Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, April 17.  Oaklawn Park will run the fabled Grade 1 Apple Blossom stakes for fillies and mares. as the featured event on the 12 race card which also includes the G2 Oaklawn Handicap for males 4up, and a nice MSW3 worth 93k. 

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For this precap we’re going to cover the featured stakes races, the MSW, and some other select races as I see fit.  The initial track is listed as muddy but there is almost no chance of rain today so it should dry out as we go along.  Download the free Oaklawn grid to follow along.

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R11 7:09ET 8.5f D AplBlsmH-G1 4 UP FM

Unfortunately, as has become the norm for big dirt races, there is only a short field of 6.  One probable reason for it this time is that the heavy favorite Monomoy Girl has never been beaten, and after a 1.5 year hiatus came back to continue winning in the BC Distaff.  She’s won on muddy tracks, including this one last out, but the dry track suits her best.

How do you get around her? You don’t.  To round out the super it looks like Swiss Skyiver, Letruska, and Getridofwhatailesu, in other words exact morning line order, and probable exact post time order.  Horrible betting race.

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R9 5:49ET 9f D OaklawnH-G2 4 UP 

At least we get 8 entries in this one, and only 3 of them won’t win.  Unfortunately the 5 contenders are all those with single digits.  Normally I just go with top LP in 9f races, except when there are only 3 horses with any early running tendencies. 

The earliest runner on average is Warrior’s Charge at 6-1, so that will serve as my top choice here.  His past 2 at this distance were 2^nd place in graded stakes, including this race last year.  He’s worth a win bet at anything more than 4-1.

The other early runners, Silver State and Express Train, would fill out my exacta box if I actually deem it worthy to bet at post time.  Then throw in top late runner Fearless and top power Owendale for the tri and super.  But you know, it may just not be worth betting.

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R8 5:09ET 8.5f D MSW 3 YO  93000

Again only 8 horses and looks quite chalky. I’d be surprised if at least 2 of the top 3 ML choices don’t finish in the tri, but I like Stiletto Boy to win it as does the oddsmaker.  He will simply be hard to catch.

But I’d also be surprised if one of the longshots doesn’t weave their way into the tri or super.  These are after all 3yo’s that can take large jumps up in class at any time, as we’ve seen many times this year.  James Madison?

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R4 2:42ET 6f D Md 30000 3 UP 

Scanning the rest of the grid for some value, another maiden race comes up.  New Dice 15-1 is tied for the highest PF and finished 2^nd 2 in a row. English Colony at 20-1 could make some noise but not sure why an English Channel gelding isn’t going on turf.

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R2 1:35ET 6f D Md 20000 3 UP FM

Yet another maiden race pops up.  3 close 2^nd’s in 3 career races would imply Tallandlong will probably win this time out. But you need more than one horse for a trifecta and super, and the rest of it is somewhat wide open.  Throw in Merlin’s Sister at 30-1 for some added excitement with the 1^st timer.

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That’s all the value possibilities I see today, as in anything that is or will go off at 5-1 or better.  Try to make something happen with the vertical wagers and hope for some of the 4-1 or 5-1 shots to get in there for some value. Good luck!

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Now is a great time to join the Weekend Winners Club, where you can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks every race day.  Just one month access (cancel anytime) would get you thru the Derby and Preakness and everything in between.  Check out the options right here.

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Friday April 9. Keeneland racing has a big card as far as Fridays go, with two stakes races including the Grade 1 Makers’ Mark Mile to highlight the 10 race card.  In addition, the TVG Super 5 today is comprised of races 6-10 at Keeneland, all of which we’ll break down.

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Before we go on, I should mention that this is a great time to join the Weekend Winners’ Club.  For just one month of service you will get the Grid for all your favorite tracks every race day, including the big race days at Keeneland and Oaklawn Saturday, and other major race days thru the Kentucky Oaks and Derby.  You can do that right here.

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On with the analysis.  We will analyze races 6-10 so that one of you will win the Super 5 and then tell us how great the Grid is.  Believe it or not, I’ve never got more than 4 of 5, because you only get 1 pick per race which makes it difficult.  Download today’s free Keeneland Grid to follow along

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R6 3:51ET 8.5f D OClm 62500n2x 4 UP FM SUP5

This race begins the Super 5.  I like Movie Moxy over Spice is Nice, primarily because she’s run this year and not poorly, but it’s hard to go against Pletcher, 8 month layoff or not.  It’s kind of a toss up at this point.  Late runners are doing well even on dirt sprints, so at route Maedean looks good too.

Prediction:  1 5 4 6

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R7 4:24ET 5.5f T MBS LmstnTSptB100k 3 YO F

This is a money back special race with TVG, meaning you can bet $10 to win and get it back if your horse runs top 3.  At 5.5f, you have to go with speed.  Campanelle is a legit favorite, winning first out, then the Queen Mary at Ascot and a G1. She wasn’t bad in the BCJFT at 8f either.

But also Toby’s Heart won first out, and 2^nd out in a stakes race, not faring too well at a mile after that.  And despite the S1 running style, has the 2^nd highest EP rating, one point behind the fav.  She also has the highest PF in the field, achieved on her debut race.  V dangerous.  We don’t know what Campanelle’s European PF’s are.

Prediction:  8 7 9 6 4 1

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R8 4:57ET 6.5f D Alw 81000n1x 4 UP 

Plenty of speed slated for this one so I have to go with the top 3 late runners:  Aloha West, Answer In, and Schmoozin, who’s coupled with Wild Behavior so you get 2 for 1 chances on that one.  Gozilla has the top EP speed but I’m seeing late runners taking over today on dirt.

Prediction:  3 5 1/1a 2 6

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R9 5:30ET 8f T MkrsMkMl-G1 4 UP  MBS

Another money back special race.  On turf routes I always like late runners and top LP, except when there’s almost no speed as in this one.  So here I like Somelikeithotbrown, a name made for Kentucky.  He has top EP by a lot, and might not be caught. Cutting back to the 8f distance which is perfect for him.

Sacred Life will be heavily bet with high Power and 2^nd best LP.  Ride a Comet will get some attention with high LP and good PF’s at this distance.  I think Raging Bull will be too late to the party. Watch out for inside speed Get Smokin to hit the board.

Prediction:  3 4 6 8 1 9

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R10 6:03ET 7f D MSW 3 YO F 79000

The last race is an 8 filly maiden contest, after scratches, with a couple first timers.  Therefore anything can happen.  On paper it looks like it’s between favorites Caramel Swan and Front Street, both of which have recent PF’s in the high 80s. 

Red Hot and Blue and Musical Cat both had nice debuts with the latter having an attractive morning line of 12-1.  Mo Dean is coached by Chad Brown and she will get action as well.

Prediction:  9 5 1 7 2

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That’s it for today.  Good luck!

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Remember to look over your options to join the WWC if you like the Grid today.

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Saturday April 3, 2021.  Keeneland opening weekend rolls on in style today with 6 graded stakes races featuring the Blue Grass G2 and preceded by the Appalachian G2, Commonwealth G3, Shakertown G2, Ashland G1, and Madison G1.  There are also 4 other 3yo races on the card making it 7 total for 3yo’s.

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For the sake of not taking up 5 pages we’ll just break down the graded races.  First you’ll want to download today’s free grid here and follow along.  If you notice horses missing, the morning scratches have already been processed.  Weather is sunny and cool with a high of 60.

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Race 11:  Blue Grass G2 for 3yo’s at 9f.  There is absolutely no early speed in this race.  Only 2 of the 9 horses have more than 2 Quirin points and none of them has ever led at 1^st call.  Two of them have led by the half but you would expect one of the favorites to lead by 2C.

