Weekend Winners Club

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Friday, April 8, 2022.  Keeneland launches its short but sweet spring meet with a blast this weekend, starting today with 6 3yo races highlighted by the Ashland G1 on dirt and Transylvania G3 on turf, both for 3yo fillies.  The Lafayette $400k is the only race for 3yo males / open.

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On Saturday, a slew of 5 graded stakes races will ensue, featuring the Toyota Blue Grass G1, a key Kentucky Derby championship series race.  The top 2 finishers and possibly others, will stamp their ticket to Run for the Roses.

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Today, racing begins at 1PM ET with a MSW for unraced 2yos. There are 10 races on the card with over 100 horses slated to run, after morning scratches.  Stakes racing will begin at 4:12PM with the Lafayette stakes.  Download today’s free Grid here, no questions asked.

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R7 4:12ET 7f D LafayetteB400k 3 YO 

This race has a nice competitive field of 12

8 My Prankster is set as the 2-1 ML favorite for Todd Pletcher

2 Money Supply 9-5 coached by Chad Brown will have something to say in his 2^nd career race

12 Tejano Twist 7-2 will be closing late for a piece of the action

3 Old Homestead 20-1 would like to go 3 for 3 with another frontrunning victory

10 Magnolia Midnight and 1 Osbourne  and 6 American Xperiment could get a piece of the action

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R8 4:44ET 8.5f T Trnylvna-G3 3 YO 

This short field of 6 is not worth betting on, but the 4 virtual co-favorites should put on a great show.

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R9 5:16ET 8.5f D Ashland-G1 3 YO F

The field of 8 provides some more competitive nature but it appears to be a 5 filly race at best.

4 Nest 2-1 has won two stakes in a row for Todd including a 9f G2

6 Happy Soul 5-2 has won 3 in a row including 2 stakes for Wesley Ward, now first time 2 turns

3 Insterstatedaydream 5-2 was runner up in a G2 last year, won her debut easily this year

2 Awake at Midnyte 4-1 faltered in the G2 last out but showed tremendous speed at 1 turn

7 Cocktail Moments 12-1 was 3^rd in 2 stakes in a row last while closing quite well

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OK that’s it for now. You got the Grid so make the rest of the picks on your own.

You can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races right here, check out the options.

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Good luck!

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The April 2022 Thoroughbred stakes schedule for the United States of America, its top hat Canada, and the Japan Racing Association has been updated. Keeneland wins this month with 19 stakes races, most of which are graded, highlighted by the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

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April 2022 Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule for USA, Canada, Japan

