Weekend Winners Club

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December 2020. The USA and Japan remain open for stakes racing. It’s too cold in Canada but Aqueduct is open.

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2020 December Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule North America and Japan

Race	Track	Date	Purse	Age/Sex	Dist	Surf	Fee, Due Date
Cigar Mile H (G1)	Aqu	05-Dec	$250k g	3&up	8f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
Demoiselle S (G2)	Aqu	05-Dec	$150k g	2yo f	9f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
Go for Wand H (G3)	Aqu	05-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m	8f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
Remsen S (G2)	Aqu	05-Dec	$150k g	2yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
Pan Zareta S	FG	05-Dec	$75k g	3&up f/m	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 21.
Gold Rush	GG	05-Dec	$75k g	2yo	8f	AW	Closed on Nov 26.
Claiming Crown Canterbury	GP	05-Dec	$90k g	3&up R	5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 8.
Claiming Crown Distaff Dash	GP	05-Dec	$90k g	3&up f/m R	5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 8.
Claiming Crown Emerald	GP	05-Dec	$95k g	3&up R	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 8.
Claiming Crown Express	GP	05-Dec	$75k g	3&up R	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 8.
Claiming Crown Glass Slipper	GP	05-Dec	$80k g	3&up f/m R	8f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 8.
Claiming Crown Iron Horse	GP	05-Dec	$75k g	3&up R	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 8.
Claiming Crown Jewel	GP	05-Dec	$150k g	3&up R	9f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 8.
Claiming Crown Rapid Transit	GP	05-Dec	$85k g	3&up R	7f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 8.
Claiming Crown Tiara	GP	05-Dec	$95k g	3&up f/m R	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 8.
Challenge Cup (G3T)	JRA	05-Dec	$815k a	3&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Oct 13.
Stayers S (G2T)	JRA	05-Dec	$1,247k a	3&up	18f	Turf	Closed on Oct 13.
Starlet (G1)	LRC	05-Dec	$300k g	2yo f	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Aug 27.
Maryland Juvenile	Lrl	05-Dec	$100k g	2yo c/g S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 26.
Maryland Juvenile Filly	Lrl	05-Dec	$100k g	2yo f S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 26.
Inaugural S	Tam	05-Dec	#$100k g	2yo	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
Sandpiper S	Tam	05-Dec	#$100k g	2yo f	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
Garland of Roses	Aqu	06-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
New York Stallion Series (Fifth Ave. Div.)	Aqu	06-Dec	$250k g	2yo f R	7f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
New York Stallion Series (Great White Way Div.)	Aqu	06-Dec	$250k g	2yo c/g R	7f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
Champions Cup (G1)	JRA	06-Dec	$2,000k a	3&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Oct 13.
Magic City Classic	FG	11-Dec	$50k g	3&up S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 18.
Alex M. Robb S	Aqu	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up S	9f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 28.
Louisiana Champions Day Classic	FG	12-Dec	$150k g	3&up S	9f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 16.
Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile S	FG	12-Dec	$100k g	2yo S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 16.
Louisiana Champions Day Ladies Sprint S	FG	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 16.
Louisiana Champions Day Ladies Turf S	FG	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m S	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 16.
Louisiana Champions Day Lassie S	FG	12-Dec	$100k g	2yo f S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 16.
Louisiana Champions Day Sprint S	FG	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 16.
Louisiana Champions Day Turf S	FG	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up S	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 16.
Fort Lauderdale S (G2T)	GP	12-Dec	$200k g	3&up	9f	Turf	Closed on Nov 28.
Harlan's Holiday S (G3)	GP	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 28.
My Charmer	GP	12-Dec	$75k g	3&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 28.
Rampart S (G3)	GP	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m	8f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 28.
Sugar Swirl S (G3)	GP	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 28.
Chunichi Shimbun Hai (G3T)	JRA	12-Dec	$815k a	3&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Oct 27.
Soviet Problem S	LRC	12-Dec	$100k g	2yo f S	8f	Dirt	Not Available
FTBOA City of Ocala Florida Sire S	Tam	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 28.
FTBOA Marion County Florida Sire S	Tam	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up c/g S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 28.
Bay Ridge S	Aqu	13-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m S	9f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 28.
Capella S (G3)	JRA	13-Dec	$717k a	3&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Oct 27.
Hanshin Juvenile Fillies (G1T)	JRA	13-Dec	$1,299k a	2yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Oct 27.
Steve Prather S	Zia	14-Dec	$50k g	2yo S	8.32f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 2.
Queens County	Aqu	19-Dec	$100k g	3&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 5.
Blushing K.D. S	FG	19-Dec	$75k g	3&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Dec 5.
Buddy Diliberto Memorial S	FG	19-Dec	$75k g	3&up	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Dec 5.
Letellier Memorial S	FG	19-Dec	$75k g	2yo f	6f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 5.
Richard R. Scherer Memorial S	FG	19-Dec	$75k g	3&up	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Dec 5.
Sugar Bowl S	FG	19-Dec	$75k g	2yo	6f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 5.
Tenacious S	FG	19-Dec	$75k g	3&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 5.
Mr. Prospector S (G3)	GP	19-Dec	$100k g	3&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 6.
Via Borghese S	GP	19-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m	9.5f	Turf	Closed on Dec 6.
Turquoise S (G3T)	JRA	19-Dec	$717k a	3&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Oct 27.
Los Alamitos Futurity (G2)	LRC	19-Dec	$200k g	2yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Aug 27.
Bobbie Bricker Memorial H	MVR	19-Dec	$75k g	3&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	$50/Dec 9
Joshua Radosevich Memorial S	MVR	19-Dec	$75k g	2yo S	6f	Dirt	$50/Dec 9
Asahi Hai Futurity S (G1T)	JRA	20-Dec	$1,410k a	2yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Oct 27.
King Glorious S	LRC	20-Dec	$100k g	2yo c/g S	8f	Dirt	Not Available
Jeffrey A. Hawk Memorial S	RP	20-Dec	$60k g	3&up	8.32f	Dirt	$0/Dec 7
Jim Thorpe S	RP	20-Dec	$70k g	3yo S	8f	Dirt	$0/Dec 7
Remington Springboard Mile	RP	20-Dec	$200k g	2yo	8f	Dirt	$0/Dec 7
She's All In S	RP	20-Dec	$75k g	3&up f/m	8.32f	Dirt	$0/Dec 7
Trapeze S	RP	20-Dec	$60k g	2yo f	8f	Dirt	$0/Dec 7
Useeit S	RP	20-Dec	$70k g	3yo f S	8f	Dirt	$0/Dec 7
Joseph E. "Spanky" Broussard Memorial S	FG	26-Dec	$75k g	3&up f/m	8.32f	Dirt	$0/Dec 12
Pago Hop S	FG	26-Dec	$75k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	$0/Dec 12
Woodchopper S	FG	26-Dec	$75k g	3yo	8f	Turf	$0/Dec 12
H. Allen Jerkens S	GP	26-Dec	$75k g	3&up	16f	Turf	$0/Dec 13
Tropical Park Derby	GP	26-Dec	$75k g	3yo	8.5f	Turf	$0/Dec 13
Tropical Park Oaks	GP	26-Dec	$75k g	3yo f	8.5f	Turf	$0/Dec 13
Hanshin Cup (G2T)	JRA	26-Dec	$1,344k a	3&up	7f	Turf	Closed on Nov 10.
Hopeful S (G1T)	JRA	26-Dec	$1,410k a	2yo	10f	Turf	Closed on Nov 10.
Allaire duPont (G3)	Lrl	26-Dec	$150k g	3&up f/m	9f	Dirt	$0/Dec 17
Anne Arundel County S	Lrl	26-Dec	$100k g	2yo f	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Dec 17
Dave's Friend S	Lrl	26-Dec	$100k g	3&up	7f	Dirt	$0/Dec 17
Gin Talking S	Lrl	26-Dec	$100k g	2yo f	6f	Dirt	$0/Dec 17
Heft S	Lrl	26-Dec	$100k g	2yo	6f	Dirt	$0/Dec 17
Howard County S	Lrl	26-Dec	$100k g	2yo	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Dec 17
Native Dancer S	Lrl	26-Dec	$100k g	3&up	9f	Dirt	$0/Dec 17
Willa On the Move S	Lrl	26-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m	7f	Dirt	$0/Dec 17
American Oaks (G1T)	SA	26-Dec	$300k g	3yo f	10f	Turf	$100/Dec 10
La Brea S (G1)	SA	26-Dec	$300k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	$100/Dec 10
Lady of Shamrock S	SA	26-Dec	$75k a	3yo f	8f	Turf	$0/Dec 10
Mathis Brothers Mile (G2T)	SA	26-Dec	$200k g	3yo	8f	Turf	$100/Dec 10
Runhappy Malibu S (G1)	SA	26-Dec	$300k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	$100/Dec 10
San Antonio S (G2)	SA	26-Dec	$200k g	3&up	8.5f	Dirt	$100/Dec 10
Arima Kinen (G1T)	JRA	27-Dec	$6,000k a	3&up	12.5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 10.
Eddie Logan S	SA	27-Dec	$75k a	2yo	8f	Turf	$0/Dec 10
Robert J. Frankel S (G3T)	SA	27-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m	9f	Turf	$100/Dec 10
Louisiana Futurity	FG	31-Dec	$100k e	2yo c/g S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Louisiana Futurity	FG	31-Dec	$100k e	2yo f S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Blue Norther S	SA	31-Dec	$75k a	2yo f	8f	Turf	$0/Dec 17

