Weekend Winners Club

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Friday, May 20, 2022.  Pimlico kicks off its biggest weekend of the year with 6 stakes races today, highlighted by the Black Eyed Susan G2, the filly version of the Preakness, and preceded by other graded stakes including the Pimlico Special G3.

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The Pimlico Special was a Grade 1 race for many decades until the recent mismanagement of Pimlico which included the race not even being held in 2007, 2009, 2010, and 2011, despite its rich history of great horses.

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The race is near and dear to the heart of most true horse fans, with its inaugural champion War Admiral in 1937 paving the way, before being narrowly beaten in the famous match race the next year by Seabiscuit. 

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Other great champions of the Pimlico Special include Challedon, Citation, Assault, Tom Fool, the incredible Cigar, and more recently, Skip Away, Real Quiet, Mineshaft, Eddington, and Invasor.

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Unfortunately for us, such great horses now get retired at age 3 and never get to run in this race.  Also of misfortune for gamblers, the two top ML choices are legit, and the Grid confirms this.

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But, in a 9.5f race, regardless of its locale, you have to look at top LP, which the Grid provides you.  Among the top 4 in LP are two 12-1 late runners, including Treasure Trove, who has a strong record at nearby Laurel and good situational trainer stats (which the Grid also provides, unlike other PP’s.)

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In the Black Eyed Susan, the 13 talented filly field is favored with the great Adare Manor, who fought vigorously for 2^nd by a neck in the Santa Anita Oaks.  She is also the 4rules filly and top in power, etc.

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But you can see from my personal notations that I have Morning Matcha ranked #1 for this race, mostly because of the top LP rating.  This race has 6 horses with Quirin points above 5, so it has to be considered as one in which the pace will be hotly contested, lending a hand to the late runners.

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Morning Matcha at 20-1 has never had a fast pace up front in 10 career races, including the 5 sprints before she broke maiden.  I think this race finally sets up for her closing style at a big price. Midnight Stroll also catches the eye at 15-1, with good LP albeit a frontrunner thus far.

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The fillies with single digit odds have good credentials and are impossible to ignore, but with all this speed I’m trying to focus on the late runners. Miss Yearwood should have a great shot if this speed duel develops, and Beguine can run from off the pace at 12-1.

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Racing starts at 11:30AM today at Pimlico so I’m cutting the analysis short.  You can get the full Pimlico Grids for Friday and Saturday, and in fact all of your favorite tracks, right here, so check out the options.

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And stay tuned to this free portion of the site for the Preakness Precap and some good handicapping lessons for the big Saturday races.

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Saturday, May 14, 2022.  Belmont Park has its unofficial Belmont Stakes prep today, mostly for those 3yo’s that weren’t in the Kentucky Derby field and don’t plan on running in the Preakness next weekend. 5 graded stakes in all including the Manhattan G1 on turf right before the Pan G2.

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Belmont has 11 races scheduled with about 80 competitors after morning scratches. Racing begins at 1PM with the first stakes race, the Vagrancy G3 slated to begin at 2:05PM for race 3.  Weather in Elmont is warm and cloudy with rain likely from 3:30-5:30PM. 

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We’ll break down the graded stakes a bit and point out some good long shot specials. First you’ll want to grab today’s free Belmont Grid to follow along and then make some picks of your own.

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R2 1:34ET 6f T Clm 35000n3l 3 UP 

This race begins the early Pick 4 and you would be remiss to not have 1, 2, and 7 anchoring the verticals.  The truth is it’s kind of wide open and the kind of race I like to wheel and deal for the super.  A case can be made for just about all of the long shots, but particularly the longest #10 switching to turf at 20-1.

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R3 2:05ET 6.5f D VagrncyH-G3 4 UP FM

Don’t bet on a 5 horse race with a legit 4-5 favorite, but include her and either 4 and/or 2 as the backup filly in the verticals if you’re not singling.

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R4 2:34ET 6f t Alw 50000s 3 UP FM

The favorite 8 looks very strong cutting back to 1-turn but the 3-1 odds will likely decrease. In a turf sprint I normally like the 4 rules horse, which in this case is #12, and the top LP #11 at 10-1.  Then we also have top EP #1 at 8-1.  #2 will try to go gate to wire and will if they let her.

