Weekend Winners Club

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June 3, 2020.  The Belmont Stakes has been scheduled for June 20, a typical date for the race.  But everything about it is atypical this month.  For one, there has been no Kentucky Derby; secondly there was no Preakness Stakes; and thirdly, the distance has been reduced to 9 furlongs, vastly different from the 12 furlongs that it has been run at since 1926.   

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Latest Belmont Precaps and analysis here.

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So what does that mean for this year?  Primarily, it means the Belmont Stakes is another Kentucky Derby Prep race, the prep with the highest point values ever assigned: 150 for the winner, 60-30-15 for the also-rans.  So the winner and runner up of the Belmont this year will both automatically get into the Kentucky Derby.  And the stakes have been raised such that those horses having 40-50 points may be on the fence and need to do more.

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The Belmont is in fact much like the Peter Pan Stakes in normal years, except that it is not a prep for the Belmont but rather for the Preakness and Kentucky Derby.  What it also means is that Bob Baffert has the easiest route ever to another Triple Crown sweep.  The Belmont was his bane for many years as the distance was a furlong or two too far for his top horses.  This year, the longest they will need to run is 10f in the Kentucky Derby, which being in September, will be much easier to obtain.

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Now that Nadal is out with injury, the only Baffert trainee being considered for the Triple Crown sweep is Charlatan, certainly a very talented horse albeit a tad green with racing.  The undefeated speedster may be stripped of his Arkansas Derby title and earnings due to a drug testing positive for lidocaine, but that apparently is not affecting his Belmont eligibility so that doesn’t matter at this point. 

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In fact, Baffert may be suspended for 15 days or more if found complicit in the drugging, but that won’t matter much either.  The odds of him serving the suspension during the Belmont Stakes is unlikely, as he will appeal to have it occur during another time period.  If or when the suspension does come down, he will simply officially transfer the horse to the care of an assistant trainer until the suspension is lifted.

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For a frontrunning speedster like Charlatan, a 12f Belmont would be a daunting task, as it was for Justify, one of few frontrunners to ever win it.  But at 9f, it’s obviously not a problem.  Charlatan went gate to wire in the 9f Arkansas Derby (Division 1), with nobody getting within 2 lengths of him, and winning by 6 in the end.  And he set legit fractions of 46 flat for the half mile and 1.09.6 for ¾.  Two others from that field are set to compete in the Belmont, and are just as unlikely to catch the top Power horse on June 20.  

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So who can catch the Charlatan, who has top Power in the Grid? First of all, NY Traffic and Shivaree, if they do draw into the field, will be attempting to go with him on the early pace.  That will make it a difficult pace for all three of them if they engage on the front end, and set things up for others that run off the pace.  Grab the Grid at the link below to follow along.

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Favored Tiz The Law will be the primary benefactor of this. In all 5 of his career races, he’s been consistently 2 lengths behind the leader at first call, with his only loss coming by one length on a sloppy track.  Since then he’s rattled off two decisive victories in the Holy Bull G3 and Florida Derby G1 for Sackatoga Stables and Barclay Tagg. The Grid has him at 3^rd in LP, 1^st in Stamina, and 2^nd in Power.

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Since at this point we have to assume the three E8’s and a speed duel up front, we will closely examine LP.  Tops in the category is Maxfield, also 4^th in Power and ranked 4^th in our last Derby Double Dozen, even with only two career races, the 2^nd a G1 win at Keeneland.  He debuted 2020 in style, winning again in the Matt Winn G3 on May 23 for Godolphin and trainer Brendan Walsh. 

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Second in the LP calculation is Sole Volante, who will be a long shot in this field after finishing 2^nd in the Tampa Bay Derby G2.  Not that he did anything wrong, but he was too far back to make the wire in time given the dawdling pace up front.  He’s also 3^rd in Power and Stamina, and was ranked 7^th in that last Derby Dozen.  Patrick Biancone has a serious contender here, especially if the pace scenario holds true.  

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At 3^rd in LP is Tiz The Law who we already covered, and behind him is Dr. Post, a very interesting prospect who may not actually be a long shot at post time.   The main reason being that Todd Pletcher is training him for St. Elias Stables.  Only 3 races into his career, he has been impressive and won a stakes race last out in his typical mid pack stalking style.  He could continue to improve and looms large.

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At 5^th in LP is Max Player, who has done little wrong in his career, breaking his maiden 2^nd time out and then winning the Withers G3 last out in February for owner George Hall and trainer Linda Rice, a top 10 Belmont Park trainer.  Anything over 20-1 is an awesome price for this quality midpack runner.

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That about covers it for the primary contenders.  I doubt if anyone else in the field is capable of winning, especially with the three strong Grade 1 winners we covered.  However, there is another G1 winner we didn’t mention.  Basin, who finished a distant 2^nd to Charlatan last out, won the Hopeful G1 last year at 7f.  Steve Asmussen seems to think he can get another G1 win out of him for Jackpot Farm.

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Speaking of top trainers, we also need to mention Todd actually has 3 in this tentative Belmont field.  Gouverneur Morris made it at #22 in our last Derby Double Dozen, with the thinking that he could do real damage with a hot pace up front.  There was a definite swift pace in the Arkansas Derby, but no speed duel.  Charlatan had it his own way the whole way.  Gov. Morris hung in 3^rd and finished a neck behind Basin.

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Farmington Road is the other Pletcher trainee, and is the sole representative from the other Arkansas Derby Division.  In that, he too had a legit pace to run at, but hung up in 4^th, finishing a distant 7 lengths behind frontrunning Nadal, who is out with an injury.  Before that in the Oaklawn Stakes, he made an impressive run from last place 17 lengths back to pass 11 horses and pick up 2^nd, just ½ length from victory.  A similar run could put him on the board in this field.

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So now that we have truly covered the entire tentative field, let’s go ahead and make the picks.  Keep in mind this is all hypothetical right now, and the selections are dependent on the field as we have it displayed at this time. The odds are also hypothetical and based on various online oddsmakers.  

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Predicted order of finish.