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Saturday, November 28.  Churchill Downs is hosting its unofficial annual juvenile day, with 12 races, all for 2yo’s in various categories, capped off by the Golden Rod G2 for fillies and Kentucky Jockey Club G2 for open 2yo’s.  

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Over 140 juveniles are initially entered in what will be a great racing day.  Connections will not only see how their 2yo’s measure up to the competition, but also evaluate their liking to Churchill Downs, both ultimately to see if they should steer back to Churchill for the first Saturday in May.

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We’re about to break down some of the key races, so grab today’s free grid and follow along.

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The Kentucky Jockey Club G2 at about 6pm features 9 horses with one coupled entry, 3 of which have their own in entries in the Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 1, which is still open until Sunday.  The 3 also ran in the BC Juvenile G1 earlier this month:  Keepmeinmind 3^rd, King Fury 7^th, and Sittin On Go 9^th.

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Not surprisingly, Keepmeinmind is the heavy morning line favorite, coming off by far his best career race, but he also had a smoking hot pace to run at from behind.  As you can see, there’s not a lot of speed in this race.  A pair of E6’s doesn’t usually dictate a torrid pace.

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In fact, Swill with the inside post and top EP rating could be a contender in deep stretch if they don’t pressurize him.  But it looks to set up best for King Fury, who got shuffled around in the BCJ and finished poorly.  Before that he won the Street Sense, beating two others in this field.

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After the obvious favorite, there are a lot of possibilities here, and it will come down to which horse steps up in class, what riders make the smart trip and pace calls, and who has the best trip. 

Best guess:   4 7 2 6 1/1a.  LSS 6. Definitely use the coupled entry, you get 2 for 1.

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The Golden Rod G2 at about 5PM has a similar theme, in that there is a very obvious first choice, the heavy morning line favorite, Simply Ravishing who is top 10 in the AFH, then it will come down to a lot of the same things mentioned above.  The big difference is there’s a lot of speed in this field of 10.