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R5 3:06ET 6f D Runhappy-G3 4 UP 

Another short field of 5 not good for betting.  It would be nice to single the lone frontrunner and favorite #1, but 4-rules #3 will be pressing right behind him ready to pounce.  #2 looks like he will need another furlong unless suddenly an unscheduled speed duel develops.

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R8 4:46ET 11f t ManOWar-G1 4 UP 

The late Pick 4 begins here with the G1 on Belmont’s famous inner turf, which you can tell by the lower case ‘t’ denoted in the race.  I think Belmont is the only North American track with 2 turf courses, correct me if I’m wrong. 

It would be nice to just go with the two favorites in the verticals and certainly they’re deserving, especially since Gufo finished 2^nd by a nose in this race last year. Yibir won the BC Turf in his last USA race.

But the truth is, 11f or not, there is barely a semblance of speed in this.  Longest shot So High at 30-1 ML, had his best career PF in this race last year, finishing only 2 back.  More likely is Abaan at 9-2, who has won stakes races longer than this on the front end.

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R9 5:19ET 9f D PeterPan-G3 3 YO 

Alas, the Peter Pan Prep! For a field of only 8, this one sure is wide open. I’d like to start off by tossing a couple of them but I’m more likely to wheel and deal.  If it does rain significantly before the Pan and we end up with some form of mud, toss Cooke Creek.

Otherwise, it does look like it will be won by a mid to late pack runner, like Golden Glider at 4-1, who has been in above his head the last few races, all graded stakes, but 5 in this field haven’t even attempted stakes races yet.

Western River 6-1 ML finally got a solid pace to run at last out and won handily.

Complete Agenda 8-1 you would like to toss, but consider that he broke maiden last out at 9f after stumbling at the start, Jose Ortiz on him and Pletcher behind him. That makes him easily the best long shot.

Prediction:  3 5 6 2 4 1

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R10 5:50ET 8.5f t Beaugay-G3 4 UP FM

Nothing against the even money favorite, but she hasn’t raced since November. I have to go with some speed in a 8.5f race with barely any speed.

Prediction:  4 6 1 3.  Note that most of those are LSS.

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R11 6:21ET 7f T Alw 80000n1x 3 UP FM

In the nightcap and final race in all verticals including the late Pick 4 and Pick 6, it’s hard to not go with the two that will likely be the top 2 favorites, 9 and 2. 

But 7f on turf is a great time to add top LP, and believe it or not, that is dirt racer #1 at 15-1.  True, she sucked on turf before, but at that point in time, she sucked in general. Recently she’s been ITM in 3 straight stakes races.

#11 Autumn Glory looks likely to succeed at one turn in her 2022 debut.

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You can get the Preakness Grid, including a weekend special for Pimlico including Friday and Saturday, and the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races including Belmont, right here. So check that out before you leave.

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May 7 2022.  The annual Kentucky Derby for Dummies is back again this year, due to an uproar from fans of the simpleton guide because they haven’t seen it yet.  All we’ve issued so far is these boring statistical Derby Lessons, which you’re too busy to read through.

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Full Kentucky Derby Grid with over 80 historical and performance factors here.

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But we’ve aggregated all of those lessons and incorporated them into  the final Derby Dirty Dozen, and this Derby for Dummies guide, which is perfect for any recreational fan to show others how much you know about the 3yo horses.

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First you download the Derby for Dummies graphic to your phone or tablet, or print it out.  If you also don’t habla electronics fluently, open it in a new tab or window first to enlarge it.

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Then, when Discussing Derby today with your friends and family, you can say, “I like Mo Donegal because he has a great trainer and jockey and his closing maneuver to win the Wood was superb.  I gave him a grade of A across the board.  And did you know Todd has won 5 Triple Crown races already?” Then you show people the Dummy guide sheet that you made.

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The spreadsheet version above gives you hidden information in the comment sections. See all those red markers in the top corner of each cell?  Those mean you can click on that cell and see more information about the horse, prior race, pedigree, trainer, etc.

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The truth is that a lot of work, knowledge, analysis, and historical information went into assigning these grades, but you can pretend you’re an expert just by studying it for a few minutes.

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How to use it gambling?  Normally 3 of the top 4 Derby finishers will be from the 5 horses assigned a final grade of A.  The other outlier will likely come from the B but maybe even the C category.  The bottom line is if they didn’t make the grade, they’re not getting purse money.

