Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, February 6.  Tampa Bay Downs is getting its stakes racing underway with 3 graded stakes races including the Tampa Bay, Sam Davis, and Endeavor.  The listed Suncoast Stakes for 3yo fillies and Sam Davis G3 top off a big 3yo day with several maiden races on the undercard.

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The featured Sam Davis G3 for open 3yo’s is scheduled for 5pm and features 12 talented youngsters trying to blaze their Triple Crown trail going 8.5f on the dirt.  This race looks very competitive and could be wide open.  Get today’s free Tampa grid here to follow along.

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Candy Man Rocket at 10-1 ML which will certainly go down, is my top pick after a blistering 9 length win breaking his maiden last out at Gulfstream for Bill Mott, who also brings Nova Rags who is the second ML choice at 4-1. 

Known Agenda at 6-1 is my second pick, making his first 3yo start after a 3^rd place in the sloppy Remsen G2 a couple months ago. His price will likely come down. Todd also has a pair, with Millean coming off a win in his first dirt race.

Smiley Sobotka 3-1 is hard to argue against as the favorite after a 2^nd in the Kentucky Jockey Club G2 in November.  He’s also making his first 3yo start.

My next choice is Hidden Stash 10-1 ML, who has rattled off 2 straight wins at this distance for Victor Oliver.  Runway Magic at 8-1 looks good going into his first route race.

Prediction:  9 3 1 5 8 6 7 LSS 9 1 6

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Working backwards, the Endeavour G3 on turf will be run on turf at 8.5f for older fillies and mares.  This race is also somewhat wide open, but will only have 7 entries so odds will likely suffer.

Prediction:  2 5 8 7 6        LSS 8

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Race 9 is the filly equivalent of the Sam Davis, the Suncoast Stakes at 8.18 for 3yof.  This one also has a lot of possibilities. Indeed the favorite is my top choice, Gulf Coast at 5-2.

My second choice Feeling Mischief at 9-2looking good going into her first route after a stakes win, and 3^rd choice is the 2^nd ML choice Honorifique at 7-2 coming off a close 2^nd place stakes finish.  Long shots Be Sneaky 12-1 and Special Princess 8-1 could make some noise.

Prediction:  7 2 5, 4 8 10                 LSS 8 10

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Race 8 is the Tampa Bay Stakes for older horses going 8.5f on the turf.  Once again, a lot of possibilities here and a good betting race.  Favorites Fancy Liquor and Greyes Creek have good merit but so do many others.  12 to choose from here and half of them simply can’t be ruled out.

Prediction:  12 2 10 5 6 4 8             LSS 4 5 6 8

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That’s it for the stakes racing. Several MSW’s on the undercard feature possible rising stars coached by the likes of Pletcher, Mott, McPeek, Clement, and Proctor.  They will certainly provide some good entertainment and insight into the 3yo picture being formulated this year.

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Good luck to all!

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Remember, you can get the Grid for every major track and race right here.

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The February 2021 thoroughbred stakes schedule for North America, Japan, and Saudi Arabia has been revised due to weather postponements and additions. Updated Feb.23 to reflect new dates for Oaklawn stakes racing.

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As usual for this time of year, the bulk of stakes racing is occurring in South Florida and South California, the sunny and warm spots of the winter. But Saudi Arabia has also released their very high priced stakes schedule.

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February 2021 Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan

Race	Track	Date	Purse	Age/Sex	Dist.	Surface	Fee, Due Date
Baffle S	SA	5-Feb	$75k a	3yo	6.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 21.
A.T.B.A. Sales S	TuP	5-Feb	$35k a	3yo c/g R	6f	Dirt	Not Available
A.T.B.A. Sales S	TuP	5-Feb	$35k a	3yo f R	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Withers S (G3)	Aqu	6-Feb	$250k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 23.
Ladies' Turf Sprint S	GP	6-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m	5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 24.
Suwannee River S (G3T)	GP	6-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 24.
King Cotton S	OP	6-Feb	$150k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
Las Virgenes S (G3)	SA	6-Feb	$200k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 28.
San Marcos S (G2T)	SA	6-Feb	$200k g	4&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Jan 21.
Thunder Road S (G3T)	SA	6-Feb	$100k g	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Jan 28.
Lambholm South Endeavour S (G3T)	Tam	6-Feb	#$175k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 23.
Sam F. Davis S (G3)	Tam	6-Feb	#$250k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 23.
Suncoast S	Tam	6-Feb	#$150k g	3yo f	8.32f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 23.
Tampa Bay S (G3T)	Tam	6-Feb	#$175k g	4&up	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 23.
Ruthless S	Aqu	7-Feb	$100k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 23.
Kisaragi Sho (G3T)	JRA	7-Feb	$780k a	3yo	10f	Turf	Closed on Dec 22.
Tokyo Shimbun Hai (G3T)	JRA	7-Feb	$808k a	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Dec 22.
San Vicente S (G2)	SA	7-Feb	$200k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 28.
Sweet Life S (G3T)	SA	7-Feb	$100k g	3yo f	6f	Turf	Closed on Jan 28.
Louisiana Premier Bon Temps Starter	DeD	10-Feb	$40k g	4&up f/m S	5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Championship	DeD	10-Feb	$125k g	4&up S	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Distaff	DeD	10-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Gentlemen Starter	DeD	10-Feb	$50k g	4&up S	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Ladies Starter	DeD	10-Feb	$50k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Matron	DeD	10-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m S	5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Prince	DeD	10-Feb	$100k g	3yo S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Ragin Cajun Starter	DeD	10-Feb	$40k g	4&up S	5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Sprint	DeD	10-Feb	$100k g	4&up S	5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
Louisiana Premier Starlet	DeD	10-Feb	$100k g	3yo f S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 26.
A.T.B.A. Sales S	TuP	12-Feb	$35k a	4&up f/m R	6.5f	Dirt	Not Available
A.T.B.A. Sales S	TuP	12-Feb	$35k a	4&up c/g R	6.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Broadway S	Aqu	13-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Albert M. Stall Memorial S	FG	13-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 30.
Colonel Power S	FG	13-Feb	$100k g	4&up	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 30.
Fair Grounds S (G3T)	FG	13-Feb	$150k g	4&up	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 30.
Mineshaft S (G3)	FG	13-Feb	$200k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Rachel Alexandra S Presented by Fasig-Tipton (G2)	FG	13-Feb	$300k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Risen Star S Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2)	FG	13-Feb	$400k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
El Camino Real Derby	GG	13-Feb	$100k g	3yo	9f	AW	Closed on Feb 4.
Gulfstream Park Sprint (G3)	GP	13-Feb	$100k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 31.
Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint (G3T)	GP	13-Feb	$100k g	4&up	5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 31.
Queen Cup (G3T)	JRA	13-Feb	$721k a	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Jan 5.
Santa Monica S (G2)	SA	13-Feb	$200k g	4&up f/m	7f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 4.
Minaret S	Tam	13-Feb	$50k g	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Pelican S	Tam	13-Feb	#$100k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Gander S	Aqu	14-Feb	$100k g	3yo S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Kyodo News Service Hai (G3T)	JRA	14-Feb	$780k a	3yo	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 5.
Kyoto Kinen (G2T)	JRA	14-Feb	$1,283k a	4&up	11f	Turf	Closed on Jan 5.
Hollie Hughes	Aqu	15-Feb	$100k g	4&up S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Wishing Well S	SA	15-Feb	$75k a	4&up f/m	6.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 4.
Mardi Gras S	FG	16-Feb	$75k g	4&up f/m	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 6.
Al Rahji Bank Saudi International H	Sau	19-Feb	$500k g	3&up	10.5f	Turf	Not Available
Queen of the Green S	TuP	19-Feb	$30k g	3&up f/m	8f	Turf	Not Available
Walter R. Cluer Memorial S	TuP	19-Feb	$28k a	3&up	8f	Turf	Not Available
Maddie May S	Aqu	20-Feb	$100k g	3yo f S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 6.
Grasmick S	Fon	20-Feb	$15k a	3&up	4f	Dirt	$0/Feb 16
Royal Delta S (G3)	GP	20-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 7.
Houston Turf S	Hou	20-Feb	$75k g	4&up S	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 10.
H-Town S	Hou	20-Feb	$75k g	4&up S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 10.
Jim's Orbit S	Hou	20-Feb	$75k g	3yo c/g S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Miss Bluebonnet Turf S	Hou	20-Feb	$75k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 10.
Two Altazano S	Hou	20-Feb	$75k g	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Diamond S (G3T)	JRA	20-Feb	$838k a	4&up	17f	Turf	Closed on Jan 5.
Kyoto Himba S (G3T)	JRA	20-Feb	$737k a	4&up f/m	7f	Turf	Closed on Jan 5.
General George S (G3)	Lrl	20-Feb	$250k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
John B. Campbell S	Lrl	20-Feb	$100k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Miracle Wood S	Lrl	20-Feb	$100k g	3yo	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Nellie Morse S	Lrl	20-Feb	$100k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Runhappy Barbara Fritchie S (G3)	Lrl	20-Feb	$250k g	4&up f/m	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Wide Country S	Lrl	20-Feb	$100k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 30.
Buena Vista S (G2T)	SA	20-Feb	$200k g	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 11.
Al Rahji Bank Saudi Derby	Sau	20-Feb	$1,500k g	3yo	8f	Dirt	Not Available
Jockey Club Local H	Sau	20-Feb	$1,000k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	Not Available
Neom Turf Cup	Sau	20-Feb	$1,000k g	3&up	abt 10.5f	Turf	Not Available
Red Sea Turf H	Sau	20-Feb	$2,500k g	3&up	15f	Turf	Not Available
Saudi Cup	Sau	20-Feb	$20,000k g	3&up	9f	Dirt	Not Available
SAUDIA Riyadh Dirt Sprint	Sau	20-Feb	$1,500k g	3&up	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Turf Sprint	Sau	20-Feb	$1,000k g	3&up	abt 6.5f	Turf	Not Available
February S (G1) BC	JRA	21-Feb	$2,058k a	4&up	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 5.
Kokura Daishoten (G3T)	JRA	21-Feb	$838k a	4&up	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 5.
Lightning City S	Tam	24-Feb	#$100k g	4&up f/m	5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 6.
Turf Dash S	Tam	24-Feb	#$100k g	4&up	5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 6.
Cincinnati Trophy S	TP	26-Feb	#$65k g	3yo f	6.5f	AW	Closed on Feb 17.
John Battaglia Memorial S	TP	26-Feb	#$100k g	3yo	8.5f	AW	Closed on Feb 17.
Stymie S	Aqu	27-Feb	$125k g	4&up	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 13.
Black Gold S	FG	27-Feb	$75k g	3yo	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 13.
Dixie Poker Ace S	FG	27-Feb	$60k g	4&up S	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 13.
Bold Accent S	Fon	27-Feb	$15k a	3&up f/m	4f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 20.
Canadian Turf S (G3T)	GP	27-Feb	$125k g	4&up	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 14.
Davona Dale S (G2)	GP	27-Feb	$200k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 14.
Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S (G2)	GP	27-Feb	$300k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 14.
Herecomesthebride S (G3T)	GP	27-Feb	$100k g	3yo f	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 14.
Honey Fox S (G3T)	GP	27-Feb	$125k g	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 14.
Mac Diarmida S (G2T)	GP	27-Feb	$200k g	4&up	11f	Turf	Closed on Feb 14.
Palm Beach S	GP	27-Feb	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 14.
The Very One S (G3T)	GP	27-Feb	$125k g	4&up f/m	9.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 14.
WinStar Gulfstream Park Mile (G2)	GP	27-Feb	$200k g	4&up	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 14.
Houston Turf S	Hou	27-Feb	$75k g	4&up S	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Feb 10.
H-Town S	Hou	27-Feb	$75k g	4&up S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 10.
Jim's Orbit S	Hou	27-Feb	$75k g	3yo c/g S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Miss Bluebonnet Turf S	Hou	27-Feb	$75k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 10.
Two Altazano S	Hou	27-Feb	$75k g	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Razorback H (G3)	OP	27-Feb	$600k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Southwest S (G3)	OP	27-Feb	$750k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Spring Fever S	OP	27-Feb	$200k g	4&up f/m	5.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Pasadena S	SA	27-Feb	$100k g	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Feb 18.
Hankyu Hai (G3T)	JRA	28-Feb	$838k a	4&up	7f	Turf	Closed on Jan 12.
Nakayama Kinen (G2T)	JRA	28-Feb	$1,383k a	4&up	9f	Turf	Closed on Jan 12.
Bayakoa S (G3)	OP	44255	$250k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Dixie Belle S	OP	44255	$150k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Downthedustyroad S	OP	44255	$150k g	4&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 19.
Tiznow S	SA	44255	$100k g	4&up S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Feb 18.

Table includes all scheduled thoroughbred stakes races for North America.

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January 30-31 will have some great stakes racing back on the board in the thoroughbred industry, for those of you missing football or any of your other favorite weekend sports.

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Talented 3yos will take the field in the Holy Bull G3 and Bob Lewis G3 as they take aim at the Kentucky Derby from opposite sides of the continent. Don’t miss the action and stay tuned here for great picks.

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Check out this lineup:

January 30, 2021
Toboggan S (G3)	Aqu	Jan 30	$150k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 16.
Forward Gal S (G3)	GP	Jan 30	$100k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 17.
Holy Bull S (G3)	GP	Jan 30	$200k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 17.
Kitten’s Joy S (G3T)	GP	Jan 30	$100k g	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Jan 17.
Swale S (G3)	GP	Jan 30	$100k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 17.
Sweetest Chant S (G3T)	GP	Jan 30	$100k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Jan 17.
Darby’s Daughter S	Hou	Jan 30	$75k g	3yo f R	5.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jun 1.
My Dandy S	Hou	Jan 30	$75k g	3yo c/g R	5.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jul 1.
American Beauty S	OP	Jan 30	$150k g	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 14.
Martha Washington S	OP	Jan 30	$200k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 14.
Robert B. Lewis S (G3)	SA	Jan 30	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
San Pasqual S (G2)	SA	Jan 30	$200k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 21.
January 31, 2021
Jimmy Winkfield S	Aqu	Jan 31	$100k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 16.
Frontier Utilities Turf Sprint	Hou	Jan 31	$100k g	4&up	5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 20.
Houston Ladies Classic (G3)	Hou	Jan 31	$300k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 20.
Jersey Lilly Turf S	Hou	Jan 31	$75k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 20.
John B. Connally Turf Cup (G3T)	Hou	Jan 31	$200k g	4&up	12f	Turf	Closed on Jan 20.
Stonerside Sprint	Hou	Jan 31	$75k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 20.
Texas Turf Mile	Hou	Jan 31	$200k g	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Jan 20.
Negishi S (G3)	JRA	Jan 31	$780k a	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 22.
Silk Road S (G3T)	JRA	Jan 31	$808k a	4&up	6f	Turf	Closed on Dec 22.