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Simply Ravishing 1-1 is the sole rep from the BCJF, where she finished 4^th after chasing around a moderate pace 2 lengths back after a bobbled start.  Today she should get a nice honest pace up front and does her best running late.  But you can see there’s only 1 filly with less than 5 Quirin points.

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That would be my 2^nd choice, and what will likely be the 2^nd public choice, Clairiere, so far a 1-race wonder, but it was a good win, and it tied her for 2^nd best PF in the field, coming from 5 lengths back to break maiden first asking.

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After that, it’s hard not to like Coach, who’s undefeated in 3, and Travel Column, also tied for the 2^nd best PF, albeit at sprint.  Both are at single digits and trained by Brad Cox, whose barn has been doing very well in Kentucky.  Farsighted 15-1 is my first long shot special and could surprise at this distance.  Lady Lilly also looks strong coming in at 15-1 ML. 

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Prediction:  8 6 3 5 4 1     LSS 4 1

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Race 3 is an OCM75kn1x starting at about 2PM and although the field is shortened to 7 after a scratch, it’s still quite interesting.  Scarred is the ML favorite and has an individual entry in Pool 1 after breaking maiden first out for Steve Asmussen, and ranks #9 in the initial Derby Double Dozen released this week.

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2^nd ML choice Hidden Stash broke maiden 3^rd try in impressive fashion, setting the high PF in this field while improving in the increased distance of 8.5f for Victoria Oliver.  Camp Hope won at first ask for Kenny McPeek at 8.5f here at Churchill, followed by a disastrous BCJ that we don’t know the reason for.  After that I like Cousin Larry to complete the super for Larry Jones in his first mile contest.

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The rest of the races have some nice big fields with lots of possibilities, and some first time starters sprinkled in of course, so it could be a good day for some long shot specials.  Pay attention to how the track plays out, win some big bucks, and most of all, enjoy the juvenile racing!

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Here are the full slate of picks including long shots specials (LSS).  

R1:  5 6 10 4 9 12                LSS 4 9 12

R2:  10 7                LSS 1 12 3 6

R3:  6 4 8 3           LSS 2

R4:  8 7 2 3           LSS 5 6

R5:  2 4 14 7         LSS  8 9 1

R6:  8 1 6 4 10 12                LSS 1 4 10

R7:  1 4 7 2 3 6     LSS 2 3 6

R8:  4 5 10 9 2 6                  LSS 10

R9:  8 6 3 5 4 1     LSS 4 1

R10:  10 1 11 2 6 4              LSS 1 11 2 4 3      SLSS 7

R11:  4 7 2 6 1/1A              LSS 6

R12:  9 7 10 11    LSS 6 3 4 5

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Get the Grid for all your favorite tracks right here.

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November 27, 2020.  Churchill Downs.  Yes, it was only 2.78 months ago that the 2020 Kentucky Derby was run, but it’s late in the year and time to start looking at the 2021 Kentucky Derby contenders.  This initial version of the Derby Double Dozen is here because Futures Pool 1 is running this weekend, and we already posted the Grid and some analysis for that earlier this week.

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This Double Dozen is yet another objective look at the contenders, but with expert judgment and analysis involved in the process, rather than just a purely statistical list like the American Free Handicap.  In short, it’s my take on the top Derby contenders right now.  Below the table is a brief explanation of the top 12.

2021 Kentucky Derby Double Dozen November 27 2020

Rk	Horse	Sire	Trainer	HiPf	Last	Race	Next Up
1	Life Is Good	Into Mischief	Baffert Bob	96	1st	MSW 57k DM Nov.22
2	Essential Quality	Tapit	Cox Brad H	96	1st	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6
3	Highly Motivated	Into Mischief	Brown Chad C	97	1st	Nyquist Stk Nov.6
4	Jackie's Warrior	Maclean's Music	Asmussen Steven M	96	4th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6
5	Keepmeinmind	Laoban	Diodoro Robertino	93	3rd	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6	KYJC G2 Nov.28
6	Dr. Schivel	Violence	Glatt Mark	96	1st	Del Mar Fut G1 Sep.7
7	Hot Rod Charlie	Oxbow	O'neill Doug	95	2nd	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6
8	Savile Row	Quality Road	Baffert Bob	88	1st	MSW 57k DM Nov.8
9	Scarred	Into Mischief	Asmussen Steven M	86	1st	MSW 85k CD Nov.5	OCM75k CD Nov.28
10	Fire At Will	Declaration Of War	Maker Michael J	92	1st	BC Juv Turf G1 Nov.6
11	Pickin' Time	Stay Thirsty	Breen Kelly J	89	1st	Nashua G3 Nov.8
12	Red Flag	Tamarkuz	Shirreffs John	90	1st	Bob Hope G3 Nov.15
13	Rombauer	Twirling Candy	Mccarthy Michael W	88	5th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6
13	Simply Ravishing	Laoban	Mcpeek Kenneth G	94	4th	BC Juv Fillies G1 Nov.6	Golden Rod G2 CD Nov.28
14	Reinvestment Risk	Upstart	Brown Chad C	93	10th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6
15	Speaker's Corner	Street Sense	Mott William I	89	1st	MSW 63k Bel Nov.11
16	King Fury	Curlin	Mcpeek Kenneth G	90	7th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6	KYJC G2 Nov.28
17	Caddo River	Hard Spun	Cox Brad H	91	1st	MSW 85k CD Nov.15
18	Hidden Stash	Constitution	Oliver Victoria	88	1st	MSW 70k Kee Oct.24	OCM75k CD Nov.28
19	Super Stock	Dialed In	Asmussen Steven M	91	2nd	Street Sense Oct.25
20	Ten For Ten	Frosted	Mcgaughey Claude Iii	89	2nd	Nashua G3 Nov.8
21	Sittin On Go	Brody's Cause	Romans Dale	89	9th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6	KYJC G2 Nov.28
22	Get Her Number	Dialed In	Miller Peter	87	1st	Am. Pharoah G1 Sep.26
23	Midnight Bourbon	Tiznow	Asmussen Steven M	86	3rd	Champagne G1 Oct.10