Race	Track	Date	Purse	Age/Sex	Dist.	Surface	Fee, Due Date
Excelsior S	Aqu	02-Apr	$150k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 19.
Carolina Cup	Cam	02-Apr	$50k g	4&up R	17f	Turf	Closed on Mar 21.
Pepsi S	Fon	02-Apr	$15k a	3yo f	6f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 26.
Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa (G1)	GP	02-Apr	$1,000k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 20.
Cutler Bay S	GP	02-Apr	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 20.
Ghostzapper S (G3)	GP	02-Apr	$100k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 20.
Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2)	GP	02-Apr	$250k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 20.
Kitten's Joy Appleton S (G3T)	GP	02-Apr	$100k g	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 20.
Orchid S (G3T)	GP	02-Apr	$150k g	4&up f/m	12f	Turf	Closed on Mar 20.
Pan American S (G2T)	GP	02-Apr	$200k g	4&up	12f	Turf	Closed on Mar 20.
Sand Springs S Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance	GP	02-Apr	$100k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 20.
Sanibel Island	GP	02-Apr	$100k g	3yo f	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 20.
Sir Shackleton S	GP	02-Apr	$100k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 20.
Lord Derby Challenge Trophy (G3T)	JRA	02-Apr	$838k a	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 8.
Arkansas Derby (G1)	OP	02-Apr	$1,250k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 18.
Carousel	OP	02-Apr	$200k g	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 18.
Fantasy S (G3)	OP	02-Apr	$600k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 18.
Oaklawn Mile (G3)	OP	02-Apr	$400k g	4&up	8f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 18.
Temperence Hill S	OP	02-Apr	$150k g	4&up	12f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 18.
Singletary S	SA	02-Apr	$100k g	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 24.
Sunland Park H	Sun	02-Apr	$100k g	3&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 25.
Animal Kingdom S	TP	02-Apr	#$200k g	3yo	6f	AW	Closed on Mar 19.
Bourbonette Oaks	TP	02-Apr	#$250k g	3yo f	8.5f	AW	Closed on Mar 19.
Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3)	TP	02-Apr	#$600k g	3yo	9f	AW	Closed on Mar 19.
Latonia S	TP	02-Apr	#$200k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	AW	Closed on Mar 19.
Rushaway S	TP	02-Apr	#$200k g	3yo	8.5f	AW	Closed on Mar 19.
TwinSpires Kentucky Cup Classic	TP	02-Apr	#$250k g	4&up	9f	AW	Closed on Mar 19.
Osaka Hai (G1T)	JRA	03-Apr	$4,115k a	4&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Feb 8.
Central Bank Ashland S (G1)	Kee	08-Apr	#$600k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Kentucky Utilities Transylvania S (G3T)	Kee	08-Apr	#$400k g	3yo	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 23.
Lafayette S	Kee	08-Apr	#$400k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 23.
Bay Shore S (G3)	Aqu	09-Apr	$200k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 26.
Carter H (G1)	Aqu	09-Apr	$300k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 26.
Danger's Hour S	Aqu	09-Apr	$100k g	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 26.
Distaff H (G3)	Aqu	09-Apr	$150k g	4&up f/m	7f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 26.
Gazelle S (G3)	Aqu	09-Apr	$250k g	3yo f	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 26.
Wood Memorial Presented by Resorts World Casino (G2)	Aqu	09-Apr	$750k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 26.
Dowd Mile S	Fon	09-Apr	$20k a	3&up	8f	Dirt	$0/Apr 2
Hanshin Himba S (G2T)	JRA	09-Apr	$1,135k a	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 22.
New Zealand Trophy (G2T)	JRA	09-Apr	$1,120k a	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 22.
Appalachian S Presented by Japan Racing Association (G2T)	Kee	09-Apr	#$400k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 23.
Commonwealth S (G3)	Kee	09-Apr	#$300k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 23.
Madison S (G1)	Kee	09-Apr	#$500k g	4&up f/m	7f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 23.
Shakertown S (G2T)	Kee	09-Apr	#$350k g	3&up	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 23.
Toyota Blue Grass S (G1)	Kee	09-Apr	#$1,000k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Howard B. Noonan S	MVR	09-Apr	$75k g	3yo S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 30.
Rainbow Miss S	OP	09-Apr	$150k g	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 25.
Rainbow S	OP	09-Apr	$150k g	3yo S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 25.
Echo Eddie S	SA	09-Apr	$150k g	3yo S	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 31.
Evening Jewel S	SA	09-Apr	$150k g	3yo f S	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 31.
Monrovia S (G2T)	SA	09-Apr	$200k g	4&up f/m	abt 6.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 31.
Providencia S (G3T)	SA	09-Apr	$100k g	3yo f	9f	Turf	Closed on Mar 31.
Royal Heroine S (G2T)	SA	09-Apr	$200k g	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 31.
Runhappy Santa Anita Derby (G1)	SA	09-Apr	$750k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 31.
Santa Anita Oaks (G2)	SA	09-Apr	$400k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 31.
Top Flight Invitational	Aqu	10-Apr	$100k g	4&up f/m	9f	Dirt	Not Available
Oka Sho (Japanese One Thousand Guineas) (G1T)	JRA	10-Apr	$2,684k a	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 22.
Beaumont Presented by Keeneland Select (G3)	Kee	10-Apr	#$400k g	3yo f	abt 7f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 23.
Palisades S	Kee	10-Apr	#$200k g	3yo	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 23.
John Shear Mile S	SA	10-Apr	$75k a	4&up	8f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 31.
Siren Lure S	SA	10-Apr	$75k a	3&up	6.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 31.
Miranda Diane S	WRD	11-Apr	$55k g	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 30.
TRAO Classic Sprint S	WRD	12-Apr	$55k g	3&up S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 31.
Acadiana S	EvD	15-Apr	$60k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 1.
Maker's Mark Mile (G1T)	Kee	15-Apr	#$600k g	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 30.
TVG Limestone S	Kee	15-Apr	#$200k g	3yo f	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 30.
Wildcat S	TuP	15-Apr	$60k g	3&up	11f	Turf	Not Available
Plenty of Grace S	Aqu	16-Apr	$100k g	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	$100/Apr 2
Lafayette S	EvD	16-Apr	$60k g	3yo	6f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 1.
Runza S	Fon	16-Apr	$15k a	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr 9
Arlington Cup (G3T)	JRA	16-Apr	$823k a	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 22.
Giant's Causeway S	Kee	16-Apr	#$200k g	3&up f/m	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 30.
Jenny Wiley S (G1T)	Kee	16-Apr	#$500k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 30.
Stonestreet Lexington S (G3)	Kee	16-Apr	#$400k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 30.
Federico Tesio S	Lrl	16-Apr	$125k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	$0/Apr 2
Frank Y. Whiteley S	Lrl	16-Apr	$100k g	3&up	7f	Dirt	$0/Apr 2
Heavenly Cause S	Lrl	16-Apr	$100k g	3&up f/m	8f	Dirt	$0/Apr 2
Weber City Miss S	Lrl	16-Apr	$125k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Apr 2
My Lady's Manor Timber S	Mon	16-Apr	$50k g	5&up	24f	Turf	$100/Apr 4
Cheryl C. White Memorial S	MVR	16-Apr	$75k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr 4
Count Fleet Sprint H (G3)	OP	16-Apr	$500k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 1.
Long Branch S	WO	16-Apr	$100k g	4&up f/m	5.5f	AW	$0/Apr 6
Antares S (G3)	JRA	17-Apr	$780k a	4&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 22.
Satsuki Sho (Japanese Two Thousand Guineas) (G1T)	JRA	17-Apr	$3,096k a	3yo	10f	Turf	Closed on Feb 22.
Thorncliffe S	WO	17-Apr	$100k g	4&up	5.5f	AW	$0/Apr 6
Baird Doubledogdare S (G3)	Kee	22-Apr	#$300k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	$100/Apr 6
Dr. O.G. Fischer Memorial S	SRP	22-Apr	$50k g	3&up f/m	7f	Dirt	$200/May 3
Inaugural S	SRP	22-Apr	$75k g	3&up	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 1.
SunRay Park & Casino	SRP	22-Apr	$50k g	3&up	8f	Dirt	$200/May 3
Ann Owens Distaff S	TuP	22-Apr	$60k g	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Dwight D. Patterson S	TuP	22-Apr	$60k g	3&up S	8.5f	Turf	Not Available
Gene Fleming Breeders' Derby	TuP	22-Apr	$60k g	3yo S	8.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Joanne Dye Breeders' Oaks	TuP	22-Apr	$60k a	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Lyman and Bradley Rollins S	TuP	22-Apr	$60k g	3&up S	6f	Dirt	Not Available
New York Stallion S (Times Square Div.)	Aqu	23-Apr	$200k g	3yo R	6.5f	Dirt	$200/Apr 9
Woodhaven S	Aqu	23-Apr	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	Turf	$100/Apr 9
Grand National Timber	But	23-Apr	$30k g	5&up	26f	Turf	$100/Apr 11
Confucius Say S	CT	23-Apr	$75k g	3&up S	7f	Dirt	$50/Apr 13
Original Gold S	CT	23-Apr	$75k g	3&up f/m S	7f	Dirt	$50/Apr 13
Baxter S	Fon	23-Apr	$15k a	3yo	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr 15
Fukushima Himba S (G3T)	JRA	23-Apr	$823k a	4&up f/m	9f	Turf	Closed on Mar 8.
Ben Ali S (G3)	Kee	23-Apr	#$300k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	$100/Apr 6
Elkhorn S (G2T)	Kee	23-Apr	#$350k g	4&up	12f	Turf	$100/Apr 6
Dahlia S	Lrl	23-Apr	$100k g	3&up f/m	8f	Turf	$0/Apr 9
Henry S. Clark S	Lrl	23-Apr	$100k g	3&up	8f	Turf	$0/Apr 9
King T. Leatherbury S	Lrl	23-Apr	$100k g	3&up	5.5f	Turf	$0/Apr 9
Native Dancer S	Lrl	23-Apr	$100k g	3&up	9f	Dirt	$0/Apr 9
Primonetta S	Lrl	23-Apr	$100k g	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr 9
Middleburg Hunt Cup	Mid	23-Apr	$25k g	5&up	26f	Turf	$100/Apr 11
Temple Gwathmey Steeplechase (G2T)	Mid	23-Apr	$75k g	4&up	20f	Turf	$250/Apr 11
Apple Blossom H (G1)	OP	23-Apr	$1,000k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	$100/Apr 8
Oaklawn H (G2)	OP	23-Apr	$1,000k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	$100/Apr 8
Oaklawn S	OP	23-Apr	$150k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	$0/Apr 8
Russell & Helen Foutz Distaff	SRP	23-Apr	$100k g	3&up f/m S	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 1.
Memories of Silver S	Aqu	24-Apr	$100k g	3yo f	8.5f	Turf	$100/Apr 9
New York Stallion S (Park Avenue Div.)	Aqu	24-Apr	$200k g	3yo f R	6.5f	Dirt	$200/Apr 9
Fonner Park Special S	Fon	24-Apr	$20k a	3yo c/g S	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr 15
Fonner Park Special S	Fon	24-Apr	$20k a	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr 15
Flora S (G2T)	JRA	24-Apr	$1,072k a	3yo f	10f	Turf	Closed on Mar 8.
Yomiuri Milers Cup (G2T)	JRA	24-Apr	$1,221k a	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 8.
Page McKenney H	PRX	25-Apr	$100k g	3&up S	7f	Dirt	$100/Apr 4
Unique Bella S	PRX	25-Apr	$100k g	3&up f/m S	7f	Dirt	$100/Apr 4
Bluebonnet S	LS	28-Apr	$75k a	3&up f/m S	6.5f	Dirt	$0/Apr 18
Dr. T.F. Classen Memorial S	Tdn	28-Apr	$75k g	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	$50/Apr 18
Affirmed Success S	Bel	29-Apr	$100k g	4&up S	6f	Dirt	$100/Apr 16
Bewitch S (G3T)	Kee	29-Apr	#$300k g	4&up f/m	12f	Turf	$100/Apr 13
Elusive Quality S	Bel	30-Apr	$100k g	4&up	7f	Turf	$100/Apr 16
Roxelana Overnight S	CD	30-Apr	#$160k a	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr 16
Bosselman Pump and Pantry/Gus Fonner S	Fon	30-Apr	$75k a	3&up	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Apr 13
California Derby	GG	30-Apr	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	AW	$50/Apr 21
California Oaks	GG	30-Apr	$75k g	3yo f	8.5f	AW	$50/Apr 21
Camilla Urso	GG	30-Apr	$75k g	3&up f/m	5f	Turf	$50/Apr 21
Golden Poppy	GG	30-Apr	$75k g	3&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	$50/Apr 21
Lost in the Fog	GG	30-Apr	$75k g	3&up	6f	AW	$50/Apr 21
San Francisco Mile (G3T)	GG	30-Apr	$250k g	3&up	8f	Turf	$50/Apr 21
Maryland Hunt Cup Timber	Gln	30-Apr	$100k g	5&up	32f	Turf	Closed on Mar 14.
Aoba Sho (G2T)	JRA	30-Apr	$1,120k a	3yo	12f	Turf	Closed on Mar 8.
Bachelor S	OP	30-Apr	$150k g	3yo	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr 15
Californian S (G2)	SA	30-Apr	$200k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	$100/Apr 21
Charles Whittingham S (G2T)	SA	30-Apr	$225k g	3&up	10f	Turf	$100/Apr 21
Kona Gold S (G3)	SA	30-Apr	$100k g	3&up	6.5f	Dirt	$100/Apr 21
Santa Margarita S (G2)	SA	30-Apr	$200k g	4&up f/m	9f	Dirt	$100/Apr 21
Star Shoot S	WO	30-Apr	$125k g	3yo f	6f	AW	$125/Apr 13

The above stakes schedule is sortable and filterable by any column.

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April 2, 2022. Gulfstream Park has its biggest race day of the year with 10 stakes races, 6 graded, highlighted by the Grade 1 $1M Curlin Florida Derby featuring 11 top east coast three year olds.  Oaklawn Park will run 5 stakes races, 3 graded including the G1 $1.25 Arkansas Derby with 9 of the top 3yos in the southeast.

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Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa (G1)	GP
Cutler Bay S	GP
Ghostzapper S (G3)	GP
Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2)	GP
Kitten’s Joy Appleton S (G3T)	GP
Orchid S (G3T)	GP
Pan American S (G2T)	GP
Sand Springs S Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance	GP
Sanibel Island	GP
Sir Shackleton S	GP
Arkansas Derby (G1)	OP
Carousel	OP
Fantasy S (G3)	OP
Oaklawn Mile (G3)	OP
Temperence Hill S	OP

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It’s a very exciting day for the Road to the Roses, as both of these races offer Kentucky Derby points of 100-40-20-10 to the top 4 finishers, basically guaranteeing a run for the roses to the top two in each race, with 3^rd and 4^th getting a chance if they gain some points in other races.

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Oh I almost forgot, Turfway Park will run the Jeff Ruby Steaks G3. Yes it’s spelled that way for its sponsor, Jeff Ruby’s which is an excellent steakhouse that you should visit whenever in the area. The race is only worth 20 points to the winner but the $600k purse is nothing to scoff at.

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The weather at Gulfstream Park is warm and partly cloudy with the possibility of a little rain developing late in the day, which is when the Derby will be run. To add excitement, Gulfstream has a Jackpot Pick 6 carryover of 483k. Oaklawn weather will be in the 60s with no chance of rain. 