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Monday, January 11, 2021.  Wildcard weekend is over and the action was wild as usual, so there’s a good bit of Monday morning quarterbacking to conduct today.  Among the surprises were the Steelers spotting the Browns a 28 point first quarter lead, setting up for Big Ben to set new playoff records for pass attempts and completions in a game.

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The Steelers defense completely falling apart was as surprising as the high flying Seahawks offense not being able to move the ball against the Rams.  So the two wild card surprise winners provided some great fantasy points for the contrarians, and punished people who made conventional picks.

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In the NFL Playoff challenge, the list of week 1 leaders is full of surprises for most of us, except at quarterback where the only big surprise was Heineken, who hasn’t played much this year.  Without going over all of them, here’s the leaderboard.

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If you’re in the NFL Playoff Challenge, chances are you did not have anywhere close to the Best Lineup pictured above. But rue not.  Note that 3 of them lost in week 1, and 4 of them will probably lose next weekend in the divisional round.  That leaves 1 that should move on, but that’s not guaranteed. 

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We’re in this for the long haul, so I’m happy to have Josh Allen at QB, Kamara at RB, Diggs and Thomas at WR, Tyler Bass as pillow fighter, and the Saints Defense. All are playing week 2 for 2x whatever points they earn.  As advertised last week, we stacked up on Bills and Saints and got some decent points.

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Unfortunately for the Bills and Saints, they have the toughest games next weekend, as the Bills will have their hands full with double threat Lamar Jackson and the Saints have to stop playoff perennial Tom Brady.  There is no guarantee either will advance, and if they both don’t, this team is over. 

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The reason being, if you insert new players in week 3 for the conference championships, you get no multiplier bonus whereas the winning fantasy teams are earning 2x and 3x points for all their players.  You will have basically no chance to win unless it’s maybe just 1 player.  

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So if either the Bills or Saints were going to lose, they should have done it in week 1 so I could load up on Packers and Chieves this next weekend.  As it is, I must stick with the crew and hope the 2 seeds both win and play at least a 3^rd game for 3x points.  I only have 2 slots open, 1 RB and 1 TE, of players not advancing.  

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The TE slot poorly filled by Marc Andrews in week 1 was a placeholder for Kelce next weekend and hopefully 2 games after that.  The RB slot was slated for Aaron Jones but will require some consideration since they drew the best defense in the playoffs for next week.  Not to mention KC faces the worst defense of any remaining playoff team.

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In the NFL playoff challenge, you can reload with whatever player you want at any position.  But keep in mind any active player you remove, you will miss out on 2x their points this weekend and possibly 3x their points the next week and 4x if they reach the superbowl.  So it takes some strategizing.

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If you have Allen or Brees, you have to keep them.  By design, I don’t have the conundrum of having to replace Lamar Jackson, but if I did I would reluctantly replace him with Mahomes and sacrifice the 2x.  If you lost players in week 1, here’s the recommended restocking list.

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Quarterback:

P Mahomes

A Rodgers

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Running back:

A Jones or Edwards-Helaire? See below.

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Wide Receiver:

T Hill

D Adams

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Tight End:

Kelce

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Defense:

Packers

Chieves

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Pillow Fighter:

H Butker

M Crosby

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Most of this is straightforward, and don’t consider another TE besides Kelce in this league, but the RB situation is difficult.  Obviously in a DFS situation you would try to squeeze in both Jones and Helaire if possible, and should be possible in a Sat-Sun contest for both days.  However, the initial outlook for Jones isn’t great.

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Next up for Green Bay is the Rams, who allowed less than 90 yards total to RB’s and only 2 TD’s total for the high flying Seahawks.  Next up would likely be the Saints, who allowed less than 50 yards total rushing last week including the QB runs, and gave up the 2^nd least amount of rushing TD’s in the NFL (behind Tampa).  If GB survives those contests, Jones would finally get a good matchup.

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Edwards-Helaire on the other hand, has a patsy matchup next weekend with Cleveland, who may have only allowed 52 yards on the ground last week, but they also had a 28 point first quarter lead.  They allowed the second most TD’s in the NFL during the regular season.  Next up would preferably be the Bills, who allowed a playoff-team high 21 rushing TD’s, but the Ravens can be run on also.

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So you can see my mind is not made up on the issue, given the evidence.  Jones gets more yards and a twice as many TD’s on average, but has bad matchups.  Helaire has cake walks and a higher probability of actually playing multiple games whereas Jones will need a lot of Rodgers just to get past the Rams.

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In fact, at this point, it’s tempting to dump all the other Bills and replace them with Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Kelce, and Helaire.  Because the Chieves road back to the Superbowl is looking the most solid of any team remaining, and 3 games are the most probably.

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But then if the Bills win again, you will feel foolish for not getting 2x points and then 3x the next week whether they win or lose in the Conference final.  Then if they make the Superbowl and you dumped all your Bills, you’ll have to find a high bridge.

You might think, what’s the big deal, it’s just a trip to the Superbowl on the line?  But you can’t even get into that game for less than 2 grand nowadays, and very few people can get in.  Hotel and airfare, that’s another 2 grand.  It has some good monetary value, even if you don’t want the once in a lifetime experience yourself.

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Next weekend’s matchups: 

LA Rams at Green Bay:  Good for Rams, bad news for Packers

Baltimore at Buffalo:  Good for Baltimore RB’s including the QB, neutral for all others

Cleveland at Kansas City:  Good for both teams

Tampa Bay at New Orleans:  bad for running backs, good for others

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We’ll see what these teams are made of, but statistically the Ravens look really good on paper despite their inferior record.  They have the highest point differential in the NFL, meaning they blew some teams out, and allowed the second least amount of points, behind only the Rams. 

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2^nd in point differential are the mighty Saints, who did it without Brees for 4.5 games.  Behind them in PD are the Packers, Bucs, Bills, then Chieves, in that order.  Not surprisingly, all 6 of these top PD teams are in the second round of the playoffs, which is why PD is a good indicator.

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Joining them are the offensively challenged Rams with the best point defense in the league.  And the Browns, who actually have a negative PD and don’t have any business being in the playoffs in the first place.  They should get annihilated by the Chieves but will put up a few points in doing so.

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The only lock of the week is the Chieves -10.  The other 3 favorites should also win but on historical average, 1 of them always loses in the Divisional Round.  The most vulnerable, for reasons above, appears to be the Bills.  But they’ve won 7 in a row and had the #1 strength of schedule among playoff teams in their 13 win season.

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Stay tuned for more NFL updates on this channel, and good luck!

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Saturday, January 09, 2021.  The NFL playoff challenge starts today.  If you’re unfamiliar with the contest, it’s a free entry on NFL and currently unknown what the grand prize is, but it’s usually quite nice. 

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In this contest you pick 8 players and you get a multiplier for their points for each game that they play, so in their 2^nd game you get 2x points, 3^rd game 3x points, etc.  So naturally you want to pick players from the teams that will go the farthest.  But you also get to select new players each round.

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The new playoff system is confusing for many, so take a look at it here, this is the best graphical representation.

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Obviously picking players from the top two teams is a good idea, in this contest, but not until round 2.  What you want to do is get the players from round 1 that you think will go the farthest, especially the star players.  Then you get 4x their points they get if they reach the superbowl.