Tiz the Law 2-1

Charlatan 3-1

Maxfield 5-1

Sole Volante 15-1

Dr. Post 10-1

Max Player 25-1

Farmington Road 25-1

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Of course, after the post draw, the field and pace scenario could look vastly different.  I tried to figure out how NY Traffic can hit the board, but he simply won’t be able do it if Charlatan and Shivaree are in the race.  There’s just too much power and late pace in the current tentative field.  I went 7 deep for the super because at least one of those statistically won’t make the field.  One of the top 4 listed will win it.

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But at least we have some great solid long shot specials in there who have a legit chance to hit the board or even win.  Stay tuned as we will update the Grid and picks accordingly after the post draw the week leading up to the Belmont Stakes.  At that point we will add the jockeys and official morning line, and everything will be fine.

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June 3, 2020.  Belmont Park is finally open for racing this year, only about a month later than usual, but better late than never.  Opening day festivities include 10 races with over 100 horses running after morning scratches, and the featured Beaugay G3 on turf, which will be contested by 5 horses, all of which will win purse money.

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The Beaugay ML favorite is Rushing Fall, a multiple Grade 1 winner for Chad Brown, making her 2020 debut after a disappointing 4^th place finish in a G1 to end the 4 race 2019 campaign.  2^nd choice Got Stormy is also a multiple G1 winner and is coming off a strong 2^nd place finish in the Frank Kilroe Mile G1 in March.  Others are running for the remainder of the purse, but 12-1 Call Me Love is interesting, making her US debut for Christophe Clemente.

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Today’s outlook for Elmont NY is a strong chance of T-storms in the early and mid afternoon, such that the MTO entries remain in play at this time.   As of 1pm, races remain on the turf course which is listed as firm, and the dirt track is fast. Therefore we have to skip the turf picks for now. It’s just too confusing with the MTO’s hanging around.  Grab the free Grid provided at this link to follow along make your own picks.

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R1 1:15ET 6.5f D Md 20000 3 UP:  10 9 4 5            LSS 8 7 6

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R3 2:23ET 5f D MSW 2 YO  64000: 2 3   5 horse field of 1^st timers. 

R4 2:55ET 6.5f D Clm 10000 3 UP:  7 3 13              LSS 14 8 6 1

R7 4:32ET 6f D Md 30000 3 UP:  10 3 4 1 9 11 8 14              LSS 3 4 1 8 14

R9 5:36ET 8.5f t Beaugay-G3 4 UP FM:  1 2 3

R10 6:08ET 6f D Clm 16000n2l 3 UP:  1 7                LSS 4 6 2 14

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June 1, 2020. The Stakes Schedule for North America, Ascot and Japan has vastly improved over last month, as tracks continue to reopen after the global dampanic. Specifically, 17 North American tracks with the bulk of stakes racing occurring at Belmont and Santa Anita. Ascot will also hold a slew of about 20 graded stakes late in the month.

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June 2020 Sortable Stakes Schedule: North America, Ascot, Japan