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Essential Quality at 3-5 is not an attractive wager, but he showed early tendencies in his 2 races where the pace was dawdling.  Regardless he won all 4 races including the BC Juvenile G1 and Breeders Futurity G1 both at this track last year for Brad Cox and Luis Saez.

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Highly Motivated at 3-1 ML will give him a run for the money and will also be expected to be near the pace.  He has the highest PF in the field of 97, achieved in a sprint right here at Keeneland where he set a track record.  He also has the high EP rating and some trainer named Chad Brown.  Castellano mounts.

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If nobody else moves early, it will be a match race between the two favorites.  So here’s where it gets interesting.

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Untreated at 10-1 moved to Pletcher’s barn and broke his maiden in style last out at Tampa on the Tampa Derby day, winning by 8+ lengths under a hand ride by Saez, taking the lead at the half after a suspect pace.  Rosario will ride today and he will probably stick close to the pace especially if it dawdles.

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Keepmeinmind at 8-1 is the next logical choice, having finished only 2 lengths back in the BC Juve,  where he achieved the 3^rd highest PF in the field, following that up with a KYJC G2 win at Churchill.  He has high LP and Diodoro’s barn is doing well, despite a poor effort last out at Oaklawn.

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Hidden Stash 20-1 broke his maiden here at Keenland last year.  If he repeats the effort last out as runner up in the Tampa Bay Derby, he should hit the board for Victoria Oliver.  Bejarano was up for the last race and both of his wins, so that also bodes well.

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Hush of a Storm at 15-1 looks like a good long shot after winning his last 3, but those were all on poly after his first race on dirt which was a disaster.  I assume there’s a reason Morey has had him on the artificial surface other than just keeping him in Kentucky, but he could surprise.

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Leblon at 50-1 would be a great super long shot special if there were any early pace scheduled in this, but once again it looks like he won’t get any pace to run at.  Lobo might give instructions to move him early.  The same could be said for most of the field but this one is tied for high LP.

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Prediction:  4 3 2 1 9, or 4 3 then whoever wants to press the pace.

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Race 10 Madison G1 for 4up females 7f dirt.  Again, not much pace slated for this 7 horse race.  There’s only one early runner and a slew of presser style racers.

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The chalk is legit, especially Sconsin and Bell’s the One, but it could be a repeat of the contest 3 back where Mundaye Call 8-1 got out to an uncontested lead. 

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Prediction:  3 4 6 1

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Race 9 Ashland G1 3yo fillies 8.5f dirt.  Too bad there’s only 6 fillies running in this one, but there are several stakes winners to make it interesting.

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Simply Ravishing at 5-2 could end up the post favorite.  All she needs to do is repeat any of her last 3 races with Saez aboard as he is today, including a G1 win here and a close 4^th in the BCJF.  Kenny McPeek is not satisfied with the 4^th place effort last out.

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Malathaat 9-5 is the ML favorite after winning all 3 career races including a G2, all in New York.  Todd now has her here no doubt aiming for the Kentucky Oaks next month.  Rosario solidifies the entry.

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Pass the Champagne at 4-1 just broke maiden last out at Gulfstream but the PF earned puts her in the running here.

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Prediction:  3 5 2, and a poor betting race.

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Race 8 Shakertown G2 5.5f on turf.   This one will be over before you know it, as the chances of it lasting more than 1:02 are very slim, especially with a big field of 13 packed with speed.  It should be a good betting race.  Despite the short distance, with this much speed you have to look at LP and Power closely.

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Bound for Nowhere is the lukewarm ML favorite and has the numbers to back that up, ranking top in power.  However the 7yo hasn’t raced since last year’s Shakertown in July where he held on for 3^rd.

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Imprimis is the 2^nd choice and has 2^nd in power and good LP, backing it up with several wins.  His last run here was a disappointing outing in the BC Turf Sprint, but in 2019 he had a strong 3^rd here in the Woodford G2 at this distance.

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Kanthaka at 6-1 is likeable here because of top LP rating in the Grid.  He hasn’t had a bad race in a long time and has finished within 2 lengths of the lead in his 4 last contests, all graded races on turf.  If he gets issued the strong pace up front as predicted, he might sail by all of them in the stretch.

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Turned Aside at 6-1 also looks good in this spot and would possibly also benefit from a strong pace.  After that it’s kind of a crap shoot and we don’t know exactly how the pace will play out.

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Speaking of craps, Wayne Lukas has an interesting entry here with American Butterfly at 50-1.  The last couple times he tried a turf sprint they got taken off turf, then he ended up in a turf route, a distance way too long.  Maybe this is his day to shine.

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Prediction;  13 7 2 5 12 8

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Race 7 Commonwealth G3 4up 7f dirt.  Another short field with not a lot of early speed.  It’s hard not to like the chalk in this one either, so probably not good for betting.  Attachment Rate cutting back to 7f could deliver a devastating closing move in this one.

Prediction:  1 2 5 4 7

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Race 6 Appalachian G2 for 3yo fillies 8f on turf.  Another short field with not much early speed and the chalk is strongest.  Gift List shipping from the UK could make it interesting at 6-1.

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Race 5 is an OCM for 3yo’s.  Keep an eye on Democracy for Pletcher and One Fast Cat for Wesley Ward, both winners last out in their first career race, with PF’s that could have justified a Blue Grass run. They could be pointed to the Preakness after getting another race.

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Race 1 is an MSW for 3yo’s going 9f, the same distance as the Blue Grass.  Four others are brave enough to take on the Pletcher trainee Ghazaaly, who came up a neck short of breaking maiden last out at 9f at Gulfstream.  Danny Gargan will provide some competition with American Law.  The others don’t look good on paper, but Sug Mac and Chad Brown do well with 2^nd career races.

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That’s all the analysis for today, as racing begins in half an hour, so get to it and good luck!

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To get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and race days, get it here.

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April 2021. The thoroughbred stakes schedule for April 2021 has been updated and released, pending of course further changes due to track cancellations.

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Keeneland will be the epicenter of North American racing as usual with their legendary one-month meet leading up to the Kentucky Derby, kicking off in style with the Blue Grass Stakes the first weekend in April.

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2021 April Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan