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This is our current best model for the playoff results in this picture.  For the team picks it looks like all favs ATS except Steelers who can’t cover a spread this year.

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You can see that we like the Bills and Saints to play the most amount of games from round 1, and either could reach the Superbowl to be practical about it.  So my strategy was to stack up on Bills and Saints players and hope for the best. 

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Of course, filling the roster with all Saints and Bills is impractical.  The Bills running back committee scores 14 points per game total so you would only get decent points out of one of them in their 3^rd or 4^th game if they make it that far.  Use stud players in week 1 instead, and replace them with Packers and Chieves in the second round.

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Here’s my list of best players for this contest.

Alvin Kamara MVP

Josh Allen

Drew Brees

Aaron Rodgers

Patrick Mahomes

Aaron Jones

Devonte Adams

Travis Kelce

Stephon Diggs

Tyreek Hill

Edwards Helaire

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There are a host of good first round players that will probably win but not play more than one game.  I’m not distinguishing between them and first round players that I think will lose, because I’ll be sacrificing the bonus points to replace them with Packers and Chieves in the second round.

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We developed division rankings based on strength of schedule for this analysis, as well offensive and defensive stats.  The final division rankings:

1. AFC East 134
2. AFC West 132
3. NFC South 131
4. NFC West 127
5. AFC North 126
6. AFC South 125
7. NFC North 125
8. NFC East 120

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January 2021. The schedule of stakes races for North America and Japan Racing Association is quite strong again with over 100 stakes races on tap. Gulfstream will be the epicenter as usual for January, with Santa Anita in close second if they can keep the fascist governor from closing it again.

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January 2021 Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan

Race	Track	Date	Purse	Age Sex	Dist.	Surface	Fee and Date
Jerome S	Aqu	01-Jan	$150k g	3yo	8f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 19.
Abundantia S	GP	01-Jan	$75k g	4&up f/m	5f	Turf	Closed on Dec 19.
Cash Run S	GP	01-Jan	$75k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 19.
Janus S	GP	01-Jan	$75k g	4&up	5f	Turf	Closed on Dec 19.
Joe Hernandez S (G2T)	SA	01-Jan	$200k g	4&up	6.5f	Turf	Closed on Dec 17.
Gravesend	Aqu	02-Jan	$100k g	3&up	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 19.
Dania Beach S	GP	02-Jan	$75k g	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Dec 20.
Ginger Brew S	GP	02-Jan	$75k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Dec 20.
Glitter Woman	GP	02-Jan	$75k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 20.
Limehouse	GP	02-Jan	$75k g	3yo	6f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 20.
Mucho Macho Man S	GP	02-Jan	$100k g	3yo	8f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 20.
San Gabriel S (G2T)	SA	02-Jan	$200k g	4&up	9f	Turf	Closed on Dec 17.
Sham S (G3)	SA	02-Jan	$100k g	3yo	8f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 17.
La Verdad S	Aqu	03-Jan	$100k g	4&up f/m S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 19.
Santa Ynez S (G2)	SA	03-Jan	$200k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 17.
Sam's Town	DeD	04-Jan	$60k g	4&up	5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 21.
Hank Mills Sr. S	TuP	04-Jan	$28k a	4&up	6.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Orleans	DeD	05-Jan	$60k g	4&up f/m	5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 21.
Kyoto Kimpai (G3T)	JRA	05-Jan	$838k a	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Nov 24.
Nakayama Kimpai (G3T)	JRA	05-Jan	$838k a	4&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Nov 24.
Jeff and Jack Coady Sr. S	TuP	05-Jan	$28k a	4&up f/m	6f	Turf	Not Available
Say Florida Sandy S	Aqu	09-Jan	$100k g	4&up S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 29.
Nelson J. Menard Memorial S	FG	09-Jan	$75k g	4&up f/m	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Dec 26.
Tropical Turf (G3T)	GP	09-Jan	$100k g	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Dec 27.
La Canada S (G3)	SA	09-Jan	$200k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 31.
Las Cienegas S (G3T)	SA	09-Jan	$100k g	4&up f/m	6f	Turf	Closed on Dec 31.
Rego Park S	Aqu	10-Jan	$100k g	3yo S	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 29.
Shinzan Kinen (G3T)	JRA	10-Jan	$780k a	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Nov 24.
Kalookan Queen S	SA	10-Jan	$75k a	4&up f/m	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 31.
Gold Cup	DeD	11-Jan	$75k g	4&up S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 29.
Louisiana Legacy	DeD	11-Jan	$75k g	3yo S	7.5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 29.
Fairy S (G3T)	JRA	11-Jan	$721k a	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Nov 24.
Louisiana Jewel	DeD	12-Jan	$75k g	3yo f S	7.5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 29.
Magnolia S	DeD	12-Jan	$75k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 29.
Forego S	TP	15-Jan	#$65k g	4&up	6.5f	AW	$0/Jan 6
Franklin Square S	Aqu	16-Jan	$100k g	3yo f S	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Colonel E.R. Bradley S	FG	16-Jan	$125k g	4&up	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 2.
Duncan F. Kenner S	FG	16-Jan	$100k g	4&up	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 2.
Lecomte S (G3)	FG	16-Jan	$200k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Louisiana S (G3)	FG	16-Jan	$125k g	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Marie G. Krantz Memorial S	FG	16-Jan	$100k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 2.
Silverbulletday S	FG	16-Jan	$150k g	3yo f	8.32f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Sunshine Millions Classic	GP	16-Jan	$75k g	4&up S	9f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 3.
Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf	GP	16-Jan	$75k g	4&up f/m S	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 3.
Sunshine Millions Sprint	GP	16-Jan	$75k g	4&up S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 3.
Sunshine Millions Turf	GP	16-Jan	$75k g	4&up S	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Jan 3.
Aichi Hai (G3T)	JRA	16-Jan	$737k a	4&up f/m	10f	Turf	Closed on Dec 8.
Fire Plug S	Lrl	16-Jan	$100k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Geisha S	Lrl	16-Jan	$75k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Jennings S	Lrl	16-Jan	$75k g	4&up S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Spectacular Bid S	Lrl	16-Jan	$100k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
What a Summer S	Lrl	16-Jan	$100k g	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Xtra Heat S	Lrl	16-Jan	$100k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
California Cup Derby	SA	16-Jan	$200k g	3yo S	8.5f	Dirt	$100/Jan 7
California Cup Oaks	SA	16-Jan	$200k g	3yo f S	8f	Turf	$100/Jan 7
California Cup Sprint	SA	16-Jan	$150k g	4&up S	6f	Dirt	$100/Jan 7
Sunshine Millions Filly/Mare Turf Sprint	SA	16-Jan	$150k g	4&up f/m S	6f	Turf	$100/Jan 7
Unusual Heat Turf Classic	SA	16-Jan	$200k g	4&up S	9f	Turf	$100/Jan 7
Gasparilla S	Tam	16-Jan	#$125k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Pasco S	Tam	16-Jan	#$125k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Wayward Lass S	Tam	16-Jan	$50k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Ladies H	Aqu	17-Jan	$100k g	4&up f/m	9f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Keisei Hai (G3T)	JRA	17-Jan	$780k a	3yo	10f	Turf	Closed on Dec 8.
Nikkei Shinshun Hai (G2T)	JRA	17-Jan	$1,173k a	4&up	11f	Turf	Closed on Dec 8.
Astra S (G3T)	SA	17-Jan	$100k g	4&up f/m	12f	Turf	$100/Jan 7
Interborough S	Aqu	18-Jan	$100k g	4&up f/m	7f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 2.
Megahertz S (G3T)	SA	18-Jan	$100k g	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	$100/Jan 7
Smarty Jones S	OP	22-Jan	$150k g	3yo	8f	Dirt	$100/Jan 7
Jazil S	Aqu	23-Jan	$100k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	$100/Jan 9
Fred W. Hooper (G3)	GP	23-Jan	$125k g	4&up	8f	Dirt	$0/Jan 10
Inside Information S (G2)	GP	23-Jan	$200k g	4&up f/m	7f	Dirt	$0/Jan 10
La Prevoyante (G3T)	GP	23-Jan	$125k g	4&up f/m	12f	Turf	$0/Jan 10
Marshua's River S (G3T)	GP	23-Jan	$125k g	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	$0/Jan 10
Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1)	GP	23-Jan	$3,000k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	Not Available
Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1T)	GP	23-Jan	$1,000k g	4&up	9.5f	Turf	Not Available
William L. McKnight (G3T)	GP	23-Jan	$150k g	4&up	12f	Turf	$0/Jan 10
Fifth Season S	OP	23-Jan	$150k g	4&up	8f	Dirt	$0/Jan 7
Pippin S	OP	23-Jan	$150k g	4&up f/m	8f	Dirt	$0/Jan 7
Palos Verdes S (G3)	SA	23-Jan	$200k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	$100/Jan 14
Busanda S	Aqu	24-Jan	$100k g	3yo f	9f	Dirt	$100/Jan 9
American Jockey Club Cup (G2T)	JRA	24-Jan	$1,283k a	4&up	11f	Turf	Closed on Dec 8.
Tokai S (G2)	JRA	24-Jan	$1,135k a	4&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 8.
Clockers' Corner S	SA	24-Jan	$70k a	4&up R	6f	Turf	$0/Jan 14
Luke Kruytbosch S	TuP	28-Jan	$28k a	4&up	8f	Dirt	Not Available
City of Phoenix S	TuP	29-Jan	$28k a	4&up f/m	8f	Dirt	Not Available
Toboggan S (G3)	Aqu	30-Jan	$150k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	$150/Jan 16
Forward Gal S (G3)	GP	30-Jan	$100k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	$0/Jan 17
Holy Bull S (G3)	GP	30-Jan	$200k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Jan 17
Kitten's Joy S (G3T)	GP	30-Jan	$100k g	3yo	8f	Turf	$0/Jan 17
Swale S (G3)	GP	30-Jan	$100k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	$0/Jan 17
Sweetest Chant S (G3T)	GP	30-Jan	$100k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	$0/Jan 17
Darby's Daughter S	Hou	30-Jan	$75k g	3yo f R	5.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jun 1.
My Dandy S	Hou	30-Jan	$75k g	3yo c/g R	5.5f	Dirt	Closed on Jul 1.
American Beauty S	OP	30-Jan	$150k g	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$0/Jan 14
Martha Washington S	OP	30-Jan	$200k g	3yo f	8f	Dirt	$0/Jan 14
Robert B. Lewis S (G3)	SA	30-Jan	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	$100/Jan 21
San Marcos S (G2T)	SA	30-Jan	$200k g	4&up	10f	Turf	$100/Jan 21
San Pasqual S (G2)	SA	30-Jan	$200k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	$100/Jan 21
Jimmy Winkfield S	Aqu	31-Jan	$100k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	$100/Jan 16
Frontier Utilities Turf Sprint	Hou	31-Jan	$100k g	4&up	5f	Turf	$0/Jan 20
Houston Ladies Classic (G3)	Hou	31-Jan	$300k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Jan 20
Jersey Lilly Turf S	Hou	31-Jan	$75k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	$0/Jan 20
John B. Connally Turf Cup (G3T)	Hou	31-Jan	$200k g	4&up	12f	Turf	$0/Jan 20
Stonerside Sprint	Hou	31-Jan	$75k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	$0/Jan 20
Texas Turf Mile	Hou	31-Jan	$200k g	3yo	8f	Turf	$0/Jan 20
Negishi S (G3)	JRA	31-Jan	$780k a	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 22.
Silk Road S (G3T)	JRA	31-Jan	$808k a	4&up	6f	Turf	Closed on Dec 22.
Baffle S	SA	31-Jan	$75k a	3yo	6.5f	Turf	$0/Jan 21