Race	Trac	Date	Purse(USD)	Ae/Sex	Dist.	Surf.	Fee, Due Date
George W. Barker S	FL	01-Jun	$50,000	3&up S	6f	Dirt	Closed on May 20.
Shanghied S	AsD	03-Jun	$16,000	3yo	5.5f	Dirt	Closed on May 22.
Beaugay S (IIIT)	Bel	03-Jun	$100,000	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on May 23.
Tiller S	Bel	04-Jun	$80,000	4&up	11f	Turf	Closed on May 23.
Michael F. Rowland Memorial H	Tdn	04-Jun	$75,000	3&up S	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Harmony Lodge S	Bel	05-Jun	$80,000	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on May 23.
Fancy Bucles S	CT	05-Jun	$50,000	3&up f/m S	4.5f	Dirt	Closed on May 26.
Fort Marcy S (IIT)	Bel	06-Jun	$150,000	4&up	9f	Turf	Closed on May 23.
Intercontinental (IIIT)	Bel	06-Jun	$100,000	4&up f/m	7f	Turf	Closed on May 23.
Runhappy Carter H (I)	Bel	06-Jun	$250,000	3&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on May 23.
Westchester S (III)	Bel	06-Jun	$100,000	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on May 23.
Aristides	CD	06-Jun	$100,000	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on May 23.
Dogwood (III)	CD	06-Jun	$100,000	3yo f	7f	Dirt	Closed on May 23.
It's Only Money S	CT	06-Jun	$50,000	3&up S	4.5f	Dirt	Closed on May 27.
Albany S		06-Jun	$50,000	3&up	5f	Turf	Closed on May 28.
Game Face S	P	06-Jun	$75,000	3yo f	6.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Ginger Punch S	P	06-Jun	$100,000	3&up f/m S	8.5f	Turf	Not Available
Soldier's Dancer S	P	06-Jun	$100,000	3&up S	8.5f	Turf	Not Available
Naruo Kinen (JPN-IIIT)	JRA	06-Jun	$815,000	3&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Apr 28.
Cinema S	SA	06-Jun	$150,000	3yo	9f	Turf	Closed on May 28.
Crystal Water S	SA	06-Jun	$100,000	3&up S	8f	Turf	Closed on May 28.
Desert Code S	SA	06-Jun	$75,000	3yo	5.5f	Turf	Closed on May 28.
Fran's Valentine S	SA	06-Jun	$100,000	3&up f/m S	8f	Turf	Closed on May 28.
Hollywood old Cup (I)	SA	06-Jun	$300,000	3&up	10f	Dirt	Closed on May 28.
Santa Anita Derby (I)	SA	06-Jun	$400,000	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on May 28.
Santa Anita Oas (II)	SA	06-Jun	$200,000	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on May 28.
First Defence	Bel	07-Jun	$80,000	4&up	7f	Turf	Closed on May 23.
Golden Poppy		07-Jun	$75,000	3&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on May 29.
Yasuda Kinen (JPN-IT)	JRA	07-Jun	$2,297,000	3&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Apr 28.
Triple Bend S (II)	SA	07-Jun	$200,000	3&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on May 28.
La Verendrye S	AsD	10-Jun	$25,000	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on May 29.
Flat Out	Bel	11-Jun	$80,000	4&up	11f	Dirt	Closed on May 30.
Commentator H	Bel	12-Jun	$125,000	3&up S	8f	Dirt	Closed on May 30.
Ogden Phipps S (I)	Bel	13-Jun	$300,000	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on May 30.
Louisville (IIIT)	CD	13-Jun	$100,000	4&up	12f	Turf	Closed on May 30.
RedTail Landing H	CTM	13-Jun	$50,000	3&up f/m	7f	Dirt	$100/Jun 3
Alcatraz S		13-Jun	$75,000	3yo	8f	Turf	$50/Jun 4
Angels Flight S	SA	13-Jun	$75,000	3yo f	6.5f	Dirt	$0/Jun 4
Thor's Echo S	SA	13-Jun	$100,000	3&up S	6f	Dirt	$100/Jun 4
Star Shoot S	WO	13-Jun	$100,000	3yo f	6f	AW	Closed on May 27.
Woodstock S	WO	13-Jun	$100,000	3yo	6f	AW	Closed on May 27.
Mike Lee S	Bel	14-Jun	$100,000	3yo S	7f	Dirt	Closed on May 30.
Spangled Jimmy H	CTM	14-Jun	$50,000	3&up	7f	Dirt	$100/Jun 4
San Francisco Mile (IIIT)		14-Jun	$250,000	3&up	8f	Turf	$50/Jun 5
Epsom Cup (JPN-IIIT)	JRA	14-Jun	$815,000	3&up	9f	Turf	Closed on Apr 28.
Mermaid S (JPN-IIIT)	JRA	14-Jun	$717,000	3&up f/m	10f	Turf	Closed on Apr 28.
Ruidoso Sprint H	Rui	14-Jun	$30,000	3&up	5.5f	Dirt	$0/Jun 4
Possibly Perfect S	SA	14-Jun	$75,000	3&up f/m	10f	Turf	$0/Jun 4
Niagara S	FL	15-Jun	$50,000	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	$0/Jun 3
Coventry S (EN-IIT)	ASC	16-Jun	$200,000	2yo	6f	Turf	$1,995/Jun 9
King's Stand S (EN-IT)	ASC	16-Jun	$665,000	3&up	5f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Queen Anne S (EN-IT)	ASC	16-Jun	$798,000	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
St James's Palace S (EN-IT)	ASC	16-Jun	$665,000	3yo c	8f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Wolferton S	ASC	16-Jun	$146,000	4&up	10f	Turf	$732/Jun 9
Chantilly S	AsD	16-Jun	$25,000	3yo f	6f	Dirt	$0/Jun 5
Due of Cambridge S (EN-IIT)	ASC	17-Jun	$233,000	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Prince of Wales's S (EN-IT)	ASC	17-Jun	$998,000	4&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Apr 22.
Queen Mary S (EN-IIT)	ASC	17-Jun	$153,000	2yo f	5f	Turf	$1,530/Jun 10
Queen's Vase S (EN-IIT)	ASC	17-Jun	$333,000	3yo	14f	Turf	$3,325/Jun 10
Windsor Castle S	ASC	17-Jun	$126,000	2yo	5f	Turf	$632/Jun 10
Free Press S	AsD	17-Jun	$25,000	3&up	6f	Dirt	$0/Jun 5
10,000 Lakes S	Cby	17-Jun	$50,000	3&up S	6f	Dirt	$0/Jun 8
Lady Slipper S	Cby	17-Jun	$50,000	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	$0/Jun 8
Obeah S	Del	17-Jun	$100,000	3&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Jun 6
Sagamore Sired S	Ind	17-Jun	$75,000	3yo S	6f	Dirt	$100/Jun 3