The first Derby Double Dozen for the 2021 Kentucky Derby as of November 27 2020

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1. LIFE IS GOOD!  Coming off his debut a week ago, where he registered the 2^nd best Grid PF of any contender in Pool 1.  One race wonder? Life is always good when the trainer is Bob Baffert and the sire is Into Mischief, a combination that won 2 of the last 3 editions of the Kentucky Derby.
2.  ESSENTIAL QUALITY.  The Brad Cox trainee is undefeated in 3, first breaking maiden at Churchill, then winning the Breeders’ Futurity G1, then the BC Juvenile G1.  He was ranked #1 before Baffert’s horse freaked out first out, and is probably 1 on most lists, and deservedly so.
3. HIGHLY MOTIVATED.  Chad Brown’s top contender set the high Grid PF mark last out while setting a track record at Keeneland on the first race of Breeders’ Cup Friday.  Into Mischief is looking good in the Future Sire wager this weekend, but we won’t get anywhere near the 17-1 we got last year.
4. JACKIE’S WARRIOR.  Only an idiot would give up on this one for one subpar race, which losing by 3 lengths in the BCJ by most wouldn’t be considered subpar.  But the high bar he set before that going undefeated in 4 including 2 Grade 1’s, makes it subpar.  He didn’t have the right trip in the crowded field and the pace was very fast. He’ll be back.
5. KEEPMEINMIND took another big step up in his 3^rd race finishing 3^rd in the BCJ after a strong 2^nd in the Breeders’ Futurity.  Great closing action 2 races in a row as evidenced by his top LP rating in the Grid.  Keep him in mind because he could improve again next out.
6. DR. SHIVEL has now won two in a row, including the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, which was only at 7f but it was still a win.  Mark Glatt announced he’s done enough this year and will race again next year sometime.  He’ll be off radar so now might be a good time to lock in the futures bet.
7. HOT ROD CHARLIE wasn’t on anyone’s radar after barely breaking his maiden fourth try at Santa Anita.  Then he got a fast pace up front in the BCJ and closed for a great 2^nd place at 94-1 for Doug O’neill, but in the end he got caught by the top dog.
8. SAVILE ROW is another one race wonder technically, but again his trainer is some guy named Baffert and he won easily enough at first asking and probably has more in the tank.
9. SCARRED is a one race wonder trained by Steve Asmussen, wherein he broke maiden easily at Churchill, where he will race again Saturday in an OCM75k, facing off with Hidden Stash at 8.5f.
10. FIRE AT WILL won the BC Juvenile Turf making his 3^rd consecutive win, a streak that began with an off turf run on the slop at Saratoga.  Michael Maker could put him back on dirt anytime.
11. PICKIN’ TIME has quietly put together 2 stakes wins including the Nashua G3, two days after the rest of the top juveniles ran at the Breeder’s Cup.  But he might be the best of the rest.
12. RED FLAG won the Bob Hope G3 for John Shirreffs the weekend after the BC, winning it easily and setting a good PF in the process.

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Keepmeinmind, King Fury, and Sittin On Go are all entries in Futures Pool 1, and are racing in the Kentucky Jockey Club G2 on Saturday.  Scarred is also running on Saturday in the OCM75k with Hidden Stash, who’s in the top 25 but not in the Pool. 

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So if you’re inclined to bet on one or more of those, maybe lock in your future bet on Friday, because if they win on Saturday, their futures odds will go down on Saturday and Sunday.  The rest of those listed, it’s usually best to just wait until Sunday and see what odds you get.

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Get the Grid for all your favorite tracks this weekend here.

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Wednesday, November 25, 2020.  The first futures pool for the Kentucky Derby 2021 edition opens this Thursday, Thanksgiving Day and will run thru Sunday.  The Juveniles have already been running for Derby points, starting on this year’s Derby day in September, and 22 have their own entry in the futures pool.

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Meet the contenders.

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We have the Pool 1 Grid all ready for you this week and the first 2021 Derby Double Dozen rankings will be release later in the week.  Download the full Futures Grid here and start making your own picks, then get ready for the Dozen and find out who the best bets are.

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The Field is of course the heavy favorite in Pool 1 as it is every year, with Essential Quality listed at 10-1 ML as the deserving individual entry favorite, as the BCJ winner usually is.  Not far behind is Baffert’s Life Is Good who arrived on the scene with a debut 9 length win last weekend. 

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Speaking of which, its wasn’t the field, also 6-5 ML last year and closing at a ridiculous 1-1, that won this year’s Kentucky Derby.  It was Baffert’s Authentic, opening at 20-1 in Pool 1 and closing at 50-1.  So he was an example of a rare Pool 1 bet that not only ran but won on Derby day.

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You probably wish you boxed him with Tiz the Law in an exacta last November, which ended up paying $4 grand, much more than on Derby day.  I’ve never bet the Derby exacta that early before, so in this analysis we’re going to figure out if you should do it this year.  Every year is different so let’s check it out.

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In 2019 you recall the Derby was all screwed up with the DQ, but neither Maximum Security or Country House were in Pool 1.  The only way you would have won money was to have the Field on top of Code of Honor in an exacta, and even so, that only would have worked because of the DQ.  It paid a respectable $171 with Code of Honor at 18-1 in Pool 1.  But that exacta paid $3 grand on Derby day.

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Here’s what happened from pool 1 in prior years this decade: 

2018:  Justify hadn’t debuted yet.  Field over Good Magic paid $52, less than on Derby day.

2017:  Always Dreaming was field.  Field over Lookin at Lee paid $161, less than half the Derby payday.

2016:  Nyquist individual fav at 9-1, Derby Day 2-1. Future exacta with Exaggerator paid $194, but only $30 Derby day.