This table contains all scheduled stakes races for North America and graded stakes races for the Japan Racing Association.

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Saturday, December 12.  The Fair Grounds in New Orleans holds their annual Louisiana Champions Day, which means 7 stakes races for thoroughbreds and 3 more for quarterhorses to start the day, meaning 10 stakes in all.  Fortunately, we got you covered for all of them with the Grid and some analysis.  Grab today’s free grid to follow along.

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We shall skip past the quarters since I know little to nothing about analyzing them, and the Grid knows more than I do.  Starting in race 5 we will have our first thoroughbred stakes race at about 3PM ET.  First post is at 1PM ET with a quarterhorse stakes.  The track is muddy and the turf is yielding so beware.

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R5 2:58ET 6f D LaLassieB100k 2 YO F

It’s hard to find much value in this one.  All the single digit fillies are winners, most of them first out.  The only value contenders are then 8-1 Tecate Time who was 3^rd in the La Cup Juve Fillies behind 4-1 Rue Lala.  Spirited Beauty 6-1 should contend in her return to dirt. The 3 double digit long shots, no shot.

Prediction:  5 1 6 8 3 2

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R7 3:56ET 6f D La LdiesSpB100k 3 UP FM

Not a lot more value here on the morning line, with no double digits listed for one, so you’ll have to wait for closer to post time.  Snowball 9-2 runs late but ends up in 1^st as in her last 3, including the La Cup FM, where she beat Our Lost Love 6-1 who could turn the tables as the only frontrunner in the race.  Mr. Al’s Gal 3-1 will be hard to beat pressing the pace.  Southern Beauty is the next best value at 8-1.

Prediction:  3 2 4 7 8 1

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R8 4:25ET 8.5f T La LadiesTB100k 3 UP FM

Short field of 7 and there may be scratches.  It’s all about Room to Finish in this one.

Prediction:  5 6 2 3 1

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R9 4:54ET 6f D LaSprintB100k 3 UP 

This field has 9 entries but the prime contenders seem fairly obvious again and are less than 5-1 on the morning line.  I like those 4 plus Win Ya Win and Silver Galaxy both at 12-1 to hopefully add spice and price.

Prediction:  4 2 1 9 8

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R10 5:23ET 6f D LaJuvenilB100k 2 YO 

Alas a double digit field of 12 so lots of choices and some value scattered around. Chu Chu’s Legacy will be hard to catch and I doubt his odds of 9-2 will hold up, and he’ll probably be the post time favorite, rather than Sir Wellington who’s very solid so far. Cohere at 8-1 is my 2^nd choice, and I always like winners first time out.  Ready for Love will run in race 13 KT’s Jilted Groom would have been about 8-1 coming off his debut, and now comes off a bad outing, but 30-1 is ridiculous.  Super long shot special alert.  Make sure you check out this year’s American Free Handicap for the top rated juveniles.

Prediction:  4 9 7 6 8 10  

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R11 5:52ET 8.5f T LaTurfB100k 3 UP 

It’s hard to go against top LP and power in a turf route, and those honors belong to Budro Talking 4-1 and the favorite Ninety One Assault.  Technically top LP belongs to Jax Man, but he’s also lowest in Power and he’s an alternate. There’s not a whole lot of speed so Sydster or Carlea’s Dream could hit as well as nice double digit dogs Afleet Ascent and Unrestricted. LSS alert.