Race	Track	Date	Purse	Age/Sex	Dist	Surf	Fee/Close
Distaff H (G3)	Aqu	4/2	$150k g	4&up f/m	7f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 20.
Beaumont Presented by Keeneland Select (G3)	Kee	4/2	$150k g	3yo f	abt 7f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 17.
Kentucky Utilities Transylvania S (G3T)	Kee	4/2	$150k g	3yo	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 17.
Palisades Turf Sprint	Kee	4/2	$100k g	3yo	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 17.
Arizona Stallion S	TuP	4/2	$30k a	3yo S	8f	Dirt	Not Available
Bay Shore S (G3)	Aqu	4/3	$200k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 20.
Carter H (G1)	Aqu	4/3	$300k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 20.
Excelsior S (G3)	Aqu	4/3	$150k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 20.
Gazelle S (G3)	Aqu	4/3	$250k g	3yo f	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 20.
Wood Memorial Presented by Resorts World Casino (G2)	Aqu	4/3	$750k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 20.
Baxter S	Fon	4/3	$15k a	3yo	6f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 27.
Bayou City S	Hou	4/3	$75k g	3yo	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 24.
Bucharest S	Hou	4/3	$75k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 24.
Miss Houston Turf S	Hou	4/3	$75k g	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 24.
Lord Derby Challenge Trophy (G3T)	JRA	4/3	$808k a	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 9.
Appalachian S Presented by Japan Racing Association (G2T)	Kee	4/3	$200k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 17.
Central Bank Ashland S (G1)	Kee	4/3	$400k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 17.
Commonwealth S (G3)	Kee	4/3	$200k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 17.
Madison S (G1)	Kee	4/3	$300k g	4&up f/m	7f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 17.
Shakertown S (G2T)	Kee	4/3	$200k g	3&up	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 17.
Toyota Blue Grass S (G2)	Kee	4/3	$800k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 17.
Fantasy S (G3)	OP	4/3	$600k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 18.
Purple Martin S	OP	4/3	$200k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 18.
Echo Eddie S	SA	4/3	$150k g	3yo S	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 25.
Evening Jewel S	SA	4/3	$150k g	3yo f S	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 25.
Providencia S (G3T)	SA	4/3	$100k g	3yo f	9f	Turf	Closed on Mar 25.
Royal Heroine S (G2T)	SA	4/3	$200k g	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 25.
Runhappy Santa Anita Derby (G1)	SA	4/3	$750k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 25.
Santa Anita Oaks (G2)	SA	4/3	$400k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 25.
Osaka Hai (G1T)	JRA	4/4	$2,443k a	4&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Feb 9.
Las Flores S (G3)	SA	4/4	$100k g	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 25.
Maker's Mark Mile (G1T)	Kee	4/9	$300k g	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 24.
TVG Limestone Turf Sprint	Kee	4/9	$100k g	3yo f	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 24.
Wildcat S	TuP	4/9	$30k g	3&up	11f	Turf	Not Available
Danger's Hour S	Aqu	4/10	$100k g	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 27.
Top Flight Invitational	Aqu	4/10	$100k g	4&up f/m	9f	Dirt	Not Available
Dowd Mile S	Fon	4/10	$20k a	3&up	8f	Dirt	$0/Apr 2
Runza S	Fon	4/10	$15k a	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr 2
Hanshin Himba S (G2T)	JRA	4/10	$1,135k a	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 23.
New Zealand Trophy (G2T)	JRA	4/10	$1,120k a	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 23.
Ben Ali S (G3)	Kee	4/10	$150k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 24.
Coolmore Jenny Wiley S (G1T)	Kee	4/10	$300k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 24.
Giant's Causeway S	Kee	4/10	$100k g	3&up f/m	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Mar 24.
Stonestreet Lexington S (G3)	Kee	4/10	$200k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 24.
My Lady's Manor Timber S	Mon	4/10	$30k g	5&up	24f	Turf	Closed on Mar 29.
Cheryl S. White Memorial S	MVR	4/10	$75k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 31
Howard B. Noonan S	MVR	4/10	$75k g	3yo S	6f	Dirt	$50/Mar 31
Arkansas Derby (G1)	OP	4/10	$1,000k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 25.
Carousel	OP	4/10	$250k g	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 25.
Count Fleet Sprint H (G3)	OP	4/10	$500k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 25.
Oaklawn Mile	OP	4/10	$400k g	4&up	8f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 25.
Mizdirection S	SA	4/10	$75k a	4&up f/m	6f	Turf	$0/Apr 1
Plenty of Grace S	Aqu	4/11	$100k g	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 27.
Oka Sho (Japanese One Thousand Guineas) (G1T)	JRA	4/11	$2,160k a	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 23.
Wilma Mankiller S	WRD	4/12	$50k g	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 31
Highland Ice S	WRD	4/13	$50k g	3&up c/g	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr 1
Baird Doubledogdare S (G3)	Kee	4/16	$100k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	$100/Mar 31
Rainbow Miss S	OP	4/16	$150k g	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr 1
Rainbow S	OP	4/16	$150k g	3yo S	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr 1
New York Stallion S (Times Square Div.)	Aqu	4/17	$200k g	3yo R	6.5f	Dirt	$200/Apr 3
Woodhaven S	Aqu	4/17	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	Turf	$100/Apr 3
Grand National Timber	But	4/17	$30k g	5&up	26f	Turf	$75/Apr 5
Original Gold S	CT	4/17	$50k g	3&up f/m S	7f	Dirt	$50/Apr 7
Fonner Park Special S	Fon	4/17	$15k a	3yo c/g S	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr 10
Fonner Park Special S	Fon	4/17	$15k a	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr 10
Arlington Cup (G3T)	JRA	4/17	$780k a	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 23.
Elkhorn S (G2T)	Kee	4/17	$200k g	4&up	12f	Turf	$100/Mar 31
Dahlia S	Lrl	4/17	$100k g	3&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	$0/Apr 3
Federico Tesio S	Lrl	4/17	$125k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	$0/Apr 3
Frank Y. Whiteley S	Lrl	4/17	$100k g	3&up	7f	Dirt	$0/Apr 3
Henry S. Clark S	Lrl	4/17	$100k g	3&up	8.5f	Turf	$0/Apr 3
King T. Leatherbury S	Lrl	4/17	$100k g	3&up	5.5f	Turf	$0/Apr 3
Primonetta S	Lrl	4/17	$100k g	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr 3
Weber City Miss S	Lrl	4/17	$125k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Apr 3
Apple Blossom H (G1)	OP	4/17	$1,000k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	$100/Apr 1
Oaklawn H (G2)	OP	4/17	$1,000k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	$100/Apr 1
Californian S (G2)	SA	4/17	$200k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	$100/Apr 8
Memories of Silver S	Aqu	4/18	$100k g	3yo f	8.5f	Turf	$100/Apr 3
New York Stallion S (Park Avenue Div.)	Aqu	4/18	$200k g	3yo f R	6.5f	Dirt	$200/Apr 3
Antares S (G3)	JRA	4/18	$737k a	4&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 23.
Satsuki Sho (Japanese Two Thousand Guineas) (G1T)	JRA	4/18	$2,273k a	3yo	10f	Turf	Closed on Feb 23.
Kona Gold S (G3)	SA	4/18	$100k g	3&up	6.5f	Dirt	$100/Apr 8
Tokyo City Cup (G3)	SA	4/18	$100k g	4&up	12f	Dirt	$100/Apr 8
Bluebonnet S	LS	4/22	$75k g	3&up f/m S	6.5f	Dirt	$0/Apr 14
Affirmed Success S	Bel	4/23	$100k g	4&up S	6f	Dirt	$100/Apr 10
Bewitch S (G3T)	Kee	4/23	$150k g	4&up f/m	12f	Turf	$100/Apr 7
Ann Owens Distaff S	TuP	4/23	$30k g	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Dwight D. Patterson S	TuP	4/23	$30k g	3&up S	8.5f	Turf	Not Available
Gene Fleming Breeders' Derby	TuP	4/23	$50k g	3yo S	8.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Joanne Dye Breeders' Oaks	TuP	4/23	$35k a	3yo f S	6.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Lyman and Bradley Rollins S	TuP	4/23	$30k g	3&up S	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Elusive Quality S	Bel	4/24	$100k g	4&up	7f	Turf	$100/Apr 10
William Walker	CD	4/24	$125k g	3yo	5.5f	Turf	$125/Apr 10
Confucius Say S	CT	4/24	$50k g	3&up S	7f	Dirt	$50/Apr 14
Bosselman Pump and Pantry/Gus Fonner S	Fon	4/24	$75k a	3&up	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Apr 14
California Derby	GG	4/24	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	AW	$50/Apr 15
California Oaks	GG	4/24	$75k g	3yo f	8.5f	AW	$50/Apr 15
Camilla Urso	GG	4/24	$75k g	4&up f/m	5f	Turf	$50/Apr 15
Golden Poppy	GG	4/24	$75k g	3&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	$50/Apr 15
Lost in the Fog	GG	4/24	$75k g	4&up	6f	AW	$50/Apr 15
San Francisco Mile (G3T)	GG	4/24	$250k g	3&up	8f	Turf	$50/Apr 15
Maryland Hunt Cup Timber	Gln	4/24	$60k g	5&up	32f	Turf	Closed on Mar 8.
Fukushima Himba S (G3T)	JRA	4/24	$780k a	4&up f/m	9f	Turf	Closed on Mar 9.
Bachelor S	OP	4/24	$200k g	3yo	6f	Dirt	$0/Apr 8
Crystal Water S	SA	4/24	$100k g	3&up S	8f	Turf	$100/Apr 15
Santa Margarita S (G2)	SA	4/24	$200k g	4&up f/m	8f	Dirt	$100/Apr 15
Russell & Helen Foutz Distaff	SuR	4/24	$40k a	3&up f/m S	6.5f	Dirt	$200/Apr 9
License Fee S	Bel	4/25	$100k g	4&up f/m	6f	Turf	$100/Apr 10
Campanile S	GG	4/25	$75k g	3yo f S	8f	Turf	$50/Apr 16
Silky Sullivan	GG	4/25	$75k g	3yo S	8f	Turf	$50/Apr 16
Flora S (G2T)	JRA	4/25	$1,072k a	3yo f	10f	Turf	Closed on Mar 9.
Yomiuri Milers Cup (G2T)	JRA	4/25	$1,221k a	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 9.
Singletary S	SA	4/25	$100k g	3yo	8f	Turf	$100/Apr 15
Isaac Murphy Marathon S	CD	4/27	$120k a	4&up	12f	Dirt	$0/Apr 10
Kentucky Juvenile S	CD	4/28	$125k g	2yo	5f	Dirt	$125/Apr 10
Opening Verse S	CD	4/29	$120k a	4&up	8f	Turf	$0/Apr 10
Unbridled Sydney S	CD	4/29	$150k g	3&up f/m	5.5f	Turf	$150/Apr 10
Flat Out	Bel	4/30	$100k g	4&up	11f	Dirt	$100/Apr 17
Alysheba S (G2)	CD	4/30	$400k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	$300/Apr 10
Edgewood S (G2T)	CD	4/30	$300k g	3yo f	8.5f	Turf	$300/Apr 10
Eight Belles Presented by Smithfield (G2)	CD	4/30	$300k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	$300/Apr 10
La Troienne S (G1)	CD	4/30	$500k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	$300/Apr 10
Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1)	CD	4/30	$1,250k g	3yo f	9f	Dirt	$1,500/Apr 10
Twin Spires Turf Sprint Presented by Sysco (G2T)	CD	4/30	$250k g	3&up	5.5f	Turf	$250/Apr 10
Arkansas Breeders' Championship	OP	4/30	$200k g	3&up S	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Apr 15

