Weekend Winners Club

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Sunday, May 16, 2021. Sunny Santa Anita has a mandatory Jackpot 6 payout today with a $550k carryover coming in. That means a couple of things. First, you don’t need a unique ticket to win; anyone with the all the winners on their 20ct (or more) ticket ticket will win part of the final pool.

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Secondly, it means the final pool will probably exceed $2 million if history serves correctly. The difference is this: if you were one of yesterday’s winners that won $457 each, without the carryover you would have won $1465, which is a $1000 difference.

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If there were the same number of winners today and the winners as easy to pick yesterday (which they were) the payout for each person would be $3675, which is obviously $3000 more than you would have made yesterday.

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Right now, the winners don’t look like they will be any more difficult to select than yesterday, but you never know will happen. I won’t be breaking down the races for you today, but you’re free to use today’s free Grid to help you select some winners.

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Racing starts at 4pm ET and the Jackpot 6 is scheduled to begin in race 5 at about 5:45pm, so you have plenty of time to prepare for the pick 6.

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You can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races right here. Check out all the options.

Preakness Picks for Pricks.  Precap, Past Performances, Pace Predictions, Possibilities

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Saturday, May 15, 2021.  It’s the 3^rd Saturday in May and therefore it’s time once again for the Preakness Stakes.  We’ll take a look at some past performances, pace predictions, and possibilities in today’s biggest race.

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Obviously Medina Spirit is going to be the favorite, and rightly so, as Baffert has won this race 6 of 7 times with the Kentucky Derby champion, all with a similar front running type of win, and his one loss was a second place finish last year.  Bob also brings Concert Tour, a similar type of runner coming off a 3^rd place in the Arkansas Derby, as the second ML choice.

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There is only one other early runner in the race, Midnight Bourbon, who coincidentally is also the 3^rd ML choice at 5-1.  He was a solid 6^th in Kentucky after finishing in the money in two big-point preps for Asmussen. Between these 3 we’ve mentioned, they are the only ones that normally run up front.

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Rarely do 3 early speeders run top 3 or even top 4 in this race, so we definitely need a late runner.  Enter Crowded Trade, actually a midpack runner, who at 10-1 would be the 4^th ML favorite.  He probably would have won the Wood for Chad Brown if not for chasing a dawdling pace.  He has top LP and also the top PF in the Preakness Grid.

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Another good late runner is Risk Taking, who also faltered in the Wood trying to chase a non existent pace.  But prior to that he won two 9f races for Chad Brown and has good closing runs normally.

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Rombauer is another strong late runner who has an improving PF in each of his 6 races for Mike McCarthy, resulting in a 3^rd place finish in the Blue Grass stakes.

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The remaining 4 are certainly capable of rounding out the superfecta, but it’s a toss up and could go either way.  Much of the time there is an unexpected long shot who breaks into the top 4, so it’s a good idea to key and wheel.

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That’s it for today, pricks.  Good luck!

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Friday, May 13, 2021.  Preakness is upon us again, barely 6 months after the 2020 edition. Thus it is time once again for our annual study on the top Kentucky Derby and Preakness horses during the Baffert Era, which began officially in 1997 although he was training well before that.

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This exercise is important because it clues you in on how to bet the Preakness.  The first graphic below illustrates how the top 4 Kentucky Derby finishers did in the Preakness.  Take a good look and then we’ll review the findings.

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The first thing you will notice is that of the last 22 Kentucky Derby champions that ran in the Preakness, half of them won it.  Only 3 from that group finished out the top 4 in the Preakness.  2 of those 3 were Pletcher trainees, worth noting in the future, primarily because Todd has never won this race.

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Bob Baffert on the other hand, has an excellent record in this race, with 7 Preakness winners in the Era named after him.  In fact, last year was his only Preakness loss with a Derby champion, when his Authentic finished a close second.