Swifty Sired Fillies S	Ind	17-Jun	$75,000	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	$100/Jun 3
Gold Cup (EN-IT)	ASC	18-Jun	$665,000	4&up	20f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Hampton Court S (EN-IIIT)	ASC	18-Jun	$126,000	3yo	10f	Turf	$1,264/Jun 11
Norfolk S (EN-IIT)	ASC	18-Jun	$146,000	2yo	5f	Turf	$1,463/Jun 11
Ribblesdale S (EN-IIT)	ASC	18-Jun	$266,000	3yo f	12f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Critical Eye H	Bel	18-Jun	$125,000	3&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	$125/Jun 6
George Lewis Memorial S	Tdn	18-Jun	$75,000	3&up S	8.5f	Dirt	Not Available
J. William Petro Memorial H	Tdn	18-Jun	$75,000	3&up f/m S	8.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Albany S (EN-IIIT)	ASC	19-Jun	$126,000	2yo f	6f	Turf	$1,264/Jun 12
Commonwealth Cup (EN-IT)	ASC	19-Jun	$665,000	3yo	6f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Coronation S (EN-IT)	ASC	19-Jun	$665,000	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
King Edward VII S (EN-IIT)	ASC	19-Jun	$299,000	3yo c/	12f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Sir Cat S	Bel	19-Jun	$80,000	3yo	6f	Turf	$100/Jun 6
Chesham S	ASC	20-Jun	$126,000	2yo	7f	Turf	$632/Jun 14
Diamond Jubilee S (EN-IT)	ASC	20-Jun	$1,330,000	4&up	6f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Hardwicke S (EN-IIT)	ASC	20-Jun	$299,000	4&up	12f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Jersey S (EN-IIIT)	ASC	20-Jun	$126,000	3yo	7f	Turf	$1,264/Jun 14
Acorn S (I)	Bel	20-Jun	$300,000	3yo f	8f	Dirt	$300/Jun 6
Belmont S (I)	Bel	20-Jun	$1,000,000	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 30.
Jaipur Presented by America's Best Racin (IT)	Bel	20-Jun	$250,000	3&up	6f	Turf	$250/Jun 6
Pennine Ridge (IIT)	Bel	20-Jun	$150,000	3yo	8f	Turf	$150/Jun 6
Wonder Aain (IIIT)	Bel	20-Jun	$150,000	3yo f	8f	Turf	$150/Jun 6
Woody Stephens Presented by Claiborne Farm (I)	Bel	20-Jun	$250,000	3yo	7f	Dirt	$250/Jun 6
Audubon S	CD	20-Jun	$100,000	3yo	9f	Turf	$100/Jun 6
Wise Dan S (IIT)	CD	20-Jun	$200,000	4&up	8.5f	Turf	$200/Jun 6
Chariot Chaser H	CTM	20-Jun	$50,000	3yo f	6f	Dirt	$100/Jun 10
David Semmes Memorial Hurdle (IIT)	rM	20-Jun	$75,000	4&up	17f	Turf	Closed on Apr 20.
Steeplethon S	rM	20-Jun	$40,000	5&up	24f	Turf	Closed on Apr 20.
Virginia old Cup Timber	rM	20-Jun	$100,000	5&up	32f	Turf	Closed on Apr 20.
Mountain Top Futurity	Rui	20-Jun	$125,000	2yo S	5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Dream of Summer S	SA	20-Jun	$100,000	3&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	$100/Jun 11
Lazaro Barrera S (III)	SA	20-Jun	$100,000	3yo	6.5f	Dirt	$100/Jun 11
Snow Chief S	SA	20-Jun	$150,000	3yo S	9f	Turf	$100/Jun 11
Wilshire S (IIIT)	SA	20-Jun	$100,000	3&up f/m	8f	Turf	$100/Jun 11
Jacques Cartier S (III)	WO	20-Jun	$125,000	4&up	6f	AW	$125/Jun 3
Lady Shipman S	Bel	21-Jun	$80,000	3yo f	6f	Turf	$100/Jun 6
Western Canada H	CTM	21-Jun	$50,000	3yo	6f	Dirt	$100/Jun 11
Hakodate Sprint S (JPN-IIIT)	JRA	21-Jun	$785,000	3&up	6f	Turf	Closed on May 12.
Unicorn S (JPN-III)	JRA	21-Jun	$701,000	3yo	8f	Dirt	Closed on May 12.
American S (IIIT)	SA	21-Jun	$100,000	3&up	8f	Turf	$100/Jun 11
Melair S	SA	21-Jun	$150,000	3yo f S	8.5f	Dirt	$100/Jun 11
San Juan Capistrano S (IIIT)	SA	21-Jun	$100,000	3&up	14f	Turf	$100/Jun 11
Siren Lure S	SA	21-Jun	$75,000	3&up	5.5f	Turf	$0/Jun 11
Whimsical S (III)	WO	21-Jun	$125,000	4&up f/m	6f	AW	$125/Jun 3
Golden Boy S	AsD	22-Jun	$25,000	3yo	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Ontario County S	FL	22-Jun	$50,000	3yo S	6f	Dirt	$0/Jun 10
Hazel Wright Sire S	AsD	23-Jun	$25,000	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Frank Arnason Sire S	AsD	24-Jun	$25,000	3yo c/ S	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Easy Goer S	Bel	25-Jun	$80,000	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	$100/Jun 13
Hessonite S	Bel	26-Jun	$75,000	4&up f/m S	6f	Turf	$100/Jun 13
Just a Game S (IT)	Bel	27-Jun	$300,000	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	$300/Jun 13
New York S (IIT)	Bel	27-Jun	$250,000	4&up f/m	10f	Turf	$250/Jun 13
True North S (II)	Bel	27-Jun	$150,000	4&up	6.5f	Dirt	$150/Jun 13
Vagrancy (III)	Bel	27-Jun	$100,000	3&up f/m	6.5f	Dirt	$100/Jun 13
Bashford Manor S (III)	CD	27-Jun	$100,000	2yo	6f	Dirt	$100/Jun 13
Fleur de Lis (II)	CD	27-Jun	$200,000	4&up f/m	9f	Dirt	$200/Jun 13
Regret S (IIIT)	CD	27-Jun	$100,000	3yo f	9f	Turf	$100/Jun 13
Stephen Foster (II)	CD	27-Jun	$500,000	4&up	9f	Dirt	$300/Jun 13
Evangeline Mile	EvD	27-Jun	$100,000	3&up	8f	Dirt	$0/Jun 12
Spotted Horse	EvD	27-Jun	$50,000	3&up f/m R	7.5f	Turf	$0/Jun 12
Soi Phet S	LRC	27-Jun	$100,000	3&up S	8f	Dirt	Not Available
Daniel Stearns Cleveland Gold Cup	Tdn	27-Jun	$75,000	3yo S	9f	Dirt	Not Available
Ohio Derby (III)	Tdn	27-Jun	$500,000	3yo	9f	Dirt	$0/Jun 17
Nassau S (IIT)	WO	27-Jun	$175,000	3&up f/m	8f	Turf	$175/Jun 10
Bouwerie S	Bel	28-Jun	$100,000	3yo f S	7f	Dirt	$100/Jun 13
Takarazua Kinen (JPN-IT)	JRA	28-Jun	$3,010,000	3&up	11f	Turf	Closed on May 12.
First Lady H	Rui	28-Jun	$50,000	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$0/Jun 18

