Weekend Winners Club

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April 24, 2020. Here is the modified schedule for the last week of April, after massive track closures.

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April 25, 2020

Unbridled S        GP          Apr 25   $75k g   3yo         8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Apr 17.

Fukushima Himba S (JPN-IIIT)     JRA         Apr 25   $759k a 4&up f/m            9f            Turf        Closed on Mar 17.

Bachelor S           OP          Apr 25   $100k g 3yo         6f            Dirt         Closed on Apr 16.

Carousel              OP          Apr 25   $125k g 4&up f/m            6f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 26.

April 26, 2020

Flora S (JPN-IIT)                JRA         Apr 26   $1,042k a             3yo f      10f          Turf        Closed on Mar 17.

Yomiuri Milers Cup (JPN-IIT)       JRA         Apr 26   $1,187k a             4&up     8f            Turf        Closed on Mar 17.

April 27, 2020

Miranda Diane S               WRD      Apr 27   $55k g   3&up f/m S         6f            Dirt         Closed on Apr 16.

April 28, 2020

TRAO Classic Sprint S      WRD      Apr 28   $55k g   3&up c/g S          6f            Dirt         Closed on Apr 17.

April 29, 2020

Bosselman Pump and Pantry/Gus Fonner S         Fon        Apr 29   $50k a   3&up     8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Apr 15.

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April 3, 2020.  The Thoroughbred stakes calendar for North America has been greatly abridged this month due to the global dampanic. Keeneland among other tracks have canceled their entire spring meets.  Spring stalwarts Aqueduct and Santa Anita have been suspended indefinitely, among many other popular tracks.  In fact, no tracks on the west coast states are currently open for racing.

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Three huge 3yo races that that would have opened the first weekend of April, the Santa Anita Derby, Bluegrass Stakes, and Wood Memorial, have been postponed and may not ever run this year.  The Kentucky Derby will supposedly be run in September. So the big spring race instead will be the Arkansas Derby, run on the first Saturday of May, if things go as planned for Oaklawn.

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The good news is that racing does continue among three major circuit tracks: Gulfstream, Oaklawn, and Tampa Bay Downs.  The contestants at those tracks have greatly inflated during the past month from horses shipping in from all over the country. This has led to large fields, larger handles, and much more competitive racing at these tracks. 

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These tracks plan on remaining open, and they certainly have some of clout, but don’t get your hopes up too much.  Florida has become a “coronavirus hotspot” due to people fleeing New York and other hotspots to go infect Florida instead, and the Fla governor has shut down most business.  Hot Springs Arkansas is not likely to by a virus hotspot so they will probably continue as planned.

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You can keep track of the list of track meet days canceled here on Equibase.

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Full Stakes schedule (dependent on further cancellations):

Race      Track     Date      Purse    Age/Sex               Dist.       Surface Fee, Due Date

April 4, 2020

Baxter S               Fon        Apr 4     $10k a   3yo         6f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 28.

Lord Derby Challenge Trophy (JPN-IIIT) JRA         Apr 4     $785k a 4&up     8f            Turf        Closed on Feb 18.

Purple Martin S OP          Apr 4     $100k g 3yo f      6f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 28.

April 5, 2020

Osaka Hai (JPN-IT)           JRA         Apr 5     $2,375k a             4&up     10f          Turf        Closed on Feb 18.

April 6, 2020

Wilma Mankiller S            WRD      Apr 6     $50k g   3&up f/m            6f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 26.

April 7, 2020

Highland Ice S    WRD      Apr 7     $50k g   3&up c/g              6f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 27.

April 11, 2020

Dowd Mile S       Fon        Apr 11   $20k g   3&up     8f            Dirt         $0/Apr 4

Runza S                Fon        Apr 11   $13k a   3&up f/m            6f            Dirt         $0/Apr 4

Hanshin Himba S (JPN-IIT)            JRA         Apr 11   $1,103k a             4&up f/m            8f            Turf        Closed on Mar 3.

New Zealand Trophy (JPN-IIT)   JRA         Apr 11   $1,089k a             3yo         8f            Turf        Closed on Mar 3.

My Lady’s Manor Timber S           Mon      Apr 11   $50k g   5&up     24f          Turf        Closed on Mar 30.

Oaklawn Invitational       OP          Apr 11   $200k g 3yo         9f            Dirt         Not Available

Oaklawn Mile    OP          Apr 11   $150k g 4&up     8f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 26.

April 12, 2020

Oka Sho (Japanese One Thousand Guineas) (JPN-IT)      JRA         Apr 12   $2,100k a             3yo f      8f            Turf        Closed on Mar 3.

Mt. Cristo Rey H               Sun        Apr 12   $100k g 3&up S  5.5f        Dirt         $0/Apr 3

April 16, 2020

Bluebonnet S     LS            Apr 16   $75k g   3&up f/m S         6.5f        Dirt         $0/Apr 8

April 17, 2020

Acadiana S          EvD        Apr 17   $50k g   4&up f/m R         6.5f        Dirt         $0/Apr 3

Rainbow Miss S OP          Apr 17   $100k g 3yo f S   6f            Dirt         $0/Apr 9

Rainbow S           OP          Apr 17   $100k g 3yo S     6f            Dirt         $0/Apr 9

April 18, 2020

Grand National Timber  But         Apr 18   $50k g   5&up     26f          Turf        $125/Apr 6

Coin Collector S CT           Apr 18   $75k a   3yo S     4.5f        Dirt         $50/Apr 8

Confucius Say S CT           Apr 18   $75k a   3&up S  7f            Dirt         $50/Apr 8

It’s Binn Too Long S         CT           Apr 18   $75k a   3yo f S   4.5f        Dirt         $50/Apr 8

Original Gold S   CT           Apr 18   $75k a   3&up f/m S         7f            Dirt         $50/Apr 8

Lafayette S         EvD        Apr 18   $50k g   4&up R 6.5f        Dirt         $0/Apr 3

Fonner Park Special S     Fon        Apr 18   $20k a   3yo c/g S              6f            Dirt         $0/Apr 10

Fonner Park Special S     Fon        Apr 18   $20k a   3yo f S   6f            Dirt         $0/Apr 10

Arlington Cup (JPN-IIIT)                JRA         Apr 18   $759k a 3yo         8f            Turf        Closed on Mar 3.