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You will also notice that the other top 4 Kentucky Derby finishers also have an excellent record in the Preakness, with 40 out of the 52 runners finishing in the top 4.  But alas, Medina Spirit is the only one running in this year’s 2^nd leg.  So let’s move on to the next graphic.

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From this chart you can see what the actual top Preakness finishers did in the Derby if they actually ran for the roses.  Recently in the last 7 years, you can see that a slight majority, just over half of the top 4 Preakness runners actually did not run in the Derby.  That is expected this year as well since only 3 Derby competitors are entered in the 10 horse field.

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But also note that of the Preakness winners that did run for the roses, all of them but one finished top 6 in the Derby.  And, only one runner up and 3^rd place finisher were not from the top 7 in Kentucky.  Thus, we have to consider the 3 Derby runners this year, all top 7, as key horses.

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The next problem is what to do with all the dnr’s, which make up 7 of the 10 Preakness competitors.  That’s the million dollar question, but the good news is there are almost always long shots in the trifecta.  In only 4 years of the 24 year Baffert Era has there not been a double digit dog in the tri, and often there are two.

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So who do you pick for the long shots?  The Lukas winner is tempting, but I’m looking at the Preakness Grid and there’s a horse from one of the nation’s top trainers, who has both the highest PF overall and the top LP calculation. 

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Past that and the two Baffert trainees, it’s tough to figure out who else will appear in the super.  It may be best to wheel all at the bottom, but you also have to key the Derby horses along with that and try to figure out the best long shot which I already did.  So get the Grid and make your picks!

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May 2021. The Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan has been updated after some early month changes. Churchill Downs of course kicked off the month with a bang and Baffert’s 207th Kentucky Derby victory.

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2021 Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan Racing

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Wednesday, May 5, 2021.  This Kentucky Derby Recap will be depressing to some of you who didn’t get the Kentucky Derby Grid or subscribe to the Grid in any way.  This is mostly because we ran out of time last week to publish the Derby for Dummies after doing the last Derby Dozen.

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Each of those two would have provided free and easy ammo to get some nice Kentucky Derby exotics.  For example, as usual, the top 5 finishers in the Kentucky Derby this year were all from the top 8 in the Derby Dozen.  The top 4 were all in the top 10 of Derby for Dummies.

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Completing the Derby for Dummies chart that we began last week, using only the info available beforehand, we came up with the result that it would have indeed been a helpful tool.  3 of the top 4 in Derby for Dummies were part of the 6 that got an A score, including the winner. 

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Yes, it might surprise you to find out that Medina Spirit was indeed in the top 6 in both the final Derby Dozen and the posthumously published Derby for Dummies.  But there is good reason for that as will now be explained.

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In the latter, what we basically did for the fourth year in a row, is take the most important 5 subsets of the 80 factors in the expansive but inexpensive Kentucky Derby Grid, add the Derby Dozen as a 6^th category, and assign grades of A, B, and C, or no score, according to how good they are in that category.

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Then we simply add up the total scores, weighted 10, 7, and 4 for each A, B, and C, and give them a total score.  From that total score, we assign a final score of A or B. So it ends up looking like this.

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This expanded version shows you the Derby points, the Derby Dozen rank, the last 4 PF’s, and the all important sire, trainer, and jockey information.  Some of these are in bold type or highlighted, giving you some insight as to how and why they were scored in certain categories.

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Of course, if you got the Kentucky Derby Grid OR are already a subscriber to the Weekend Winners Club, you would have seen all this information already, and there’s even more information that meets the eye.  Clicking on a cell with the red marker in the top reveals more complete information. 

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Just using the Grid, I got an easy $250 Exacta, $850 Trifecta, and $700 something Pick 4 including the 3 races leading up to the Kentucky Derby.  Not a bad payday, but I would very much have liked to get the $10k superfecta as well. 

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However, boxing your top 7 horses in a 50 cent trifecta, which is well justified for the Kentucky Derby, is a reasonable cost of $105.  Whereas boxing the top 7 in a $1 minimum superfecta costs $840.  In fact, the most you can box for less than $360 is 5 horses.  But altogether a good day of betting.