Prediction:  2 9 8 5 6 1

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R12 6:21ET 9f D LaClassicB150k 3 UP 

My top 3 are the same as the ML and in basically the same order so that doesn’t bode well for prices. Sydster was cross entered but they wisely chose this race in which he’ll be the sole frontrunner.  Grand Luwegee and Jus Lively look good because of the lack of speed, and people apparently already forgot Mageez won his last 2 dirt races. 

Prediction:  8 7 4 3 6 5

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That’s it for the stakes racing.  In race 13, Fifty Protection had a strong 2^nd in his debut.  Brad Cox’s first timer will factor in for sure, but look for the other trainers with good Win/ITM numbers shown in the Grid.  There’s a reason we have those.  Thus endeth today’s lesson. Good luck!

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The Grid can be obtained for all your favorite tracks and races here.

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December 2020. The USA and Japan remain open for stakes racing. It’s too cold in Canada but Aqueduct is open.

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2020 December Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule North America and Japan

Race	Track	Date	Purse	Age/Sex	Dist	Surf	Fee, Due Date
Cigar Mile H (G1)	Aqu	05-Dec	$250k g	3&up	8f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
Demoiselle S (G2)	Aqu	05-Dec	$150k g	2yo f	9f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
Go for Wand H (G3)	Aqu	05-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m	8f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
Remsen S (G2)	Aqu	05-Dec	$150k g	2yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
Pan Zareta S	FG	05-Dec	$75k g	3&up f/m	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 21.
Gold Rush	GG	05-Dec	$75k g	2yo	8f	AW	Closed on Nov 26.
Claiming Crown Canterbury	GP	05-Dec	$90k g	3&up R	5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 8.
Claiming Crown Distaff Dash	GP	05-Dec	$90k g	3&up f/m R	5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 8.
Claiming Crown Emerald	GP	05-Dec	$95k g	3&up R	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 8.
Claiming Crown Express	GP	05-Dec	$75k g	3&up R	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 8.
Claiming Crown Glass Slipper	GP	05-Dec	$80k g	3&up f/m R	8f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 8.
Claiming Crown Iron Horse	GP	05-Dec	$75k g	3&up R	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 8.
Claiming Crown Jewel	GP	05-Dec	$150k g	3&up R	9f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 8.
Claiming Crown Rapid Transit	GP	05-Dec	$85k g	3&up R	7f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 8.
Claiming Crown Tiara	GP	05-Dec	$95k g	3&up f/m R	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 8.
Challenge Cup (G3T)	JRA	05-Dec	$815k a	3&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Oct 13.
Stayers S (G2T)	JRA	05-Dec	$1,247k a	3&up	18f	Turf	Closed on Oct 13.
Starlet (G1)	LRC	05-Dec	$300k g	2yo f	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Aug 27.
Maryland Juvenile	Lrl	05-Dec	$100k g	2yo c/g S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 26.
Maryland Juvenile Filly	Lrl	05-Dec	$100k g	2yo f S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 26.
Inaugural S	Tam	05-Dec	#$100k g	2yo	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
Sandpiper S	Tam	05-Dec	#$100k g	2yo f	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
Garland of Roses	Aqu	06-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
New York Stallion Series (Fifth Ave. Div.)	Aqu	06-Dec	$250k g	2yo f R	7f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
New York Stallion Series (Great White Way Div.)	Aqu	06-Dec	$250k g	2yo c/g R	7f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 21.
Champions Cup (G1)	JRA	06-Dec	$2,000k a	3&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Oct 13.
Magic City Classic	FG	11-Dec	$50k g	3&up S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 18.
Alex M. Robb S	Aqu	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up S	9f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 28.
Louisiana Champions Day Classic	FG	12-Dec	$150k g	3&up S	9f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 16.
Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile S	FG	12-Dec	$100k g	2yo S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 16.
Louisiana Champions Day Ladies Sprint S	FG	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 16.
Louisiana Champions Day Ladies Turf S	FG	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m S	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 16.
Louisiana Champions Day Lassie S	FG	12-Dec	$100k g	2yo f S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 16.
Louisiana Champions Day Sprint S	FG	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 16.
Louisiana Champions Day Turf S	FG	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up S	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 16.
Fort Lauderdale S (G2T)	GP	12-Dec	$200k g	3&up	9f	Turf	Closed on Nov 28.
Harlan's Holiday S (G3)	GP	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 28.
My Charmer	GP	12-Dec	$75k g	3&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 28.
Rampart S (G3)	GP	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m	8f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 28.
Sugar Swirl S (G3)	GP	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 28.
Chunichi Shimbun Hai (G3T)	JRA	12-Dec	$815k a	3&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Oct 27.
Soviet Problem S	LRC	12-Dec	$100k g	2yo f S	8f	Dirt	Not Available
FTBOA City of Ocala Florida Sire S	Tam	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 28.
FTBOA Marion County Florida Sire S	Tam	12-Dec	$100k g	3&up c/g S	7f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 28.
Bay Ridge S	Aqu	13-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m S	9f	Dirt	Closed on Nov 28.
Capella S (G3)	JRA	13-Dec	$717k a	3&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Oct 27.
Hanshin Juvenile Fillies (G1T)	JRA	13-Dec	$1,299k a	2yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Oct 27.
Steve Prather S	Zia	14-Dec	$50k g	2yo S	8.32f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 2.
Queens County	Aqu	19-Dec	$100k g	3&up	9f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 5.
Blushing K.D. S	FG	19-Dec	$75k g	3&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Dec 5.
Buddy Diliberto Memorial S	FG	19-Dec	$75k g	3&up	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Dec 5.
Letellier Memorial S	FG	19-Dec	$75k g	2yo f	6f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 5.
Richard R. Scherer Memorial S	FG	19-Dec	$75k g	3&up	5.5f	Turf	Closed on Dec 5.
Sugar Bowl S	FG	19-Dec	$75k g	2yo	6f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 5.
Tenacious S	FG	19-Dec	$75k g	3&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 5.
Mr. Prospector S (G3)	GP	19-Dec	$100k g	3&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Dec 6.
Via Borghese S	GP	19-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m	9.5f	Turf	Closed on Dec 6.
Turquoise S (G3T)	JRA	19-Dec	$717k a	3&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Oct 27.
Los Alamitos Futurity (G2)	LRC	19-Dec	$200k g	2yo	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on Aug 27.
Bobbie Bricker Memorial H	MVR	19-Dec	$75k g	3&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	$50/Dec 9
Joshua Radosevich Memorial S	MVR	19-Dec	$75k g	2yo S	6f	Dirt	$50/Dec 9
Asahi Hai Futurity S (G1T)	JRA	20-Dec	$1,410k a	2yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Oct 27.
King Glorious S	LRC	20-Dec	$100k g	2yo c/g S	8f	Dirt	Not Available
Jeffrey A. Hawk Memorial S	RP	20-Dec	$60k g	3&up	8.32f	Dirt	$0/Dec 7
Jim Thorpe S	RP	20-Dec	$70k g	3yo S	8f	Dirt	$0/Dec 7
Remington Springboard Mile	RP	20-Dec	$200k g	2yo	8f	Dirt	$0/Dec 7
She's All In S	RP	20-Dec	$75k g	3&up f/m	8.32f	Dirt	$0/Dec 7
Trapeze S	RP	20-Dec	$60k g	2yo f	8f	Dirt	$0/Dec 7
Useeit S	RP	20-Dec	$70k g	3yo f S	8f	Dirt	$0/Dec 7
Joseph E. "Spanky" Broussard Memorial S	FG	26-Dec	$75k g	3&up f/m	8.32f	Dirt	$0/Dec 12
Pago Hop S	FG	26-Dec	$75k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	$0/Dec 12
Woodchopper S	FG	26-Dec	$75k g	3yo	8f	Turf	$0/Dec 12
H. Allen Jerkens S	GP	26-Dec	$75k g	3&up	16f	Turf	$0/Dec 13
Tropical Park Derby	GP	26-Dec	$75k g	3yo	8.5f	Turf	$0/Dec 13
Tropical Park Oaks	GP	26-Dec	$75k g	3yo f	8.5f	Turf	$0/Dec 13
Hanshin Cup (G2T)	JRA	26-Dec	$1,344k a	3&up	7f	Turf	Closed on Nov 10.
Hopeful S (G1T)	JRA	26-Dec	$1,410k a	2yo	10f	Turf	Closed on Nov 10.
Allaire duPont (G3)	Lrl	26-Dec	$150k g	3&up f/m	9f	Dirt	$0/Dec 17
Anne Arundel County S	Lrl	26-Dec	$100k g	2yo f	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Dec 17
Dave's Friend S	Lrl	26-Dec	$100k g	3&up	7f	Dirt	$0/Dec 17
Gin Talking S	Lrl	26-Dec	$100k g	2yo f	6f	Dirt	$0/Dec 17
Heft S	Lrl	26-Dec	$100k g	2yo	6f	Dirt	$0/Dec 17
Howard County S	Lrl	26-Dec	$100k g	2yo	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Dec 17
Native Dancer S	Lrl	26-Dec	$100k g	3&up	9f	Dirt	$0/Dec 17
Willa On the Move S	Lrl	26-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m	7f	Dirt	$0/Dec 17
American Oaks (G1T)	SA	26-Dec	$300k g	3yo f	10f	Turf	$100/Dec 10
La Brea S (G1)	SA	26-Dec	$300k g	3yo f	7f	Dirt	$100/Dec 10
Lady of Shamrock S	SA	26-Dec	$75k a	3yo f	8f	Turf	$0/Dec 10
Mathis Brothers Mile (G2T)	SA	26-Dec	$200k g	3yo	8f	Turf	$100/Dec 10
Runhappy Malibu S (G1)	SA	26-Dec	$300k g	3yo	7f	Dirt	$100/Dec 10
San Antonio S (G2)	SA	26-Dec	$200k g	3&up	8.5f	Dirt	$100/Dec 10
Arima Kinen (G1T)	JRA	27-Dec	$6,000k a	3&up	12.5f	Turf	Closed on Nov 10.
Eddie Logan S	SA	27-Dec	$75k a	2yo	8f	Turf	$0/Dec 10
Robert J. Frankel S (G3T)	SA	27-Dec	$100k g	3&up f/m	9f	Turf	$100/Dec 10
Louisiana Futurity	FG	31-Dec	$100k e	2yo c/g S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Louisiana Futurity	FG	31-Dec	$100k e	2yo f S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Blue Norther S	SA	31-Dec	$75k a	2yo f	8f	Turf	$0/Dec 17