Dahlia S                Lrl           Apr 18   $100k g 3&up f/m            8f            Turf        $0/Apr 9

Federico Tesio S               Lrl           Apr 18   $200k g 3yo         9f            Dirt         $0/Apr 9

Henry S. Clark S Lrl           Apr 18   $100k g 3&up     8f            Turf        $0/Apr 9

King T. Leatherbury S     Lrl           Apr 18   $100k g 3&up     5.5f        Turf        $0/Apr 9

Maryland Racing Media S             Lrl           Apr 18   $100k g 3&up f/m            abt 8.5f Dirt         $0/Apr 9

Weber City Miss S            Lrl           Apr 18   $125k g 3yo f      abt 8.5f Dirt         $0/Apr 9

Alfred M. Hunt Steeplethon       Mid        Apr 18   $30k g   5&up     21f          Turf        $75/Apr 6

Middleburg Hunt Cup    Mid        Apr 18   $30k g   5&up     26f          Turf        $75/Apr 6

Temple Gwathmey Steeplechase (GIIT)                Mid        Apr 18   $100k g 4&up     20f          Turf        $250/Apr 6

Apple Blossom H (GI)     OP          Apr 18   $600k g 4&up f/m            8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Apr 2.

Count Fleet Sprint H (GIII)            OP          Apr 18   $350k g 4&up     6f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 26.

Neon Desert H  Sun        Apr 18   $75k g   3&up f/m            6.5f        Dirt         $0/Apr 10

Sunland Park H  Sun        Apr 18   $150k g 3&up     9f            Dirt         $0/Apr 10

April 19, 2020

Antares S (JPN-III)           JRA         Apr 19   $717k a 4&up     9f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 3.

Satsuki Sho (Japanese Two Thousand Guineas) (JPN-IT)                JRA         Apr 19   $2,210k a             3yo         10f          Turf                Closed on Mar 3.

April 20, 2020

Cinema S             WRD      Apr 20   $55k g   3yo f S   8f            Dirt         $0/Apr 9

April 21, 2020

Copper Top Futurity       Sun        Apr 21   $130k a 2yo S     4.5f        Dirt         Closed on Jan 1.

Will Rogers S      WRD      Apr 21   $55k g   3yo c/g S              8f            Dirt         $0/Apr 10

April 24, 2020

Affirmed Success S          Bel          Apr 24   $100k g 4&up S  6f            Dirt         $100/Apr 11

April 25, 2020

Elusive Quality S               Bel          Apr 25   $125k g 4&up     7f            Turf        $125/Apr 11

William Walker  CD          Apr 25   $150k g 3yo         5f            Turf        $150/Apr 11

Bosselman Pump and Pantry/Gus Fonner S         Fon        Apr 25   $75k g   3&up     8.5f        Dirt         $0/Apr 15

California Derby                GG         Apr 25   $100k g 3yo         8.5f        AW         $50/Apr 16

California Oaks  GG         Apr 25   $75k g   3yo f      8.5f        AW         $50/Apr 16

Camilla Urso       GG         Apr 25   $75k g   3&up f/m            5f            Turf        $50/Apr 16

Golden Poppy   GG         Apr 25   $75k g   3&up f/m            8.5f        Turf        $50/Apr 16

Lost in the Fog   GG         Apr 25   $75k g   3&up     6f            AW         $50/Apr 16

San Francisco Mile (GIIIT)             GG         Apr 25   $250k g 3&up     8f            Turf        $50/Apr 16

Maryland Hunt Cup Timber         Gln         Apr 25   $100k g 5&up     32f          Turf        Closed on Mar 9.

Fukushima Himba S (JPN-IIIT)     JRA         Apr 25   $759k a 4&up f/m            9f            Turf        Closed on Mar 17.

Bachelor S           OP          Apr 25   $100k g 3yo         6f            Dirt         $0/Apr 16

Carousel              OP          Apr 25   $125k g 4&up f/m            6f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 26.

Crystal Water S SA           Apr 25   $100k g 3&up S  8f            Turf        $100/Apr 16

Santa Margarita S (GII)  SA           Apr 25   $200k g 4&up f/m            9f            Dirt         $100/Apr 16

Inaugural S          SuR        Apr 25   $50k g   3&up     6.5f        Dirt         $200/Apr 11

Welcome Back H              WO        Apr 25   $50k g   3&up R 5.5f        AW         $0/Apr 11

April 26, 2020

License Fee S     Bel          Apr 26   $125k g 4&up f/m            6f            Turf        $125/Apr 11

Campanile S       GG         Apr 26   $100k g 3yo f S   8f            Turf        $50/Apr 17

Silky Sullivan       GG         Apr 26   $100k g 3yo c/g S              8f            Turf        $50/Apr 17

Flora S (JPN-IIT)                JRA         Apr 26   $1,042k a             3yo f      10f          Turf        Closed on Mar 17.

Yomiuri Milers Cup (JPN-IIT)       JRA         Apr 26   $1,187k a             4&up     8f            Turf        Closed on Mar 17.

Steve Sexton Mile S (GIII)            LS            Apr 26   $300k g 3&up     8f            Dirt         $0/Apr 11

Singletary S         SA           Apr 26   $100k g 3yo         8f            Turf        $100/Apr 16

Russell & Helen Foutz Distaff      SuR        Apr 26   $60k g   3&up f/m S         6.5f        Dirt         $200/Apr 12

April 27, 2020

Miranda Diane S               WRD      Apr 27   $55k g   3&up f/m S         6f            Dirt         $0/Apr 16

April 28, 2020

* Champions Day Marathon S    CD          Apr 28   #$115k a              4&up     12f          Dirt         $0/Apr 11

TRAO Classic Sprint S      WRD      Apr 28   $55k g   3&up c/g S          6f            Dirt         $0/Apr 17

April 29, 2020

Ascot Shop Paradise S    ASC        Apr 29   $49k g   4&up     8f            Turf        $246/Apr 22

Longines Sagaro S (ENG-IIIT)       ASC        Apr 29   $80k g   4&up     16f          Turf        $798/Apr 22

Merriebelle Stable Pavilion S (ENG-IIIT) ASC        Apr 29   $106k g 3yo         6f            Turf        $1,064/Apr 22

Kentucky Juvenile S        CD          Apr 29   $150k g 2yo         5f            Dirt         $150/Apr 11

April 30, 2020

* Opening Verse S           CD          Apr 30   #$115k a              4&up     8f            Turf        $0/Apr 11

Unbridled Sydney S        CD          Apr 30   $150k g 3&up f/m            5.5f        Turf        $150/Apr 11

Gulfstream Park to Host $750k Florida Derby G1 despite Global Dampanic

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Saturday, March 2, 2020.  Gulfstream Park may be closed for in-person spectators, but the racing continues this weekend with a spectacular 14 race card on Saturday headlined by the $750k, Grade 1 Florida Derby.  180 horses are entered on the day, competing for over $2 million in prize money in 5 graded stakes, 4 listed stakes, and other assorted races.