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So have fun talking Derby today after making yourself an instant expert.  If you need the Grid for all the great stakes racing on the undercard today while you follow along on NBC or Peacock TV, you can get it here.

Kentucky Derby race day Grid for all races available here.

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Good luck!

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May 7, 2022 Churchill Downs.  This is the Day of the Kentucky Derby, in case you’ve ben living in a cave or something.  Not that there’s anything wrong with that, as long as you get a phone and data signal somewhere near the cave.  Make sure you also check out Derby for Dummies and all of the Derby Lessons.

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Racing is about to begin at 10:30am as I’m writing this, so I’ll make it short and sweet.  My mind was made up a few days ago about the top 12 ranking, but I left myself some leeway in case of last minute roster changes.  Which, in this case, only Ethereal Road scratched and that has no impact.

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Note that in all of the prior year versions of the final dozen before the Run for the Roses, 3 of the top 4 came from the top 7 ranked horses and all 4 of them were in the top 12.  This year will be no different.  This graphic shows the rankings, the last 4 PFs and some other info that went into consideration.

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Are they ranked in order of points? Obviously not. In order of ML odds? Doesn’t look like it.  In order of PF’s? To some extent but not completely. After all, Tiz the Bomb has one of the best PF’s, but he’s proven to be very slow on dirt so I threw him out.

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That’s it for now, take that chart to the bank with you after nailing some good exotics.  Remember to also use the Derby for Dummies guide for the final Dummy rankings which are very similar.

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You can get the Grid for all the races at Churchill today, as well all your other favorite tracks and races if desired, right here.

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May 6 2021.  If there’s one lesson you should really heed, it’s this one.  In this edition of the Kentucky Derby Lessons, we shall cover the major prep races leading up to the Derby, and their inherent relativism.  We will focus on the Bob Baffert Era which began in 1997 when he won the Kentucky Derby in two consecutive years.  

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Earlier today: Kentucky Oaks Precap

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Obviously, the final prep race for these contestants is important to tune up for the Derby, but it is also a very important factor in determining if they can actually win the big one. It may not surprise you that last year’s Derby winner was 2^nd in his final race, and the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners ALL won their final prep.

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Let’s just some up the results with some numbers and percentages.

In the 25 race span from 1997-2021, the Kentucky Derby winner has won their final prep 64% of the time, and another 28% were runners up in their final prep, making it an astounding 92% that were top 2 in their final prep.  Only 2 winners weren’t top 2; they finished 4^th in their final prep.  

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NO Derby winner was worse than 4^th in their final prep, and in fact only one Derby runner up, last year’s Mandaloun, was worse than 4^th in their last race before running for the roses.

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In only 4 of the 25 races (16%), was the final prep for the winner NOT a Big 6 Prep.  To define that, it’s one of the 6 Grade 1 or 2 races leading up to the Derby.  In modern terms since the point system was invented, it’s a Derby race worth 100 points (or more) leading up to the Run for the Roses.  Take a look:

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(Note: for 2020, we substituted the races to applicable preps leading up to the Derby, including the the Belmont, Travers, and Haskell.  The usual Big 6 races were either cancelled or run several months beforehand rather than within the last 2 months.  Things returned to normal in 2021.)

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This grid also shows that the Ky Derby runner up also finished 1 or 2 in their final prep the vast majority of the time.  78% of the horses running 1 and 2 in the Kentucky Derby also ran 1 or 2 in their final prep, and in 84% of the races, their final prep was a Big 6 race.

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Thus, a major predictor of a winner or runner up finish in the Kentucky Derby, is that they finished 1^st or 2^nd in their final Prep, and the value increases if it was a Big 6 prep, which is why it is a critical criteria in the Derby Grid and also in any serious attempting to predict a Derby champ.

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Note that 11 of the 12 this year are participants in the run for the roses, so we already narrowed the field down by about half just in this exercise.  In a previous Derby Lesson about performance figures, and with another about trainers and jockeys, we narrowed it down further. 

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Grades for each of these categories will be aggregated and displayed in tomorrow Derby for Dummies guide which includes a chart with total scores.  Previous Derby for Dummies have done very well.   There will be one more lesson before that is issued so stay tuned.

