, you can print or save the Dummies mini-grid in 3 minutes, and then seem very informed to all your friends!
.
For example, you can look at a horse that has an A for trainer and jockey, and say “I like his connections,” and then if your friends aren’t impressed enough about that, you can then read off the name of their trainer, jockey, and further say you gave his prep races an A!
.
So we graded each horse on the connections, speed figures, prep performances, pedigree, and Derby points. In each field they get an A, B, C or no grade at all. The A B C grades are worth points and they are tallied for you to get a final score, so as to not stretch your noodle too much.
.
Without further ado, here is the Derby Dummy Grid with the grades and scores. It has just enough info so that you can seem intelligent speaking about it to friends and family, and possibly even win some bets!
.
.
There it is in a nutshell. The A contenders are, shockingly, Tiz the Law, Authentic, and Honor A.P., the same top contenders in every other analysis we’ve done. Close behind are NY Traffic, Thousand Words, and Max Player, getting B’s. 3 horses identified as key exotic horses previously.
.
Of the C horses to use underneath in your exotics, I like two of them, and anyone who’s read the Derby Dirty Dozen knows that Sole Volante is the top LP horse and therefore must be used. I had no idea Attachment Rate would score decently in this but I still don’t like him. Great trainer though.
.
.
Overall the results are surprisingly accurate and correspond well with the other Derby Lessons this week. Plus you can print out the Dummy Grid and when someone mentions a horse, say you gave him a grade of __ in the category of ___ and therefore you like him or not.
.
Have the last word tonight, know what everything’s about. Be a big shot. Your friends will be so knocked out. Don’t forget your Halston dress.
.
Remember, it’s never too late to get the full Derby Grid or join the WWC for a month or so, getting you thru the Preakness as well.
.
2020 Kentucky Derby Winner
- Tiz The Law (45%)
- Honor A.P. (10%)
- Thousand Words (10%)
- Authentic (8%)
- Attachment Rate (5%)
- Major Fed (5%)
- Money Moves (5%)
- Sole Volante (5%)
- NY Traffic (3%)
- King Guillermo (3%)
- Finnick the Fierce (3%)
- Winning Impression (0%)
- South Bend (0%)
- Mr. Big News (0%)
- Necker Island (0%)
- Storm the Court (0%)
- Max Player (0%)
- Enforceable (0%)
Loading ...Sep 04 2020
Kentucky Derby Training 204: The Pedigree
.
September 4, 2020. It’s only a day before the Kentucky Derby, so it’s time to get all your horses in a row so you can avoid the mad scramble and get your bets in ahead of time. Today we take a look at pedigree and how these horses should stack up.
.
.
We’re going to cover all 18 contestants fastly and furiously, so look at the following chart first to see everything in a nutshell before we continue. You have the horse listed with the sire, sireline, dam, and dosage profile. Then the sire offspring average win distance, same for dam, and mud win% for sire crop.
.
.
In past years, we were heavily focused in on the RAN sireline, which is still very relevant, but AP Indy got on the board 2 years in a row in 2013, In Excess got one on the board, and Storm Cat finally, posthumously, had a Derby winner from his sireline with Justify.
.
There were only 3 RAN sireline winners in the last 7 years, but still 56% of Derby winners starting in 1995. Now take a look at this chart where you can see the sireline from every Triple Crown Race winner from 1995- present to see what I’m talking about.
.
.
What you can discern is that the AP Indy sireline is now just as legit as that of RAN, and with the other Northern Dancer winners, the Storm Cat sireline is not just for sprinters anymore. What typically matters more for distance is the mares they mate them to.
.
Thus, the average winning distance is a telling matter. If you were to just look at the dosage profile and AWD’s, you would probably just assign Mr Big News the win. The speed figures tell a different story, but keep in mind that his mare is in Europe, where her offspring are running 1.5 to 2 mile turf races.
.
For an all American pedigree, it’s hard not to like Sole Volante. Storm Cat on top and a Kingmambo (sire of Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid) mare on bottom. Bred for distance, and was the best closer in the field before having a bad day at the Belmont Stakes, ironically.
.
You have to like the MAW of Tiz the Law as well, even if his dosage is missing some classic points, those stallions simply haven’t registered yet on the scale, because he’s literally a proven winner in G1 races at 9 and 10f at this point. The Travers proved he doesn’t have any apparent distance problem.
.
What you have to keep in mind with the dosage points nowadays, is that horses are retiring to stud so early now, and it takes a few years for them to get points in the dosage index, because those points are based on their crop performances. Which is why the AWD is probably more accurate in a pinch.
.
Also, in the far right column we have included the 2017 stud fee of their sires, which is a good indicator of what experienced horsemen think about their sires. In this case, the two most expensive sires are both horses that I wouldn’t bet on to win, and one may scratch I’m hearing.
.
The third most expensive sire also has the shortest dam’s crop AWD of any in the field, and is not one that I believe can succeed in a G1 at 10f. The two tied for 4th in 2017 sire stud fee are also two that I wouldn’t bet on to win the Derby.
.
The conclusion is that they all have nice pedigrees, and those with the best pedigree on paper aren’t the same as those who have been the best on the track so far. Look at NY Traffic, sire tied for 2nd lowest stud fee in 2017, and he’s one of the top contenders and point earners. How’s that for insight?
.
All of this information, and much more, is included in the Kentucky Derby Grid, with a limited amount still set for sale this week. It’s also a great time to join the Weekend Winners Club, since your first month gets you all Derby and Preakness materials and everything in between. No hassle cancels, just login to Paypal and click cancel whenever you want. One full month access still guaranteed.
.
Sep 04 2020
Friday Race of the Day: Turf Sprint G2.
.
Friday, September 4, 2020. The race of the day is obviously the Kentucky Oaks, but you probably don’t need us to tell you Swiss Skydiver will win at even money, Speech will get 2nd at 3-1, and Gamine will be a huge underlay 3rd at 8-5, making for the lowest paying trifecta in Oaks history. It shall be a good race no doubt, but not good for betting, at all.
.
.
The race that caught my eye on today’s card is the G2 Turf Sprint, the last race of the day. Specifically, in a sprint with not a lot of early speed, the top EP rating is 30-1 on the ML. This is after he checked hard near the quarter poll and finished only 1 length behind the 7-2 ML favorite in the Shakertown.
.
Just Might not be 30-1 at post time is my guess. Not anywhere near that, but could still be a long shot of some sort. Wellabled also looks quite strong going in, won last 2 turf races before a bit flat on the poly, but 3rd in EP and the only E8 in the field. Chief Cicatriz at 15-1? No effin way. See how I ranked them below.
.
.
So that’s the race of the day. As a 5.5f race, it will be guaranteed to end in less than 65 seconds, but it will be the most exciting minute of the day, and hopefully the most rewarding.
.
To get the Grid for all races Derby and Oaks Day, and any other track this weekend desired, click here. It’s a great time to join since your first month will get you all Derby and Preakness and everything in between. Cancel anytime, no hassle, just login to Paypal and end it whenever, still guaranteed one full month access.
.