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Of course, it’s a great time to join the WWC, since one month access will get you all the Preakness and Belmont Stakes materials you need to succeed, including the Grid for every major track and race day.  Great racing begins at Belmont Park this Saturday with 5 graded stakes.

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Check out all your options here and get the plan that’s best for you.

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Saturday, May 1, 2021.  The final down and dirty Derby Dozen was actually released in one of the Derby Lessons articles as a number in the ranking column, but if you didn’t catch it, this is what it looks like, relabeled as the column DD.

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For those smart enough to catch on to what that ranking was, and smarter enough to pay attention to the Derby Lesson series every year, you would know that the top 4 Kentucky Derby finishers are always from the top 10 in the Dozen, and 3 of the top 4 are almost always from the top 6.

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So take that in mind before you start shooting for some unreasonable long shots, and note that there are plenty of long shots already in the final Derby Dozen that you can use in your exotics and even WPS wagers.

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Update May 5, 2021

Indeed this year, it happened again, as the top 5 in the Kentucky Derby were all from the top 8 ranked in the final Derby Dozen, and the top 4 were all from the top 7.  That’s actually about normal for the Derby Dozen, but usually there’s an outlier that ranks 9 or 10.

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Anyway, stay tuned for some nice Preakness Picks next week, for some other great info and analysis for the next leg of the Triple Crown.

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It’s never too late to join the Weekend Winners Club.  Just 1 month of access will get you through the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes.  Check out the options here. No commitment necessary.

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April 30, 2021.  It’s only a day before the Kentucky Derby, so it’s time to get all your horses in a row so you can avoid the mad scramble and get your bets in ahead of time. Today we take a look at pedigree and how these horses should stack up.

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We’re going to cover all 20 contestants fastly and furiously, so look at the following chart first to see everything in a nutshell before we continue. You have the horse listed with the sire, sireline, dam, and dosage profile. Then the sire offspring average win distance, same for dam, and mud win% for sire crop.

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In past years, we were most heavily focused in on the RAN sireline, which is still very relevant, but AP Indy got on the board 2 years in a row in 2013, then In Excess got a winner, and Storm Cat finally, posthumously, had a Derby winner from his sireline with Justify and another with Authentic, proving once and for all that he’s the greatest sire of all time.

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Still, the RAN sireline has claimed 3 of the past 6 Kentucky Derby victories, and 58% of the winners from 1995 to present.  Now take a look at this chart where you can see the sireline from every Triple Crown Race winner from 1995- present to see what I’m talking about. 

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What you can discern is that the AP Indy sireline is now just as legit as that of RAN, and with the other Northern Dancer winners, the Storm Cat sireline is not just for sprinters anymore.  What typically matters more for distance is the mares they mate them to, and the longer AWD the better.

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Thus, the average winning distance is a telling matter.  If you were just to look at the dosage profiles, you would come up with Essential Quality, who covers every other base, and then Hidden Stash followed by King Fury, some good  long shots to include in your exotic bets.

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Including the rest of the pedigree profile, including AWD’s, now we have Rock Your World, Brooklyn Strong, Dynamic One, Hidden Stash, Soup and Sandwich, and Essential Quality.  There’s Hidden Stash Again, he could be a hidden gem in your exotics.  And EQ is completely validated in every study.

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It’s quite clear from this study that they all have excellent pedigrees top to bottom. In fact, I rated none of them less than B.  By far, most of the sires and grandsires involved are Triple Crown race winners or Breeders’ Cup winners, or have sired such winners. 

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Tomorrow: Don’t miss the famous Derby for Dummies where we put all these lessons together and come up with 3 of the 4 in the Derby superfecta, and hopefully even get that other long shot bugger that crashes the party.