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For the sake of brevity, we won’t break down all 15 stakes races, much less 27 races on both cards.  But we shall break down both of the Derbies and provide some good long shot specials to use on a few other races.  Today’s Gulfstream Grid is free so download here to follow along. Morning scratches out.

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R14 6:38ET 9f D FlaDerby-G1 3 YO 

THE CHALK:  There are 4 current virtual favorites here, the only 4 with single digit morning lines.

2 Classic Causeway 7-2 comes off two front running wins in the Tampa Derby G2 and Sam Davis G3, after showing good form last year with two ITM graded stakes efforts. Tops in Power and EP in the Grid

3 Simplification 5-2 has the highest PF overall in his maiden win at GP and last out had a great come from behind Fountain of Youth G2 win after finishing 2^nd to White Abarrio in the Holy Bull G3. Virtual tie for top power.

6 Charge It 7-2 has a total of two races under his belt, breaking his maiden last out after losing by a neck.  But both races were at a mile this and his PF’s are comparable to tops in the field. Plus, Pletcher.

7 White Abarrio 3-1 won the Holy Bull G3 in his only race this year, drawing away from Simplification.  He showed promise last year breaking maiden first out at GP and 3^rd in a G2 at CD. Just behind top 3 in power.

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So you can just box the top 4 and get a super low paying trifecta, right? That’s not a great idea, but in fact, seldom happens in this race anyway.  Normally, a long shot with good speed finishes 2^nd to break that up.  Let’s look at the top candidates.

8 Cajun’s Magic 30-1 has the highest PF at over a mile in this field, and is tied for high EP. The high PF was achieved in a 400k stakes, one of 2 state restricted races in which he finished 2^nd to Octane.  Last out he faded to 5^th in the Holy Bull, but it was his first race since September.

5 Pappacap 10-1 isn’t a super LSS but you can’t discount a horse that was 2^nd in the BC Juvenile and 3^rd in the Lecomte, despite his horrific fade to 8^th in the Risen Star last out.  But he may end up single digits.

1 Strike Hard 20-1 doesn’t have the greatest PF’s, but is a good come from behind runner.  Unfortunately starting 11 lengths behind in the Sam Davis last out didn’t give him a chance, but he got a strong 2nd to Simplification in a stakes race before that.

9 O Captain 20-1 broke his maiden first out by 9 lengths at GP.  In his first trip over a mile, he went from 11^th to 3^rd in the FOY G2 last month.

10 Clapton 30-1 will be discounted because he finished a distant 5^th in his only route race, to Cajun’s Magic in the 400k FSNR.  But he has steadily improved and could be ready for 2 turns again. He can run from on or off the pace.

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So you can see there are plenty of options to choose from here.  I expect that at least 2 and probably 3 of the favorites will be part of the superfecta, but one of the above long shots will likely break up the chalk fest.  My top pick is Cajun’s Magic which at 30-1 is a super long shot special.

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Scattered long shot specials:

Race 7:  6 at 30-1, 8 at 12-1

Race 8:  any filly that hasn’t raced yet.

Race 9:  2 at 12-1.

Race 10:  4 at 10-1, 6 at 12-1, 7 at 10-1

Race 11:  4 at 12-1

Race 12:  1 at 12-1, 4 at 12-1

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The Arkansas Derby field of 9 has a lot of parity and possibilities, with the favorites not nearly as clear cut as the Florida Derby.  Let’s take a look.

The chalk:

6 Secret Oath 5-2 is the actual morning line favorite coming off a pair of 7 length stakes victories and an 8 length $120k ALW win before that. The last win was in the Honeybee G3, which means, yes she’s a filly on fire for Wayne Lukas, whose latest great accomplishment was the great filly Azeri.

4 Doppelganger 3-1 hasn’t won this year since breaking maiden last year. Last out he got a semi-distant 2^nd to Forbidden Kingdom in the San Felipe G2.  Since then he’s been transferred from Baffert to Tim Yakteen as we predicted, in order to actually achieve Kentucky Derby points this month.

9 We The People won both his career races this year by 5 lengths, and no stakes racing so far, but his PF’s are very competitive with the field.

Next up:

5 Un Ojo 6-1 had a couple 2^nd place stakes runs in NY and old one-eye wasted no time in his trip back south in Courville’s barn by winning the Rebel G2 last out.  Normally that winner is favored here.

3 Barber Road 8-1 had a string of close 2^nd place stakes finishes before an even closer 3^rd last out, coming up a half length short to Un Ojo in the Rebel.  His closing moves will improve at 9f especially if the pace gets hot.

8 Cyberknife 8-1 faded badly in his only stakes race but has been excellent in his other 4.

1 Kavod 15-1 has a string of 3 stakes races in which he faded to 4^th, which he hopes to do again for 10 more Derby points.

7 Ben Diesel 15-1 has been up and down for no apparent reason and could run big

2 Chasing Time 12-1 didn’t do great in the Rebel but is usually competitive.

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So there’s the entire field for you.  Of them, the top 5 are the only horses with real stakes cred, except for We The People who only has speed figure credentials.  It’s still kind of wide open, but the great late running of Barber Road and Secret Oath will be tough to beat.

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Good luck!

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You can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races right here so check out the options.

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March 2022

. The updated thoroughbred stakes racing schedule for North America and the JRA is provided here. Aqueduct seems to be the epicenter of American racing this month.

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March 2022 Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan