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Saturday, November 28.  Churchill Downs is hosting its unofficial annual juvenile day, with 12 races, all for 2yo’s in various categories, capped off by the Golden Rod G2 for fillies and Kentucky Jockey Club G2 for open 2yo’s.  

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Over 140 juveniles are initially entered in what will be a great racing day.  Connections will not only see how their 2yo’s measure up to the competition, but also evaluate their liking to Churchill Downs, both ultimately to see if they should steer back to Churchill for the first Saturday in May.

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We’re about to break down some of the key races, so grab today’s free grid and follow along.

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The Kentucky Jockey Club G2 at about 6pm features 9 horses with one coupled entry, 3 of which have their own in entries in the Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 1, which is still open until Sunday.  The 3 also ran in the BC Juvenile G1 earlier this month:  Keepmeinmind 3^rd, King Fury 7^th, and Sittin On Go 9^th.

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Not surprisingly, Keepmeinmind is the heavy morning line favorite, coming off by far his best career race, but he also had a smoking hot pace to run at from behind.  As you can see, there’s not a lot of speed in this race.  A pair of E6’s doesn’t usually dictate a torrid pace.

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In fact, Swill with the inside post and top EP rating could be a contender in deep stretch if they don’t pressurize him.  But it looks to set up best for King Fury, who got shuffled around in the BCJ and finished poorly.  Before that he won the Street Sense, beating two others in this field.

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After the obvious favorite, there are a lot of possibilities here, and it will come down to which horse steps up in class, what riders make the smart trip and pace calls, and who has the best trip. 

Best guess:   4 7 2 6 1/1a.  LSS 6. Definitely use the coupled entry, you get 2 for 1.

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The Golden Rod G2 at about 5PM has a similar theme, in that there is a very obvious first choice, the heavy morning line favorite, Simply Ravishing who is top 10 in the AFH, then it will come down to a lot of the same things mentioned above.  The big difference is there’s a lot of speed in this field of 10.

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Simply Ravishing 1-1 is the sole rep from the BCJF, where she finished 4^th after chasing around a moderate pace 2 lengths back after a bobbled start.  Today she should get a nice honest pace up front and does her best running late.  But you can see there’s only 1 filly with less than 5 Quirin points.

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That would be my 2^nd choice, and what will likely be the 2^nd public choice, Clairiere, so far a 1-race wonder, but it was a good win, and it tied her for 2^nd best PF in the field, coming from 5 lengths back to break maiden first asking.

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After that, it’s hard not to like Coach, who’s undefeated in 3, and Travel Column, also tied for the 2^nd best PF, albeit at sprint.  Both are at single digits and trained by Brad Cox, whose barn has been doing very well in Kentucky.  Farsighted 15-1 is my first long shot special and could surprise at this distance.  Lady Lilly also looks strong coming in at 15-1 ML. 

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Prediction:  8 6 3 5 4 1     LSS 4 1

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Race 3 is an OCM75kn1x starting at about 2PM and although the field is shortened to 7 after a scratch, it’s still quite interesting.  Scarred is the ML favorite and has an individual entry in Pool 1 after breaking maiden first out for Steve Asmussen, and ranks #9 in the initial Derby Double Dozen released this week.

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2^nd ML choice Hidden Stash broke maiden 3^rd try in impressive fashion, setting the high PF in this field while improving in the increased distance of 8.5f for Victoria Oliver.  Camp Hope won at first ask for Kenny McPeek at 8.5f here at Churchill, followed by a disastrous BCJ that we don’t know the reason for.  After that I like Cousin Larry to complete the super for Larry Jones in his first mile contest.

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The rest of the races have some nice big fields with lots of possibilities, and some first time starters sprinkled in of course, so it could be a good day for some long shot specials.  Pay attention to how the track plays out, win some big bucks, and most of all, enjoy the juvenile racing!

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Here are the full slate of picks including long shots specials (LSS).  