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The Florida Derby is always a big deal and this year is no exception.  In fact, with no Kentucky Derby until September, the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby will be the biggest American races for a while.  Tiz The Law is the even money favorite after his big closing move in the Holy Bull G3 early February here at Gulf.

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Ete Indien put on a clinic in the Fountain of Youth G2 here about a month ago, going gate to wire and drawing away as nobody in the field could match his speed. But before that he was indeed caught by Tiz the Law before in the Holy Bull, where he finished a game 2^nd.

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Independence Hall looks to regain his undefeated New York form after a 2^nd place finish in the Sam Davis G3 last month. Looking for value? Gouverneur Morris at 8-1 was top 12 in our December Derby Double Dozen and was strong in his 2020 debut. Todd Pletcher may have a rare one slipping under the radar.

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Ajaaweed 20-1 also made the initial DDDD after a strong 2nd in the Remsen G2 at this same distance at Aqueduct last year. Then the very disappointing Sam Davis G2 performance has him off the radar. If he returns to Remsen form he could be a very dangerous closer.

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As Seen On TV (12-1) has been solid and consistent, winning a stakes race, then placing 2^nd in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes and 3^rd in the FOY.  After that, the 13 horse field doesn’t have much to offer, except for Disc Jockey at 20-1, with good PF’s coming in. Long shot special alert!!!

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What you need to do next is just download the free Gulfstream Grid below and make your picks for all 14 races.   What you should also do is get the Grid for all major tracks and races, and in the process support a small business which is struggling amidst a global damn panic.

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Gulfstream Park Saturday Grid Here

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Cheers!

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Wednesday, March 18, 2020.  Doom and gloom have settled upon countless countries around the world as people live in fear of a spreading virus.  Most are staying home by choice, and some are being forced to stay home, where many don’t know what to do with themselves and are already going stir crazy.

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Most people like to have some kind of entertainment such as sports, but even all the great American spring sports have been canceled:  The Masters Tournament, NCAA Basketball tournaments, all team sports in general at every level.  All sports except for horse racing.  

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This is a great time to reconnect with the sport of kings, especially since all the other live sports are unavailable.  But racing continues worldwide, and you can have someone to root for, when you watch the little muscular humans mount those big beautiful beasts and race around.  

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One of the world’s oldest sports, horse racing has survived many wars in which horses participated, the rise and fall of the Roman Empire and the Third Reich, two world wars, an Ice Age, the Dark Ages, and countless plagues and floods.  And it will survive the latest virus outbreak and anything that follows.  

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Let’s face it: you need a distraction, and horse racing not only fills that bill, but gives you a chance to make some extra money while you’re sitting at home already getting tired of your family nagging you, and doing chores to try to keep them happy. This weekend, racing continues at most race tracks around the world.

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In fact, Keeneland is the only major US track that has canceled its spring meet.  Aqueduct, Oaklawn, Gulfstream, Santa Anita, and most others are continuing to run without spectator attendance.  They can do this because most of their spectators view and bet remotely from wherever they are around the world.

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One such track still racing is the Fairgrounds of New Orleans, which will host a crowded Grade 2 Louisiana Derby this weekend.  It’s unclear why they’re not running it in 2 divisions like they did the Risen Star G2 last month, but a very competitive field of 14 with 2 alternates is waiting to run for the $1 million purse.

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FGNO will begin the day with the Crescent City Derby, for a much smaller purse, they have the Crescent City Oaks, 3 MSW’s for 3yo’s, and 3 more graded stakes including the FG Oaks G2.  Altogether, there are 12 races with over 140 horses entered, running for about $2.6 million in purse money.

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So the possibilities on the day are endless, but to give you the best chance, get The Grid and make your picks with that.  It just so happens we already have the Grid posted for this Saturday’s Fairgrounds card (free) along with some free analysis of the Louisiana Derby and other races and long shot specials.

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As always, you can Get the Grid here and never miss the best info for every major track and race.

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Wednesday, March 18, 2020.  Racing continues at the Fairgrounds in New Orleans this weekend with its biggest race day of the year.  8 stakes racing culminating in the $1 Million Grade 2 Louisiana Derby will have over 140 horses competing for $2.6 million in purses.

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You won’t be watching any live professional sports this spring.  But you can watch the Louisiana Derby and Sunland Derby this weekend, and next weekend the Florida Derby and UAE Derby.  The winners and some others from these races will be running in the Kentucky Derby later this year.

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There’s no reason to not get in on the three year old Derby action right now, especially since you have literally no other sports to watch.  But horse racing you can watch every day and every weekend.  Big 3yo action in April will continue with the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass, Santa Anita and Arkansas Derby.

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We’ve got the Saturday Fairgrounds Grid for you linked right below ,with all 12 races including the Louisiana Derby and FG Oaks, and you can click here to get the Grid for all major tracks and races across North America. Race breakdowns will appear below starting with the Derby.

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Louisiana Derby G2 9.5f, $1M, 3yo:

For the first time, this race will be held at 1 3/16 mile (9.5f) rather than the traditional 1 1/8 (9f) that it has been in the past. It’s unclear exactly why the race is not being held in two divisions, since there are more horses desiring to enter than the 16 it was capped off at, 2 of which are alternates.

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9 of the 16 raced in one of the two divisions of the Risen Star G2 (RSd1 and 2) last month and want to prove they were really the best from those fields. Notably missing is Mr. Monomoy, winner of the first and faster of the two divisions.  He’s off the KY Derby trail for now but could easily be back on it by September.

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Enforceable (7-2ML) was the runner up of RSd1 after a big closing move.  He’s the ML favorite here today should be the post favorite. Silver State (8-1) was held on for 3^rd in that race after being passed by Enforceable.  Farmington Road (12-1, alt) closed from behind Enforceable but could not catch him or Silver State and wound up 4^th.  Those are the 4 from RSd1 and have to be considered strongly.

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From RSd2 we have the winner Modernist (6-1) who held on after taking over a slow pace from NY Traffic (15-1) who held on for 3^rd after also being passed by Major Fed (8-1) who closed from 5^th to 2^nd. Behind them was Mailman Money (15-1) who closed from 6^th to 4^th, Mr. Big News (20-1, alt) in 5^th and Lynn’s Map (30-1) who closed from last to get 6^th just 4 lengths back. Arguably all of these except the top 2 can say they had an excuse that the pace was too slow.  But it might be slow on Saturday too.

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Others worth noting are the speedy Wells Bayou (8-1) coming off of 2^nd in the Southwest G3, Portos (8-1) 3^rd in the Withers G3, and Royal Act (10-1) who shipped east after 2^nd in the RB Lewis G3 behind Baffert’s Thousand Words. There are 3 coming off an OC50 that will have to do much better to make noise here, the best of which appears to be Chestertown (15-1).