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Saturday, May 30, 2020.  We provided and posted official picks for Churchill Downs on Saturday for every race including the two stakes races.  The Report Card is intended to show how we did.  First we copy and paste the picks, then add the results and recap.  We’ve been doing very well on these. Payouts are given for those achieved using our picks in the format of $2 exacta, $1 trifecta, Dime super, 50cent pick 4.

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R1 1:00ET 6f D Md 75000 3 UP FM :  7 6 5 3 1      LSS 6

Result:  5 2 7 3.
Recap:   2 wasn’t horrible and was top 5 across the board, but in a 7 horse field that doesn’t count for a lot. Odds on 5 and 7 not worth betting at 3-2 each.  No payouts.

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R2 1:30ET 8.5f D Clm 16000 4 UP FM :  3 5 1 4    6H field

Result:  4 3 7 2
Recap:  Obviously I liked 4 and 3 and a 6h field means don’t bet exacta but wheel all on bottom of Trifecta $25.

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R3 2:00ET 9f T MSW 3 UP FM 79000:  12 5 4 10 9 1            LSS 9 1

Result:  4 12 10 9
Recap:  Finally a good sized field but too bad the top 2 betting choices finished 1-2. No surprises here and exotics were worth boxing but didn’t pay a lot.  Ex $25, Tri $26, Dime $47.

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R4 2:32ET 6f D Clm 20000 3 YO  :  4 6 5 2 1           LSS 6

Result:  4 7 2 1
Recap:  Back to a short field.  Obviously we liked the winner.  Nothing to like about the 7 except the trainer.  Busted bets but as top choice 4 was worth betting at 4-1 post time.

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R5 3:04ET 6f D Md 20000 3 UP  :  6 7 4 11 12 10 1               LSS 7 11 10 1

Result:  14 6 11 3
Recap:  There was nothing to like about this 18-1 winner but the trainer who had 2^nd best situational Win/ITM numbers according to the Grid calculations. I liked favored 6 and 11 at 47-1 but that wasn’t enough.  Worst thing about this race was it busted the Pick 4 which paid some lucky people $670. 

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R6 3:36ET 9f T Alw 81000n1x 3 YO  :  5 10 11 2    LSS 4 3 1 7

Result:  8 12 10 3
Recap:  Once again, 3 long shots of 20-1 or more sandwiching the even money favorite 10.  And once again, not much to like about the winner who had the 3^rd lowest high PF in the field of 12.  A case could be made for 12 who was 5^th in LP and Stamina, and 3 who was 3^rd in LP/Stam.  Oh well.

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R7 4:08ET 6f D WnngClrs-G3 4 UP FM :  8 2 1 7 6 3            LSS 1 6 3

Result:  4 2 8 5
Recap:  In a 6f G3 race, normally we ignore the S0 plodder with the lowest high PF in the field, even if it is tied for top LP, so we did.  It was another most unlikely winner at 13-1 but LP was starting to dominate the day.  The top 2 favorites with much superior speed couldn’t even win at 6f.

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R8 4:40ET 8.5f D MSW 3 UP  79000:  8 9 3 7 1 10                LSS 8 3 1 10

Result:  6 7 12 9
Recap:  Again, 3 long shots before we get to the 6-5 favorite.  This time, the 3^rd slowest plodder in a field of 12 won at 17-1, and wasn’t even top 5 in LP.  7 made sense but went up to 10-1 due to being one of the few early runners at a track where late runners are dominating whether they have good LP or not.

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R9 5:12ET 5.5f T OClm 62500n2x 3 UP FM :  6 13 8 12 11 5 3          LSS 8 12 5 3

Result:  10 13 12 5.
Recap:  Again, the horse with the 3^rd lowest high PF in a field of 12 won, at 25-1 this time on turf.  The other 3 made sense, but at this point the winners were starting to get absurd and the Pick 4 was gone long ago so cut our losses after this race.

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R10 5:44ET 8.5f D OClm 62500n2x 3 UP  :  7 8 3 10 4 1     LSS 3 1

Result:  7 8 10 6
Recap:  Finally a race that made sense again, with the nonsensical 47-1 finishing at 4^th which was still better than it should have. Payouts weren’t great but we quit betting until the stakes race, where there should always be money to win.

R11 6:16ET 8.5f T MntJulp-G3 4 UP FM :  1 13 14 6 2 4      LSS 13 14 4 10 5 7

Result:  7 5 11 4
Recap:  There were so many possibilities, and although there was not much speed, late runners were dominating on dirt and turf.  And what better than the top LP plodder at 25-1, up from 8-1ML?!  I was all in for that one.  WPS paid $53, $21 and $15, times 10 for me.  Two other good plodders ran 2^nd and 3^rd, but there were too many competitors to hit a box so I didn’t get them. However, the payouts were astronomical.  For some lucky ones, Exacta $1045, Trifecta $2305, Dime super $11,681.  Like I said, I wasn’t so luck.

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Overall grade:  C-.  By far the worst grade we have delivered on a report card.  I’m tempted to give the track a grade of F since midway on, early runners couldn’t compete even if they were superior to others.  Plodders all had the right of way whether they had any late speed or not.  Grade would have been much worse if we hadn’t come up with a top LP 25-1 winner in the last race.  The Grid saved the day once again.

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As always, you can get the Grid for all the big tracks and races, including Belmont, Gulfstream, Santa Anita, Tampa, and Golden Gate right here.

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Friday, May 29 we posted predictions for every race at Santa Anita.  Recently we’ve been doing a report card for every race day predictions which are all posted before the first race of the day.  Then we give ourselves a grade.  I have to admit, we’ve been doing well on these posts.  We give the result and payouts only if we got them, in the format of $1 Exacta, 50 cent tri, dime super, and 50ct pick 4.

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R1 3:30ET 4.5f D MSW 2 YO F 50000:  7 3 4

Result:  5 3 7 4
Recap:  5 winning at 18-1 was not a shocker. Of the 3 1^st timer starters in the 7 horse field, she was equally unlikely to win as the other 2.  It made sense to key the 3 7 4 at various positions, in which case you would have got this.  In this type of race we always wheel all on top of the dime super, paid $56.

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R2 4:01ET 5.5f D Clm 25000 3 UP FM :  4 1 6 5

Result:  6 1 5 3
Recap: Getting the winner at 5-1 in a 6h field was a pleasant surprise.  Payouts weren’t great due to field size, but we got them easily.  Exacta $15, Trifecta $21, Dime $15.

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R3 4:33ET 5.5f T MSW 3 UP FM 50000:  1 7 8 4 3                LSS 3

Result:  8 7 5 1
Recap:  The 5 was top behind 7 but I just didn’t like her in a 5.5f race almost devoid of early speed The other 3 were obvious chalk so it didn’t pay much, and all we got was the Exacta for $11.