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Saturday, March 6, Tampa Bay Downs will host 5 stakes races today, 3 graded, highlighted by the Tampa Bay Derby.  Before that, the Florida Oaks, Hillsborough, Columbia, and Challenger Stakes will fill out a great race card for Saturday.  Racing starts at 12:17 so hurry up!

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Kentucky Derby preps and other big stakes racing are going on at Aqueduct and Santa Anita,today, including the Big Cap, Kilroe Mile, Tom Fool, and other great races. Click here to get the Grid for all tracks.

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Unlike other major tracks, Tampa has 10 or more entries in each stakes race except for the Challenger, a 5 horse contest for older horses.  The weather is scheduled to be rainy on and off today, but who cares? Only connections are allowed at the track and you’re watching online or on TV anyway.  

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First, get the free Grid today to follow along.  Remember, the track will likely range from muddy to sloppy for most of the afternoon, and the non stakes races will likely be taken off turf. Also, pay special attention to the past performance numbers listed in black, which indicates a muddy/sloppy track.

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Let’s break down the stakes races and maybe a couple more to help you out today, starting with the featured race and working backwards.

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Tampa Bay Derby race 11 5:25 ET.  Candy Man Rocket is the favorite, strong in his last 2 including a win here in the Sam F Davis G3 last out.  He’s currently 30-1 in the Derby Futures Pool, but that could go down with an impressive victory today.

My 2^nd choice is Promise Keeper, who opened up by 5 to break his maiden last out on a sloppy track at Gulfstream, earning him the 2^nd best PF in the field.  His 8-1 ML will likely end up at 3 or 4 to 1.

Hidden Stash is my 3^rd pick and ML 2^nd choice at 4-1.  It looked like he was allowed to lollygag too far back in the Davis, but that kind of problem should be rectified with Bejarano back aboard.

Helium 6-1 ships from Canada for Mark Casse, beginning his career with 2 straight polytrack wins including a stakes at Woodbine.  His first on dirt and route but he looks strong.

Super Strong 8-1 debuted with a win at Cameroon for Saffie Joseph, who apparently trains south of the border as well.  I have a feeling he’ll compete in this one.

Unbridled Humor 20-1 looked like a run of the mill lollygagger in his 1^st two, then got some semblance of a decent pace to run at last out and won.  The good thing is, there looks to be plenty of pace in this one.   A wise horseman once said:  watch out for the higher priced entry of a top trainer.  Super long shot special alert!

Boca Boy gets an honorable mention at 15-1 ML.  He faded a bit in the Davis but before that enjoyed the sloppy going at Gulfstream for a $400k stakes win.

Prediction:  3 11 8 10 2 9 5             LSS (11) 2 9 5

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Florida Oaks G3 is race 10 for 3yo fillies going 8.5 on the turf.  I have no problem with the top 3 chalk as they have great credentials.  However a lot of speed looks possible in this contest so they could be compromised.

My 3^rd choice is Big Band Luzziann 20-1 not because of the name but because of a strong late run and win in her debut on turf at Gulfstream.  There should be a good pace set up for her this time. Super long shot special alert.

Mia Martina 8-1 is another strong late runner who won both her first two, and is the higher priced of the two Graham Motion entries.

Flight to Shanghai 15-1 is also an early runner, but trying first time on turf and two turns, they will certain try to rate her and with good speed she’ll be dangerous.

Be Sneaky 10-1 has about the same narrative, but she did run two turns last out on dirt, finishing 2^nd in the Suncoast Stakes here at Tampa.

Prediction:  10 2 8 3 4 11 6             LSS 8 3 4 6

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The Hillsborough G2 in race 9 for older fillies at 9f looks very intriguing with plenty of possibilities.  There are 3-4 lukewarm favorites on the morning line, any of which could be the post favorite.

On paper, there is almost no speed or pace in this one.  Only 2 have a tendency to run anywhere near early, including Myhardblongstodady and New York Girl.

My top 3 choices are all technically long shots on the ML.  La Signare, Micheline, and Miss Teheran look like they can all run at any type of pace.

It’s wide open and we’ll have to see how the soon to be yielding turf is playing and match it up with the strengths of the respective entries.

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The Columbia Stakes for 3yo on turf at 8f in race 7 looks a lot more clear cut. My super long shot special is alternate entry Blue Cat at 20-1, who I predict will win.

Prediction:  13 3 6 1 10                    LSS 13 10

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Race 6:  MSW 36000 for 3yo on dirt at 8.2f.  This bears watching because it’s 3yo’s running on the Tampa Derby undercard at a similar distance.

Oh Steve at 10-1 is my top choice after debuting at 2^nd in a 6f race with a strong late run, giving him  the 2^nd best PF in the field.

The chalk:  Dreaming of Gerry, Seminole Beach, and favored Untreated are my next 3 for obvious reasons.

Then I have Last Investment at 8-1 who sucked last out in the Davis, but was strong in a race such as this beforehand.  Son of Thudner at 6-1 and Big Venezuela at 12-1 could also compete.

Prediction:  4 3 2 8 6 1 9                  LSS 4 6 9

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For the rest of the races you’re on your own.  Download that Grid and make your picks, and good luck!

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Remember, you can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races right here.

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Friday, March 6.  Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 4 opened today and will be open until Sunday at 6pm.  The Kentucky Oaks pool is also open. The Down and Dirty Derby Double Dozen thus makes its next appearance today as an appropriate guide on raising some good long shot specials.  