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All of this information, and much more, is included in the Kentucky Derby Grid, with a limited amount still set for sale this week. It’s also a great time to join the Weekend Winners Club, since your first month gets you all Derby and Preakness materials and everything in between.  No hassle cancels, just login to Paypal and click cancel whenever you want. One full month access still guaranteed.

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April 29, 2021.  In today’s Derby lesson we will be analyzing the performance figures for the Kentucky Derby contestants.  Performance or speed figures indicate how well a horse performed in their prior races, and while some vendor’s PF’s are better than others, none of them are infallible.

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We will primarily look at the Grid PF’s since that’s what we manufacture here, but also included are Beyers because they are publicly available for the Derby horses on the DRF site. Beyers are the oldest type of speed figures ever made, and still have some relevance today.  

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Check out the mini-grid below.  The Grid PF’s are labeled PF1, 2, etc, appropriately. A full Grid has PF’s for the past 10 races and composites on the right.  For this purpose, we also have Beyers on the right labeled with By1,2 3.  The full legend is available below the Grid for the color coding etc. 

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So let’s apply this methodology to this year’s race at hand.  You will notice that Highly Motivated, Essential Quality, and Rock Your World have the best 2 of 3 PF average according to the Grid.  You can see the next two are Soup and Sandwich, and Hot Rod Charlie.

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Beyer Elimination Method.  The last column shows the results of this elimination method.  You take the highest low BF in the last 3 races as the comparative figure.  The other horses must be able to match or beat this in their last 3 races in order to be a BEM contender. We now have 8 contenders that can beat or match the 95 from Essential Quality.

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What I propose to narrow it down even further is a modified Grid Elimination Method (GEM*) if you will, and it has a nice ring to it.   Take the last 3 races and use highest low Grid PF of that set as the standard.  Now they have to beat or match the 95 of Highly Motivated.  6 horses qualify on the GEM.

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Now if we combine the BEM and GEM contenders, we have narrowed it down to only 4 horses.  Wouldn’t that be nice?  They are:  Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, Rock Your World, and Hot Rod Charlie.  There is good reason to believe the actual Derby winner will come from this group.

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Backing it up from our Derby 211 lesson is that they all have high percentage trainers, including Doug O, a two time Derby winner, and 4 prior Derby winning trainers (if you include Prat who won by a ridiculous DQ in 2020).  That gives us even more ammo to believe 1 of these 4 will win it.

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You will also notice that these 4 steeds are all top 5 in lowest morning line odds, proving that Mike Battaglia knows what the hell he’s talking about.  The other top 5 odds horse is Known Agenda, who fits the GEM method but missed the Beyer by 1 point.  Needless to say, he’ll be in my exotics.

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If we were able to publish the Bris figures, which is not possible because I’ve been threatened by sleazy lawyers, we would see that the Bris Elimination Method would narrow it down further to only 3, eliminating Hot Rod Charlie.  I personally refuse to do that, but take it for what it is.

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As with other methods in this Derby lesson series, we are able to narrow it down to 4 possible winners and a few other key horses to use in the exotics.  Combined with those other aspects, is how we will arrive at our final exotic bets, both horizontal and vertical.

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Thus endeth today’s lesson.  Stay tuned to this same channel for tomorrow’s surprise lesson.

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You can get the full Derby Grid with much more information and composite figures here.  It’s also a great time to join the WWC because if you join this week, you will automatically get all the Derby, Oaks, and Preakness materials, and everything else in between, including great stakes racing at all your favorite tracks..  Check out the options here.

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April 28, 2021.  In this edition of the Kentucky Derby Lessons, we shall cover the major prep races leading up to the Derby, and their inherent relativism.  We will focus on the Baffert Era which began in 1997 when he won the Kentucky Derby in two consecutive years.

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Obviously, the final prep race for these contestants is important to tune up for the Derby, but it is also a very important factor in determining if they can actually win the big one. It may not surprise you that the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners ALL won their final prep, and in 9 cases it was a Big 6 final prep.