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R4 5:05ET 8f D Clm 12500n2l 3 UP FM :  5 6 4 1  LSS 3

Result:  6 5 3 1
Recap:  4 ended up scratching and a field of 5 not worth betting the exacta.  3 was our next choice as seen as LSS above so we put her at the 3 slot and got a trifecta of $35 certainly not bad for a 5h field.

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R5 5:37ET 8f T Md 62500 3 UP:  6 2 9 4 10 12        LSS 2 10

Result:  2 6 8 14
Recap:  2 was initially a LSS as seen, went down to 6-1 but still good for payouts.  8 wasn’t horrible and was tied for 3^rd in EP, but we just didn’t like him here and at 27-1 the public didn’t either. We had to settle for an Exacta of $28.5.  Oh did I mention the 50 cent Pick 4 payout of $661?! Yep.

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R6 6:09ET 5.5f D Md 25000 3 UP FM :  3 7 5 2 8  LSS 8

Result:  8 2 7 5
Recap: Another wins! But again it was down to 5-1 at post time.  Field of 7 so payouts weren’t great.  Exacta $22, Trifecta $57, Dime $39. 

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R7 6:41ET 5.5f T OClm 80000n1x 3 YO F :  1 4 3

Result:  3 4 5 1
Recap:  4 horse field was not worth betting anything. 

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R8 7:11ET 8f D OClm 40000 3 UP  :  2 1 6 3 8

Result:  1 2 3 8
Recap:  Obviously we called this one and finally another race worth betting on. Got the 1 and 2 at 5-1 each, not bad for our top 2 picks.  More boring payouts.  Exacta $36, Tri $42, Dime $26.  Oh wait, there’s more! An inexplicable Pick 4 payout of $1085?!

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Once again, the verticals saved the day.  Horizontals for the most part hardly paid anything, but winning over $1700 in the two Pick 4’s which cost an average of about $50 each made the day worthwhile.  The WPS bets on the LSS’s that won were nice, but the Pick 4’s were what made the day for sure.

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Overall Grade:  A.   Despite short fields, we gave you LSS’s that hit the board, and more importantly won, giving you some nice Pick 4 payouts that you obviously didn’t bet or else the payouts wouldn’t have been so high. 

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You can always get the Grid for every major track and race day here. Check out the options.

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Saturday, May 30.  Churchill Downs has a nice 11 race card with over 110 horses competing after morning scratches.  The card includes the featured Mint Julep G3 as the last race, with 14 ready to run including 2 alternates.  The Winning Colors has a shorter but competitive field of 8.

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Conditions in Louisville today are finally sunny with a supposed 0% chance of rain, so the track is dry and all races will remain on turf.  This type of track typically favors LP at Churchill so we will factor that in but assume it’s playing fair to start the day. 

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We made picks for every race, and there are lots of long shot specials (LSS) defined as at least 8-1 ML that have a good chance to hit the board or even win.  Get the free Grid here to follow along. Morning scratches already processed.

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For the Race 7 Winning Colors G3, I like mostly chalk for the top 4, as the speed of Mia Mischief and Break Even will be tough to beat at 6f.  But I like the chances of Sneaking Out, Take Charge Angel, or Princess Causeway to hit the board.  Plus you need 4 for your super remember.

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In the Mint Julep G3 Race 11, I like the favorite Juliet Foxtrot the best.  However, I picked two long shots 2^nd and 3^rd, but they are alternate entries so we may end up deleting them.  If so, I still have 4 more listed including 4 5 and 10 at high odds.  The race is really spread out but I’m looking for EP to do well since the race is almost devoid of speed, especially if 14 doesn’t draw in.

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Full Card Picks:

R1 1:00ET 6f D Md 75000 3 UP FM :  7 6 5 3 1      LSS 6

R2 1:30ET 8.5f D Clm 16000 4 UP FM :  3 5 1 4    6H field

R3 2:00ET 9f T MSW 3 UP FM 79000:  12 5 4 10 9 1            LSS 9 1

R4 2:32ET 6f D Clm 20000 3 YO  :  4 6 5 2 1           LSS 6

R5 3:04ET 6f D Md 20000 3 UP  :  6 7 4 11 12 10 1               LSS 7 11 10 1

R6 3:36ET 9f T Alw 81000n1x 3 YO  :  5 10 11 2    LSS 4 3 1 7

R7 4:08ET 6f D WnngClrs-G3 4 UP FM :  8 2 1 7 6 3            LSS 1 6 3

R8 4:40ET 8.5f D MSW 3 UP  79000:  8 9 3 7 1 10                LSS 8 3 1 10

R9 5:12ET 5.5f T OClm 62500n2x 3 UP FM :  6 13 8 12 11 5 3          LSS 8 12 5 3

R10 5:44ET 8.5f D OClm 62500n2x 3 UP  :  7 8 3 10 4 1     LSS 3 1

R11 6:16ET 8.5f T MntJulp-G3 4 UP FM :  1 13 14 6 2 4      LSS 13 14 4 10 5

As always, you can get the Grid for all the big tracks and races, such as Belmont, Gulfstream, Santa Anita, Tampa, and Golden Gate right here.

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Friday, May 29.  While eastern tracks are busy taking races off turf with huge fields of 20 that they have to cut down to 12 every day, it remains sunny at Santa Anita where they have much shorter but still competitive fields.  There’s a Pick 6 Jackpot carryover of $487k today.

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A Precap, which is a coin I termed right here on this site, gives you an outlook on the day and picks for every race, including Long Shot Specials denoted by LSS. Weather today is sunny with track fast and firm.  Normally on a track this fast at SA, LP does very well.  First get the Grid below to follow along.

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R1 3:30ET 4.5f D MSW 2 YO F 50000:  7 3 4 / ?

R2 4:01ET 5.5f D Clm 25000 3 UP FM :  4 1 6 5

R3 4:33ET 5.5f T MSW 3 UP FM 50000:  1 7 8 4 3                LSS 3

R4 5:05ET 8f D Clm 12500n2l 3 UP FM :  5 6 4 1  LSS 3

R5 5:37ET 8f T Md 62500 3 UP  :  6 2 9 4 10 12     LSS 2 10

R6 6:09ET 5.5f D Md 25000 3 UP FM :  3 7 5 2 8  LSS 8

R7 6:41ET 5.5f T OClm 80000n1x 3 YO F :  1 4 3

R8 7:11ET 8f D OClm 40000 3 UP  :  2 1 6 3 8

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Looking back, this is probably the last time we’ll do Santa Anita on a weekday.  The fields are horribly short in comparison to the options at big eastern tracks.  As usual, you get the Grid for all the big tracks here.