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Visit Kentucky Derby Central for points leaders and Race Schedule/Results

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Note that 8 of the entries in the Futures Pool are running this Saturday in various stakes races, unless you count the field (all others) which is also by definition running in each of those stakes races.  In the Grid below, note the highlighted horses racing in: Gotham: gray, Tampa Derby: Green, San Felipe:Red.

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Kentucky Derby Pool 4 / Oaks Futures Grid

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Note that the odds lock down at the end of each betting day. For this reason it was important to get the Double Dozen and Grid out today.  For example, if you like The Great One in the San Felipe, you’ll want to get him at 50-1 today rather than whatever he goes down to after winning.

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Doug's Down and Dirty Derby Double Dozen March 5 2021

Rank	Name	Pool4	Style	HI	Sire	Trainer
1	Essential Quality	3.5	EP4	96	Tapit	Cox Brad H	96
2	Life Is Good	4	E6	96	Into Mischief	Baffert Bob	96
3	Greatest Honour	6	S0	97	Tapit	Mcgaughey Claude Iii	97
4	Highly Motivated	20	P6	97	Into Mischief	Brown Chad C	97
5	Concert Tour	20	EP6	93	Street Sense	Baffert Bob	93
6	Medina Spirit	30	E7	93	Protonico	Baffert Bob	93
6	The Great One	50	EP8	96	Nyquist	O'neill Doug	96
7	Mandaloun	15	P7	94	Into Mischief	Cox Brad H	94
8	Keepmeinmind	30	S2	93	Laoban	Diodoro Robertino	93
9	Freedom Fighter	30	E6	92	Violence	Baffert Bob	92
10	Candy Man Rocket	30	EP8	93	Candy Ride	Mott William I	93
11	Prevalence	20	E6	91	Medaglia D'Oro	Walsh Brendan P	91
12	Hot Rod Charlie	30	P3	95	Oxbow	O'neill Doug	95
13	Caddo River	15	E8	92	Hard Spun	Cox Brad H	92
14	Collaborate	30	EP4	90	Into Mischief	Joseph Saffie A Jr	90
15	Proxy	20	EP6	93	Tapit	Stidham Michael	93
16	Dream Shake	30	S4	88	Twirling Candy	Eurton Peter	88
17	Midnight Bourbon	30	E7	92	Tiznow	Asmussen Steven M	92
18	Spielberg	20	P2	96	Union Rags	Baffert Bob	96
19	Risk Taking	30	P3	92	Medaglia D'Oro	Brown Chad C	92
20	Crowded Trade	-	S1	89	More Than Ready	Brown Chad C	89
21	Promise Keeper	-	E6	91	Constitution	Pletcher Todd	91
22	Hidden Stash	-	P3	88	Constitution	Oliver Victor	88
23	Roman Centurian	50	S0	89	Empire Maker	Callaghan Simon	89
24	Rombauer	50	S0	88	Twirling Candy	Mccarthy Michael W	88

The Derby Double Dozen Top 25 is released about once per month based on objective opinion. The Kentucky Derby superfecta normally consists of horses from the top 10 in this list.

Remember, you can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and race days here.

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March 1, 2021. The new March stakes schedule for thoroughbred horse racing in North America and the Japan Racing Association has been released. Consult the sortable table below.

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March 2021 Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan.