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In the 24 race span from 1997-2020, the Kentucky Derby winner had won their final prep 67% of the time, and another 25% were runners up in their final prep, making it an astounding 92% that were top 2 in their final prep.  Only 2 winners weren’t top 2; they finished 4^th in their final prep.

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In only 4 of the 24 races (17%), was the final prep for the winner not a Big 6 Prep.  To define that, it’s one of the 6 Grade 1 or 2 races leading up to the Derby.  In modern terms since the point system was invented, it’s a G1 or G2 worth 100 points (or more) leading up to the Run for the Roses.  Take a look:

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(Last year the races in question were quite different, because everything last year was out of whack, including the running of the Belmont, Travers, and Haskell before the Kentucky Derby.  The usual Big 6 races were either cancelled or run several months beforehand.  We’re back to normal this year.)

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This grid also shows that the Ky Derby runner up also finished 1 or 2 in their final prep the vast majority of the time.  79% of the horses running 1 and 2 in the Kentucky Derby also ran 1 or 2 in their final prep, and in 85% of the races, their final prep was a Big 6 race.

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Thus, a major predictor of a winner or runner up finish in the Kentucky Derby, is that they finished 1^st or 2^nd in their final Prep, and the value increases if it was a Big 6 prep, which is why it is a critical criteria in the Derby Grid and also in any study attempting to predict a Derby champ.

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Note that 11 of the12 this year are participants in the run for the roses, so we only narrowed the field down by about half.  But considering the last 10 champs all actually won their final prep, we can most likely narrow it down to the Big 6 winners just using this study.  
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In further Derby Lessons we’ll continue to narrow it down beyond that, so stay tuned each day.
😀

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To get the Kentucky Derby Grid with over 80 historical, pedigree, and critical criteria, check here.

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April 27, 2021.  In this year’s Kentucky Derby training series, we will review some handicapping elements used to select your top horses for the big race.  How important are trainers and jockeys in the Kentucky Derby?  Answer: they both have significant impact values in this race. 

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Consider this:  In the 6 editions of the Derby from 2015-2020, only one jockey and one trainer won it fo the first time.  The rest of them were ALL repeat offenders, most notably Baffert with 3 of the 6 wins.  Victor Espinoza and John Velazquez each had 2 wins during that span. 

Bold indicates a repeat winner, blue a multiple repeater. In the past 14 runs for the roses, you can see that 5 trainers were repeat winners, and 9 jockeys were winning it for the second or third time.  This does seem to favor the more experienced Kentucky Derby horsemen does it not?

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There are reasons why some trainers and jockeys are hoarding the Derby wins.  First and foremost, in general the top percentage trainers get the best horses, and the top winning jockeys get the best mounts.  So, many of the same trainers and jockeys end up in this race every year, and win again.

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We put together a concise little chart of the field to make it easier for you to see.  Again in blue we have horsemen that have already won the Roses before.  In fact all of the trainers in blue are repeat winners already. 

Also in bold but not tinted, are top horsemen that have either won a Triple Crown race or are so highly accomplished, that it would be surprising to NOT see them in the Derby winner’s circle before they retire.  That’s not to say the remaining horsemen are not capable, just not as likely.

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You can see from the chart that the top horses in this year’s contest, in terms of points or odds, for the most part have highly accomplished trainers and jockeys.  Also note that the Win and ITM columns for such trainer stats corroborate this notion.

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Note that the favorite would be a first time winning trainer, but one that has been winning a lot of big races over the past year.  The same could be said perennially for Chad Brown and Asmussen, who is hard to believe hasn’t won this race yet.

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Thus endeth today’s lesson about trainers and jocks. Stay tuned to Kentucky Derby Central for another lesson every day this week, and try to keep up. This week goes by rapidly and furiously every year.

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Get the Derby Grid with over 80 different factors including historical, pedigree, and performance, to help you get the right winner this year.

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You’re welcome.  Good luck.