Race	Track	Date	Purse	Age/Sex	Dist.	Surface	Fee, Due Date
Owner Appreciation Distaff	DeD	03-04-22	$75k g	4&up f/m R	7.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 17.
Cactus Flower S	TuP	03-04-22	$30k g	4&up f/m	6.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Cactus Wren S	TuP	03-04-22	$30k g	4&up c/g	6.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Gotham S (G3)	Aqu	03-05-22	$300k g	3yo	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Busher Invitational	Aqu	03-05-22	$250k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	Not Available
Tom Fool H (G3)	Aqu	03-05-22	$200k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Heavenly Prize Invitational	Aqu	03-05-22	$125k g	4&up f/m	8f	Dirt	Not Available
Owner Appreciation Cup	DeD	03-05-22	$75k g	4&up R	7.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 17.
Black Gold S	FG	03-05-22	$75k g	3yo	abt 8.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 19.
Edward J. Johnston Memorial S	FG	03-05-22	$60k g	4&up	abt 8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 19.
Red Camelia S	FG	03-05-22	$60k g	4&up f/m S	abt 8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 19.
Bold Accent S	Fon	03-05-22	$15k a	3&up f/m	4f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 26.
Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S (G2)	GP	03-05-22	$400k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 20.
Davona Dale S (G2)	GP	03-05-22	$200k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 20.
Mac Diarmida S (G2T)	GP	03-05-22	$200k g	4&up	11f	Turf	Closed on Feb 20.
WinStar Gulfstream Park Mile (G2)	GP	03-05-22	$200k g	4&up	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 20.
Canadian Turf S (G3T)	GP	03-05-22	$150k g	4&up	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 20.
Honey Fox S (G3T)	GP	03-05-22	$150k g	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 20.
The Very One S (G3T)	GP	03-05-22	$150k g	4&up f/m	11f	Turf	Closed on Feb 20.
Herecomesthebride S (G3T)	GP	03-05-22	$125k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 20.
Palm Beach S	GP	03-05-22	$125k g	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 20.
Ocean S (G3T)	JRA	03-05-22	$886k a	4&up	6f	Turf	Closed on Jan 11.
Tulip Sho (G2T)	JRA	03-05-22	$1,072k a	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Jan 11.
Downthedustyroad S	OP	03-05-22	$150k g	4&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 18.
Nodouble S	OP	03-05-22	$150k g	3&up S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 18.
Santa Anita H (G1)	SA	03-05-22	$650k g	4&up	10f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 24.
Beholder Mile (G1)	SA	03-05-22	$500k g	4&up f/m	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 24.
Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1T)	SA	03-05-22	$500k g	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 24.
San Felipe S (G2)	SA	03-05-22	$400k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 24.
Buena Vista S (G2T)	SA	03-05-22	$200k g	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 24.
San Carlos S (G2)	SA	03-05-22	$200k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 24.
Curribot H	Sun	03-05-22	$75k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 25.
Cincinnati Trophy S	TP	03-05-22	#$125k g	3yo f	8f	AW	Closed on Feb 24.
John Battaglia Memorial S	TP	03-05-22	#$125k g	3yo	8.5f	AW	Closed on Feb 24.
Biogio's Rose S	Aqu	03-06-22	$100k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Yayoi Sho (G2T)	JRA	03-06-22	$1,120k a	3yo	10f	Turf	Closed on Jan 11.
China Doll S	SA	03-06-22	$100k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 24.
Santa Ysabel S (G3)	SA	03-06-22	$100k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 24.
Peppers Pride H	Sun	03-06-22	$100k g	3&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 25.
Fishtown S	PRX	03-07-22	$100k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 16.
Penn's Landing S	PRX	03-07-22	$100k g	4&up f/m	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 16.
Washington Crossing S	PRX	03-07-22	$100k g	4&up	8.32f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 16.
City of Brotherly Love S	PRX	03-08-22	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 16.
Main Line S	PRX	03-08-22	$100k g	3yo f	8.32f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 16.
Rittenhouse Square S	PRX	03-08-22	$100k g	3yo	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 16.
Society Hill S	PRX	03-08-22	$100k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 16.
LaSalle Starter H	PRX	03-09-22	$65k g	3&up f/m	8.32f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 16.
St. Joe's Starter H	PRX	03-09-22	$65k g	3&up	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 16.
Temple Starter H	PRX	03-09-22	$65k g	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 16.
Villanova Starter H	PRX	03-09-22	$65k g	3&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 16.
Drexel Starter H	PRX	03-09-22	$55k g	3&up f/m	5.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 16.
Penn State Starter H	PRX	03-09-22	$55k g	3&up	5.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 16.
U Penn Starter H	PRX	03-09-22	$55k g	3&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 16.
West Chester Starter H	PRX	03-09-22	$55k g	3&up f/m	8.32f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 16.
Arizona Oaks	TuP	03-11-22	$75k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	Not Available
Turf Paradise Derby	TuP	03-11-22	$75k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Cotton Fitzsimmons Mile	TuP	03-11-22	$100k g	3&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 2.
Phoenix Gold Cup	TuP	03-11-22	$100k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 2.
Correction S	Aqu	03-12-22	$100k g	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 26.
Allen "Black Cat" Lacombe Memorial S	FG	03-12-22	$75k g	3yo f	abt 8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 26.
Ogataul S	Fon	03-12-22	$15k a	3&up S	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 5
Captiva Island	GP	03-12-22	$100k g	4&up f/m	5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 27.
Hurricane Bertie S (G3)	GP	03-12-22	$100k g	4&up f/m	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 27.
Nakayama Himba S (G3T)	JRA	03-12-22	$780k a	4&up f/m	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 25.
Azeri S (G2)	OP	03-12-22	$350k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 25.
San Luis Rey S (G3T)	SA	03-12-22	$125k g	4&up	12f	Turf	$100/Mar 3
Columbia S	Tam	03-12-22	$75k g	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 26.
Michelob Ultra Challenger S (G3)	Tam	03-12-22	$100k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 26.
Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2)	Tam	03-12-22	#$400k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 26.
Hillsborough S (G2T)	Tam	03-12-22	#$225k g	4&up f/m	9f	Turf	Closed on Feb 26.
Florida Oaks (G3T)	Tam	03-12-22	#$200k g	3yo f	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 26.
Big Daddy S	TP	03-12-22	#$100k g	4&up	6f	AW	$0/Mar 3
Damon Runyon S	Aqu	03-13-22	$100k g	3yo S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 26.
Kinko Sho (G2T)	JRA	03-13-22	$1,383k a	4&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Jan 25.
Fillies' Revue (G2T)	JRA	03-13-22	$1,072k a	3yo f	7f	Turf	Closed on Jan 25.
Las Flores S (G3)	SA	03-13-22	$100k g	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$100/Mar 3
Cicada S	Aqu	03-19-22	$100k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	$100/Mar 5
Orphan Kist S	Fon	03-19-22	$15k a	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 12
Any Limit S	GP	03-19-22	$100k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 6
Hutcheson S	GP	03-19-22	$100k g	3yo	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 6
Silks Run S	GP	03-19-22	$100k g	4&up	5f	Turf	$0/Mar 6
Falcon S (G3T)	JRA	03-19-22	$823k a	3yo	7f	Turf	Closed on Jan 25.
Conniver S	Lrl	03-19-22	$75k g	4&up f/m S	7f	Dirt	$0/Mar 5
Not For Love S	Lrl	03-19-22	$75k g	4&up S	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 5
Beyond the Wire S	Lrl	03-19-22	$100k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	$0/Mar 5
Harrison E. Johnson Memorial S	Lrl	03-19-22	$100k g	4&up	8f	Dirt	$0/Mar 5
Private Terms S	Lrl	03-19-22	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Mar 5
Essex H (G3)	OP	03-19-22	$500k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Mar 4
Whitmore S (G3)	OP	03-19-22	$200k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 4
Irish O'Brien S	SA	03-19-22	$100k g	4&up f/m S	abt 6.5f	Turf	$100/Mar 10
Mt. Cristo Rey H	Sun	03-19-22	$100k g	3&up S	5.5f	Dirt	$0/Mar 11
Queen S	TP	03-19-22	#$100k g	4&up f/m	6f	AW	$0/Mar 10
Haynesfield S	Aqu	03-20-22	$100k g	4&up S	8f	Dirt	$100/Mar 5
Hanshin Daishoten (G2T)	JRA	03-20-22	$1,383k a	4&up	15f	Turf	Closed on Jan 25.
Spring S (G2T)	JRA	03-20-22	$1,120k a	3yo	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 25.
Sensational Star S	SA	03-20-22	$100k g	4&up S	abt 6.5f	Turf	$100/Mar 10
Flower Cup (G3T)	JRA	03-21-22	$764k a	3yo f	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 25.
Arizona Stallion S	TuP	03-25-22	$30k a	3yo S	8f	Dirt	Not Available
Caixa Eletronica	Aqu	03-26-22	$80k g	4&up R	7f	Dirt	$50/Mar 19
Stud Muffin	Aqu	03-26-22	$75k g	4&up R	11f	Dirt	$50/Mar 19
Xtra Heat S	Aqu	03-26-22	$75k g	4&up f/m R	6.5f	Dirt	$50/Mar 19
Peeping Tom S	Aqu	03-26-22	$70k g	4&up R	6.5f	Dirt	$50/Mar 19
More to Tell S	Aqu	03-26-22	$60k g	4&up R	8f	Dirt	$50/Mar 19
Sis City S	Aqu	03-26-22	$60k g	4&up f/m R	8f	Dirt	$50/Mar 19
Kelly Kip S	Aqu	03-26-22	$55k g	4&up R	6f	Dirt	$50/Mar 19
Videogenic S	Aqu	03-26-22	$55k g	4&up f/m R	6f	Dirt	$50/Mar 19
Belle Gallantey	Aqu	03-26-22	$45k g	4&up f/m R	7f	Dirt	$50/Mar 19
Dads Caps	Aqu	03-26-22	$45k g	4&up R	7f	Dirt	$50/Mar 19
Costa Rising S	FG	03-26-22	$75k g	3&up S	5.5f	Turf	$0/Mar 12
Crescent City Derby	FG	03-26-22	$75k g	3yo S	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Mar 12
Crescent City Oaks	FG	03-26-22	$75k g	3yo f S	8.32f	Dirt	$0/Mar 12
New Orleans Classic (G2)	FG	03-26-22	$500k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	$500/Mar 12
TwinSpires.com Fair Grounds Oaks (G2)	FG	03-26-22	$400k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	$400/Mar 12
Muniz Memorial Classic (G2T)	FG	03-26-22	$300k g	4&up	9f	Turf	$300/Mar 12
Tom Benson Memorial S	FG	03-26-22	$100k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	$100/Mar 12
TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2)	FG	03-26-22	$1,000k g	3yo	9.5f	Dirt	$1,000/Mar 12
Budweiser-Tondi S	Fon	03-26-22	$20k a	3&up	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 19
Melody of Colors	GP	03-26-22	$75k g	3yo f	5f	Turf	$0/Mar 13
Texas Glitter S	GP	03-26-22	$75k g	3yo	5f	Turf	$0/Mar 13
Bara Lass S	Hou	03-26-22	$100k g	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 16
Groovy S	Hou	03-26-22	$100k g	3yo S	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 16
Richard King Turf S	Hou	03-26-22	$100k g	4&up S	9f	Turf	$0/Mar 16
San Jacinto Turf S	Hou	03-26-22	$100k g	4&up f/m S	8.5f	Turf	$0/Mar 16
Spirit of Texas S	Hou	03-26-22	$100k g	4&up S	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 16
Star of Texas S	Hou	03-26-22	$100k g	4&up S	8f	Dirt	$0/Mar 16
Yellow Rose S	Hou	03-26-22	$100k g	4&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 16
Mainichi Hai (G3T)	JRA	03-26-22	$823k a	3yo	9f	Turf	Closed on Feb 8.
Nikkei Sho (G2T)	JRA	03-26-22	$1,383k a	4&up	12.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 8.
Southern Park S	MVR	03-26-22	$75k g	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	$50/Mar 16
Purple Martin S	OP	03-26-22	$150k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 11
Santa Ana S (G3T)	SA	03-26-22	$125k g	4&up f/m	10f	Turf	$100/Mar 17
Serena's Song S	TP	03-26-22	#$100k g	3yo f	6f	AW	$0/Mar 17
East View S	Aqu	03-27-22	$100k g	3yo f S	7f	Dirt	$100/Mar 12
Page Cortez S	FG	03-27-22	$75k g	3&up f/m S	abt 5.5f	Turf	$0/Mar 12
Shantel Lanerie Memorial S	FG	03-27-22	$75k g	4&up f/m S	8.32f	Dirt	$0/Mar 12
Star Guitar S	FG	03-27-22	$75k g	4&up S	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Mar 12
March S (G3)	JRA	03-27-22	$780k a	4&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 8.
Takamatsunomiya Kinen (G1T)	JRA	03-27-22	$3,507k a	4&up	6f	Turf	Closed on Feb 8.
Sunland Park Derby (G3)	Sun	03-27-22	$500k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 14.
Sunland Park Oaks	Sun	03-27-22	$300k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Mar 18
New Mexico Breeders' Derby	Sun	03-27-22	$250k g	3yo S	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Mar 18
New Mexico Breeders' Oaks	Sun	03-27-22	$250k g	3yo f S	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Mar 18
New Mexico State University S	Sun	03-27-22	$120k g	4&up S	8.32f	Dirt	$0/Mar 18
Bill Thomas Memorial S	Sun	03-27-22	$100k g	3&up	6.5f	Dirt	$0/Mar 18
Harry Henson H	Sun	03-27-22	$100k g	3&up f/m	8f	Dirt	$0/Mar 18
Equistaff Sophomore Turf	Tam	03-27-22	$110k g	3yo	8.5f	Turf	$0/Mar 13
Grey Goose Turf Classic	Tam	03-27-22	$110k g	4&up	9f	Turf	$0/Mar 13
NYRABETS Sprint S	Tam	03-27-22	$110k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 13
Ocala Breeders' Sales Sophomore	Tam	03-27-22	$110k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	$0/Mar 13
Pleasant Acres Stallions Distaff Turf	Tam	03-27-22	$110k g	3&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	$0/Mar 13
Stonehedge Farm South Sophomore Fillies	Tam	03-27-22	$110k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	$0/Mar 13