Race	Track	Date	Purse	Age/Sex	Dist.	Surface	Fee, Due Date
Gotham S (G3)	Aqu	06-Mar	$300k g	3yo	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 20.
Busher Invitational	Aqu	06-Mar	$250k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	Not Available
Tom Fool H (G3)	Aqu	06-Mar	$200k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 20.
Heavenly Prize Invitational	Aqu	06-Mar	$125k g	4&up f/m	8f	Dirt	Not Available
Allen "Black Cat" Lacombe Memorial S	FG	06-Mar	$75k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 20.
Red Camelia S	FG	06-Mar	$60k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 20.
Ogataul S	Fon	06-Mar	$15k a	3&up S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 27.
Any Limit S	GP	06-Mar	$75k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 21.
Captiva Island	GP	06-Mar	$75k g	4&up f/m	5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 21.
Hutcheson S	GP	06-Mar	$75k g	3yo	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 21.
Ocean S (G3T)	JRA	06-Mar	$838k a	4&up	6f	Turf	Closed on Jan 12.
Tulip Sho (G2T)	JRA	06-Mar	$1,072k a	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Jan 12.
Honeybee S (G3)	OP	06-Mar	$300k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 18.
China Doll S	SA	06-Mar	$75k a	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 25.
Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1T)	SA	06-Mar	$400k g	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 25.
Santa Anita H (G1)	SA	06-Mar	$400k g	4&up	10f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 25.
San Felipe S (G2)	SA	06-Mar	$300k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 25.
San Carlos S (G2)	SA	06-Mar	$200k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 25.
Columbia S	Tam	06-Mar	$75k g	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 20.
Challenger S (G3)	Tam	06-Mar	$100k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 20.
Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2)	Tam	06-Mar	#$400k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 20.
Hillsborough S (G2T)	Tam	06-Mar	#$225k g	4&up f/m	9f	Turf	Closed on Feb 20.
Florida Oaks (G3T)	Tam	06-Mar	#$200k g	3yo f	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 20.
Biogio's Rose S	Aqu	07-Mar	$100k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 20.
Yayoi Sho (G2T)	JRA	07-Mar	$1,120k a	3yo	10f	Turf	Closed on Jan 12.
Santa Ysabel S (G3)	SA	07-Mar	$100k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 25.
Arizona Breeders' S	TuP	11-Mar	$35k a	3yo c/g S	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Arizona Breeders' S	TuP	11-Mar	$35k a	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Cotton Fitzsimmons H	TuP	12-Mar	$75k g	4&up	8f	Turf	Not Available/Mar 1
Phoenix Gold Cup	TuP	12-Mar	$75k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Not Available/Mar 1
Arizona Oaks	TuP	12-Mar	$50k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	Not Available
Turf Paradise Derby	TuP	12-Mar	$50k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Correction S	Aqu	13-Mar	$100k g	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 27.
Orphan Kist S	Fon	13-Mar	$15k a	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 6
Silks Run S	GP	13-Mar	$75k g	4&up	5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 28.
Hurricane Bertie S (G3)	GP	13-Mar	$100k g	4&up f/m	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 28.
Nakayama Himba S (G3T)	JRA	13-Mar	$737k a	4&up f/m	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 26.
Conniver S	Lrl	13-Mar	$75k g	3&up f/m S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 27.
Not For Love S	Lrl	13-Mar	$75k g	3&up S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 27.
Beyond the Wire S	Lrl	13-Mar	$100k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 27.
Harrison E. Johnson Memorial S	Lrl	13-Mar	$100k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 27.
Private Terms S	Lrl	13-Mar	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 27.
Essex H	OP	13-Mar	$500k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 25.
Azeri S (G2)	OP	13-Mar	$350k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 25.
Hot Springs S	OP	13-Mar	$200k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 25.
Temperence Hill S	OP	13-Mar	$150k g	4&up	12f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 25.
Rebel S (G2)	OP	13-Mar	$1,000k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 25.
Beholder Mile (G1)	SA	13-Mar	$300k g	4&up f/m	8f	Dirt	$100/Mar 4
San Simeon S (G3T)	SA	13-Mar	$100k g	4&up	6f	Turf	$100/Mar 4
Damon Runyon S	Aqu	14-Mar	$100k g	3yo S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 27.
Kinko Sho (G2T)	JRA	14-Mar	$1,383k a	4&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Jan 26.
Fillies' Revue (G3T)	JRA	14-Mar	$1,072k a	3yo f	7f	Turf	Closed on Jan 26.
Irish O'Brien S	SA	14-Mar	$100k g	4&up f/m S	6f	Turf	$100/Mar 4
Cactus Flower S	TuP	19-Mar	$30k g	4&up f/m	6.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Cactus Wren S	TuP	19-Mar	$30k g	4&up	6.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Cicada S	Aqu	20-Mar	$100k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	$100/Mar 6
Costa Rising S	FG	20-Mar	$75k g	3&up S	5.5f	Turf	$0/Mar 6
Crescent City Derby	FG	20-Mar	$75k g	3yo S	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Mar 6
Crescent City Oaks	FG	20-Mar	$75k g	3yo f S	8.32f	Dirt	$0/Mar 6
New Orleans Classic (G2)	FG	20-Mar	$400k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	$400/Mar 6
TwinSpires.com Fair Grounds Oaks (G2)	FG	20-Mar	$400k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	$400/Mar 6
Muniz Memorial Classic (G2T)	FG	20-Mar	$300k g	4&up	9f	Turf	$300/Mar 6
Tom Benson Memorial S	FG	20-Mar	$100k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	$100/Mar 6
TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2)	FG	20-Mar	$1,000k g	3yo	9.5f	Dirt	$1,000/Mar 6
Budweiser-Tondi S	Fon	20-Mar	$20k a	3&up	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 13
Melody of Colors	GP	20-Mar	$75k g	3yo f	5f	Turf	$0/Mar 7
Texas Glitter S	GP	20-Mar	$75k g	3yo	5f	Turf	$0/Mar 7
Bara Lass S	Hou	20-Mar	$100k g	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 10
Groovy S	Hou	20-Mar	$100k g	3yo S	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 10
Richard King Turf S	Hou	20-Mar	$100k g	4&up S	9f	Turf	$0/Mar 10
San Jacinto Turf S	Hou	20-Mar	$100k g	4&up f/m S	8.5f	Turf	$0/Mar 10
Spirit of Texas S	Hou	20-Mar	$100k g	4&up S	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 10
Star of Texas S	Hou	20-Mar	$100k g	4&up S	8f	Dirt	$0/Mar 10
Yellow Rose S	Hou	20-Mar	$100k g	4&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 10
Falcon S (G3T)	JRA	20-Mar	$780k a	3yo	7f	Turf	Closed on Jan 26.
Flower Cup (G2T)	JRA	20-Mar	$721k a	3yo f	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 26.
Southern Park S	MVR	20-Mar	$75k g	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	$50/Mar 10
Gazebo S	OP	20-Mar	$150k g	3yo	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 4
San Luis Rey S (G3T)	SA	20-Mar	$100k g	4&up	12f	Turf	$100/Mar 11
Haynesfield S	Aqu	21-Mar	$100k g	4&up S	8f	Dirt	$100/Mar 6
Hanshin Daishoten (G2T)	JRA	21-Mar	$1,383k a	4&up	15f	Turf	Closed on Jan 26.
Spring S (G2T)	JRA	21-Mar	$1,120k a	3yo	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 26.
Sensational Star S	SA	21-Mar	$100k g	4&up S	6f	Turf	$100/Mar 11
Caixa Eletronica	Aqu	27-Mar	$80k g	4&up R	7f	Dirt	$50/Mar 20
Stud Muffin	Aqu	27-Mar	$75k g	4&up R	11f	Dirt	$50/Mar 20
Xtra Heat S	Aqu	27-Mar	$75k g	4&up f/m R	6.5f	Dirt	$50/Mar 20
Peeping Tom S	Aqu	27-Mar	$70k g	4&up R	6.5f	Dirt	$50/Mar 20
More to Tell S	Aqu	27-Mar	$60k g	4&up R	8f	Dirt	$50/Mar 20
Sis City S	Aqu	27-Mar	$60k g	4&up f/m R	8f	Dirt	$50/Mar 20
Kelly Kip S	Aqu	27-Mar	$55k g	4&up R	6f	Dirt	$50/Mar 20
Videogenic S	Aqu	27-Mar	$55k g	4&up f/m R	6f	Dirt	$50/Mar 20
Belle Gallantey	Aqu	27-Mar	$45k g	4&up f/m R	7f	Dirt	$50/Mar 20
Dads Caps	Aqu	27-Mar	$45k g	4&up R	7f	Dirt	$50/Mar 20
Shantel Lanerie Memorial S	FG	27-Mar	$60k g	4&up f/m S	8.32f	Dirt	$0/Mar 13
Star Guitar S	FG	27-Mar	$60k g	4&up S	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Mar 13
Pepsi S	Fon	27-Mar	$15k a	3yo f	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 20
Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa (G1)	GP	27-Mar	$750k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	$0/Mar 14
Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2)	GP	27-Mar	$200k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Mar 14
Pan American S (G2T)	GP	27-Mar	$200k g	4&up	12f	Turf	$0/Mar 14
Cutler Bay S	GP	27-Mar	$100k g	3yo	8f	Turf	$0/Mar 14
Ghostzapper S (G3)	GP	27-Mar	$100k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	$0/Mar 14
Kitten's Joy Appleton S (G3T)	GP	27-Mar	$100k g	4&up	8f	Turf	$0/Mar 14
Orchid S (G3T)	GP	27-Mar	$100k g	4&up f/m	11f	Turf	$0/Mar 14
Sand Springs S	GP	27-Mar	$100k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	$0/Mar 14
Sanibel Island S	GP	27-Mar	$100k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	$0/Mar 14
Sir Shackleton S	GP	27-Mar	$100k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	$0/Mar 14
Mainichi Hai (G3T)	JRA	27-Mar	$780k a	3yo	9f	Turf	Closed on Feb 9.
Nikkei Sho (G2T)	JRA	27-Mar	$1,383k a	4&up	12.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 9.
Nodouble S	OP	27-Mar	$150k g	3&up S	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 11
Santa Ana S (G3T)	SA	27-Mar	$100k g	4&up f/m	10f	Turf	$100/Mar 18
Animal Kingdom S	TP	27-Mar	#$75k g	3yo	6.5f	AW	$0/Mar 13
Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3)	TP	27-Mar	#$250k g	3yo	9f	AW	$0/Mar 13
Bourbonette Oaks	TP	27-Mar	#$150k g	3yo f	8f	AW	$0/Mar 13
TwinSpires Kentucky Cup Classic	TP	27-Mar	#$150k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	$0/Mar 13
Latonia S	TP	27-Mar	#$100k g	4&up f/m	8f	AW	$0/Mar 13
Rushaway S	TP	27-Mar	#$100k g	3yo	8.5f	AW	$0/Mar 13
East View S	Aqu	28-Mar	$100k g	3yo f S	7f	Dirt	$100/Mar 13
March S (G3)	JRA	28-Mar	$737k a	4&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 9.
Takamatsunomiya Kinen (G1T)	JRA	28-Mar	$2,362k a	4&up	6f	Turf	Closed on Feb 9.
Santana Mile S	SA	28-Mar	$75k a	4&up	8f	Dirt	$0/Mar 18
Equistaff Sophomore Turf	Tam	28-Mar	$110k g	3yo S	8.5f	Turf	$0/Mar 13
Grey Goose Turf Classic	Tam	28-Mar	$110k g	4&up S	9f	Turf	$0/Mar 13
NYRA Bets Sprint S	Tam	28-Mar	$110k g	4&up S	6f	Dirt	$0/Mar 13
Ocala Breeders' Sales Sophomore	Tam	28-Mar	$110k g	3yo S	7f	Dirt	$0/Mar 13
Pleasant Acres Stallions Distaff Turf	Tam	28-Mar	$110k g	3&up f/m S	8.5f	Turf	$0/Mar 13
Stonehedge Farm South Sophomore Fillies	Tam	28-Mar	$110k g	3yo f S	7f	Dirt	$0/Mar 13

This schedule subject to change with weather and dampanic restrictions, and will be updated accordingly throughout the month.