2015:  American Pharoah 12-1 (5-2 Derby day).  Field exacta paid $58, Derby day $72. 

2014:  California Chrome and Commanding Curve were both field 4-5.  5-2 and 37-1 Derby day.

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Prior to 2014, Pool 1 did not begin until February, so it’s a bit of apples and oranges to compare.  In only two of the 7 cases above were both the winner and runner up found in Pool 1, in which case it was profitable to bet that exacta, especially for 2020. 

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In all the other years but 2014, a field with the eventual winner or runner up in the exacta box was the winner, usually with the field on top.  So this looks like the best winning bet, but is it? Let’s analyze.  You noticed that the exacta paid less than the Derby payout for every field/entry box.  But you also get a lot of unnamed horses in the field in one bet rather than boxing however many.

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The second thing to keep in mind is that if you don’t box the right individual entry with the field, then you win nothing.  The best bet is probably to take your favorite 3, 4, or 5, or however many in your budget, individual entries and box them with the field.  Include some good long shots and Baffert trainees. 

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Bet to win on any of those at 20-1 or better that you think have a good chance, or even at 10-1 or better if you think they have a really good shot at it.  Remember it’s Pool 1, and most of these entries won’t even run for the roses next May.  In 2019, only 5 Pool 1 horses made the field, in 2020 only6 made it.

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It’s really early, and only 25% of the horses listed will even run for the roses on average, so you have to get really good odds to bet it.  That’s why betting the field to win is horrible bet at even money or anything less than 5-1 to be honest.  It is however, good to include with your exacta box as shown above.

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Stay tuned for the first Derby Double Dozen this week and remember there is a key juvenile race at Churchill this weekend, so pay attention to whether your favs are running in that or not before deciding when you will bet. 

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Good luck!

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Sunday, November 22.  Weekend graded stakes racing continues at Woodbine today as juveniles take center stage late in the afternoon with a pair of G3’s.  The Grey Stakes for boys and Mazarine for fillies will determine who the top 2yo’s are in Canada right now. 

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History has taught us to not scoff at the Canadian 2yo champs, lest you overlook a horse like Mine That Bird at 50-1 in the Kentucky Derby.  Given, he put on about 100 pounds between that and his Canadian victories, but that can happen.  It can also happen that a horse freaks on dirt after running poly. 

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Today we’ll just handicap the two graded races and you can do the rest.  After all, this shit is free, so we’re not doing everything for you.  Grab today’s free Woodbine Grid and follow along.

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R10 5:58ET 8.5f A Grey-G3 2 YO:  8 7 1 3 4 9 5     LSS 4 9 5

Casse’s Posse of two will both finish ITM, and when he’s got a pair in the race, always go with the longer price.  Easy Time had an easy time in his only outing and his PF is on the same level as Helium’s two.  The pair of them has the top 3 PF’s on the board.  20-1 Lucky Score had comparable speed last out but 8.5f is a bit farther than 5.5f.  Gospel Way can’t beat Helium but can beat most others.  Barrister Tom could throw a wrench into everything if he likes the AW.  The winner of this race could appear as an individual entry in the Derby Futures Pool starting Thursday so watch out.

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R11 6:28ET 8.5f A Mazarine-G3 2 YO F:  7 2 1 6 4                LSS 2

It’s a short field of 7 so don’t bank too much on it, but rather increase your base amount.  Once again we have a Casse pair, including the heavy favorite Souper Sensational.  But remember what I said above.  Sleek Lynx at 8-1 only lost by 4.5 in a G1 on turf, and if she likes the poly could give Casse two exactas in a row.  Bottom line, bet the two Casse exactas in the two G3’s.

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Other assorted LSS’s that you should heed attention to.  Note this list only includes 8-1 or higher on the morning line, not all contenders.  The point is to break the bank.

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R1 1:25ET 6f A OClm 40000 3 UP FM:  LSS 7 6 5

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R2 1:55ET 5f A Clm 15000 3 UP:  LSS 7 5 2

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R3 2:25ET 6.5f A MSW 2 YO F 126800:  LSS 1 6

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R4 2:55ET 7f A Md 5000 3 UP:  7 11

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R5 3:28ET 6.5f A MSW 2 YO  126800:  9

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R6 3:58ET 5.5f A Moc 40000 2 YO: 3 4

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R7 4:28ET 12f A Alw 101200n1x 3 UP:  5 6

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R8 4:58ET 6f A Clm 15000n2l 3 UP:  4 8

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R9 5:28ET 8.5f A Clm 5000 3 UP:  8 13

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R12 6:58ET 6f A OClm 40000 3 UP: 4 7 10

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R13 7:28ET 8.5f A Clm 5000n2l 3 UP:  5 7 12

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That’s it for today my friends. There are plenty of long shot specials to go around so get your 2 bucks ready.   You can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks here.  Stay tuned to this site right here to get the first 2021 Derby Double Dozen since the Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 1 begins this week.

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Good luck!

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Saturday, November 21.  Woodbine has a great weekend of racing lined up with 5 graded stakes races along with other assorted contest in every possible category.  Today will have the Ontario Derby G3, Kennedy Road G2, Bessarabian G2, and Ontario Damsel Stakes.

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Racing is already underway so we’re just going to handicap the graded stakes races which start at about 5pm.  The Damsel looks chalky and has a short field anyway and Avie’s Samurai is the only long shot I like.  In some of the other undercard races here are some good long shot specials (LSS).  

R4:  8,5

R5: 6

R6:  9,13,11

R7:  4, 7

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Alas, we get to the stakes races.  Grab today’s free Woodbine Grid to follow along and make your picks.

R8 4:58ET 9f A OntroDby-G3 3 YO:  6 8 1 4 2        LSS 8 4 3

Mighty Heart is the strongest on paper and excels on the AW.  There’s not much speed so I give Malibu Mambo a great chance, he has top LP and keeps improving.  Mnemba Island keeps improving also but the late runner will have to close earlier.