This thoroughbred stakes schedule can be sorted by any column.

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Saturday, February 12, 2022.  Tampa Bay Downs jumps into the Kentucky Derby prep series with the Sam Davis G3 today, a prep worth $250k and 17 Kentucky Derby points (10-4-2-1).  12 horses are entered after the morning scratch of Howling Time, one of 23 individual Derby Futures Pool entries.

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11 races are scheduled with over 111 runners to compete, including 2 other stakes races which we’ll break down as well.  First you’ll want to download today’s FREE Tampa Bay Grid to follow along.  Just click the link, no need to enter email or anything, no strings attached.  Watch out for those long shot specials (LSS)!

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R10 4:54ET 8.5f D SFDavis-G3 3 YO 

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Shipsational (6-1) is my top pick, one of two in the field with 2 stakes wins and 3 wins.  He’s 3 of 4 for Ed Barker with the 2 stakes victories coming in NY state restricted races last fall.  Not an LSS because he’ll likely be 4-1 or less by post time.  He has the top two PF’s in the field, both on dirt, one on slop, and currently ranked 7th in the Derby Double Dozen.

Classic Causeway (3-1) headlines the field after two strong ITM graded stakes Keeneland finishes last year at Keeneland following a debut maiden win.  This will be his first start of the year for Brian Lynch.

Strike Hard (6-1) is looking good after breaking maiden then coming in 2nd in the Mucho Macho Man stakes in January. Not much is known about trainer Matt Williams.

Unpredictable Bay (20-1) qualifies as a Super LSS! And he’s my 3^rd choice.  He comes off 3 strong maiden runs at Churchill, finally breaking the win at 6f last out for Ali Alnaz.  He has top EP and 2^nd best dirt PF’s.

Make it Big (9-2) is the other one with 3 wins and two stakes wins, coming off a Springboard Mile win in December for his first Derby points.  His PF’s aren’t great but he’s 3 for 3 and should step up for Saffie.

God of Love (10-1) will not go off at more than 6-1, coming off a Grey G3 win on poly at Woodbine last year.  It will be his first try on dirt for Mark Casse, but he has top LP in a race chalk full of speed, and everyone knows it.

Wild Cards:

There are several long shots that can complete the superfecta should one of the above falter, but they will need to step up in class: Trademark, Volcanic, Kitten Mischief, Little Vic.

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R8 3:49ET 8.18f D SuncoastL150k 3 YO F

The filly version of the Sam Davis is run at 8.2f for $150k in purse.

Nest (3-5) At first glance, it looks like Nest is the only possible winner after winning the Demoiselle G2 in December for Todd Pletcher.  That may be true but there are a couple other contestants.

Princess Elm (12-1) is my 2^nd pick and top LSS, coming off a first out maiden win last month right here at Tampa for Ali Alnaz, achieving the 2^nd best dirt PF in the field behind the favorite, at 6f.

Alittleloveandluck (5-1) will be the public second choice, after notching two straight wins, one on poly and a stakes win on turf.  The elusive dirt victory looms.

Peaceful Surprise (10-1) LSS also won at first ask right here at Tampa last month at this distance.

Ha Penny (8-1) will round out the super if one of the above doesn’t.

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R7 3:18ET 6f D PelicanL100k 4 UP 

This one looks very chalky and shouldn’t go further than the top 3 betting choices for the win, and the next two to round out the super.  Not a good betting race.

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For the rest of the races , use whoever has the best numbers in the Grid, and your brain, and try to get some good action to bankroll your Superbowl bets tomorrow.

Check out all the Weekend Winner Winter Wonderland options here to get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races.

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BONUS! El Camino Real Derby at 7:30PM ET Golden Gate.

11 runners will go 9f on the San Fran polytrack course for $100k and 17 Kentucky Derby points up for grabs (10-4-2-1), same as the Sam Davis G3.  The race is favored Mackinnon’s to lose but there are some other possible contenders.

Mackinnon (8-5) is tops in every category except EP, which is expected for a midpack runner.  First time on poly but no reason to think he won’t handle it after excellent turf and dirt races.  Doug-O also brings 10-1 Del Mo into the fray as a deep closer but the pace doesn’t look to set up for him.

Blackadder (7-2) gives Baffert a solid contender after breaking his maiden last out.  A solid midpack runner that should step up in class.

Stormy Samurai (8-1) has the best polytrack figure, achieved last out in a Golden Gate win. First time at two turns.  LSS alert!

Il Bellator (20-1) Super LSS alert! Got the 2^nd best poly PF last out in a GG win.

Boise (9-5) may have trouble with his late running style in a race without a lot of early speed.

Nuestro Engreido (20-1) Super LSS!  The lack of early speed could make the EP8 tough to run down.

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Good luck!

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Friday February 11, 2022.  Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 3 opened today, so it’s a good time to release the next Derby Dozen and One Top 25 rankings for male 3yo’s.  It’s been 3 weeks since the Future Pool 2 and the last Top 25 but a few things have changed.

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Since then, Messier blasted out a 15 length win in his 3yo debut for Baffert in a huge big Bob Lewis G3 win, earning him the highest Beyer of any 3yo.  In fact, he also got the highest Brisnet and Equibase figure for that effort as well, making last year’s Los Al Futurity loss seem like ancient history.

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It should be no surprise then that the field, “All Other 3yo’s” is now the heavily bet favorite in Pool 3, since it does not include any horses trained by Baffert, which is ridiculous because Baffert doesn’t own the horses.  4 Baffert trainees occupy our top 5 in the DDDDDD.  Maybe we should just call it 6D.

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It gets kind of shaky after the top 14 since many of them have not competed yet this year, and it is unknown when they will resume racing.  Generally speaking, at least 3 of the top 4 Ky Derby finishers are found in the top 12 of this list year after year.  Without further ado, here it is.

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Doug's Down and Dirty Derby Double Dozen Feb.11 2022

DD	Horse	Fri	ST	Sire	Trainer
1	Corniche	0.4	E8	Quality Road	Baffert Bob
2	Messier	0.4	EP7	Messier	Baffert Bob
3	Jack Christopher	0.4	EP6	Munnings	Brown Chad C
4	Smile Happy	13	P4	Runhappy	Mcpeek Kenneth G
5	Newgrange	0.4	EP6	Violence	Baffert Bob
6	Slow Down Andy	36	EP6	Nyquist	O'neill Doug
7	Shipsational	0.4	EP7	Midshipman	Barker Edward
8	Call Me Midnight	67	S0	Midnight Lute	Desormeaux Keith
9	Emmanuel	50	E6	More Than Ready	Pletcher Todd A
10	Epicenter	39	E8	Not This Time	Asmussen Steven M
11	White Abarrio	18	EP7	Race Day	Joseph Saffie A Jr
12	Rattle N Roll	37	P2	Connect	Mcpeek Kenneth G
13	Pappacap	42	EP6	Gun Runner	Casse Mark
14	Mo Donegal	12	P4	Uncle Mo	Pletcher Todd A
15	Giant Game	0.4	E5	Giant's Causeway	Romans Dale
16	Commandperformance	68	S3	Union Rags	Pletcher Todd A
17	Simplification	87	E8	Not This Time	Sano Antonio
18	Varatti	0.4	E6	Into Mischief	Pletcher Todd A
19	Major General	82	EP4	Constitution	Pletcher Todd A
20	Barber Road	96	P3	Race Day	Ortiz John Alexander
21	Zandon	61	P6	Upstart	Brown Chad C
22	Classic Causeway	49	E6	Giant's Causeway	Lynch Brian A
23	Make It Big	99	EP6	Neolithic	Joseph Saffie A Jr
24	Tiz The Bomb	0.4	P1	Hit It A Bomb	Mcpeek Kenneth G
25	High Oak	0.4	P6	Gormley	Mott William I
26	Dash Attack	0.4	EP2	Munnings	Mcpeek Kenneth G
27	Chasing Time	32	EP7	Not This Time	Asmussen Steven M
28	Trafalgar	0.4	EP4	Lord Nelson	Stall Albert M Jr
29	Courvoisier	0.4	EP8	Tapit	Breen Kelly J

Sort table by any column.