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Get the Grid!

Gulfstream Park Saturday Feb.27:  Gulfstream Mile, FOY, Davona Dale, Oh My.  Stakes Precap

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Saturday, February 27.  Gulfstream Park in sunny Miami hosts the best North American stakes card of the month today, with 9 stakes races, 8 of which are graded.  The highlight of course is the Fountain of Youth G2, but also we have the Davona Dale G2, GP Mile G2, Mac Diamarda and other stakes.

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We’ll break down the stakes races for you, using the Grid for analysis.  First, grab the free Gulfstream Grid today to follow along and make some notes of your own.  Racing starts early at 1130AM ET but the stakes racing doesn’t start until 1230 so you have some time.

The Fountain of Youth G2 is the last of 14 races on the day, taking the card past 6PM ET.  This contest is for 3yo’s aiming for the Kentucky Derby and is worth 50 Derby points to the winner. 10 talented youngsters are slated for today’s contest.

The Chalk:   Greatest Honour 9-5 ML is legit and has top LP and Power in the Grid. (Note that Sososubtle appears to have top LP but since the calculation drops the lowest race, it’s only based on 1 race).  Greatest Honour has won 2 in a row at GP including the Holy Bull G3 last out for Shug (pronounced as in sugar, not as in rug) and is heavily expected to win here.

Fire at Will is listed as 2^nd choice at 7-2 and has been slated for turf in all 4 races, 3 of which were wins.  Ironically he broke his maiden on a sloppy dirt track at Saratoga in a stakes race taken off turf.  Then he followed it up with 2 graded stakes wins on turf.  He’s an excellent colt for sure, but there’s a reason Maker has had him on turf, and I don’t trust him on dry dirt at this point.

The morning line has 2 co-3^rd choices listed at 5-1 each.  One of them is Pletcher’s Prime Factor, who finished a distant 3^rd in the Holy Bull, failing to make a closing move.  The other is Drain the Clock, who has won 2 stakes in a row by 6 and 7 lengths here for Saffie Joseph.  He has top EP and 2^nd in Power in the Grid, and should be very dangerous here.

Tarantino at 8-1 ML faded to 2^nd in the Holy Bull after chasing an honest but not torrid pace up front.  Papetu 15-1 was 4^th in that one, losing ground in the stretch, but before that was impressive finishing 2^nd by a length in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes.

The last realistic contender is Sososubtle who we already mentioned, who opened up last out to break maiden in his second race for Armando De La Cerda, with Paco Lopez up as he is today.  The race was on dirt at a mile here at Gulf and the PF puts him on the board. Long shot special alert.

It bears mentioning that Tiz Tact Toe 30-1, who I seriously doubt will win but could hit the board at long odds.  It’s his first start on dirt, first for trainer Rob Hess, and first since being gelded.  LSS alert.

Greatest Honour is indeed an S0 late runner but has proven that he doesn’t need a heated pace up front to win.  In fact, he almost won at Aqueduct 3 back with a 50.8 half mile up front but understandably came up a head short.  There’s enough speed for him here.

Prediction:  8 1 3 2 4 9     LSS 3 9

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Race 13 the Very One G3 is very intriguing.  10 older fillies and mares take to turf at 9.5f and this one is literally wide open.  The 4 top late runners are very close in LP and normally that’s what we look for at this distance. 

However, there’s almost no speed in the race, and we add a stakes runner from the UK who is a lukewarm ML favorite. I recommend doing some wheeling and dealing in this one.  The only one I can’t make a case for is the longest ML shot in the field.  So much for narrowing it down.

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The Davona Dale G2 in race 12 is the female equivalent of the FOY, with 10 talented fillies competing at a mile and aiming toward the Kentucky Oaks the first Saturday in May.

Vequist 7-5 is making her first start since winning the BC Juvenile Fillies G1 in November and unless the time off did her wrong, she will win this one.  However, there is a significant amount of speed in this one so she may have to be rated against her will.

The only other one with the competitive speed to track the favorite is Competitive Speed at 15-1, who put up a nice PF 2 back winning a sprint stakes here.  It will be her first time at 2 turns for Javier Gonzales but looks good going in.

Millefeuille and Crazy Beautiful also have good LP and competitive PF’s and someone else has to hit the board so those are my next choices.

Prediction:  3 7 5 6 LSS 7

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Honey Fox G3 Race 11 for older fillies and mares at 8f on turf. 

Got Stormy has been running at one turn but has a lot of speed and is a proven graded stakes competitor at a mile, and thus is the deserving favorite.  I also like the other single digit entries plus Jakarta at 15-1 for the long shot special. Jakarta always runs in sprints but her last race at a mile was a dirt stakes win here at GP.

Prediction:  2 6 8 7 4        LSS 8

The other stakes races look somewhat chalky with no really good plays identified yet so I’ll wait for post time to make decisions on those, but you’re free to use the Grid to make your own picks.

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Remember, you can get the Grid for all the major tracks and races right here.

Good luck!

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Friday, February 12, 2021.  A new edition of the 2021 Kentucky Derby Futures Pool, number 3 to be exact, is underway this weekend.  Remember to place your bets by Sunday at 6PM ET, regardless of whatever this 2:59AM time that it keeps stating on the TVG site.

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But also remember, you get locked in for the odds of each betting day.  First open today’s Derby Pool Grid so you can follow along with what we’re talking about.

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As we speak here on Friday afternoon, the Bob Baffert trained Life Is Good is the narrow single entry favorite, after winning at first request and then also winning the Sham Stakes to begin the year.  Fair enough, but you’ll probably get a better price than 5-1 on him on Derby Day.

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Baffert’s Concert Tour also looks good in winning his first two, including the San Vicente Stakes last out, but has yet to race at over a mile.  Sneaking under the radar is Bob’s 3^rd trainee in the pool, Medina Spirit, who ran a close 2^nd in the Sham and won the Bob Lewis G2 Stakes last out.

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Running way incognito right now for Baffert is Freedom Fighter currently at 35-1, who begrudgingly gave up the 7f San Vicente title after setting the pace and faithfully battling down the stretch, only to lose by half a length.  Now his odds are more than twice that of Concert Tour who was supposed to win anyway.

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Now that we’ve covered Bobby’s barn, let’s move on that of Brad Cox, whose barn has been on fire for the past year.  Top steed Essential Quality currently is at 6-1 due to his BC Juvenile win at Keeneland last year and has yet to run this year.  A good selection but again, you’ll likely get better odds in May.

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Brad has one more currently in the mix and somewhat under the radar.  Caddo River has won 2 in a row at a mile including the Smarty Jones where he obtained his first Kentucky Derby points.

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Chad Brown also has a couple in the futures mix right now, including an incredible bargain on Highly Motivated, who registered the highest PF in the Grid of 97 last out.  That was achieved in the Breeders’ Cup undercard Nyquist Stakes wherein he also set a new track record at 6.5f.  30-1?  OK.  
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Chad’s other entry, Risk Taking currently at 35-1, hasn’t done much except win a pair of 9 furlong races in a row, including the Withers G3 last out.  That too looks like a good bargain at that price.  

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You may be thinking I forgot about the ever Derby-dangerous Doug O’neill. Nope.  Hot Rod Charlie is currently at 40-1 after a horrible trip bumping and grinding in the RB Lewis. Before that he was 2^nd in the BC Juve.  The Great One, also at 40-1, broke maiden last out after a narrow loss in the Los Al Futurity last year to what was Baffert’s top 2yo at the time.  It would be dumb to count out Doug’O and great prices.