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Thursday, May 28, 2020.  Churchill Downs was today’s free Precap track with picks provided for every race top down.  Lately we’ve been trying to issue a report card for every day we issue picks so the public can keep track of how we’re doing, and to show how the Grid is used in handicapping.

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In this format, we copy and paste the initial race prediction lines from the Precap article, complete with long shot specials.  Then we add the result and a recap for each race. Payouts are given if we got them based on the picks, for $2 Exacta, 50 cent Trifecta, and Dime Super.

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R1 1:00ET 8.5f D Clm 50000n2l 3 UP:  3 6 8 5 2    LSS 5

Result:  2 8 6 3
Recap:  Managed to get the top 5 order almost completely backwards but at least we got it.  LP made strong showing and good box results. Exacta $90, Tri $66, Dime super $24.

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R2 1:30ET 5f D MSW 2 YO F 79000:  11 3 10 6 2 1              LSS 10 2 1

Result:  3 1 7 6 11
Recap:  3 was 2-5 fav, nothing you can do about that. Helps to get a LSS on the board in 2^nd at 50-1, paying $17.2 and $11.2.  Exacta $73 not bad for a prohibitive fav winning.

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R3 2:00ET 8.5f D Clm 10000n2l 3 UP FM:  4 7 5 10 6 9       LSS 5 10 6

Result:  6 1 7 9 4
Recap:  It’s fun to claim a LSS winner looking at the 12-1 ML, but not as much fun when it goes off at <4-1.  I didn’t like the 1 in this race but it was top LP in the Grid so kind of dumb to leave it out in a route.  Winner paid $9.6, $5.4, and $4.2.  Oh well at least we stayed alive in vertical action.

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R4 2:32ET 8.5f D Md 10000 3 UP:  8 12 13 9 6 7   LSS 9 6 7

Result: 6 12 7 8 1
Recap:  Finally we got a legit top 6 box, led by top LSS pick at 14-1, followed by even money at 2^nd and another LSS at 9-1 and our top pick which continues to finish 4^th or 5^th.  Winner paid $31.2, $11, $6.4.  It was an open 12 horse field so we did box all 6.  Exacta $76, Tri $163, Dime $108. 

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R5 3:04ET 8f D OClm 10000 4 UP FM:  1 12 6 8 9 4             LSS 8 9 4

Result:  12 1 6 4 9.
Recap:  Got the order a little closer this time but hence chalkier at the top.  6 hitting board at 9-1 would have been a legit LSS call but was only 6-1 ML and it has to be 8-1 or greater.  LSS 4 getting in at 25-1 was also cool for the super.  Keyed 12 and 1, the top 2 Power and LP.  Exacta $16, Tri $16, Dime $8.  Ugh. But wait, did we mention a 50 cent pick 4 payout of $445?  Nice.  That’s why we play the game.

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R6 3:36ET 8.5f T Clm 40000 4 UP:  6 5 7 11 3 1     LSS 7

Result:  5 11 2 1 4
Recap:  5 and 11 up to 7-1 from the ML helped as bettors went heavy on 6.  Pesky 2 blew up the tri and super, and no true LSS.  Still, Exacta of $142 not bad.

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R7 4:08ET 7f D Clm 20000n2l 3 UP FM: 3 10 7 2 4 8            LSS  (7) 2 4

Result:  10 2 8 7 5
Recap:  chalky top 3 with 7 bringing up the rear of the super for 11-1 after a 6-1ML making it a questionable LSS pick.  Easy enough but payouts miniscule.  Exacta $21, Tri $26, Dime $27. 

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R8 4:40ET 8.5f D Alw 81000n1x 3 UP:  10 3 6 2 9 5 1           LSS*:  10 3 6 2

Result:  9 6 4 8 1.
Recap:  the 5-2 fav 10 finishing off the board helped payouts in a wide open race.  4 wasn’t horrible but there’s a reason it was 40-1, not a lot to like. LSS 6 would up 5-1 so not an LSS at post.  Exacta $45.

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R9 5:12ET 5f T Alw 88000nc 3 UP FM:  2 8 6 1 4 9                LSS:  6* 4 12

Result:  5 6 7 2
Recap:  Race was wide open which is when you see a 18-1 winner by a trainer shaded by some of the others in here. Saving grace was the 6, with a * as super LSS at 30-1 ML, down to 12-1 at post but still a good bet.   Thanks to top 3 public choices 8 2 and 1 not doing so well, the payouts were great if you got them.  6 paid $12.8 and $7.8.

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R10 5:44ET 8.5f D Md 30000 3 UP:  12 4 9 10 5 14 6           LSS*:  4 9 10 6

Result:  4 2 3 9
Recap:  Once again the LSS came down from 10-1 to be the actual betting favorite at 3-1, meaning someone must have been putting a lot of money on my picks.  And I didn’t like the 2 or 3 for this race because there was no speed for the plodders to run at.  Can’t win them all.

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So the end of the day fizzled out just like that, but you can see in the early half of the day we were crushing it.  After the early pick 4 payout it was mostly downhill.  Race 9 blew up the late pick 4 and any remaining chance to win anything significant.  Overall Grade:  B- for not getting much done late.

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As always, you can get the Grid for every big track and race day in North America here, and make great picks yourself!

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Thursday May 28.  Expert picks were given for Tampa Bay Downs Wednesday May 27 using the Grid as the sole reference.  Let’s see how they did. Payouts given as applicable for $1 exacta, 50 cent trifecta, Dime superfecta. Picks are copied and pasted from Wednesday’s Precap article.