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You can see now that the Dozen is very Baffert top-heavy, and that they all have Friday evening odds of 4-5 since they’re part of the field.  Pletcher brings up the second half of the Top 25 with several high potential runners.

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Next we’ll take a look at the Futures Pool 3 action with the morning line odds as seen at pool opening.  Remember the pool closes at the end of Friday and Saturday, and the last call is 6pm on Sunday. Odds are locked in at the end of each day. 

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Note that the horses highlighted in red are running in the Sam Davis G3 stakes at Tampa tomorrow, Saturday the 12^th.  As luck would have it, my top pick for that race is Shipsational, who does not appear as an entry in the Pool.  We’ll see if his rank of #7 in the dozen has merit. Stay tuned for Saturday’s Sam Davis precap.

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Kentucky Derby Central has all the Ky Derby point standings and prep race schedule with results.

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Check out our Winter Wonderland options for subscribing to the WWC here, where you can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races.

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Friday, February 4, 2022 Vinton, LA. Delta Downs will have the most stakes races of any track this month, all in one day!  On Saturday Feb.5 they will run 10 stakes races usually known as Louisiana Premier Night in various categories with purses ranging from $60k to $150k on the 11 race card. 

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It’s scheduled to be quite chilly, with the day beginning below freezing, after a cold front moves in today. So they have preemptively switched to a daytime card starting at noon local time, 1PM ET.  For this year at least, it will be Louisiana Premier Day.  Get the free Delta Grid here to make your picks!

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Last week we gave you the Gulfstream Grid and long shot specials for Pegasus World Cup day.  Unfortunately the stakes races all wound up with favorites in top two spots and not much money to win.  In fact, the late Pick 4 paid only $24. Ugh.

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But we did get a couple big hits earlier in the day, beginning in the first race with our Super Long Shot Special of the day getting 2^nd at 44-1!  Despite a favorite winning, the $1 Exacta paid $183 and 50-cent Trifecta paid $606.  Not a bad start to the day.

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Why was that our LSS? Well if you look at the free Grid for that day, it was a contentious race and our super LSS had top LP, not by much, and also the top PF overall, and the top pair of PF’s.  We thought transferring to the artificial surface for the first time would do him well.

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Later in Race 6, our LSS Wolfie’s Dynaghost won at 20-1. You can see in the Grid that he had one of the top PF’s last race out, and had top EP.  The top EP rating always bodes well for an E8 frontrunner, and the fact that he was a lone such frontrunner is a great factor as well.

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The week before that for recap, we provided the Fairgrounds Grid and analysis.  For the featured Lecomte Stakes, our top LSS Call Me Midnight won at 28-1 for some great payouts.  An easy $182 Exacta payout and $300 for the trifecta.  The super was also simple and got $134 for the dime.  

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We also had some assorted LSS hits earlier in the day, especially in race 6 where the fireworks began to fly.  We called out 3 long shots at 8-1 and they finished 1^st 2^nd and 3^rd. 
            Exacta $364

            Trifecta $1076

            Dime super $556

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Those picks were all made a couple days beforehand of the race day.  This week, we’re going to wait and see what the track looks like and who scratches before finalizing analysis.  Stay tuned right here on this page for the long shot specials of the day!

Let’s go race by race to cover every base.  Keep in mind that Timothy Thornton is the #1 rider here by far.  Almost 90 more mounts than 2^nd place Dominguez, and he has over 100 wins while nobody else has more than 50.  So throw him in there and instead of flipping a coin on the horse, take a top 12 rider.

1	Timothy Thornton
2	Joel Dominguez
3	Joe Stokes
4	Alex Birzer
5	Jose Andres Guerrero
6	C.J. McMahon
7	Vicente Del-Cid
8	Kevin Roman
9	Ty Kennedy
10	Gerard Melancon
11	Thomas L. Pompell
12	Casey Fusilier

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R1 1:00ET 5f D PrmBnTmSt50k 4 UP FM

It’s only 5f but there’s a lot of early speed so I’ll take a late runner too.  5 looks like the best value play.

Predict:  9 4 19 6 5          LSS 6 5

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R2 1:28ET 5f D PremMtrnB100k 4 UP FM

No value here at all.  If 4 Cilla at 6-5 doesn’t run her usual, 8 or 5 will be there. Single 4

Predict:  4 8 5

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R3 1:56ET 7.5f D MSW 3 YO  38000

Maidens.  Anything could happen. First time starter looks good against proven losers.

Predict:  9 7 8 1 5 6         LSS:  8 1 5

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R4 2:26ET 5f D PrmRgCjSt50k 4 UP 

5 furongs, 6 horses, only two early runners.  Gotta have someone for 3^rd but don’t bet this one.

Predict:  4 5 6 7

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R5 2:56ET 8f D PremStarB100k 3 YO F

A good amount of early speed on paper but first at two turns, they may be hard rated.

Predict:  5 9 1 2 3            LSS 3

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R6 3:26ET 8f D PremLdys60k 4 UP FM

Not much value here but some decent mid shots in the 5-6 range.

Predict:  5 1 9 2 3

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R7 3:56ET 5f D PremSprtB100k 4 UP 

Down to 7 horses after they realized Bertie’s Galaxy is not a scratch.  Two horse race.

Predict:  9 7

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R8 4:26ET 8f D PremDstfB125k 4 UP FM

It’s Fort Polk’s to win or lose this one and looks chalky with TT riding Net a Bear.

Predict:  5 4 8 1 9            LSS 9

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R9 4:56ET 8f D PremPrncB100k 3 YO 

Louisiana Juvenile winner Unified Report will likely run closer to that performance than last out in G3.

Predict:  8 9 6 10 2 1       LSS 10 2

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R10 5:26ET 8.5f D PrmChampB150k 4 UP 

It’s tough to look past the top two but if you want to craft an exotic here’s who to use underneath.

Predict:  3 2 9 6 5 1         LSS 9 6 5

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R11 5:56ET 8.5f D PremGtlm60k 4 UP 

There’s no way Bistraya will be 12-1 or more than 5-1 for that matter at post time. Bet him anyway.

Predict:  11 9 4 10 1 2    LSS 11 9 2

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That’s it. You’ve got the Grid and all the picks.  Now go win some bucks!

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Did you know, you can get the Grid for ALL your favorite tracks and race days, right here.  Just pick the option that’s best for you.

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February 2, 2022. Thoroughbred Stakes racing is about to begin around the world again with 100 races on the schedule for the NTRA in North America and the Japan Racing Association.

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Delta Downs is the infrequent winner for most stakes races in a month with 12, and they’re all occurring in one day! Saturday Feb.5 marks Louisiana Premier Night, in which 12 stakes races in different categories will be run at Delta.

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The catch is, these races are scheduled to be run from noon to 5pm Louisiana time, so they may have to change the name to Premier Day. That’s a good thing, because a cold front moving in on Thursday will leave a high of 53 and low of 29.

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Stay tuned for the Delta Downs Premier Preemptive Precap PP’s and Picks at this link, which should be out by Thursday once posts and ML odds are confirmed. There are two 3yo races and 10 4up contests with purses from $50k to $100k.

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Meantime, consult the table below to find your favorite tracks and races.

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February 2022 Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan