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A very intriguing prospect is Shug (pronounced as in the word SUGAR, which some “professional” announcers embarrassingly don’t know and pronounce it as a rhyme with RUG, which doesn’t even make sense, but most broadcasters just read a fucking teleprompter) McGaughey’s Greatest Honour, a Tapit colt currently at 11-1.  He has the top aggregate LP in the Grid and drew off in the Holy Bull G3 as if he were the wind.

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Rob Diodoro trainee Keepmeinmind has Uncle Mo as the grandsire and hasn’t done much wrong, coming in at a close 3^rd in the BC Juvenile then following up with a win in the KYJC G2.  45-1 is a hefty price for the 4^th best late runner in the Grid.

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Prevalence deserves to be mentioned after an impressive debut in which he won by 8.5 lengths in a 7f MSW in late January.  It’s unclear where he will appear next, but his competent trainer is Brendan Walsh and he’s a direct son of the great Medaglia D’oro. 

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Those are my top contestants out of order.  The exact rankings assigned for the Derby Dozen appear in the table below, but remember, any of these with double digit odds are good value.  The table can be sorted by any of the column field headers.  So start sorting and shredding.

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2021 Kentucky Derby Double Dozen Top 25 February 12.

Name	Pool3	Style	Rank	HI	Sire	Trainer
Essential Quality	5	EP3	1	96	Tapit	Cox Brad H
Life Is Good	5	E6	2	96	Into Mischief	Baffert Bob
Concert Tour	17	EP6	3	93	Street Sense	Baffert Bob
Medina Spirit	25	E7	4	93	Protonico	Baffert Bob
Highly Motivated	50	P6	5	97	Into Mischief	Brown Chad C
Freedom Fighter	50	E6	6	92	Violence	Baffert Bob
Greatest Honour	6	S0	7	97	Tapit	Mcgaughey Claude Iii
The Great One	60	EP8	8	96	Nyquist	O'neill Doug
Swiftsure	99	EP6	9	94	Uncle Mo	Asmussen Steven M
Hot Rod Charlie	50	P3	10	95	Oxbow	O'neill Doug
Keepmeinmind	50	S2	11	93	Laoban	Diodoro Robertino
Prevalence	12	E6	12	91	Medaglia D'Oro	Walsh Brendan P
Senor Buscador	16	S0	13	90	Mineshaft	Fincher Todd W
Caddo River	15	E8	14	92	Hard Spun	Cox Brad H
Candy Man Rocket	40	EP8	15	93	Candy Ride	Mott William I
Dream Shake	25	S4	16	88	Twirling Candy	Eurton Peter
Fire At Will	30	EP5	17	92	Declaration Of War	Maker Michael J
Jackie's Warrior	24	E7	18	96	Maclean's Music	Asmussen Steven M
Mandaloun	60	P6	19	90	Into Mischief	Cox Brad H
Midnight Bourbon	40	EP7	20	91	Tiznow	Asmussen Steven M
Nova Rags	99	P7	21	88	Union Rags	Mott William I
Risk Taking	30	P3	22	92	Medaglia D'Oro	Brown Chad C
Roman Centurian	50	S0	23	89	Empire Maker	Callaghan Simon

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Some final notes.  If you do like Keepmeinmind, bet on him Friday because he’s racing tomorrow in the Risen Star G2.  If he wins that you can kiss 45-1 odds goodbye.  Mandaloun, Midnight Bourbon, and Senor Buscador are also in that race.  Buscador is 8-1 so you can wait on that on, but he does have good LP and if he wins the odds might suck come Sunday.

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Also, Essential Quality and Jackie’s Warrior may run in the Southwest Stakes at some point next week.  It’s unclear when the race will actually be held and if EQ wins, his odds may go down, but 6-1 is nothing to write home about in a futures pool. 
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At least half of those listed in the futures pool won’t even make the final Derby field.  But as recent history has it, 4 of our top 10 will likely complete the Derby superfecta.  Those are good odds.

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You can of course get the Grid for every major track and race right here.  Good luck!

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Sunday, February 7, 2021.  Never before has a Superbowl had a more appropriate nomenclature than LIV this year.  In a year where people are fighting for their lives and their ways of life, in many ways, LIV pretty much sums it up.

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The key in daily fantasy sports is to get the best possible lineup. This has always proven to be a difficult task, but I’ve been getting better at it, especially in the playoffs.  In Fanduel, you only get 5 players, and 1 you choose as your MVP which gets you 1.5X points for that player.

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There are 2 realistic MVP candidates:  Tom Brady and Pat Mahomes.  Both of them average over 20 points per game as the highest scoring players coming into the game.  The only other I’m considering, and I put him as MVP into at least 1 of my 8 lineups, is L.Fournette.

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The problem with others as MVP is as follows:  T.Hill and T.Kelce are both coming off a monster game in which they went nuts.  They simply won’t repeat that the 3^rd game in a row.  Meaning someone like Sammy Watkins could have a big game instead.

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On the other side of the ball, Evans and Godwin both had a good game last out but nothing ridiculous, and they could repeat, but those are hardly MVP numbers.  Plus adding Antonio Brown to the mix, a great sleeper pick who will take points away from the other 2 WR’s.

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Brady and Mahomes are consistent, and either is your MVP.  I’m splitting my 8 lineups down the middle alternating those as the MVP.  I feel that TB will win but that doesn’t mean Brady is the points MVP.  I also feel a huge game from Fournette, who has always proven to shine in the playoffs.

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The rest of your picks are full of possibilities. But keep in mind that Brady and Gronkowski have a long Superbowl and playoff history together, and Cameron Brate is questionable for the game.  Although the signs are both will play, Gronk is way overdue for a big playoff game.

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Antonio Brown is a value pick in this game.  He hasn’t done much this season, but coming out of an injury, he’s healthy for the first time in a while and gives Brady another passing option since Evans and Godwin will be the focal point of the Chieves defense.

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As aforementioned in part, I really don’t like anyone coming off their biggest game of the season, so Hill and Kelce aren’t even an option for me, plus their fantasy salaries are ridiculous. I’d much rather spend the money on Brady and Mahomes.

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My ideal lineup is thus as follows, and it fits under the Fanduel cap: 

Brady, Mahomes, Fournette, Gronkowski, and Brown.

I have variations of this lineup rotating out the last 2 but the 1^st 3 are mandatory in my analysis.  If this is indeed the best lineup, I’ll be writing you from Cabo San Lucas next week while drinking Sammy’s Beach Bar Rum and Cabo Wabo tequila, completely mauled and enjoying my 6 digit win.

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If not, maybe one of my alternate lineups will win.  For value plays, I like Gronk and Brown as mentioned, but Brate, Miller, Pringle, Hardman, Watkins, and the kickers can also foot the bill.  Either kicker will likely guarantee you 10 points so they’re not really bad picks.  I just like the upside of the WR’s, as they could explode for big points as Brown and Watkins have in the past.

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For the game, I like Tampa Bay in this one. Put it this way:  Tommy is 6 of 9 in Superbowls, all this century.  Kansas City is 1 for 1 this century, due to last year’s win, and they could well win again this year.  But it’s a tall order, considering the formidable QB they are up against.

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The MVP position is up to you, flip a coin.  Mahomes can run and throw, and there’s a 99% chance he will break a run for at least 20 yards, whereas there’s a 1% chance that Brady will.  However, as aforementioned, there’s statistically a proven 67% chance that Brady will win the game.

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It’s not all about Brady of course, but his defense is playing well and the addition of deep threat Antonio Brown only gives him more options.  His release is quick and he moves around well in the pocket for someone his age, taking very few sacks.  He will be up for the challenge as he always has been.

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You can make an equal case for Mahomes, due to his ridiculous running ability that makes him a threat on any play, any down, at any point in the game.  He will do all he can to win the game and he’s dangerous, thus a very good MVP candidate as well, win or lose.

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Good luck today, and may the Horse be with you.