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R1 1:00ET 8.18f D Md 16000 3 UP FM:  5 4 2 3.  V chalky don’t bet it.  Start of Pick 5

Result:  3 2 5 4
Recap:  Payouts ended up being decent because 3 went up to 9-1 from 4-1ML somehow, even tho it had the Grid top LP rating.  Exacta $56, Trifecta $115, Dime super $51.

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R2 1:30ET 8.18f D Clm 5000n1y 4 UP FM:  7 6 8 3 2 1        LSS 8 3   Start of early Pick 4

Result:  3 2 7 1
Recap:  First long shot special of the day won at 20-1! Top LP in Grid again.  Rest of super also from top 6 picks.  WPS $42 $16 $7, Exacta $133, Tri $330, Dime $205.

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R3 2:00ET 8f T Clm 25000n2l 3 UP:  7 8 5 4            LSS 3 10 1

Result:  7 10 8 5
Recap:  Favorite/winner was top pick at 8-5.  2^nd place LSS at 7-1, easy pickins again. Ex $17, Tri $50, Dime $31.

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R4 2:30ET 8.18f D Md 10000 3 UP:  2 8 3                LSS 1 10 9             Ultimate 6 starts

Result:  2 3 4 8
Recap:  V chalky except for the 4 busting in at 27-1 with not much to like but 4^th LP.  Ex $5, Tri $25

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R5 3:00ET 8f T OClm 75000n1x 3 YO F:  3 1 4 5 8                LSS 4 8                   Late Pick 5 begins

Result:  5 4 1 3
Recap:  Ended up quite chalky as the 4 went down to 7-2.  Ex $26, Tri $38, Dime $14.  50 cent Pick 4 $436!!

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R6 3:30ET 8.18f D Clm 8000n3l 3 UP:  8 10 3 6 7 9               LSS 7 9                   Late Pick 4 begins

Result:  3 6 9 4
Recap:  Top 2 picks were also top 2 public choices, finishing off the board for some good payouts including LSS 9 hitting the board at 28-1 for a $9 show pay.  Once again, you guessed it, top LP in the Grid.  Ex $38, Tri $206.  Dime would pay $656 if you wheeled all at bottom.

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R7 4:00ET 8f T OClm 32000n2x 4 UP:  7 5 8 10 13 3 6 4      LSS 10 3                Last Pick 3 of day

Result:  8 5 6 3
Recap:  Very competitive wide open race with odds spread out which is why we listed like 8 of them. Speed took the top 2 slots as expected then top LP made 3^rd.  We got $42 exacta.  If you were clever enough to put it together correctly, Tri $125 and Dime $95. 

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R8 4:30ET 5.5f D Clm 8000n2l 3 UP FM:  13 3 6 8 12 9       LSS         9 11

Result:  12 6 13 4
Recap:  Winner 6-1 top EP in a sprint.  6 and 13 virtual co-favs.  Ex $23, Tri $51.

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R9 5:00ET 8f T MSW 3 YO F 20000:  2 6 4 9 13 10               LSS 10

Result:  2 6 9 10
Recap:  V Chalky since 10 couldn’t quite get up for 3^rd at 16-1.  But guess what? Another Pick 4 for $409!  Ex 12, Tri 16, Dime 19.  So that’s what you can do with the Grid!

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As a bonus, to further overanalyze this, Let’s do some basic ROI calcs.  16 LSS’s were listed for the 9 races.  Let’s say you bet $2WPS on each of them, that’s a $96 investment on the day.  In that case, you got $92 back.  But you also included the top LSS in your pick 4 so you won $436 on the early one and $409 on the late Pick 4.  So even if you spent more than $100 on those, which normally you would spend about $50 each, you still made out well. 

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In addition, lots of exactas and trifectas were racked up.  Let’s say you decided to just box the top 6 picks in an exacta, trifecta, and dime super for every race.  This is not really recommended to do in each race, but you did it anyway. So you spent $96 on each race for $864 total.  Ouch.  In this case you made $1503 back.  But chances are you didn’t go 6 deep in the shorter fields of 7 or 8, so you wouldn’t have spent $864 but more like $500 to get the same payout.  That’s a good ROI.

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So according to the above scenarios and you remembered to included the winning LSS in your Pick 4, then you profited by $1380, or even more if you were able to construe some of the exotics that we didn’t quite put together.

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As usual, you can get the Grid for every major track and race here.

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Thursday, May 28, 2020.  Churchill Downs continues to roll along in its spring meet with large competitive fields and good handles.  Today’s card has over 100 horses racing after morning scratches in 10 races. 

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TRACK: Fast   TURF: Firm (Lane 2, 15 ft.)

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. South wind 5 to 9 mph.

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List of the races with predicted finishing order and long shots specials. Grab the Grid here free to follow along.

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R1 1:00ET 8.5f D Clm 50000n2l 3 UP:  3 6 8 5 2    LSS 5

R2 1:30ET 5f D MSW 2 YO F 79000:  11 3 10 6 1 1              LSS 10 2 1

R3 2:00ET 8.5f D Clm 10000n2l 3 UP FM:  4 7 5 10 6 9       LSS 5 10 6

R4 2:32ET 8.5f D Md 10000 3 UP:  8 12 13 9 6 7   LSS 9 6 7

R5 3:04ET 8f D OClm 10000 4 UP FM:  1 12 6 8 9 4             LSS 8 9 4

R6 3:36ET 8.5f T Clm 40000 4 UP:  6 5 7 11 3 1     LSS 7

R7 4:08ET 7f D Clm 20000n2l 3 UP FM: 3 10 7 2 4 8            LSS  (7) 2 4

R8 4:40ET 8.5f D Alw 81000n1x 3 UP:  10 3 6 2 9 5 1           LSS*:  10 3 6 2

R9 5:12ET 5f T Alw 88000nc 3 UP FM:  2 8 6 1 4 9                LSS:  6* 4 12

R10 5:44ET 8.5f D Md 30000 3 UP 

:  12 4 9 10 5 14 6               LSS*:  4 9 10 6

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You can see there are plenty of long shots specials to go around and lots of great betting races today. Good luck.

.To get the Grid for all major tracks and races, check it out here.