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R9 5:28ET 6f A KenndyRd-G2 3 UP:  CHALK         LSS 1 5

Pink Lloyd is the class of the field for sure and deserving favorite.  Silent Poet may not like the AW which will open things up for Dixie’s Gamble and Souper Stonehenge, who do like the poly, at great prices.

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R10 5:58ET 7f A Bessarbn-G2 3 UP FM:  6 4 2 1 3               LSS 6 4 2 7

You gotta like it when the top 3 picks in a race are all long shot specials.  Well 6 Jakarta is 6-1 ML it may go down below 5 or it may go up, who knows.  If she likes the AW, I doubt any can catch her. The other 2 will be above 5-1 most likely.  Great LSS possibilities here.

Race 11, I like the 4 single digit steeds, some of which the odds look good now but they’ll likely all be at 5-1 or less at post time.

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That’s it for today.  Make some good picks and win some good bucks.  Remember tomorrow the Grey and Mazarine Stakes at Woodbine will provide some good insight into the top Canadian juvenile scene.

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You can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks right here.

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November 19, 2020.  The 2021 Kentucky Derby Central subsite has been deployed and updated. The pages that are updated weekly after each qualifying race include the following popular pages:

2021 Derby Points Leaders

2021 Derby Prep and Championship Series Races and Results

2020 American Free Handicap 2yo rankings

The links for these pages will remain static on the top menu if looking at it on a pc/desktop interface or side menu when looking thru a phone or small tablet browser.

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Coming next week will be the first 2021 Kentucky Derby Double Dozen top 25 rankings which will automatically appear at that link once they are uploaded. The main reason for that timing is that Derby 2021 Futures Pool 1 will begin on Thursday, November 26, so keep an eye out for that.  Last year I got Authentic in Pool 1 at 50-1 which paid me $500 on Derby day, so it’s nice to get in on it early.

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Stay tuned for regular weekly updates right here.  Bookmark this site and visit regularly if you don’t already.

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Saturday, November 14.  Gulfstream Park West, otherwise known as Calder Race Course, holds the Sunshine Millions Preview today, a misleading name all around, since neither today nor the actual Sunshine Millions day in January, will offer $1 million or more in purses.

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Nonetheless, they will run 5 stakes races worth about $300k total with some of Florida’s best horses that didn’t make the Breeders’ Cup for whatever reason.  We’re going to break down these stakes races and make some picks here, including long shot specials (LSS).

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Notes:  The weather in Miami is nice and pleasantly warm today, however, South Florida has been barraged with rain the past few days due to the storm Eta, and thus the two turf races will be run on dirt.  The track is rated fast and all the stakes races were already on dirt.  Short fields on most races.

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Enough dallying around, let’s get to the picks already, so you can stop hitting the scroll down button. First post at 1235PM, stakes racing and Rainbow 6 start at 2PM.  Get today’s free Grid here to follow along and make your own picks.

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R1 12:35ET 6f D Md 25000 2 YO:  1 3 5 6 8 9         LSS 3

R2 1:04ET 6f D OClm 50000 2 YO:  3 7 1 4 6          LSS 1

R3 1:33ET 8.5f T Off Clm 12500n2l 3 UP:  13 8 4 9              LSS 8 9

R4 2:03ET 8f D MilClsPreB60k 3 UP:  2 5 4 1

R5 2:33ET 6.5f D JuvFSprntB60k 2 YO F:  3 2 5 6

R6 3:05ET 6f D MlSprtPrvB60k 3 UP:  1 7 5 2        LSS 5 2

R7 3:38ET 6.5f D JuvSprintB60k 2 YO:  4 7 1 2 8 6              LSS 1

R8 4:08ET 7f D MilDistfB60k 3 UP FM:  4 1 2 7     LSS 2 7

R9 4:42ET 8f T Off MSW 2 YO  4600:  15 16 14 13 11 9     LSS 16 9

That’s all 9 races including the 6 short fields. Remember you can get the Grid for all the big tracks and race days right here.  

Good luck!

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Wednesday, November 11.  Zia Park has a rare nice midweek card today with the New Mexico Classic Cup, a series of 8 stakes races with $400k in purse money available.  It’s like their own little Breeders’ Cup with shorter fields, talent, and purses.  But it’s still good racing.  

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Speaking of Breeders’ Cup, take a look at our Breeders’ Cup Recap and Report Card, and see how we took advantage of some great long shot specials on Saturday to win big.

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Let’s take a look at the fields, make some picks, identify some value plays, and get some long shot specials (LSS) going. First get today’s free Grid for Zia to follow along.

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R1 2:00ET 5f D Clm 7500n3l 3 UP FM:  8 1 7 9 4 2               LSS 8 4 2

Nothing wrong with taking the top LP and 2^nd Power at 8-1. 7 and 4 will likely bounce, 1 should bounce back.

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R2 2:27ET 6f D Clm 5000b 3 UP: 11 2 12 5 4 6      LSS 12 6 8 9

Good value here if the field stays at 12.  Top LP at 15-1.  Not much speed so 8 and 9 added to mix.

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R3 2:54ET 6f D NM SprtDstB50k 3 UP FM:  6 5 1 2 4

Short field of 6, better off not betting except straight exotics. Verticals use 1 and 2 for sure.

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R4 3:21ET 8f D NMClCpFM50k 3 UP FM: 4 2 7 5 3              LSS 3

Decent value for a field of 7. 

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R5 3:48ET 6f D NMCpLssieB50k 2 YO F:  3 4 7 6 5             LSS 7 6

Decent value for field of 7 if you can get odds on 7.

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R6 4:15ET 8f D NMClasicCp50k 3 UP:  4 7 5 1 3   LSS 7

Decent value for field of 7 if you can get odds on 7.