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On paper there isn’t an inordinate amount of speed, but Wells Bayou and NY Traffic are almost guaranteed to go to the lead early.  Modernist won’t be far behind but has shown the ability to sit behind the pace when the going gets hot. A slew of others will be pressing the pace.

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And then you have the big closers, notably Enforceable with 2^nd LP, but you wouldn’t guess who was 2^nd in LP?  Lynn’s Map, who is dying to get a fast pace up front to run at for once.  Next in LP are Chestertown, Silver State, Major Fed and Farmington.

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It’s hard to tell right now exactly how it will play out now without scratches and seeing how the track plays. But there are some definitepossibilities of long shots, especially if the early speed shows up as advertised and the 9.5f helps the closers.

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Top picks in order of preference for exotics:

Enforceable 7-2

Major Fed 8-1

Lynn’s Map 30-1

Royal Act 10-1

Silver State 6-1

Farmington Road (alt) 12-1

Chestertown (15-1)

Wells Bayou (8-1)

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Fairgrounds Oaks G2 8.5f 3yo f:

The race before the Derby is a night and day difference.  A field of 6 and a legit favorite, so not many possibilities. The only one more than 5-1 ML with a chance is Stop Shoppin Tammy at 8-1, who has the speed but will need to continue to improve in her 3^rd start.

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Get the Grid for all the big tracks and races here.

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Tuesday, March 17, 2020. Churchill Downs officially announced the postponement of the Kentucky Derby until September 5, at which point the coronavirus causing global panic will have been magically cured. Governor Larry Hogan followed suit and decreed the Preakness postponed to September as well.

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The only prior postponement of the famous Triple Crown was in 1945 when FDR decreed a wartime ban on horse racing until June. In that case, the Derby was only a month late. This time it will presumably be 4 months late if they actually do run it this year. The importance at that point will be questionable, weeks after the last meaningful 3yo race of the year, the Travers at Saratoga, is normally run.

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Of course, the decision is purely financial. Government dictators in multiple US states have decreed small businesses being shut down and banned travel. Many are staying home out of sheer panic. In the current state of affairs, there is just no way that Churchill Downs and Louisville can possibly bring in enough attendees to make it worth the month-long fanfare production normally leading up to the race and the expenses required.

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It’s unclear what will happen exactly to the remaining races and tracks across the US. Keeneland has already canceled its legendary spring meet which always culminates in the Grade 2 Bluegrass Stakes in early April, an important Derby prep race. Other tracks are also closing or contemplating cancellations. For now the Belmont Stakes is still on but the date is subject to change.

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The Triple Crown this year, if it ever does run it’s course, will be one for the history books, and have asterisks on all the pages. We’ll keep watch of course, as required by our business, as to what tracks and races are still open. But it could well be that this Grade 2 weekend’s Louisiana Derby is the last big 3yo race in a while, which is probably the reason it has an overflow field and could be run in 2 divisions ala the Risen Star.

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Get the Derby Grid in case they ever do run it.

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Saturday, March 14, 2020.  Turfway Park has the famous Jeff Ruby Steaks G3 today, which is an excellent pun and proof that Jeff Ruby is still a cool dude. I recall him visiting our table at his restaurant a decade or so ago and telling us how he recently kicked out OJ Simpson because other customers were uncomfortable dining near a murderer.  

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If you find yourself in Louisville for whatever reason, make sure you visit Jeff Ruby Steakhouse up near the river.  I don’t do free advertising very often, but it’s well worth it. Excellent food, great atmosphere, no murderers allowed. I understand he has some restaurants in Cincinnati also and I’m sure they’re great.

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Back to the task at hand: The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes G3.  If I could sum it up with 2 words, Michael Maker, who has 3 of 12 in the race.  It could be 2^nd ML choice Field Pass (Lemon Drop Kid), who may legitimately not like dirt but could like Polytrack. But that’s not the one I like the most.

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Also coached by Maker is Fancy Liquor, fresh off his 8f 1^st race maiden win at 8f on turf.  Not a bad choice, and there’s no telling what the son of Lookin at Lucky could do in his second start, on poly this time.  But that’s not the one I like the most.

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Victory Boulevard, by Dialed In, listed at 30-1 ML as the co-2^nd longest shot in the field, is the one I like the most.  Last out was his first start under Maker.  It was a 6f sprint on dirt he won by 3 lengths after coming from 10 lengths back at first call.  He shows 2^nd in LP in the Grid but my guess is another race or 2 he will be top LP in just about any field.  I like him to win this race straight up, and I know 30-1 is just a pipe dream. I’m guessing he goes off at 15-1.  But don’t be dissuaded, bet on him at anything over 4-1.

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Speaking of LP, the top in that category belongs to Myamonoi, who has looked good in his 3 turf starts, the last being 4^th in a stakes race. He’s an S0 straight up closer and will be in the picture as long as there’s at least an honest pace, which is still a question mark.

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Steve Asmussen’s Halo Again, who won his only poly race so far, the $225k Coronation Futurity at Woodbine, is 3^rd in LP and has a great tactical speed running style.  This one will finish in the money barring the unforeseen. 8-1 odds are great already but anything over 4-1 is solid.

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Morning line favorite Invader of course is legit to win or hit the board, but that will likely be dependent on whether he has any pressure on for the lead.  His last 2 races, nobody challenged for the lead and he won easily.  I doubt they’ll let him do whatever he wants on the lead this time.

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2 others worth mentioning.  Dack Janiel’s, who besides having a cool name, may have turned the corner last time with his maiden win.  Maybe more of a hunch but I think he’ll run big.  The Stiff at 12-1 ML with good LP and numbers across the board, also could hit the board if with a good trip.

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The long shot special for this race and the entire day is Victory Boulevard, who won’t go off anywhere near 30-1 but hopefully maintain double digits.  The Stiff is also a good one to bet.

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There are other great long shot specials on the card.  For example, the last race, a MSW 3, has both Jilt and Judge Johnny at 20-1, and both are legit to hit the board or win. 

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Get the Grid every race day, don’t miss any major track or race day.