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To get the full Kentucky Derby Grid with over 80 historical, pedigree, and critical criteria, or the full Derby day Grid, click here.

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Friday May 6 2022.  Churchill Downs kicks off Derby weekend with 7 graded stakes today, highlighted by the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks wherein 14 brilliant 3yo fillies will run for a measly $1.25 million purse.  Most of the 13 race card is for fillies and mares on Ladies Day.

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Racing began at 10:30am, that’s right in the morning, with a 3yo filly claiming race. Stakes racing begins with race 5 at 12:43pm, with 6 graded stakes races leading up the Oaks, scheduled for 5:51pm. 

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Weather is pleasant and cloudy for now but with an increasing strong chance of rain and storms in the late afternoon and evening.  We’ll hope for the best but keep your mudders in mind, and especially if their mudder was a mudder.

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So far today the EP rating in the Grid has been working well on dirt, even though some of the winners are coming from off the pace.  Here’s the current results and outlook including long shot specials (LSS).

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Race 1: top 3 in EP finished 1 2 and 4.

Race 2: top 3 in EP finished 2 1 and 3, with the winner being a nice 10-1 long shot.

Race 3 and 4 were won by obvious favorites that were top in power, LP , etc in the Grid.

Race 5 on turf was ruled by the top LP’s, at 1-1, 5-2. 7-1, and 33-1 in 4^th.   

Race 6:  3 is 2^nd LP is 12-1 on the ML.  Top LP by far is 6-1 Battle Bling who is also 4 rules and best PF.

Race 7: Another top EP special for you is 2 at 5-1.

Race 8: Lone frontrunner #2 at 10-1 ML.  Best PF last out #1 at 20-1 switching to turf from poly. LSS!

Race 9:  Best PF at this distance is tie with the favorite and 9 at 15-1 cutting back to one turn.

Race 10:  Long shots I like are 6 and 11 at 10-1 each and 12 at 12-1 ML.

Race 11:  The Oaks.  On paper, with 3 E8’s and an EP7, the upfront pace should be somewhat torrid. Can the speed hold up?  If it does you have the E8’s at 30-1, 4-1, and 20-1.  If not, the two late running favorites will be happy to scoop up the prize.  But there are other long shots to consider.

2 Nostalgic 15-1 was the Gazelle G3 winner with 2^nd best PF at 15-1 ML.

9 Desert Dawn 20-1 won the SA Oaks G2 giving her the best PF last race out and 4 rules alert.

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Here’s a look at the Oaks Grid the way I look at it with some interesting things highlighted.  Open in a new tab to enlarge.

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There are two more races after the oaks.

Race 12:  I like 4 and 5 to make some noise at 6-1 and 8-1.

Race 13:  The speedster 10 is at 8-1 despite having the top power rating and LP in the Grid.

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You can get the full Grids for Oaks day and Derby day right here for one low price.  That’s every race complete with EP , Power, LP, etc just as you see above, with comments in all those boxes you see with red markers in the corner.

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Also, stay tuned for more Derby lessons because there are more coming out today, and then Derby for Dummies guide that will be issued on Saturday.

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Good luck!

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May 5, 2022.  You’ve heard it over and again, that pace makes the race.  It is true to some varying extent in every race.  It’s obviously not the only factor of course, and the Kentucky Derby is a much different type of race than most run in North America. It’s 10f on dirt with 20 horses in the gate.

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The pace scenario can be estimated using the Running Styles and Quirin Speed points, but it can vary sometimes wildly from what is predicted.  Therefore we must make an educated guess as to how the race will unfold. 

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For this exercise we will use the subsections of the Kentucky Derby Grid concerning the running styles and speed points, and as a bonus the composites of early and late pace.  Take a look. Open pic in new tab to enlarge.

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What you always do first is look at who exhibits early speed the most using the ST column.  8 is the earliest runner and 0 being the latest possible runner, normally a plodder.   You can see right away that we have a good deal of early speed scheduled.  

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There are three E/EP8’s, 3 E/EP7’s, and 4 EP6’s.  In fact, I can make a case for Charge It being a EP7 or E8 as well, because he hit the gate last out which is likely the only reason he didn’t have the lead at 1C. 