Race	Track	Date	Purse	Age/Sex	Dist.	Surface	Fee, Due Date
A.T.B.A. Sales S	TuP	04-Feb	$35k a	4&up c/g R	6.5f	Dirt	Not Available
A.T.B.A. Sales S	TuP	04-Feb	$35k a	4&up f/m R	6.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Withers S (G3)	Aqu	05-Feb	$250k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 22.
Toboggan S (G3)	Aqu	05-Feb	$150k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 15.
Louisiana Bred Premier Night Starlet	DeD	05-Feb	$100k g	3yo f S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
Louisiana Bred Premier Night Prince	DeD	05-Feb	$100k g	3yo S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
Louisiana Bred Premier Night Bon Temps Starter	DeD	05-Feb	$50k g	4&up f/m S	5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
Louisiana Bred Premier Night Matron	DeD	05-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m S	5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
Louisiana Bred Premier Night Ladies Starter	DeD	05-Feb	$60k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
Louisiana Bred Premier Night Distaff	DeD	05-Feb	$125k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
Louisiana Bred Premier Night Ragin Cajun Starter	DeD	05-Feb	$50k g	4&up S	5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
Louisiana Bred Premier Night Sprint	DeD	05-Feb	$100k g	4&up S	5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
Louisiana Bred Premier Night Gentlemen Starter	DeD	05-Feb	$60k g	4&up S	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
Louisiana Bred Premier Night Championship	DeD	05-Feb	$150k g	4&up S	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
Claiborne Swale S (G3)	GP	05-Feb	$100k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 23.
Holy Bull S (G3)	GP	05-Feb	$250k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 23.
Kitten's Joy S (G3T)	GP	05-Feb	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 23.
Forward Gal S (G3)	GP	05-Feb	$100k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 23.
Sweetest Chant S (G3T)	GP	05-Feb	$100k g	3yo f	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 23.
Bayakoa S (G3)	OP	05-Feb	$250k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
Thunder Road S (G3T)	SA	05-Feb	$100k g	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Jan 27.
San Pasqual S (G2)	SA	05-Feb	$200k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 27.
Santa Monica S (G2)	SA	05-Feb	$200k g	4&up f/m	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 27.
Tampa Bay S (G3T)	Tam	05-Feb	#$175k g	4&up	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 22.
Endeavour S (G3T)	Tam	05-Feb	#$175k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 22.
Forego S	TP	05-Feb	#$100k g	4&up	6.5f	AW	Closed on Jan 27.
Ruthless S	Aqu	06-Feb	$100k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 22.
Kisaragi Sho (G3T)	JRA	06-Feb	$823k a	3yo	10f	Turf	Closed on Dec 14.
Tokyo Shimbun Hai (G3T)	JRA	06-Feb	$838k a	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Dec 14.
Robert B. Lewis S (G3)	SA	06-Feb	$200k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 27.
Las Virgenes S (G3)	SA	06-Feb	$100k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 27.
La Coneja S	Sun	06-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 28.
Turf Paradise Turf Stakes	TuP	11-Feb	$60k g	4&up	8.5f	Turf	Not Available
Glendale H	TuP	11-Feb	$60k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Not Available
Gander S	Aqu	12-Feb	$100k g	3yo S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 29.
El Camino Real Derby	GG	12-Feb	$100k g	3yo	9f	AW	$50/Feb 3
Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint (G3T)	GP	12-Feb	$100k g	4&up	5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 30.
Ladies' Turf Sprint S	GP	12-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m	5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 30.
Queen Cup (G3T)	JRA	12-Feb	$764k a	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Dec 28.
Razorback H (G3)	OP	12-Feb	$600k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 28.
Sweet Life S (G3T)	SA	12-Feb	$100k g	3yo f	abt 6.5f	Turf	$100/Feb 3
Sam F. Davis S (G3)	Tam	12-Feb	#$250k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 29.
Suncoast S	Tam	12-Feb	#$150k g	3yo f	8.32f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 29.
Pelican S	Tam	12-Feb	#$100k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 29.
Minaret S	Tam	12-Feb	$50k g	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 29.
Valdale S	TP	12-Feb	#$100k g	3yo f	6.5f	AW	$0/Feb 3
Broadway S	Aqu	13-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 29.
Kyodo News Service Hai (G3T)	JRA	13-Feb	$823k a	3yo	9f	Turf	Closed on Dec 28.
Kyoto Kinen (G2T)	JRA	13-Feb	$1,283k a	4&up	11f	Turf	Closed on Dec 28.
Startac S	TuP	18-Feb	$60k g	3yo	7.5f	Turf	Not Available
Princess of Palms S	TuP	18-Feb	$60k g	3yo f	7.5f	Turf	Not Available
Hollie Hughes	Aqu	19-Feb	$100k g	4&up S	6f	Dirt	$100/Feb 5
Risen Star S Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2)	FG	19-Feb	$400k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	$400/Feb 5
Rachel Alexandra S Presented by Fasig-Tipton (G2)	FG	19-Feb	$300k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	$300/Feb 5
Colonel Power S	FG	19-Feb	$100k g	4&up	5.5f	Turf	$100/Feb 5
Mineshaft S (G3)	FG	19-Feb	$250k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	$250/Feb 5
Fair Grounds S (G3T)	FG	19-Feb	$150k g	4&up	9f	Turf	$150/Feb 5
Albert M. Stall Memorial S	FG	19-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	$100/Feb 5
El Dorado Shooter	GG	19-Feb	$75k g	3&up S	6f	AW	$50/Feb 10
Gulfstream Park Sprint	GP	19-Feb	$150k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	$0/Feb 6
Two Altazano S	Hou	19-Feb	$75k g	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Jim's Orbit S	Hou	19-Feb	$75k g	3yo S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Miss Bluebonnet Turf S	Hou	19-Feb	$75k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Turf	$0/Feb 9
H-Town S	Hou	19-Feb	$75k g	4&up S	7f	Dirt	$0/Feb 9
Houston Turf S	Hou	19-Feb	$75k g	4&up S	8.5f	Turf	$0/Feb 9
Diamond S (G3T)	JRA	19-Feb	$886k a	4&up	17f	Turf	Closed on Dec 28.
Kyoto Himba S (G3T)	JRA	19-Feb	$780k a	4&up f/m	7f	Turf	Closed on Dec 28.
Miracle Wood S	Lrl	19-Feb	$100k g	3yo	8f	Dirt	$0/Feb 5
Wide Country S	Lrl	19-Feb	$100k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	$0/Feb 5
General George S (G3)	Lrl	19-Feb	$250k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	$0/Feb 5
John B. Campbell S	Lrl	19-Feb	$100k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Feb 5
Barbara Fritchie S (G3)	Lrl	19-Feb	$250k g	4&up f/m	7f	Dirt	$0/Feb 5
Nellie Morse S	Lrl	19-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Feb 5
Dixie Belle S	OP	19-Feb	$150k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	$0/Feb 4
Pasadena S	SA	19-Feb	$100k g	3yo	8f	Turf	$100/Feb 10
Turf Dash S	Tam	19-Feb	#$100k g	4&up	5f	Turf	$0/Feb 5
Lightning City S	Tam	19-Feb	#$100k g	4&up f/m	5f	Turf	$0/Feb 5
Dust Commander S	TP	19-Feb	#$100k g	4&up	8.5f	AW	$0/Feb 10
February S (G1)	JRA	20-Feb	$2,469k a	4&up	8f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 28.
Kokura Daishoten (G3T)	JRA	20-Feb	$886k a	4&up	9f	Turf	Closed on Dec 28.
San Simeon S (G3T)	SA	20-Feb	$100k g	4&up	abt 6.5f	Turf	$100/Feb 10
Enchantress S	Sun	20-Feb	$100k g	3yo f S	8f	Dirt	$0/Feb 11
Maddie May S	Aqu	21-Feb	$100k g	3yo f S	8f	Dirt	$100/Feb 5
Spring Fever S	SA	21-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	$100/Feb 10
Tiznow S	SA	21-Feb	$100k g	4&up S	8f	Dirt	$100/Feb 10
Take Charge Brandi	DeD	25-Feb	$75k g	3yo f R	7f	Dirt	$0/Feb 10
Stymie S	Aqu	26-Feb	$125k g	4&up	8f	Dirt	$125/Feb 12
Big Drama	DeD	26-Feb	$75k g	3yo R	7f	Dirt	$0/Feb 10
Grasmick S	Fon	26-Feb	$15k a	3&up	4f	Dirt	$0/Feb 19
Royal Delta S (G3)	GP	26-Feb	$150k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Feb 13
Rebel S (G2)	OP	26-Feb	$1,000k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	$500/Feb 11
Honeybee S (G3)	OP	26-Feb	$300k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Feb 11
Wishing Well S	SA	26-Feb	$75k a	4&up f/m	6.5f	Turf	$0/Feb 17
Wintergreen S	TP	26-Feb	#$100k g	4&up f/m	8f	AW	$0/Feb 17
Hankyu Hai (G3T)	JRA	27-Feb	$886k a	4&up	7f	Turf	Closed on Jan 11.
Nakayama Kinen (G2T)	JRA	27-Feb	$1,383k a	4&up	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 11.
Mine That Bird Derby	Sun	27-Feb	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Feb 18
Island Fashion S	Sun	27-Feb	$75k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	$0/Feb 18
Red Hedeman Mile	Sun	27-Feb	$100k g	3yo S	8f	Dirt	$0/Feb 18
Albert and Henry Dominguez Memorial H	Sun	27-Feb	$100k g	4&up S	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Feb 18

February 2022 Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan can be sorted by any of the column headings and searched using the box on the top right of table.

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Remember, you can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races here.

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Thursday, January 27, 2022.  Gulfstream Park is having it’s biggest race day of the year on Saturday January 29, hosting the Pegasus World Cup Series along with some other assorted graded stakes races for over $5 million purse money, with great racers from around the world.

CLICK HERE FOR FREE ROCKET MORTGAGE SUPERBOWL SQUARE FOR $MILLIONS IN PRIZES!

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In addition, the Rainbow Pick 6 will carryover $443k into a pool that will certainly surpass $1 million to sweeten the deal. The jackpot Rainbow 6 begins in race 7 with the William McKnight G3 and consists of all graded stakes races, including the Pegasus races, all of which are covered below.

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The featured races are the Pegasus World Cup G1 on Dirt worth $3 million, the PWC Turf G1 for $1 million, and the PWC F&M Turf for $500k.  Also on the outstanding race card are the Fred Hooper G3, Inside Information G2, McKnight G3,and La Prevoyante G3, collectively worth $700k. 