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March 2020 Thoroughbred Stakes Calendar for North America, Japan, Ascot

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March Stakes Highlights (full schedule below this)

Mar.6-8  Churchill:  Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 3/ Oaks Pool 1

Mar.7- Aqueduct:  Gotham G3, Tom Fool G3, Busher, Stymie

Mar.7- Tampa Bay:  Tampa Bay Derby G2, Fla Oaks G3, Hillsborough G2, Challenger G3

Mar.7- Santa Anita: Big Cap G1, San Felipe G2, San Carlos G2, Kilroe Mile G1

Mar.14- Oaklawn: Rebel G2, Azeri G2, Essex

Mar.14- Turfway: Jeff Ruby Steaks G3, 5 other stakes races

Mar.21- Fairgrounds: Louisiana Derby G2, FG Oaks G2, New Orleans G2, Muniz G2, 4 more

Mar.21- Houston: 7 listed stakes races

Mar.22- Sunland:  Sunland Derby G3, Oaks, 5 other stakes

Mar.28- Aqueduct:  10 listed stakes

Mar.28- Gulfstream: Fla Derby G1, GP Oaks G2, Pan Am G2, Orchid G3, 3 more stakes

Mar.29- Tampa:  6 listed stakes races

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March 7, 2020

Busher Invitational          Aqu        Mar 7    $250k g 3yo f      8f            Dirt         Not Available

Gotham S (GIII)                Aqu        Mar 7    $300k g 3yo         8f            Dirt         Closed on Feb 22.

Stymie S               Aqu        Mar 7    $125k g 4&up     8f            Dirt         Closed on Feb 22.

Tom Fool H (GIII)              Aqu        Mar 7    $200k g 4&up     6f            Dirt         Closed on Feb 22.

Allen “Black Cat” Lacombe Memorial S   FG          Mar 7    $75k g   3yo f      abt 8f    Turf        Closed on Feb 22.

Ogataul S             Fon        Mar 7    $20k a   3&up S  6f            Dirt         Closed on Feb 29.

Captiva Island    GP          Mar 7    $75k g   4&up f/m            5f            Turf        Closed on Feb 23.

Silks Run S           GP          Mar 7    $75k g   4&up     5f            Turf        Closed on Feb 23.

Ocean S (JPN-IIIT)            JRA         Mar 7    $815k a 4&up     6f            Turf        Closed on Jan 21.

Tulip Sho (JPN-IIT)           JRA         Mar 7    $1,042k a             3yo f      8f            Turf        Closed on Jan 21.

Honeybee S (GIII)            OP          Mar 7    $300k g 3yo f      8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Feb 27.

Hot Springs S      OP          Mar 7    $150k g 4&up     6f            Dirt         Closed on Feb 27.

Bert W. Martin Foundation S      Ril           Mar 7    $5,000 a                3&up     5.5f        Dirt         Not Available

China Doll S         SA           Mar 7    $75k a   3yo f      8f            Turf        Closed on Feb 27.

Frank E. Kilroe Mile (GIT)              SA           Mar 7    $400k g 4&up     8f            Turf        Closed on Feb 27.

San Carlos S (GII)              SA           Mar 7    $200k g 3&up     7f            Dirt         Closed on Feb 27.

San Felipe S (GII)              SA           Mar 7    $400k g 3yo         8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Feb 27.

Santa Anita H (GI)            SA           Mar 7    $600k g 4&up     10f          Dirt         Closed on Feb 27.

Challenger S (GIII)           Tam       Mar 7    $100k g 4&up     8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Feb 22.

Columbia S          Tam       Mar 7    $75k g   3yo         8f            Turf        Closed on Feb 22.

Florida Oaks (GIIIT)         Tam       Mar 7    #$200k g              3yo f      8.5f        Turf        Closed on Feb 22.

Hillsborough S (GIIT)       Tam       Mar 7    #$225k g              4&up f/m            9f            Turf        Closed on Feb 22.

Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (GII)               Tam       Mar 7    #$400k g              3yo         8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Feb 22

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March 8, 2020

Heavenly Prize Invitational          Aqu        Mar 8    $125k g 4&up f/m            8f            Dirt         Not Available

Yayoi Sho (JPN-IIT)          JRA         Mar 8    $1,089k a             3yo         10f          Turf        Closed on Jan 21.

DeFazio Distaff  Ril           Mar 8    $5,000 a                3&up f/m            6.5f        Dirt         Not Available

Santa Ysabel S (GIII)        SA           Mar 8    $100k g 3yo f      8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Feb 27.

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March 13, 2020

Temperence Hill S            OP          Mar 13  $125k g 4&up     12f          Dirt         Closed on Mar 1.

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March 14, 2020

Correction S       Aqu        Mar 14  $100k g 4&up f/m            6f            Dirt         Closed on Feb 29.

Red Camelia S    FG          Mar 14  $60k g   4&up f/m S         abt 8f    Turf        Closed on Feb 29.

Orphan Kist S     Fon        Mar 14  $20k a   3&up f/m S         6f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 7.

Hurricane Bertie S (GIII)                GP          Mar 14  $150k g 4&up f/m            7f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 1.

Falcon S (JPN-IIIT)            JRA         Mar 14  $759k a 3yo         7f            Turf        Closed on Feb 4.

Nakayama Himba S (JPN-IIIT)     JRA         Mar 14  $717k a 4&up f/m            9f            Turf        Closed on Feb 4.

Beyond the Wire S          Lrl           Mar 14  $100k g 3yo f      8f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 5.

Harrison E. Johnson Memorial S                Lrl           Mar 14  $100k g 4&up     9f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 5.

Nellie Morse S   Lrl           Mar 14  $100k g 4&up f/m            8f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 5.

Private Terms S Lrl           Mar 14  $100k g 3yo         abt 8.5f Dirt         Closed on Mar 5.

Azeri S (GII)        OP          Mar 14  $350k g 4&up f/m            8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Mar 5.

Essex H OP          Mar 14  $350k g 4&up     8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Mar 5.

Rebel S (GII)       OP          Mar 14  $1,000k g             3yo         8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Mar 5.

Beholder Mile (GI)          SA           Mar 14  $400k g 3&up f/m            8f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 5.

San Simeon S (GIIIT)       SA           Mar 14  $100k g 3&up     5.5f        Turf        Closed on Mar 5.

Animal Kingdom S            TP           Mar 14  #$75k g 3yo         6.5f        AW         Closed on Feb 29.

Bourbonette Oaks           TP           Mar 14  #$150k g              3yo f      8f            AW         Closed on Feb 29.

Jeff Ruby Steaks (GIII)   TP           Mar 14  #$250k g              3yo         9f            AW         Closed on Feb 29.

Kentucky Cup Classic      TP           Mar 14  #$150k g              4&up     9f            Dirt         Closed on Feb 29.

Latonia S              TP           Mar 14  #$100k g              4&up f/m            8f            AW         Closed on Feb 29.

Rushaway S        TP           Mar 14  #$100k g              3yo         8.5f        AW         Closed on Feb 29.