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The E style means that horse wants to go to the lead and if he doesn’t get the lead, he won’t win, and normally doesn’t win at longer distances anyway.  Classic Causeway and Summer is Tomorrow are such horses. 

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Others in this group of 10 early runners have show the ability to not actually set the pace, then make a move or attempt to later.  The only 8 that I would say can actually win the roses is Messier, because he could rate just off the pace a bit and still win.  The other 8’s usually fade.

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However, on paper this has to be considered a hotly contested pace, meaning that most of these early/front runners could burn it up on the front end and flame out.  This could open up good opportunities for those who run in mid pack or towards the rear.

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Mo Donegal is one that has shown repeated ability to run from behind with a good closing move, as evidenced by his sweeping Wood G1 win and top LP rating.   Zandon has 2^nd best LP and has a similar running style, enabling him to take the Blue Grass G1 last out. That’s why he’s the ML favorite.

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A fast pace could also benefit the other P and S type runners if they can sustain a good late pace over this distance.  Barber Road, for example with unimpressive PF’s, found himself in the top 2 or 3 at the wire in 5 consecutive stakes races.  Smile Happy wasn’t far behind in 2^nd in his preps this year.

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At least one of the plodders will finish in the top 4 and probably two of them.  When looking for a good true long shot to fill in the superfecta, which almost always happens, you can use a strong late runner to fill that bill, because that’s usually the horse that does it.

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Those who had a strong final ¼ mile in their final prep race, or in another previous race for that matter, are usually good suspects to make a late run.  As luck would have it, you’ve been provided final ¼ times in the last prep race for each horse.  Anything less than 25 seconds is considered strong in that column.

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The full Kentucky Derby Grid has all this and dozens of other performance and historical items to factor in.  You should definitely check it out if you haven’t before, but stay tuned for more Derby Lessons on Friday and Saturday, because those are all free and if you pay attention you might learn something.

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May 5 2022.  The Derby Lesson Series continues with issue 22-02 regarding the jockey and trainer connections and what kind of impact they have on a Kentucky Derby performance.  First let’s take a look at an extraction from our Triple Crown Master Database.

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You may not be surprised to find many repeat offenders in the jockey and trainer columns.  For example, the names John Velazquez, Victor Espinoza, Bob Baffert, and Todd Pletcher appear a lot.  

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In fact, by far a majority of Kentucky Derby editions in the past 25 years have been jockey or trainer repeats. You might also be surprised to see that Wayne Lukas trained his first of many Derby champions 34 years ago, and in fact has a horse in the 2022 edition.

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What does it all mean?  Is it because these jockeys and trainers are better than everyone, or do they just get the best horses to enter?  It’s the age old chicken and egg question.  The truth is that it’s a combination of the above.  They get the best horses to train and ride because they’re at the top of the profession.

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The great thing about the Derby Grid is that it has all this information, and much more, in it.  For example you’ll see in this extraction of data from the spreadsheet version of the Grid, little markers in the corners of the cells.  When you click or hover on the cell, you see additional embedded information.

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For example, the horse name cell contains the horses’ owner, silks colors, date of birth, lifetime record and earnings.  The Sire column comments include the grandsire, dam, and damsire, and who and where the horse was bred. 

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The trainer and jockey cells in the Derby Grid contain the Triple Crown race record of each.  Let’s see what this looks like when expanded.

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For the purposes of this exercise, we are treating the Yakteen trainees as Baffert trainees, for very legitimate reasons.  They were issued to Baffert for training to begin with because they are high class horses.  But Baffert had to transfer them to his former assistant trainer (or somebody else he trusts) in order to even earn Kentucky Derby points, because the Derby organization has him suspended.

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Interestingly enough, the rules of the suspension do not preclude the two trainers from talking to each other, over the phone or in person, or even going out to Jeff Ruby Steaks and enjoying some great food and drink.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see them there this week, but I guarantee they’re talking daily.

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To emphasize the best thoroughbred trainer in history getting the best horses, consider that Taiba was a whopping $1.7 million dollar yearling at auction, almost 4 times the next nearest auction price, which was stablemate Messier.  Taiba has lived up to it so far, taking the Santa Anita Derby in his second career race, leaving Messier and others in the dust.