R1:  5 6 10 4 9 12                LSS 4 9 12

R2:  10 7                LSS 1 12 3 6

R3:  6 4 8 3           LSS 2

R4:  8 7 2 3           LSS 5 6

R5:  2 4 14 7         LSS  8 9 1

R6:  8 1 6 4 10 12                LSS 1 4 10

R7:  1 4 7 2 3 6     LSS 2 3 6

R8:  4 5 10 9 2 6                  LSS 10

R9:  8 6 3 5 4 1     LSS 4 1

R10:  10 1 11 2 6 4              LSS 1 11 2 4 3      SLSS 7

R11:  4 7 2 6 1/1A              LSS 6

R12:  9 7 10 11    LSS 6 3 4 5

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Get the Grid for all your favorite tracks right here.

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November 27, 2020.  Churchill Downs.  Yes, it was only 2.78 months ago that the 2020 Kentucky Derby was run, but it’s late in the year and time to start looking at the 2021 Kentucky Derby contenders.  This initial version of the Derby Double Dozen is here because Futures Pool 1 is running this weekend, and we already posted the Grid and some analysis for that earlier this week.

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This Double Dozen is yet another objective look at the contenders, but with expert judgment and analysis involved in the process, rather than just a purely statistical list like the American Free Handicap.  In short, it’s my take on the top Derby contenders right now.  Below the table is a brief explanation of the top 12.

2021 Kentucky Derby Double Dozen November 27 2020

Rk	Horse	Sire	Trainer	HiPf	Last	Race	Next Up
1	Life Is Good	Into Mischief	Baffert Bob	96	1st	MSW 57k DM Nov.22
2	Essential Quality	Tapit	Cox Brad H	96	1st	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6
3	Highly Motivated	Into Mischief	Brown Chad C	97	1st	Nyquist Stk Nov.6
4	Jackie's Warrior	Maclean's Music	Asmussen Steven M	96	4th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6
5	Keepmeinmind	Laoban	Diodoro Robertino	93	3rd	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6	KYJC G2 Nov.28
6	Dr. Schivel	Violence	Glatt Mark	96	1st	Del Mar Fut G1 Sep.7
7	Hot Rod Charlie	Oxbow	O'neill Doug	95	2nd	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6
8	Savile Row	Quality Road	Baffert Bob	88	1st	MSW 57k DM Nov.8
9	Scarred	Into Mischief	Asmussen Steven M	86	1st	MSW 85k CD Nov.5	OCM75k CD Nov.28
10	Fire At Will	Declaration Of War	Maker Michael J	92	1st	BC Juv Turf G1 Nov.6
11	Pickin' Time	Stay Thirsty	Breen Kelly J	89	1st	Nashua G3 Nov.8
12	Red Flag	Tamarkuz	Shirreffs John	90	1st	Bob Hope G3 Nov.15
13	Rombauer	Twirling Candy	Mccarthy Michael W	88	5th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6
13	Simply Ravishing	Laoban	Mcpeek Kenneth G	94	4th	BC Juv Fillies G1 Nov.6	Golden Rod G2 CD Nov.28
14	Reinvestment Risk	Upstart	Brown Chad C	93	10th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6
15	Speaker's Corner	Street Sense	Mott William I	89	1st	MSW 63k Bel Nov.11
16	King Fury	Curlin	Mcpeek Kenneth G	90	7th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6	KYJC G2 Nov.28
17	Caddo River	Hard Spun	Cox Brad H	91	1st	MSW 85k CD Nov.15
18	Hidden Stash	Constitution	Oliver Victoria	88	1st	MSW 70k Kee Oct.24	OCM75k CD Nov.28
19	Super Stock	Dialed In	Asmussen Steven M	91	2nd	Street Sense Oct.25
20	Ten For Ten	Frosted	Mcgaughey Claude Iii	89	2nd	Nashua G3 Nov.8
21	Sittin On Go	Brody's Cause	Romans Dale	89	9th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6	KYJC G2 Nov.28
22	Get Her Number	Dialed In	Miller Peter	87	1st	Am. Pharoah G1 Sep.26
23	Midnight Bourbon	Tiznow	Asmussen Steven M	86	3rd	Champagne G1 Oct.10

The first Derby Double Dozen for the 2021 Kentucky Derby as of November 27 2020

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1. LIFE IS GOOD!  Coming off his debut a week ago, where he registered the 2^nd best Grid PF of any contender in Pool 1.  One race wonder? Life is always good when the trainer is Bob Baffert and the sire is Into Mischief, a combination that won 2 of the last 3 editions of the Kentucky Derby.
2.  ESSENTIAL QUALITY.  The Brad Cox trainee is undefeated in 3, first breaking maiden at Churchill, then winning the Breeders’ Futurity G1, then the BC Juvenile G1.  He was ranked #1 before Baffert’s horse freaked out first out, and is probably 1 on most lists, and deservedly so.
3. HIGHLY MOTIVATED.  Chad Brown’s top contender set the high Grid PF mark last out while setting a track record at Keeneland on the first race of Breeders’ Cup Friday.  Into Mischief is looking good in the Future Sire wager this weekend, but we won’t get anywhere near the 17-1 we got last year.
4. JACKIE’S WARRIOR.  Only an idiot would give up on this one for one subpar race, which losing by 3 lengths in the BCJ by most wouldn’t be considered subpar.  But the high bar he set before that going undefeated in 4 including 2 Grade 1’s, makes it subpar.  He didn’t have the right trip in the crowded field and the pace was very fast. He’ll be back.
5. KEEPMEINMIND took another big step up in his 3^rd race finishing 3^rd in the BCJ after a strong 2^nd in the Breeders’ Futurity.  Great closing action 2 races in a row as evidenced by his top LP rating in the Grid.  Keep him in mind because he could improve again next out.
6. DR. SHIVEL has now won two in a row, including the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, which was only at 7f but it was still a win.  Mark Glatt announced he’s done enough this year and will race again next year sometime.  He’ll be off radar so now might be a good time to lock in the futures bet.
7. HOT ROD CHARLIE wasn’t on anyone’s radar after barely breaking his maiden fourth try at Santa Anita.  Then he got a fast pace up front in the BCJ and closed for a great 2^nd place at 94-1 for Doug O’neill, but in the end he got caught by the top dog.
8. SAVILE ROW is another one race wonder technically, but again his trainer is some guy named Baffert and he won easily enough at first asking and probably has more in the tank.
9. SCARRED is a one race wonder trained by Steve Asmussen, wherein he broke maiden easily at Churchill, where he will race again Saturday in an OCM75k, facing off with Hidden Stash at 8.5f.
10. FIRE AT WILL won the BC Juvenile Turf making his 3^rd consecutive win, a streak that began with an off turf run on the slop at Saratoga.  Michael Maker could put him back on dirt anytime.
11. PICKIN’ TIME has quietly put together 2 stakes wins including the Nashua G3, two days after the rest of the top juveniles ran at the Breeder’s Cup.  But he might be the best of the rest.
12. RED FLAG won the Bob Hope G3 for John Shirreffs the weekend after the BC, winning it easily and setting a good PF in the process.

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Keepmeinmind, King Fury, and Sittin On Go are all entries in Futures Pool 1, and are racing in the Kentucky Jockey Club G2 on Saturday.  Scarred is also running on Saturday in the OCM75k with Hidden Stash, who’s in the top 25 but not in the Pool. 

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So if you’re inclined to bet on one or more of those, maybe lock in your future bet on Friday, because if they win on Saturday, their futures odds will go down on Saturday and Sunday.  The rest of those listed, it’s usually best to just wait until Sunday and see what odds you get.

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Get the Grid for all your favorite tracks this weekend here.