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March 15, 2020

Damon Runyon S             Aqu        Mar 15  $100k g 3yo S     7f            Dirt         Closed on Feb 29.

Fillies’ Revue (JPN-IIT)   JRA         Mar 15  $1,042k a             3yo f      7f            Turf        Closed on Feb 4.

Kinko Sho (JPN-IIT)         JRA         Mar 15  $1,344k a             4&up     10f          Turf        Closed on Feb 4.

Irish O’Brien S    SA           Mar 15  $100k g 4&up f/m S         5.5f        Turf        Closed on Mar 5.

Curribot H           Sun        Mar 15  $75k g   3&up     8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Mar 6.

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March 20, 2020

Flower Cup (JPN-IIIT)     JRA         Mar 20  $701k a 3yo f      9f            Turf        Closed on Feb 4.

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March 21, 2020

Cicada S                Aqu        Mar 21  $100k g 3yo f      6f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 7.

Costa Rising S     FG          Mar 21  $75k g   3&up S  abt 5.5f Turf        Closed on Mar 7.

Crescent City Derby        FG          Mar 21  $75k g   3yo S     8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Mar 7.

Crescent City Oaks          FG          Mar 21  $75k g   3yo f S   8.32f      Dirt         Closed on Mar 7.

Muniz Memorial Classic (GIIT)    FG          Mar 21  $300k g 4&up     abt 9f    Turf        Closed on Mar 7.

New Orleans Classic (GII)             FG          Mar 21  $400k g 4&up     9f            Dirt         Closed on Mar 7.

Tom Benson Memorial S               FG          Mar 21  $100k g 4&up f/m            abt 8.5f Turf        Closed on Mar 7.

TwinSpires.com Fair Grounds Oaks (GII)                FG          Mar 21  $400k g 3yo f      8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Mar 7.

TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (GII)     FG          Mar 21  $1,000k g             3yo         9.5f        Dirt         Closed on Mar 7.

Budweiser-Tondi S          Fon        Mar 21  $20k g   3&up     6f            Dirt         $0/Mar 14

Melody of Colors             GP          Mar 21  $75k g   3yo f      5f            Turf        $0/Mar 8

Texas Glitter S   GP          Mar 21  $75k g   3yo         5f            Turf        $0/Mar 8

Bara Lass S          Hou        Mar 21  $75k g   3yo f S   6f            Dirt         $0/Mar 11

Groovy S              Hou        Mar 21  $75k g   3yo S     6f            Dirt         $0/Mar 11

Richard King Turf S           Hou        Mar 21  $75k g   4&up S  9f            Turf        $0/Mar 11

San Jacinto Turf S             Hou        Mar 21  $75k g   4&up f/m S         8.5f        Turf        $0/Mar 11

Spirit of Texas S                Hou        Mar 21  $75k g   4&up S  6f            Dirt         $0/Mar 11

Star of Texas S   Hou        Mar 21  $75k g   4&up S  8f            Dirt         $0/Mar 11

Yellow Rose S    Hou        Mar 21  $75k g   4&up f/m S         6f            Dirt         $0/Mar 11

Southern Park S                MVR      Mar 21  $75k g   3yo f S   6f            Dirt         $50/Mar 11

Gazebo S             OP          Mar 21  $125k g 3yo         6f            Dirt         $0/Mar 12

San Luis Rey S (GIIIT)      SA           Mar 21  $200k g 4&up     12f          Turf        $100/Mar 12

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March 22, 2020

Hanshin Daishoten (JPN-IIT)       JRA         Mar 22  $1,344k a             4&up     15f          Turf        Closed on Feb 4.

Spring S (JPN-IIT)             JRA         Mar 22  $1,089k a             3yo         9f            Turf        Closed on Feb 4.

Budweiser Pima County Classic  Ril           Mar 22  $6,000 a                3&up     8.5f        Dirt         Not Available

Sensational Star S            SA           Mar 22  $100k g 4&up S  5.5f        Turf        $100/Mar 12

Bill Thomas Memorial S Sun        Mar 22  $100k g 3&up     6.5f        Dirt         $0/Mar 13

Harry W. Henson H          Sun        Mar 22  $100k g 3&up f/m            8f            Dirt         $0/Mar 13

New Mexico Breeders’ Derby    Sun        Mar 22  $120k g 3yo S     8.5f        Dirt         $0/Mar 13

New Mexico Breeders’ Oaks       Sun        Mar 22  $120k g 3yo f S   8.5f        Dirt         $0/Mar 13

New Mexico State University S  Sun        Mar 22  $120k g 4&up S  8.32f      Dirt         $0/Mar 13

Sunland Derby (GIII)       Sun        Mar 22  $700k g 3yo         9f            Dirt         Closed on Feb 14.

Sunland Park Oaks           Sun        Mar 22  $200k g 3yo f      8.5f        Dirt         $0/Mar 13

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March 27, 2020

Appleton S (GIIIT)            GP          Mar 27  $100k g 4&up     8f            Turf        $0/Mar 15

Hal’s Hope S (GIII)            GP          Mar 27  $100k g 4&up     9f            Dirt         $0/Mar 15

Sir Shackleton S                GP          Mar 27  $75k g   4&up     7f            Dirt         $0/Mar 15

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March 28, 2020

Belle Gallantey  Aqu        Mar 28  $45k g   4&up f/m R         7f            Dirt         $50/Mar 21

Caixa Eletronica                Aqu        Mar 28  $80k g   4&up R 7f            Dirt         $50/Mar 21

Dads Caps           Aqu        Mar 28  $45k g   4&up R 7f            Dirt         $50/Mar 21

Kelly Kip S            Aqu        Mar 28  $55k g   4&up R 6f            Dirt         $50/Mar 21

More to Tell S    Aqu        Mar 28  $60k g   4&up R 8f            Dirt         $50/Mar 21

Peeping Tom S  Aqu        Mar 28  $70k g   4&up R 6.5f        Dirt         $50/Mar 21

Sis City S               Aqu        Mar 28  $60k g   4&up f/m R         8f            Dirt         $50/Mar 21

Stud Muffin        Aqu        Mar 28  $75k g   4&up R 11f          Dirt         $50/Mar 21

Videogenic S      Aqu        Mar 28  $55k g   4&up f/m R         6f            Dirt         $50/Mar 21

Xtra Heat S          Aqu        Mar 28  $75k g   4&up f/m R         6.5f        Dirt         $50/Mar 21

Carolina Cup       Cam       Mar 28  $50k g   4&up     19f          Turf        $125/Mar 16

Star Guitar S       FG          Mar 28  $60k g   4&up S  8.5f        Dirt         $0/Mar 14