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R7 4:42ET 6f D NMSprint50k 3 UP:  3 5 4 6 1 8      LSS 5 8

Hard to envision 3 not winning but kind of wide open after that.

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R8 5:09ET 6f D NM C CpJvChB50k 2 YO C&G: 7 8 9 5 6 2 4            LSS 7 8 4 2

Ah, this is more like it. I got a 12-1 and 20-1 for my top 2.  Great value here.  I love 2yo racing.

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R9 5:36ET 6f D NM CpDbyCB50k 3 YO C&G:  7 3 8 11 9 5               LSS 7 3

Again, 2 LSS for my top 2.  That would make for some great exotics.  Do it 2 races in a row.

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R10 6:03ET 6f D NMCpOaksB50k 3 YO F :  6 9 4 8 2 7      LSS 9 4 8 7

Lots of value here. Hard to see 6 not winning but kinda wide open after that.

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One caveat to all the picks.  They’re assuming the track is playing somewhat fairly and a lot of LP picks were made.  If it’s favoring speed early, put more emphasis on EP and the E/EP6 and up.  It’s been a year since I bet Zia so I can’t remember how it normally plays.

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You can get the daily Grid for all the big tracks and race days here.

Good luck.

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November 10, 2020.   They say hindsight is 2020, which is true in many cases, but not always when it comes to horses, and definitely not when it comes to the Breeders’ Cup 2020 at Keeneland.  There weekend was full of track records, long shots launching bombs in every other race, and some big wins for our team here using the Grid.  Over all , it was largely a tale of two days.

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Let’s just recap it race by race, starting with Friday.  The BC Juvenile day had 6 juvenile stakes races, and you know who’s good at capping the juvies right?  True, but also, they can vary widely in form from race to race, which is what happened several times on this day, leaving most of us bewildered.

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FRIDAY NOVEMBER 6:  DAY 1 DEBACLE:

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R1 11:30ET 6.5f D NyquistB125k 2 YO 

The day started off quite normally, with a co-favorite and top Power horse in the Grid winning followed by the top EP and Speed colt at 5-1.  The first track record of the weekend was set.  Not much to like about the 3^rd or 4^th placers.

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R2 12:05ET 6.5f D SongbirdB125k 2YOF

Things already started going downhill.  The 8-1 winner was 3^rd in EP, 4^th in Speed and Power in the Grid, out of 14 fillies, and had the 2^nd best PF overall, albeit set on turf.  Obviously we should have paid better attention to those figures, and hindsight close to 2020 here. Runner up made sense.  Again, nothing to like about the 3^rd place at 70-1 or the 4^th at 24-1.  But you learn and highlight the trainer and jock where they appear in the later races.

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R3 12:40ET 9f T BryStatnB150k 3 YO 

This is where the real fireworks started.  The alternate entry got in, had nothing to like on paper, and won at 74-1, the 2^nd longest in a field of 15.  He literally had the lowest high PF and the lowest power ranking in the Grid, and obviously in most other materials. 2^nd and 4^th made sense but it didn’t matter.

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R4 1:15ET 6f McCnl SprB150k 3 UP FM

Things finally made sense again here, with the 3-1 favorite / top EP/Speed on top of the top LP on top of a random top 5 on top of the top power horse.  What didn’t make sense was the jockey trainer combo from race 2, didn’t fire at all and they were never in it, even with the ML fav.  Getting the order right was the only hard part.

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R5 1:50ET 13f D TbAftAlc-G2 3 UP 

You’d figure there would be some weird things happening at the obscure 13 furlong distance that none of them had ever raced at before.  But that’s why you have the Grid, so you can at least bet on top Power, Stamina, and LP picks.  No such luck.  To sum it up, let’s just show the odds of the top 5 finishers in this 14 horse field:  11, 33, 53, 9, 41.   They’re like lottery numbers.  The top two public betting choices finished last and 3^rd to last.  At least the 4^th place horse was my top pick, but making sense of the rest of it is somewhat of a futile waste of time, and irrelevant in the grand scheme.

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R6 2:30ET 5.5f T BCJvTfSp-G2 2 YO 

This was easier to make sense of, with the obvious 4-5 winner.  The 11-1 runner up had a case also, with the 2^nd best PF overall, achieved last out. After that the two Euro invaders rounded out the super, but all of which was still tough to get with 15 entries to choose from.

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R7 3:10ET 8f T BC JuvTrf-G1 2 YO C&G

This is where you would expect the Euros to dominate the field of 14, but no, they only got 2^nd and 4^th.  On top was the 30-1 American horse that everyone overlooked.  Sure, he was 2^nd in LP and 3^rd in Stamina, but we too overlooked him for the win. The top US horse on paper, finished in the bottom half of the field at 5-1.  Oh well.

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R8 3:50ET 8.5f D BCJuvFil-G1 2 YO F

Now that our last Pick 4 was already dust, it was time to get a good win of some sort.  Easy enough with a field of 7 US fillies. We got a mild upset on top, and the favorite finished off the board, for decent tri and super payouts using boxes.  See our Precap of this race here.

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R9 4:30ET 8f T BCJvFlTf-G1 2 YO F

No surprise here with the favorite winning, followed by my 2^nd, 4^th, and 5^th choices, all Euros filling out the super at odds of 22, 11, and 5.  We got a nice dime super to pay over $500!  50 cent tri paid over $400.  The race basically saved an otherwise miserable day, but you had to know how to read Europeans.

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R10 5:15ET 8.5f D BC Juvnle-G1 2 YO C&G

Finally, the Juvenile, with a field of 14 and this is where we’ll make a bunch of money right?  Not exactly.  The winner, 2^nd choice at 7-2, and the prohibitive favorite finished 4^th at 4-5.  In 2^nd was the longest shot in the field at 94-1 and in 3^rd a 30-1 at 3^rd that there wasn’t much to like about either.  A late Pick 3 of $90 was the only real achievement here, as all other verticals were broken earlier.