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Altogether on the 14 race docket there are 12 races with about 140 horses ready to run before Saturday morning scratches.  It is scheduled to be the coldest day since last winter for south Florida, starting off the day in the low 50s and progressing to maybe 60, so the horses won’t get too hot.  First post is at 1130AM, and the stakes racing begins at 130PM.

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We’ll break down the big races here 2 days ahead of time and point out some other great long shot specials (LSS) to use along the way if they suit up to race at post time.  Last week we gave you the 28-1 long shot winner of the Lecomte G3 as our LSS of the day. What you want to do first is download Saturday’s free Gulfstream Grid, no strings attached, just click the download link. Morning scratches processed.

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R12 5:34ET 9f D PWCInvit-G1 4 UP 

Nine of America’s best race horses have accepted the invitation to run in this year’s edition, and they probably all will run. Odds are shown are official morning line prices.

The chalk: 

Knicks Go (6-5) is the defending champion and was thought to be unbeatable at this point last year, having won 4 in a row including the BC Dirt Mile.  He then finished 4^th in the Saudi Cup and Met Mile, both G1’s but not great performances.  His last 4, unbeatable again including a BC Classic G1 win last out, answering any distance questions. He draws the 1 post where he will break on top and get the lead early as he has done in every race for Brad Cox.  It will be his last race before retiring to Taylor so they would like to go out on top.

Life Is Good (7-5) is the 2^nd choice and also has also broke on top and had the lead at 1^st call in all 7 career races, first for Baffert and now Pletcher in the last 4. Something will have to give between these speedsters, both of whom refuse to not have the lead at any point in the race.  His only loss is by a neck in a G1 last year, and last out he won the BC Dirt Mile. Perhaps the next Knicks Go in the making.

The speed duel will ensue early and it will be interesting to see exactly who breaks on top and if they go neck and neck blazing around the track setting record fractions for 9f.  Add to it Stiletto Boy, who likes to get the early lead also but can in no way match the speed of the top two.

The Long Shots: 

The other 7 not in chalk are all long shots on the morning line.  Frankly the only reason any of them have a shot on paper is if the speed duel up front gets so intense that they burn out. It would take the worst race of either favorite in the last 2 years for another to have a winning chance.  But maybe you want to craft a little trifecta or superfecta that won’t pay much.  Who are the best of the rest?

Title Ready (20-1) the top LSS hasn’t done much in his last 2 stakes races but pops up with some strong runs here and there. You always have to look at top LP to hit in a 9f race with early speed.

Endorsed (20-1) LSS2 looks like he’s in a strange spot after running sprint distance in his last 8, but has delivered 4 strong closing moves on fast paced races since Maker took over as coach.

Sir Winston (12-1) LSS3 had a great time at Woodbine late last year after taking almost a year off subsequent to some very poor dirt outings.  We’ll see if he is ready for dirt action again.

Empty Tomb (20-1) is the only other contender that can possibly fit into the super.

There you go, two faves to key and 4 longshots to wheel.

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R11 4:49ET 9f T PWCTfInv-G1 4 UP 

The chalk:

Colonel Liam (3-1) appears to be a deserving favorite and is the defending champion, however he hasn’t raced in 7 months after a subpar Manhattan in which he was going too fast early.  Before that he had 4 consecutive wins with Irad Ortiz up.  In fact, his lifetime record is 5-0 under Ortiz, 0 for 4 without him. Irad will be up on Saturday so that bodes well, along with top LP and Power ratings.

Never Surprised (7-2) also seems to have good reason for chalk having won two turf stakes going away, subsequent to 3 runner-up finishes in graded stakes.  He’s def a young up and comer, but I dislike choosing an E8 in a 9f turf race, especially when there’s another legit E8 in Channel Cat, a 7YO with vast graded stakes experience.  A speed duel could ensue.

The Long Shots:

Doswell (10-1) loos like he’s rounding into top form again.  Last year he followed up a Ft. Lauderdale G2 runner-up finish with his best career race, a 3^rd place in the McKnight G3, a 12f on the undercard of this race. This year he’s coming off a win in the Ft Lauderdale. Alvarado up for all four.

Hit the Road (8-1) posted the best last-race PF in this field in an SA G2. I assume there’s a reason he’s run at exactly one mile in his past 10 races, but connections are hard pressed to decline an invite to a $1 million race.

Sacred Life (6-1) will likely remain the 3^rd choice after alternating 1-head wins with Field Pass his last two races, winning the 9f G3.  He’s a solid late runner who would benefit from a speed duel up front.  Irad Ortiz will be up for the 4^th consecutive time. The duo were 4^th here 2 years ago.

Field Pass (10-1) got the earlier jump as usual and outlasted Sacred Life by a head last out in a 8.5f G2.  If we’re to believe the Knickerbocker G3 PF’s, they’re both solid contenders here.

Channel Cat (12-1) normally runs the longer distances of 10f and up, but could benefit from a return to the shorter 9f distance of this year’s race.

Atone (20-1) and Flavius (15-1) have a good chance to hit the board for Michael Maker if the pace doesn’t get too heated up front.

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Other long shots specials to look out for throughout the day:

Race 1: Diligent 8-1, Marisa’s Mission 12-1, and Strike Appeal 30-1 super LSS.

Race 2: Mad Mocha and Make Way both 15-1, and both of which will be bet down.

Race 3:  Final Belle 8-1, Serenade A Kitten 20-1, Passion Plus, Earth Strike, Magna Mater 15-1. Wide open.

Race 4:  Bourbon Heist and Mackillop 6-1, Magia Nera and Umbra 12-1, No Nay Franklin 15-1

Race 6: Mischief Afoot 6-1, Wolfie’s Dynaghost 10-1, Fancy Liquor 8-1, Order and Law, Tiesto 12-1

Race 7 G3: Bama Breeze 12-1, Sole Volante 20-1, Mandate 30-1

Race 8 G2:  Crumb Bun 12-1, Dance D’Oro 6-1, Family Time 20-1, Pacific Gale 8-1

Race 9 G3:  In a Hurry 12-1, Gift List 15-1, Lady Speightspeare 8-1

Race 10 G3:  Girolamo’s Attack 12-1

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The last two races we covered first so there you have all the best long shots to crowbar into your exotic bets and win some big money on the day. Good luck!

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Remember you can get the Grid for all the major tracks and races here, just choose your best option of our great winter packages.  

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Monday, January 24, 2022.

Occasionally we like to remind you how you can use the Grid to get great long shots to hit, especially when we’re talking about young 2yo and 3yo horses.  It so happens we provided the Grid AND some free analysis and long shot specials for Saturday at the Fair Grounds.  Results chart posted here.

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CLICK HERE FOR FREE ROCKET MORTGAGE SUPERBOWL SQUARE FOR $MILLIONS IN PRIZES!

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This isn’t Monday quarterbacking, which is no doubt occurring at unheard of rates in the NFL, this is from a Precap posted way beforehand on Thursday the 20^th for the Fairgrounds, which included the free Grid,and here’s what we had to say about the Fairgrounds Saturday card including the Lecomte and some other races.

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After going over the low priced chalk pair in the Lecomte, which wound up at 3-2 each, we said: “Call Me Midnight is my favorite long shot at 20-1, coming off a subpar G2 in November but before that an impressive maiden breakthrough for Keith Desormeaux.  He also has top LP in the Grid, which bodes well in a race with a good amount of early speed in it.”

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Call Me Midnight won at 28-1 for a great win payout, and despite the chalk pair finishing 2^nd and 3^rd, some decent exotics also with an easy $182 Exacta payout and $300 for the trifecta.  The super was also simple and got $134 for the dime.

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The race was only worth 10 points for the winner, but it was the first Kentucky Derby points for the Desormeaux trainee and he will no doubt add some points down the Road to the Roses since it was only his first race of the year and Keith likes to race them monthly whenever possible.

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We called out one long shot each in a half dozen other races to keep an eye on, including race 1, so your day should have got off to a good start in the first race. Here’s what we had to say about those long shots:

“Graceleadsushome 8-1 in race 1.”

This filly won at 7-2

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In race 6, a maiden special weight on turf, the sparks really began to fly for our LSS picks:

“Co Conspirator, Tiz of Thee, and Hoglayers RIP, all 8-1 in race 6.”

Tiz of Thee and Hoglayers RIP finished 1 and 2, at 9-1 and 15-1, followed by the first 2 public choices.

            Exacta $364

            Trifecta $1076

            Dime super $556

With a decent couple WPS bets, it’s nice to clear $2000 on less than $50 in bets.

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“Rather Be Lucky 8-1 in race 7.”

As in the first race, this one also got bet down to 4-1 and went 2^nd behind the favorite.

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The other three races where we called out long shots didn’t pan out, but let me know if anyone else is calling out long shots that win or even hit the board in 100% of races because I want to subscribe to that service.

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For now, you can subscribe to our service here by using the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races. There are multiple subscriber plans to choose from right here on this page. So you can find the right plan for you.  And you can always find a good Precap article and free Grid here every week.