Pepsi S  Fon        Mar 28  $15k a   3yo f      6f            Dirt         $0/Mar 21

Curlin Florida Derby (GI)               GP          Mar 28  $1,000k g             3yo         9f            Dirt         $0/Mar 15

Cutler Bay S        GP          Mar 28  $125k g 3yo         8f            Turf        $0/Mar 15

Gulfstream Park Oaks (GII)          GP          Mar 28  $250k g 3yo f      8.5f        Dirt         $0/Mar 15

Kitten’s Joy Pan American S (GIIT)            GP          Mar 28  $250k g 4&up     12f          Turf        $0/Mar 15

Orchid S (GIIIT) GP          Mar 28  $100k g 4&up f/m            11f          Turf        $0/Mar 15

Sand Springs S   GP          Mar 28  $100k g 4&up f/m            8f            Turf        $0/Mar 15

Sanibel Island S GP          Mar 28  $125k g 3yo f      8f            Turf        $0/Mar 15

Mainichi Hai (JPN-IIIT)    JRA         Mar 28  $759k a 3yo         9f            Turf        Closed on Feb 18.

Nikkei Sho (JPN-IIT)        JRA         Mar 28  $1,344k a             4&up     12.5f      Turf        Closed on Feb 18.

Nodouble Breeders’ S    OP          Mar 28  $125k g 3&up S  6f            Dirt         $0/Mar 19

Santa Ana S (GIIIT)          SA           Mar 28  $200k g 4&up f/m            10f          Turf        $100/Mar 19

Arizona Stallion S              TuP        Mar 28  $30k a   3yo S     8f            Dirt         Not Available

Wildcat H             TuP        Mar 28  $30k g   3&up     11f          Turf        $0/Mar 18

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March 29, 2020

East View S         Aqu        Mar 29  $100k g 3yo f S   7f            Dirt         $100/Mar 14

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March S (JPN-III)              JRA         Mar 29  $717k a 4&up     9f            Dirt         Closed on Feb 18.

Takamatsunomiya Kinen (JPN-IT)             JRA         Mar 29  $2,297k a             4&up     6f            Turf        Closed on Feb 18.

Santana Mile S  SA           Mar 29  $75k a   4&up     8f            Dirt         $0/Mar 19

DRF Bets Sprint Tam       Mar 29  $110k g 4&up S  6f            Dirt         $0/Mar 14

Equistaff              Tam       Mar 29  $110k g 3yo S     8.5f        Turf        $0/Mar 14

Ocala Breeders’ Sales Sophomore            Tam       Mar 29  $110k g 3yo S     7f            Dirt         $0/Mar 14

Pleasant Acres Stallions Distaff Turf         Tam       Mar 29  $110k g 3&up f/m S         8.5f        Turf        $0/Mar 14

Stonehedge Farm South Sophomore Fillies          Tam       Mar 29  $110k g 3yo f S   7f            Dirt         $0/Mar 14

Touch Vodka Turf Classic              Tam       Mar 29  $110k g 4&up S  9f            Turf        $0/Mar 14

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Get the Kentucky Derby Grid!

Precap of This Weeks’ Big 3yo races: San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby, and Gotham Stakes. Grid PP’s

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Saturday, March 7, 2020.  The Big 3 Derby Prep races of early March will be run on Saturday, with Aqueduct hosting the Gotham Stakes G3, the Tampa Bay Derby G2 at Tampa Bay Downs, and the San Felipe G2 at Santa Anita. We coined the term Precap for purposes just such as this.

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Let’s take a quick look at the 3yo Derby Prep races which I know our audience here is particularly interested in.  There are big stakes racing cards at both Santa Anita, including the Big Cap G1, Aqueduct, and Tampa Bay Downs, but for the purposes of this article we’ll just look at the 3 Derby preps.

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Gotham Stakes G3 8f at Aqueduct.

This is probably the least significant 50 point Derby prep to date, and the point system is only a few years old.  The last Gotham champion to win the Kentucky Derby was Secretariat in 1973, and further, over 90% of winners since then either didn’t finish on the board in the Derby or even run in it. 

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This year, the Gotham is significant for not having any of the top Kentucky Derby contenders in the field.  No entries from Futures Pool 3, and none from the Derby Double Dozen. In fact, there are only 3 stakes winners in the field of 11, and 5 of them are fresh off breaking their maiden last out.

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The favorite will understandably be Mischievous Alex, who handily won each of his last 2 races, both 7f stakes, but had some difficulty holding speed in his prior 2 races at a mile, 1 of which was on turf. In his current form it looks like his speed should hold up well for a piece of the pie at 8f.

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Second morning line choice Untitled is also uncertain at this distance. He lost to Alex by 7 in the Swale G3 at 7f, but came back for 2^nd in a mile OCM at Tampa.  Repeating his debut 11 length win at 6f doesn’t seem likely at 8f.

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3^rd ML choice Attachment Rate at 9-2 is the best bet yet.  His performances have gone up significantly in each of his starts, increasing in distance, culminating with a 6 length win and the 2^nd best dirt PF on the field, accomplished on a muddy maiden win last out at a mile.  He has the top LP in the Grid.

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War Stopper 5-1 has a similar streak of improvement in his 4 races, the last 2 on dirt which he has taken to quite well.  Last out he thrived on the lead for the first time, winning from gate to wire at a mile at Aqueduct, after lollygagging early in his previous 3 races.

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Montauk Traffic at 6-1 ML also continues to improve, winning his last 2 at 7f at Aqueduct, including a 100k stakes race in come from behind fashion.  He has 2^nd best LP in the Grid to date.

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Sixto 8-1 broke maiden first out at 6f here at Aqueduct with an impressive PF, the same as that of Mischievous Alex in his debut. He could definitely improve with distance and his 2^nd time out. The top PF overall of any in the field was Untitled in his 6f debut.

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There are a couple others worth mentioning here.  Most intriguing is Flap Jack, 30-1 in his 4^th career start.  Last out he broke maiden in a 7f stakes on polytrack, and supposedly didn’t like the surface in his prior 2 on dirt and turf.  It’s possible he was just too green and could improve again here.

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First Deputy, also 30-1, failed miserably in his only mile race, finishing 11 back at Aqueduct after trying to chase a brutal pace. But he’s looked good in his last 2 races, both 6f wins at Aqueduct, the last one going away by 5 lengths. 

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Most of these Gotham contenders haven’t been turning Kentucky Derby heads so far, but the winner will likely be viewed by most as a major contender.  That’s a lot of time spent breaking down the least meaningful race, but it has a lot of possibilities and therefore a good betting race.