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Grid Grade for Saturday:  C

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SATURDAY NOVEMBER 7:  DAY 2 RECOVERY

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R1 10:15ET 6f D PerryvlleB125k 3 YO 

Saturday started out much like Friday, with a favorite setting a track record in a sprint, this time at 1-5.  The next 3 were drawn out of a hat and the payouts sucked anyway.

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R2 10:45ET 7f D LafayetteB150k 3 UP 

Another easy winner, this time at 4-1 with the top Power horse, but no exotic win here as the runner up at 11-1 had only looked good enough on a sloppy track.  It’s a shame because 3^rd and 4^th were gettable.

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R3 11:20ET 6f D QtrFSprgsB125k 3 YO F

Another easy winner as the ML favorite won for Baffert at 5-1.  Runner up top Power at 3-1, then 3^rd broke the exotics at 40-1.  Again too bad because 4^th was easy top LP at 6-1.

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R4 12:02ET 7f D BC FMSprt-G1 3 UP FM

Baffert’s super filly Gamine set a new track record at even money. Runner up top Speed and EP at 3-1, 3^rd was our 4^th pick at 6-1, and 4^th was top LP at 28-1 that we desperately wanted to get into 3^rd.  So it was an easy exacta, tri and super all around, but the super was the only good payout.

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R5 12:39ET 5.5f T BCTrfSpt-G1 3 UP 

It’s turf so look at Euros right? There was only one, and she beat all the boys at 10-1, giving us a nice $22.40 payout on that.  Unfortunately, we couldn’t put it together with the runner up at 26-1 even tho he was 2^nd in LP, but in a sprint field of 14 we were looking for more.  Again, too bad because 3^rd and 4^th were gettable.  The best thing about this race is that we finally got on the verticals board with a Pick 4 payout of over $600.

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R6 1:18ET 8f D BCDirtMi-G1 3 UP 

Another non-surprise winner, favored Knicks Go set another track record, as he did here a month ago, this time at 9-1 odds.  The front running wins gave him both track records at 8 and 8.5f.  Unfortunately once again, the runner up at 62-1 was one of the least qualified in the field.  And again, too bad because 3^rd and 4^th made sense.

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R7 1:57ET 9.5f T BC FMTrf-G1 3 UP FM

It’s a turf route race, so what do we do here? That’s right, we convert our dollars to Euros.  That gave us an awesome win on Audarya, our 3^rd pick who gave us $37.60 on the win bet.  Our 2^nd pick the 5-2 favorite was the runner up, and our top pick lost the rider at the start at 14-1.  Ah, what could have been.  Because we overlooked the actual 3^rd and 4^th long shots as there wasn’t much to like.  The $1 Exacta still paid $100 so that wasn’t bad at all. 

Most importantly, even with 2 prohibitive favorites winning this Pick 4 sequence, thanks to putting the top Euros in there, we converted our Euros back to $917 for the Pick 4 payout while watching another track record set, this time on turf.

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R8 2:36ET 6f D BCSprint-G1 3 UP 

It’s a good thing the Pick 4 ended the race before this, because we didn’t like the 18-1 winner in a very competitive field of 14.  The only win here was an across the board wager on the runner up at 5-1, our 2^nd choice because of top LP.

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R9 3:15ET 8f T BCMile-G1 3 UP 

It’s turf, so time to convert dollars to Euros, which we did.  We took the top two Euros and both missed the board.  Instead, the absolute worst horse in the field won at 73-1 for Aidan O’brien, whose other two long shots finished 2^nd and 3^rd.  I think this one was fixed because the results still make no sense, and the commentators were praising O’brien for his support of the Breeders’ Cup every year, and saying how this race had eluded him.  It must have been some kind of gift.

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R10 3:54ET 9f D BC Distaf-G1 3 UP FM

Now that our late Pick 4 was destroyed, it was time to get back on track with an even money win by super mare Monomoy Girl at even money.  It was looking awesome in the stretch as our 3^rd pick and top long shot special Valiance pulled into 2^nd at 14-1.  However, our 2^nd LSS pick faded to 4^th at the same time, being replaced Dunbar Road at 25-1, who sabotaged what would be some good trifecta and super payouts.  Precap here shows our position.

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R11 4:33ET 12f T BCTurf-G1 3 UP 

It was time to convert to Euros again so we did, but they were over half the field so it’s a good thing we chose wisely.  Our top 4 picks included the top US horse, and they all finished in the top 4.  Imagine our pleasant surprise at a $1790 superfecta and $131 for the 50 cent trifecta.

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R12 5:18ET 10f D BCClasic-G1 3 UP 

Authentic was up to the challenge, setting another track record at 4-1, even though by that point the timekeeper was drunk and we still don’t have any fractional times.  The frontrunning win that some are saying others “let him get away with” is thus legit no matter what the fractions were. The fact is they couldn’t keep up with him.  Global Campaign at 25-1 refused to fade to 4^th, again wrecking our hopes for a good tri and super.  The Pick 3 didn’t pay a lot but better than nothing.   

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All told, using the Grid and some other unnamed sources to evaluate the foreign contingent, we reeled in over $3000 in payouts on Saturday, more than making up for a dismal Friday.  The big profit margins were on the $1500 in Pick 4 payouts, bets which cost about 10% of that.  The long shot wins and exactas made the day along with the BC Turf superfecta.  It was definitely a tale of two days.

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Grid Grade for Saturday:  A

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Hindsight 2020 would say we just shouldn’t have bet on Friday, and normally I don’t, but it’s the Breeders’ Cup for crying out loud!  As it turned out, we more than made up for it on Saturday.

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So that’s what’s possible using the Grid as your primary handicapping source.  You can get the Grid for all the major tracks and race days here.

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Good luck!

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