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There’s a lot of info to digest here, and I will be giving grades to these in the final lesson Derby for Dummies. But I can guarantee you two things:  The 2 trainers and 2 jockeys that have never Run for the Roses, won’t touch any purse money.  And the winner will be a repeat trainer and/or jockey.

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The Kentucky Derby Grid has all of this information and more than 80 historical and performance factors, and final rankings on such if you desire. Or you can just stay tuned to Derby Lessons, get most of the information, and await the Derby for Dummies on Saturday if I can even get to it.  3-4 more lessons need to be crammed in before that.

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May 3, 2022.  Performance figures can be used to handicap any race, including the Kentucky Derby, so why not use them this weekend?  No good reason I can think of. Of course, there are many other methods, criteria and qualifications to win The Derby.  Which is why you should get the Derby Grid.

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Get the Full Kentucky Derby Grid here with over 80 historical and critical performance criteria.

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But PF’s are by far the most popular way to cap any race. What if you were to get the average of 4 of the leading speed figures (including the PF’s from the Grid) for each of the past 4 races for each contender?  That would be nice.  Then maybe you could also average those after dropping the lowest of the past 4.

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Well in fact, that’s just what’s done for you here below.  You’re welcome.

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See any major overlays there? I see one glaring one whose name starts with a T and won the Santa Anita Derby. I see another one whose name starts with an M who has very similar criteria coming out of Santa Anita.  Could those two sweep the Derby exacta also?

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The prevailing PF’s all seem to agree that those two have the best pair of PF’s in the last 2 races. They also seem to agree that the Wood performance by Mo Donegal was very solid.  Others with triple digit average PF’s like Epicenter and Zozos appear to be legit.

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Wait, what are all these colors and what does bold mean?  There’s a free Grid learning page here just for those type of questions. http://www.horseracebetwin.com/picks/learning/  Remember, there’s no such thing as a stupid question, just stupid people who ask questions.

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In short for this exercise, Bold means within ½ furlong of the Derby distance, which is 10f, or 1 ¼ mile for those of you who don’t speak horse racing. Blue means artificial / polytrack surface.  For example, I have a hard time making a case for Tiz the Bomb until I see him post that triple digit on dirt.

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And by the way, what’s wrong with a Asmussen/Baffert/Pletcher exacta and trifecta box anyway?  Sounds good to me. Oh, you say Baffert doesn’t have any trainees in the race.  You just proved how ignorant you are.  Don’t tell anyone you said that.

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Stay tuned for all of the free Derby Lesson series this week right here, they even have their own menu entry.

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Get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races every week right here.

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Saturday April 30.  Churchill Downs begins its legendary summer meet this weekend, just one week out from the Kentucky Derby.  The meet will last until July 4 and feature over 50 stakes races.  The track will be charted out this weekend in preparation for the big Derby weekend.

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Get the full 2022 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria! 

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So it’s Saturday night and you’re still hanging around, tired of living in your one horse town? Take a virtual trip to Louisville, a town with hundreds of horses racing every week.  Racing today begins at 6PM ET with the final race scheduled for 10:42PM so you’ll have great entertainment all night.

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Weather in Louisville is warm and cloudy, with a chance of thunderstorms increasing towards the end of the race schedule, so don’t be surprised if they start moving races up.  The first thing you’ll want to do is get today’s free Churchill Grid so you can make your picks. 

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The next thing you’ll want to do is to reference some of our long shot specials listed below to incorporate into your picks.

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R2 6:28ET 6f D Clm 8000 4 UP 

1 Deano 5-1

6 Benjamins 10-1

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R7 9:05ET 8.5f D Md 30000 3 UP 

9 Levee 8-1

11 Hold the Line 15-1

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R8 9:39ET 5.5f T OClm 62500n2x 3 UP FM

9 Spicy 8-1

12 Richies 12-1

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R9 10:11ET 6f D RoxelanaB160k 4 UP FM

3 horse race literally. Ugh

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R10 10:42ET 7f D Md 10000 3 UP 

8 Toddy 10-1

14 Me we 15-1

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Time to go work out your wagers. I wouldn’t bet any exotics on the 6 horse races but taking a good contender at 5-1 or more is always a good play.  The longer fields at the end of the card make it interesting.  Get your horseshoes on!

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You can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races, as well as the Kentucky Derby Grid, right here. So check out the options and good luck!