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Tampa Bay Derby G2, 8.5f, TB Downs

Back over to Tampa Bay, which had record high temperatures of 90 on Thursday, it will be cooling off overnight and perhaps reach highs in the mid 60s on Saturday, with lots of sunniness. The Derby day card includes the Florida Oaks G3 and some other graded stakes, and some MSW’s for 3yo’s.

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Naturally the morning line favorite is Sole Volante at 2-1, who got a nice pace to run at for his closing move winning the Sam Davis G3 here a month ago. Chance it at 5-2 could well be the post time favorite, with 4 wins (3 stakes) and 2 close runner up finishes.  Last out in January, he won his first contest in open company at Gulfstream.

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The only other with single digit odds is Market Analysis at 8-1 ML, who won his debut at 7f at Gulfstream in Jan, and is coached by Pletcher, ridden by JRV.

Spa City and Unrighteous could be next up after they achieved big PF’s for running 1-2 in a maiden at Gulfstream a month ago. Unrighteous only finished 1 back after closing on the winner from 5^th, so it’s unclear why his price is twice that of Spa City. 

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Unrighteous also has top LP, largely due to that effort. Chance It had the same single race LP a couple races back, and the only horse with a higher single race LP was Sole Volante in the Davis.  Chance It is tied for 2^nd best aggregate LP with Texas Swing, but again that is mostly due to his gate to wire win last out. Regardless, Texas Swing at 12-1 has to be considered a live long shot.

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Because of the amount of speed on paper in this race, it sets up best for Sole Volante and Unrighteous, who I seriously doubt will go off at anywhere near 20-1.  Chance It and Market Analysis will likely be forwardly placed but have enough grit to hit the board.

Letmeno at 12-1 ML has been waiting for a fast pace to run at.  The only time in his 4 starts he got one, he ran big at 7f. The last 2 out at a mile plus he ran well but there was no pace. He has consistent strong LP and should hit the board in this one.

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San Felipe G2, 8.5f Santa Anita

Back out west in sunny southern cal, 5 horses will line up to try and beat Baffer’s duo of Authentic and Thousand Words, both graded stakes winners with high Triple Crown hopes. John Shirreffs will try to beat them with Honor AP, who hasn’t raced since breaking maiden in October.

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Storm Court is the only other single digit ML entry.  After winning the BC Juvenile here last year at 46-1, he was bit flat in this year’s debut, holding on to 4^th in the San Vicente G2 at 7f.  So he’s still really not proven at a mile plus.

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Wrecking Crew is the only real value play at 12-1.  After his 3^rd in the BCJ, he was eased in the Los Al Futurity after running poorly.  So he’s largely unproven at a mile or more as well. To be honest, the whole 7 horse field is unproven, and each could be considered a 1 race wonder at a mile plus.

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So you’re still reading, and wondering: where’s my free fucking grid?  It’s right there in the link below.. We decided on Santa Anita because the Big Cap still has G1 status and there’s also the Kilroe Mile on turf, always entertaining, and don’t forget the San Carlos G2.  But we gave you Grid stats for big races at 2 other tracks as well. You’re welcome.

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Get The Grid for all major tracks and races here. Great time to join with a 2 month plan, which would get you thru the Kentucky Derby, or the 3 month plan, getting you also the Preakness and Belmont Stakes! One time payment options available.

Thursday, March 5, 2020.  The Kentucky Derby and Oaks Futures Pool 3 opens on Friday March 6 and will run through Sunday March 8.  The favorite as usual is the field (all other 3yo’s) of which there are several prominent ones not listed in the pool, some of which are running this weekend.

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The individual lukewarm morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby is Tiz the Law at 8-1 who had an impressive Holy Bull G3 win in his February debut.  For the Oaks it’s Venetian Harbor 8-1, coming off a big Las Virgenes G2 win also in Feb.  Steve Asmussen ties Baffert with 6 individual entries in the pools.

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Besides providing you The Grid free for this pool (you’re welcome) we also highlighted the Derby contenders running this weekend, of which there are 7 total in the San Felipe Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby, and 0 in the Gotham.  Stay tuned tomorrow for the Precap of those 3 stakes races.

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Get the Kentucky Derby Grid and the Grid for all the big tracks and races here.

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Tuesday, March 3, 2020.  Yesterday we looked at the odds of all the winners and our Grid long shot specials who won and hit the board on the huge stakes day of February 29 at Gulfstream Park.  Today we look at the fractions of all the dirt races on the day, with a close look at the dirt races for 3yos that could be headed to the Kentucky Derby.

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We’ve summed up the fractions of the dirt races in a concise table below.  The owners of each fraction are listed below each figure of the race.  We expected the top 2, 4, and 6f fractions to be registered by the 3yos in the Hutcheson Stakes.  But what happened? Take a look…

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That is not what happened at all. The speedy 3yo I’ll Fight Dempsey would have blew them away in his debut for Todd Pletcher, registering the best 2f 4f 6f fractions among 3yo’s for the day.  But those weren’t the best 4f and 6f times of the day.  Those belonged to the older horses in the GP Mile G2.

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Now going in we did expect the GP Milers to get the best mile time of the day and probably the best 6f time, which they did both with Mr. Freeze.  But Bodexpress also got the best ½ mile of the day of 45.32, also beating all the 3yo sprinters.

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We also expected the talented Fountain of Youth G2 field to get the best mile time of the 3 races >= 8f for 3yos.  And they did, but Ete Indien also delivered the fastest opening fraction of the day among all 5 of the mile+ races on the day, en route to his impressive gate to wire victory.

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Tonalist’s Shape also led every step of the way in the Davona Dale G2, and got the 2^nd best 6f route fraction of the day for 3yo’s by 4/100 of a second over Ete Indien.  It was the only filly dirt race of the day so she had no competition out of this field.

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Now that we’ve done the analysis, let’s hand out some awards for the top contenders:

Most Impressive 3yo:  Ete Indien (Summer Front, Patrick Biancone)

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Best 3yo filly:  Tonalist’s Shape (Tonalist, Saffie Joseph)

Fastest 3yo:  I’ll Fight Dempsey (Into Mischief, Todd Pletcher)

Best 3yo closer:  With Verve (Kantharos, Larry Bates)

Best horse overall:  Mr. Freeze (To Honor and Serve, Dale Romans)

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Going forward here’s what we can expect. Ete Indien will make his first appearance in the Kentucky Derby Futures Pool, with pool 3 opening this weekend, but his odds won’t be great.  I’ll Fight Dempsey could start pointing towards the Triple Crown Trail.

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Stay tuned for our next Kentucky Derby Double Dozen to be released this week in time for Pool 3, which will include runners for 3 big Kentucky Derby Preps on Saturday.